Friday, May 6, 2016

In one sense, a pretty good result - and in another sense, an absolutely ideal result

Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at the International Business Times, about how the SNP's narrow failure to secure an overall majority hasn't significantly diminished the chances of a second referendum, and how the Tories' success may make independence considerably more likely in the long run.  You can read the article HERE.

54 comments:

  1. teeth in the glassMay 6, 2016 at 6:53 PM

    Possibly it wont.Well maybe it will if some of the new tories are as challenged as the now departed James Kelly.

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    1. Alas he is still there as he won a list seat.

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    2. teeth in the glassMay 6, 2016 at 8:43 PM

      Aye.I noticed later he'd knuckle dragged his way back in the back door via the list vote. Just goes to show the depth of the Labour talent pool.

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  2. What a sensible and sober article! It should be read by certain other bloggers who advocated SNPx2 and are now carrying on as if it's 19/09/14 all over again.

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  3. The spinning here is out of control - there is NO mandate for another ref as no party campaigned on introducing the legislation. Win an election on an unequivocal yes/no vote and then, yes, you have a mandate to ask the question. As it stands, the SNP was frightened of polarising the contest in that way and came up with an indyref2 stance so convoluted that it is all but meaningless.

    I would put money on NO ref for the entirety of this parliament which suits me just fine - SNP now has to contend with the third term curse without a majority (and without the dominance of the parliamentary committees)

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    1. Listen muppet. It was listed in the manifesto and if it aligns again and the public want, they'll get it. That's democracy.

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    2. 69 Pro-independence MSP's elected yesterday. That is a majority.

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    3. "third term curse" LOL

      Dude, it's Scotland not America, or even the UK! And the opposition are the tories. They didn't magically become popular. They nabbed 2nd due to the collapse of Slab and the Ian Murray wing voting Tory.

      Ruth Davidson and her new Tory pals in Holyrood are defined by their Yoon hackery and trolling. Ruth spent half the campaign running away from Tory UK while embracing the Orange Order. Unless Cameron and Osborne pulls back on their dickishness and transparent attempts to screw Scotland, Ruth is gonna have a hard time defending herself against Nicola Sturgeon for the next five years.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2May 6, 2016 at 9:26 PM

      Sturgeon will be wearing her incontinence drawers come the next election with all the pish the Nat sis talk. All talk about the poor and justice but ensuring the rich rake in the dosh and pay as little tax as possible. Nat si yellow Tory scumbag hypocrites.

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    5. Some countries have legislated against trolling. In the U.K., section 127 of the Communications Act 2003 says it is an offence to send messages that are "grossly offensive or of an indecent, obscene or menacing character." Several people have been jailed under its provisions.

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    6. Don't feed the troll, folks.

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  4. James, now the election is over, next topic is Eurovision. France looks like the favourite.

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  5. James, Good article and I believe you are correct in most aspects. However I don't think SLab can win votes by going for a constitutional middle ground. That ship has sailed its either stay with unionism and never be relevant again or switch to Independence and start appealing to the third of voters they lost post the referendum

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  6. Meanwhile, Plaid replace the Tories as the main opposition in Wales and Goldsmith is annihilated in London. All in all, not a bad day of results.

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  7. I very much agree with your point as to the long-term implications of this result. Scottish politics is now 'Ulsterised' with the national question being the primary determinant of voting choices. that means that 'third term curses' are not inevitable as they would be in a more conventional left-right system.

    Long-term of course, the Tories are the now the face of unionism in Scotland and will have the responsibility of winning any future independence referendum. The big question is now what happens to the Labour 'soft unionists' - Henry McLeish, Kezia Dugdale - in the event of a Brexit.

    In my opinion we are looking at independence within 5-15 years.

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    1. Or next month?

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    2. I think Brexit has a less than 50% chance of happening. Even if it did happen, I don't think the pro-independence majority in parliament will move to a 2nd referendum right away.

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  8. The SNP must now start nailing Davidson for her Conservatism: i.e. the record of the despicable Tory government in Westminster. There's plenty of ammunition.

