Monday, June 6, 2016

Landmark ICM poll confirms the trend : Scotland is now at severe risk of being dragged out of the EU against its will

Unfortunately there's no ICM phone poll this week to help us work out whether the Leave lead last week was a complete fluke - so it may be a ComRes or Ipsos-Mori phone poll that eventually solves the mystery.  But as usual ICM do have an online poll, and it shows further movement towards Leave.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 43% (-1)
Leave 48% (+1)

On the face of it the changes are not statistically significant.  But last week's online poll showed a swing towards Leave that was much more modest than the one reported by the simultaneous phone poll, and if today's numbers had shown a reversion to the mean we might have concluded that nothing had really changed at all, at least as far as online polling is concerned.  So the significance of today's poll is that it instead reports a second consecutive swing to Leave, which can probably be taken as being more meaningful, especially as the 5% Leave lead is outside ICM's normal range - they've never previously shown Leave ahead by quite this much.  That seems even more important when you bear in mind that ICM recently made a Remain-friendly methodological adjustment to take account of the fact that Leave supporters are quicker to respond to survey invitations.  Without that tweak, it's possible that Leave would now be reported as being closer to 10 points ahead.

To summarise what the three online firms that have conducted fieldwork recently are showing -

* All three suggest a swing to Leave.

* ICM have Leave doing better than ever before.

* YouGov have Leave ahead by a bigger amount than since February, although the numbers wouldn't have looked out of the ordinary prior to that.

* Opinium (on their old methodology) have a Leave lead that is within the normal range, but at the upper end of it.

Taking all of that together with the ICM and ORB phone polls from last week, the evidence for a recent Leave breakthrough is reasonably convincing, but still not 100% conclusive.

An unnamed Leave source was quoted the other day as saying he wouldn't be confident of victory until his side were ahead by around 7 points, because none of the polls take into account Gibraltar and ex-pat Britons (they have a right to vote if they've been away for less than 15 years), and most of the polls (bizarrely) still don't take into account Northern Ireland.  Unless the result is a Wales 1997-style cliffhanger, it's probably safe to say that Gibraltar isn't going to make that much difference, because although it's likely to vote Remain by a massive margin, it has a population smaller than Dumfries.

Northern Ireland is more significant because it has 3% of the UK's population, but it's still unlikely to reduce the Leave lead (or increase the Remain lead) by more than around 1%.  It's ironic that we do expect NI to be such a strong region for Remain, because it's the one part of the UK where the head of government (Arlene Foster of the DUP) backs a Leave vote.  But the nationalist community will be overwhelmingly for Remain and the unionist community will be split - thus leading to a decent overall Remain advantage.

The ex-pat Brits are the real wild card.  They're impossible to poll, although it does seem reasonable to assume that many of them will be highly motivated to vote Remain, given that they arguably have more at stake than their compatriots at home.

Someone asked on an earlier thread whether the Scottish subsamples of Britain-wide polls still show a handsome Remain lead.  The answer is yes - the ICM subsample puts Remain ahead by 56% to 34%.  That's entirely typical of other subsamples and of the occasional full-scale Scottish polls we've seen.  We know this year of all years that nothing can be taken for granted (I'm looking at you, Kevin Williamson) but it has to be said the Scottish result does look reasonably predictable at the moment.  It's the UK part of the equation that's in the balance, and a few cynical souls might suggest that offers us some opportunities for tactical voting.  But of course I would never recommend such a thing, not so much because tactical voting isn't viable (in this particular case it probably is) but because the stakes are too high for all of us.

*  *  *

Our old friend "TSE" had a monumentally silly piece on Stormfront Lite earlier today, claiming that pro-European MPs were planning to "ignore the result of the referendum" (and moreover "set a precedent" for the SNP to ignore the result of a referendum!) because they want to keep Britain in the European single market in the event of Brexit.  I'm not sure TSE actually understands the referendum question we're about to vote on (or in many cases have already voted on by post) - it's solely about membership of the European Union, and doesn't even mention the single market.  It's perfectly possible to be part of the single market without being an EU member, and several countries are in exactly that position.  All that these MPs are doing (as I predicted they would in a blogpost on Saturday) is interpreting the referendum question literally - the notion that they're "reminding the electorate that referendums are advisory and not binding on parliament" is completely ludicrous.  If the British people vote to leave the European Union, the UK will leave the European Union, and I doubt if there's a single MP from any party who disputes that.