    They must also start articulating a vision for an Independent Scotland, strong on social justice, equality, fairness etc.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 6, 2016 at 9:12 PM

      The Nat sis need nailed for compliance with Tory policies.

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    2. Some countries have legislated against trolling. In the U.K., section 127 of the Communications Act 2003 says it is an offence to send messages that are "grossly offensive or of an indecent, obscene or menacing character." Several people have been jailed under its provisions.

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    3. Don't feed the troll, folks.

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  9. Aah James. Genius. I forgot that their surge was the same as ours. After the referendum. I feel so much happier. They are full of yessers too.

    Onwards and upwards.

    Oh and I have an idea for a fundraiser. If you will guarantee to invest in software to block all those trolling wanks I will guarantee to contribute £100. Fuck them. We ARE going to see our independence day. Right on timetable too.

    Thank you.

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    1. Put me down for £100 too, James. I check your blog at least twice a day, because of both your incisive comments and those of the majority of respondents. Accordingly, I'd be happy to assist you to move to a platform that would enable you to defenestrate the resident monkeys. I can count on one hand the number of meaningful posts that these village idiots have made, since I started following you. Please consider a crowd funding effort, because these plonkers take away much of the enjoyment of your readers.
      Alex Birnie

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  10. Excellent article James.
    It looks like the 50% bonus hysteria period has come to an end.

    I'd be interested to know what your view is on those SNP supporters who voted Green on the list is now that the votes are counted and the seats allocated.
    (Although obviously it changes nothing to know now, and it would be impossible to know in advance.)

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  11. Excellent article James

    Your work is hugely needed, even more so in this next stretch.

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  12. Good stuff James. I really feel now that Labour in Scotland have nowhere to go and they may begin to feel that support for Independence will get them back in the game!!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 6, 2016 at 8:58 PM

      Labour will not turn to petty nationalism. You Nat sis may have power in Scotland but the Union is now more intact. You have no chance of enforcing another referendum until at least the next election.
      But in the meantime you Nat sis could rid youselves of Tory policies raise taxes and help the poor.

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    2. How did UKIP do out of interest?

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    3. Unfortunately they got pumped as usual. An opposition led by the Tories and backed up by Mad Davie was too much to hope for.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2May 6, 2016 at 9:37 PM

      Aye Skier a litte diversion from your disappointment. The Union vote screwed you lot again. At least seven years you will have to wait. The Nat sis can plod on managing the grant from the British taxpayer and continue to moan with their hard done tae stories. Yawn.

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    5. The Scots are British, so British taxpayer also includes Scottish taxpayers.

      If you don't like George Osborne's budgets, who do you complain about? There's no point moaning about Nicola Sturgeon, given it's Georgie Boy that controls the purse strings.

      By your logic, Jeremy Corbyn shouldn't moan about the disabled being hard done tae by Georgie Boy either. Or perhaps he should start blaming Sturgeon too?

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    6. Glasgow Working Class 2May 6, 2016 at 10:16 PM

      Gregory old chap the Scottish government have powers to tax and raise a few bob extra for services. Osborne is not an issue now. Do you want to pay a few bob more in tax Gregory? I do I can afford it. I assume you will not respond.

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    7. Don't feed the troll, folks.

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    8. Why should we be mugged twice? Mugged by Westminster and then when we complain about the lack of our own money coming back to us, they say "here, you can also mug your own people."

      Wake up and smell the coffee.

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  13. Interesting article. As Ruth herself basically admitted, she advertised herself as an SNP basher. I hadn't twigged that's now put her in a box she'll find it difficult to escape from.

    Without the SNP, she has nothing with which to define herself. She only has a purpose as long as the SNP is in power. If the SNP ever evaporate away, her reason for existing evaporates too.

    Would be nice to point that out to Ruth - she's only a "success" because of the SNP.