*  *  *

UPDATE (11pm) : We have a new phone poll from ORB, but if anything it's just muddied the waters further.  The headline numbers show the Remain lead effectively being wiped out...

Remain 48% (-3)
Leave 47% (+1)

...but those are the turnout-filtered numbers.  The unfiltered numbers actually show Remain bouncing back to a healthy 12-point lead (although admittedly even that is still well down on the 20-point gap ORB reported two weeks ago).

*  *  *

UPDATE II : And confusingly, yet another new YouGov poll tonight contradicts ICM by giving Remain their best result since three weeks ago -

Remain 43% (+2)
Leave 42% (-3)

So which is the misleading poll - this one, or the previous YouGov poll putting Leave 4 points ahead?  It could be that sampling variation is fooling us here, and that the truth is somewhere in the middle (ie. a Leave lead of one or two points).  Given what ICM are showing, it's hard to take the YouGov trend at face value and conclude that there has been genuine movement back to Remain - but you never know, of course.

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 44.3% (+0.4)
Leave 43.9% (+0.7)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 42.3% (+0.2)
Leave 43.7% (+0.4)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 46.3% (+0.6)
Leave 44.0% (+1.0)


(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last two weeks. The online average is based on nine polls - four from YouGov, two from ICM, one from TNS, one from Opinium and one from BMG. The telephone average is based on four polls - two from ORB, one from ICM and one from Survation.)

124 comments:

  1. Must be near the time when all the vows start to kick in !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Got a feeling that we are more likely to see the EU start playing hardball. Especially with regards to banking and finance.

      EU countries aren't just going to sit back and let London have an easy ride.

      Delete
  2. What exactly can the EU offer that doesn't contravene their principles?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I just don't think the EU is set up for "emergency bullshitting". Hard to see what a 'Vow' would look like or how it would come about.

      Delete
  3. I support the EU for the reason it was founded. Not for any economic by products it has since delivered. I support it for building peace and security. In memory of my family members who were murdered and for the sake of those still to be born.
    England's desire to leave and for the reason given so far indicate a direct threat to the peace and security the like of even Churchill hoped to build.
    That is why I am voting to stay in the EU. If it comes to it next I will vote for Scotland to be independent. Even if that were outside.
    Of all possibilities, OUT of the EU and still under the UK is the worst imaginable.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'm living in England and will vote leave in order to get that further referendum on Scotland future and if I lived in Scotland I would vote to remain. But if Scotland was Independent I believe the EU needs to be dismantled before it can be fixed so until then I would not want Scotland as a Independent country to join the EU. So at the moment I am very please with the out camp and hope they will succeed on the night.

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  5. The nightmare scenario is looking ever more likely a UK cast adrift from the EU ,Scotland at the mercy of a newly emboldened English right wing and nationalist movement at Westminster . The UK shall in effect become Greater England .

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 6, 2016 at 8:07 PM

      Rubbish absolutely nothing to do with right or left. Just decent people that want out of this corrupt gravy train. If we go we will start the domino effect. All those MEP'S in the dustbin of history.

      Delete
    2. "Rubbish absolutely nothing to do with right or left. Just decent people that want out of this corrupt gravy train. If we go we will start the domino effect. All those MP'S in the dustbin of history.". Fixed that for you, 23.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2June 6, 2016 at 8:32 PM

      Did you mean MSPs!

      Delete
    4. The UK is already just a greater England with a more colourful flag. Just by sheer weight of numbers.

      If Scotland was in the same position with 85% of the population, the UK parliament and monarchy in Edinburgh, and Scotland/UK seen as one and the same throughout the world, then I dare say the vast majority of Scots would be happy enough being British and waving an adapted union jack with a large saltire at the frontfront.

      Delete
    5. I meant what I posted, 23. We're not scrapping Holyrood and going back to what you consider the halcyon days of unthinking Labour lobby fodder.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 10:14 AM

      Well we should scrap the Holyrood gravy train. What is the point in having two Tory governments! Holyrood has made no improvement in the lives of Scots.

      Delete
    7. Really? How much did you pay the last time you needed a prescription?

      Delete
    8. Still waiting for an answer, 23. How much did you pay the last time you needed a prescription?

      Delete
  6. Those Vows and Love Bombs are getting a bit late now. It is looking too late already. I guess the EU Civil Servants don't feel as if EU is under any threat at all either. Could it be they just don't give a shit at the end of the day? The BBC will be having a total hissy.

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  7. the brexit referendum is English business and what's more tory on tory. Whichever the outcome it will stir up a constitutional hornet's nest https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/01/18/what-does-it-mean-to-be-irish/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. sorry - wrong link - please forgive!! here's the right one!!
      https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/06/05/post-brexit-bye-bye-uk/

      Delete
    2. Hi Anonymous,Just read post,interesting.On your blog banner you spelled public with a K (publick).

      Delete
    3. It's an adaptation of a quotation from Jonathan Swift. They spelled things funny in the 17th/18th century.

      Delete
    4. Sorry, should have made clear I'm not the same anonymous that posted/wrote the link/blog.

      Delete
    5. here's Anonymous 1 back - glad you enjoyed the post John. Thanks to my namesake Anonymous 2 for explaining the Jonathan Swift connection.

      Delete
  8. Glasgow Working Class 2June 6, 2016 at 10:05 PM

    The joke Nat sis will beg to stay in the Union if we Brexit. Scotland outside the EU and the Union and on its own. Looks like pre 1707 poverty. But at least we will be free fae the English. Give me poverty any time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't eat all your crayons at once, 23. The Dreary Heil has a letters page that needs filling.

      Delete
  9. A Remain Win = No Indyref 2.0

    George Stewart

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    Replies
    1. A Remain Win = that particular trigger for Indyref2 isn't tripped.

      The only way Indyref2 won't happen is if the people of Scotland don't want it.

      Delete
    2. IndyRef2 will not happen until the SNP think it's a slam-dunk win. Anything else would be extremely foolish.

      Delete
  10. Scotland's decision on Scotland's Independence should never have been made contingent on how another country votes about their future.

    This is a large mistake by the SNP and only plays into the dependency narrative that the Scots electorate have been subjected to for as long as I can remember by the the UK parties and their home grown mini mes.

    The SNP should be fighting this psychological straightjacketing tool, not encouraging it. It's a gamble and a mistake, especially if they are intent on playing the 'long game' to Independence.

    However, Long or short game, Scots need to be encouraged to see their own priorities as a nation as paramount, and certainly NOT contingent on the whims of a much larger neighbours interests!

    Why is this so difficult?

    braco

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 12:03 AM

      However why would Scotland who has had a relationship with its neighbour and moreso inter marriage give it away to the EU mainly on the grounds that some Nat sis hate the English even those who had grannies shagged by an Englishman. The Nat si case is based on predudice and the hatred of English.
      If you nutters could just be honest.

      Delete
    2. Your case is based on hatred of the SNP. You're not a proper Brexiteer, dearie, you're being led around by your hatred.

      Delete
    3. I agree with what you are saying Braco, but at the same time the Scottish Government are just saying the obvious; it would be a travesty for democracy if Scotland was to be forced out against its will.

      Anyway, does look like England may vote for a completely plan-free, leaderless, main parties horrifically divided, rUxit. I'm sure that will work out swimmingly. Once someone has worked out what it is they plan to work out, and who's going to work it out exactly. Then folk vote work that out too and vote in elections for it.