    Ruth Davidson - SNP Basher Extraordinaire

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 6, 2016 at 10:45 PM

      That is a naive and incompetant statement. The Tories want political power like any other party. Unfortunately this election was for some about Nat si ism and the Union. The Union was decided 2014. This election should have been about issues and Labour made its proposals about tax and social issues and they were rejected by the electorate. But those issues will have to be dealt with.

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    2. Some countries have legislated against trolling. In the U.K., section 127 of the Communications Act 2003 says it is an offence to send messages that are "grossly offensive or of an indecent, obscene or menacing character." Several people have been jailed under its provisions.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2May 6, 2016 at 11:52 PM

      You should hand yourself voluntarily intae ra Govan polis Stn immediately. I understand the breakfast has improved.

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    4. It is going to be interesting when some of the new Conservative MSPs get exposure. The BBC will do its best to limit the damage but Ruth will struggle with how her members come across to the electorate.

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2May 7, 2016 at 12:25 AM

      They will come across the same as the Nat sis. Do not tax the rich.

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    6. Don't feed the troll, folks.

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    7. The Tories may want power but Ruth openly admitted she was fighting for 2nd place. She knew she could never beat the SNP and told us all so. She also openly admitted that she would have got votes from people who were not Tories but who wanted to send a pro-Union message to the SNP. She's admitted all of this openly.

      Ruth Davidson is a one-trick pony with her only policy being to stop another indyref. But the SNP + Greens have an absolute pro-indy majority, so on that one policy she's already failed.

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  14. Ruth as she herself said targeted older more 'naturally unionist ; former Labour voters without mentioning too much ,if at all ,the Tory government in Westminster she will now be reminded at every opportunity that she is a prominent supporter of that government and their policies are hers .

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    1. Aye, but leave the fools with her. If they realise she is actually a Tory in wolfs clothing they may go back to liebour. The hegemony we want to strangle is Liebour.

      Incidentally, that Conservative majority in the 50's was a nationalist one. It was a protest against nationalisation and Westminster central control of Scottish industry. In the end our ancestors were right. The neighbours just scew us. Always have.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2May 7, 2016 at 12:20 AM

      Who are the neighbours Nat si? Are you being rascist?

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    3. Don't feed the troll, folks.

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  15. Of course another majority would have been nice but we can't complain too much. In football analogy its 2 cups out the 3 so I'm happy enough. Just gutted I have a Tory msp. Tories can shout all they want, they won 7 constituencies on 18% of the vote or thereabouts I can't see them gaining much more with Dave and George on the rampage, let's see how Ruth goes defending them now. Another referendum was always on ice this term but its in the post. As for Labour, I have no sympathy, maybe if they had genuine ambitions on home rule with in the union they might have lasted the distance but the peoples party always put the party before the people. I'll be keeping a close eye on the Greens in parliament, I like a lot of what they have to say and could possibly post Indy vote for them but not before. A quick note to the troll, does Scotland have its own Hmrc? You can raise taxes but they go to London and they will decide what we get back. I could have been persuaded on a proper federal UK but that ship has sailed no matter what they offer it will never be enough now. If federalism was handled fairly to begin with, modernising the union it may well have lasted another 300 years but despite the Tory glee the union still hangs in the balance as the Westminster Tories make all the SNP,s arguments for them.

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  16. Glasgow Working Class 2May 6, 2016 at 11:47 PM

    If you had a Nat si msp you would have a Tory. Not the brightest are you Kenny.

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    1. Don't feed the troll, folks.

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  17. Looks like that 127 thing applies in Scotland. I find in particular, that it is grossly offensive to be called a nazi. Hows about a fundraiser to bring a prosecution under that act. The ISP will presumably be known to you. Track the offender down. I'm in for some of the cost.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 7, 2016 at 12:14 AM

      I would not pay a small fee to find your lost brain Nat si bhoy. No point!

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    2. Sam the BNP bamMay 7, 2016 at 1:44 AM

      We've known who you are for months Sam. Since you spilled the beans on the co-editor of Stormfront Lite you should now feel free to piss off, you racist old BNP twat.

      That is the point.

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    3. Don't feed the troll, folks.

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