      A brexit to a planned e.g. EFTA status led by a popular UK equivalent of the SNP could be a sensible move for voters down south, even some here if it contained devo max stuff. However, we're seeing a madness protest vote developing down south and one mother of a clusterfuck coming.

      Anyway, might all lead to England (+Wales possibly) going for indy from Scotland + N. Ireland, so no need for us to bother with another iref. I mean if it's England going, we don't get a choice, just like they didn't in 2014.

      Delete
    4. Great comments about the mini-mes mentality among the SNP - of course it's the cringeworthy cringe at work again even in the Indy camp. The sub-text of the SNP's uncritical mania for the EU is that EU membership would have confirmed all of the benefits of the Union with England but with 'indepdence lite' (pish about a joint currency, the Queen etc). If Iceland can be a genuinely independent nation why the fuck can't Scotland.

      It's really dumb politics for the SNP to give tacit endorsement to Project Fear type arguments in the context of Brexit but then to deny them in the context of the Union. If it is 'too risky' for the UK to be a sovereign entity what the hell does that imply about Scottish independence?

      As a independence supporter I wish the SNP would actually engage their brains!

      Delete
    5. They have engaged their brains and to be at the mercy of the right wing Tories after a Brexit is something that would not be very pleasant.

      Delete
    6. Actually the face of Unionism becoming more right-wing will boost the sense that Scotland and the rest of the UK are radically diverging politically thus increase support for independence. Ever intelligent supporter of Scottish independence (count me in) should be relaxed about Brexit. Indeed welcome it. I loathe uncritical acceptance of what the SNP say as wise, good and the truth with a capital T.

      Delete
    7. If there was actually a plan for a Brexit Britain, even just a rough one, I might have given it some consideration. At the moment, all I know is the leavers want to take down the UK PM and government if they win. That will work out well ahead of difficult international negotiations I imagine.

      Delete
  11. The bottom line is remain in a healthy position? Absolutely No

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  12. James the answer is to do a weighted average of the back to back yougov polls

    ReplyDelete
  13. I see Pol Pot is polluting this thread, yet again. He prefers the lies of the Labour Party or socialists generally, who have become some sick little bunny rabbits, who belive that the status quo ante is the answer to all our dreams. Electing Labour Politicians to the Lords, pfft! Electing liars and cheats, c.f. Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and the rest of that crew of duplicitous fools?

    Pfft! To that too.

    Supporting self serving politicians that lie to us is your stock in trade. I can only assume you are paid for writing shit, because no-one could believe what you say.

    Off topic, I'll be interested to see what Chilcot has to say, there has been a certain, 'circling of the waggons' going on and, hopefully, that is not for naught.

    GWC2, I want to smash the link to a corrupt government at Westminster. You do not.

    You, sir, are, as always, on the wrong side of the arguement, fed by a complete misunderstanding of why, just why, your side of the arguement won a Phyrric victory.

    Claiming a victory that founded a loss is probably what you do. Doesn't mean you'll win any future fight, indeed it probably means you are desperate enough to claim language as a media for control.

    Well, Pol Pot, who was a mass murderer and a liar and a Socilist seems to be your voice on here. Nat sis is nothing compared to the things so-called socialists have done in the name of socialism.

    You want me to list them for you, GWC2?

    You are unworthy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 1:49 AM

      Pol Pot had supporters in Britain before his excesses were exposed. You are clearly on the Lannie this morning. Do enjoy.

      Delete
    2. Douglas, I respectfully disagree with your point about 23 being paid for his drivel. He's daft enough to post his witterings without remembering to ask for a pay cheque.

      Delete
  14. For anyone with an open mind please watch this video it explains a lot www.brexitthemovie.com

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I lasted until Nigel '#The2%' Farage came on.

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    2. Closed minds made that video.

      Delete
    3. The video provides an excellent technical description on how the EU Government is organized and operates.

      Most British do not have a clue as to how it operates which is clear by the experiment, "Can you recognize these five men?"

      @Marcia and @Scot Skier, do you know who your MEP is? Have they had a surgery?

      @LabourLeave is creating a video, do you think they have closed minds? Please try to at least watch that.

      Cheers, George Stewart

      Delete
    4. I know who my MEP's are as there are no local MEP's anymore as they are Scotland wide. One MEP has his office & surgery just up the road from me, Ian Hudghton. Have a nice day.

      Delete
  15. The trolls' case is based on predjudice and hatred of Europeans. If only the nutter would be honest.

    ReplyDelete
  16. "Given what ICM are showing, it's hard to take the YouGov trend at face value and conclude that there has been genuine movement back to Remain."

    But the Orb poll is essentially backing up YouGov. The reality may well be a blippish move to 'Leave' thanks to the immigration hysteria (something I find it hard to stomach that Scot Goes Pop can relish) with an underlying truth of very little movement at all. I know 'Scot Goes Pop' has a hereditary aversion to YouGov (Kellner and the IndyRef) but feel here that (unusually I accept) it is colouring your analysis a bit. ICM your gold standard actually did very badly in the UK general election. Almost worst of all the main polls.

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    1. The "immigration hysteria" is that immigration should be controlled based on the needs of the UK and determining who comes in should not be placed on a persons accidental place of birth.

      Why is the NHS "filled" with nurses from Spain? Its filled with white Spanish nurses because a nurse trained in Jamaica can not get a visa to come to the UK.

      I am British, my family was not, ergo we are a non-EU family under UK law. We went through hell for me to simply come home and bring my family!! Had I been Austrian, it would have been no problem and not a single fee.

      My family has seen too closely the ugly side of the British immigration system.

      Yes, I and some may have immigration "hysteria" and the hysteria is we believe a child born in Kingston Jamaica should have an equal chance coming to the UK has a child born in Bucharest.

      George Stewart

      Delete
    2. 'I am British'

      I'm not sure you really needed to state this; it was quite obvious.

      Delete
  17. As an expat living in Cyprus, taking a straw poll of friends who intend to vote the overall consensus was to vote to leave. Maybe the Gibraltarians have security issues. As a footnote most of the expats are of an older persuasion and normally tory voters.

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    Replies
    1. @James, you make a bad assumption on expats whuch stuart muir rightly points out.

      I can state with reasonable certainty having been an expat that dependent on where you are an expat will determine your view on this issue.

      Expats in America are likely to consider remaining in the EU of no value to them and a loss of sovereignty, ergo they are influenced by the climate of where they live. Brit Expats in USA do not equal Brit Espats in Spain.

      Further Brit Expats in Commonwealth countries have likely heard of what has become a shut down in UK immigration from the Commonwealth whilst unskilled Eastern Europeans have easy entry rights.

      Cheers, George Stewart

      Delete
    2. While this might be true, I expect British migrants in EU countries to be more motivated to vote than other British migrants.

      Delete
  18. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 10:07 AM

    Scotland was dragged into the Common Market courtesy off Ted Heath a blue Tory. Remember all the lefties screamin Heath Out! Now you Nat si benefit seekers adore him.

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    Replies
    1. And why would Scotland be dragged into anything against its will? A lack of self government perhaps?

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 10:19 AM

      In case it has not entered yer heid Scots voted to stay in the Union and the Union joined the Common Market. You Jock sponging Nat sis want yer cake from whoever you can crawl tae.

      Delete
    3. It obviously hasn't entered your heid that Britain joined the Common Market in 1973 and the Independence Referendum took place in 2014.

      I think your original point was that Scotland was taken in against its will by Ted Heath. My point was that in 1973 what say did Scotland have in how it was goverened? The answer is zero.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 10:53 AM

      The British people had no say in 1973.

      Delete
    5. Dunderheid 23 has obviously forgotten the Remain vote in 1975. He re-edits history in his own mind to suit his sub-Spanneresque ravings.

      Delete
    6. My point was that in 1973 what say did Scotland have in how it was goverened? The answer is zero.

      How so? If your point is that Scotland is outweighed by the rest of the country, you might as well say that London has no say in how it gets governed. Or Yorkshire. Or you and I.
      It's a democracy, we're all outnumbered. That's kind of the point.

      The parliament of an independent Scotland would be completely and utterly dominated by the Central Belt. Does that mean it's undemocratic for the North East and the Isles? Are they disenfranchised? It's a silly argument.

      Delete
    7. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 5:08 PM

      Harold Wilson gave us a vote in1975 after Heath had joined without giving us a
      Vote
      And it was supposed to be just a trade deal not a gravy train for criminals and politicians. Seems you do not have a clue about history 48.

      Delete
    8. You miss my point anon. The UK is supposed to be a Union of two kingdoms, two equal partners. Scotland was a sovereign nation at one time, Yorkshire was not. If the largest nation simply steamrollers the other, then it is not a Union but a takeover.

      Delete
    9. Scotland was a sovereign nation at one time, Yorkshire was not.

      It very much was, and on several different occasions to boot.

      Delete
    10. As a Celtic tribal region and a Danish kingdom, yes but not recognisable as a modern county in a larger state. You and most Unionists equate Scotland with an English county, that is what I am taking issue with. Fine perhaps for the cricket.

      Delete
  19. A Brexit may just turn out to be the SNP's worst nightmare. They aren't ready for a second referendum. The economic case isn't there and being inside Europe makes little sense when our closest neighbours are on the outside (hard border / tariffs). It also looks reckless of the SNP to pile constitutional uncertainty on top of constitutional uncertainty by demanding a second referendum.

    At the very least, a 'bedding in' period would be required for post EU Britain. Say, five years. If at the end of that period Scots wish to swap UK for EU then all they have to do is elect a pro independence majority at Holyrood.

    Aldo

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    1. If there is a leave vote, then it would be wise to wait and see how the border between N Ireland and the Republic would change.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 10:58 AM

      Why would it be wise? It is just a border after all. If you cross at Newry the hard shoulder changes.

      Delete
    3. One of the main aims of the Brexit campaign is to introduce stricter controls on immigration, so unless Eire follows suit then that would mean a change to the Common Travel area. Or surely Boris and co won't renege on a promise?

      Delete
    4. Aldo, seems however things change, it's all good for the Union. Not what you were saying a few short weeks ago.. but whatever helps calms you. ;-)

      braco

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    5. The Common Travel Area was in place long before the EU, the issue of the Irish border is a straw man argument.

      George Stewart

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    6. I accept that but it won't stop unionists trotting out the old "You'll have to show you passport at Gretna" garbage. Ed Miliband tried that in September 2014.

      Delete
    7. Most people couldn't give a shit about a passport at Gretna even if that did come to pass. Only about 0.36% of the population cross the border regularly. I've been twice in 10 years and I travel globally with work a fair bit. There's no obvious need to got to back and forth to England a lot for most Scots. And vice versa.

      http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2010/12/17120002/162

      Delete
  20. As long as the rancid so-called united kingdom continues to disintegrate that's the main thing.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Scotland is NOT in any way at severe risk of being dragged out of the EU against its will. Come the 23rd, REMAIN will get at least 55 - 56%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You sure about that? You may be right but I wouldn't put money on it that you can't afford to lose.

      Delete
    2. My Tardis is bigger than your Tardis.

      Delete
    3. I've got 50 quid on at very good odds ;-)

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    4. What odds did you get? £50 seems a bit measly if you're so sure.

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    5. Were you behind their voter registration site going down then?

      Delete
  22. Interesting aside as regards the UK being Greater England. I had to drive down to England on Sunday and we stopped for lunch in Corbridge. A very nice pub called the Golden Lion, does excellent Sunday roasts. We asked to be seated outside as it was a lovely day, and someone was using a hose to water flower tubs right beside our table. The landlord said, "plants need an awful lot of watering in the UK." (I don't think my companion heard exactly what he said or she'd have reacted. I just puzzled it over.)

    At first I wondered if he thought we were actually from abroad. But then, most bits of "abroad" have even drier summers than Northumberland. I realised he must have heard us speak for long enough to peg us as Scots. I mean, it was Northumberland, not Devon.

    He was referring to England as "the UK" to visitors from Scotland, in an exclusionary way, as if Scotland wasn't the UK. There was nothing intentional in it, no hidden meaning, no agenda. It was just how he used the term.

    Huh?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. I think it's just a thing you get when people are so ingrained in being the majority. I go down to the Central Belt very regularly and by the way some of my relatives act you'd think the rest of Scotland didn't exist.

      Delete
    2. But to refer to "the UK" as if it was something distinct from Scotland, to people from Scotland - that's just weird.

      Delete
  23. How did the more recent ORB & Yougov polls show the state of play between Remain & Leave - Anyone heard ??? Anyone ?

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  24. If the English vote to leave the EU good on them they have shown some balls, we Scots choked when we had the chance, says a lot really!

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    Replies
    1. Given the main argument being used by Leave seems to be 'Watch out! The scary Turks are coming!', I'm not sure they are as macho as you make out.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 11:11 PM

      There is no private rented hovel homes left in Govanhill for the Turks but you being an expert on everything must have a housing plan. Maybe the middle and upper class Scots will build tent city in their gerdens. All the multis are being pulled down in Glesga. So man with a plan let us hear it.

      Delete
    3. Still waiting for an answer, 23. How much did you pay the last time you needed a prescription?

      Delete
  25. The ultimate aim of the whole exercise is not to determine whether we leave or stay in the EU. It is to determine which wing of the Tory party screws us for the next four years.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 11:13 PM

      And which wing of the Yellow Tories you may add.

      Delete
    2. No, you may not, 23. Still waiting for an answer, by the way. How much did you pay the last time you needed a prescription?

      Delete
  26. Glasgow Working Class 2June 7, 2016 at 11:55 PM

    Glasgow East End Stepps Area who voted in a Nat si turned into a war zone. NHS waiting times up. Education failure. Cuts to council services. Scots drinkin more bevvy. And all this after years of Nat si Tartan Tory rule.

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    Replies
    1. I've just remembered that under Labour, Scotland was an earthly paradise. Thanks so much for reminding us. Let the spirit of Willie Ross arise!

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 8, 2016 at 1:22 AM

      The Nat sis are in power not Labour. You barraload off excrement were supposed tae make a difference. Aye.

      Delete
    3. Still waiting for an answer, 23. How much did you pay the last time you needed a prescription?

      Delete
  27. Things are moving fast 'Britain / UK' increasingly dispensed with, and instead cut to the heart of the matter.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36471787

    The PM said there were "good and bad ways" to control immigration but warned against a "Little England" stance...

    ...Addressing the same audience, Mr Cameron said he was frustrated by the EU but this was not a justification for walking away, saying he wanted to lead a country that was a "fighter not a quitter".

    "The right thing to do ... is not take the Little England option of Nigel Farage," he said.


    Quite something to watch. A Brexit vote is nowe, for all to see, one for 'England'.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 8, 2016 at 1:29 AM

      Skier, you Nat sis moan when the majority of Scots voted Naw and when a minority of Scots vote to get out of the corrupt EU you moan. When will you Nat sis stop being world moaning champions. You wid bring a tear tae a gless eye. If moanin was a sport we would qualify.

      Delete
    2. Still waiting for an answer, 23. How much did you pay the last time you needed a prescription? I will stay on you like Paxman on Michael Howard if I have to...

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2June 8, 2016 at 5:19 PM

      You will not get on me to be even thinking of staying Nat si bhoy. How much does your billionaire donator pay for his prescription. I would prefer to pay but it is free I can afford it. Tax the rich you pretend Nat si leftie. Now go away and get on with your ding a ling choking.

      Delete
    4. Apparently, that's a raw nerve for our pretend socialist. Did you donate the cost of your last prescription, since you can afford it?

      Delete
  28. Notice how the EU government isn't relentlessly bullying and threatening people in the UK into voting Remain on June 23rd.

    Where are the threats that you won't be able to trade £'s for Euros? Where are the headlines about walls and border guards? Where are the joint heads of state agreements on no UK-EU trade deals post Brexit?

    #revealing

    ReplyDelete
  29. Latest full Scotland EUref poll from TNS-BMRB

    71(+1)% Remain / 29(-1%) Leave ex DK.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seems like the Leave camp aren't making much ground in Scotland.

      Delete
  30. On the phone at work, so can't find the link, but Britain Elects Twitter had an in the event of Brexit poll /Scots indy and we were behind in it something like 38/48.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 5/8 of these have been pro-indy I understand.

      Anyway, it's not a vote for a Brexit on the 23rd of June that will end the UK. Polls have never shown a huge swing to Yes in the even of this result alone.

      It's the mother of a UK political, economic and constitutional shitstorm that follows. Or follows in the even of a narrow Remain.

      Delete
  31. High level of don't knows in the TNS polling which could indicate a shy leave vote......

    ; )

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TNS called Holyrood May 16 supremely well in their campaign period run of polls. The forward projection to 47% SNP is spot on; tories and Libs heading up to their final scores too. I even warned some people that a majority was not guaranteed at all when I saw this. There is a delay with TNS making data older. However, this latest result does suggest a whopping Remain on a high turnout is likely in Scotland.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 8, 2016 at 6:09 PM

      Because of the handouts and dependency culture.

      Delete
    3. Did you donate the cost of your last prescription, since you can afford it?

      Delete
    4. Simon Pia = Glasgow Working Class 2

      Delete
    5. I disagree, Chalks. Pia at least spell checks before publishing his right-wing polemics. 23, on the other hand, lacks even that capacity.

      Delete
    6. Not that you're creepily obsessed with him or anything... he's a board troll, and he'd be less noticeable and disruptive if you didn't reply to every single frigging post he makes, and usually with the same copy/paste reponse.

      All you do is double the spam.

      Delete
    7. Simon Pia or GWC2?

      Delete
  32. Glasgow Working Class 2June 8, 2016 at 5:27 PM

    Anon fash bhoy Nat si I am on my way tae London tae campaign for Brexit. If we get rid of this of bunch of bloodsucking pariahs then Holyrood next. I would pull Holyrood doon and build the Brewery.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The nutter is drunk again.

      Delete
    2. Pissed again because Cameron is trying to rig the EU vote. Must have really hit you hard in the baws the voter registration site going like that and your glorious leader Cameron in a panic to get through some emergency Laws to get those Stay votes registered in time old chap.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2June 8, 2016 at 11:16 PM

      Chinge yer drawers Edna/Anon. The stench is unbearable.

      Delete
    4. That stink is your own hypocrisy, dearie. Did you donate the cost of your last prescription to charity, since you can afford it?

      Delete
    5. Have fun bootlicking for Boris and Nigel in the quantum singularity, 23.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2June 9, 2016 at 7:48 PM

      Camp pain going well, oops. Looks like the Brits have woken up tae this corrupt bunch off shit called the EU. Scottish Nat sis not campaigning at all. Keeping their options open. Who will subsidise them! Real Sumbags screwing the working class from any angle.

      Delete
    7. He is still drunk.

      Delete
  33. Glasgow Working Class 2June 10, 2016 at 12:30 AM

    And you will wake up ugly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just like you perchance?

      Delete
  34. Time to get a new post up James. This one has degenerated into the usual run of semi-obscene comments from GWC and those who are stupid enough to answer him

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Frankly Pol Pot is simply stupid. Someone once said that a lie will travel around the world before the truth has got it's boots on. Pol Pot probably wears slippers and he can't even get them on before his lies and propoganda are demolished.

      Perhaps he thinks we are better in the UK because an independent Scotland would have to suffer him more. It is the only positive case against independence that I can think of.

      Delete