Saturday, November 21, 2015

It's a ComRes corker : GB-wide poll points to continued SNP dominance in Scotland

Tonight's much-trailed GB-wide ComRes poll is out, with the most eye-catching finding being that 40% of respondents agree that Jeremy Corbyn should be "removed by Labour MPs", while only 31% disagree.  It's impossible to make much sense of that result, though, given that ComRes didn't bother to ask whether David Cameron should be removed by Tory MPs.  You'd think that would be a much more natural question to put to people, bearing in mind that Cameron has been hanging around for a decade and Corbyn has been in harness for just two months.  I suspect the Labour "moderates" might even be a tad disappointed that 60% declined to say that their party leader should be deposed.

Of most interest to us is that the SNP are on 5% of the Britain-wide vote, and the Scottish subsample numbers are : SNP 54%, Conservatives 16%, Labour 14%, Liberal Democrats 7%, UKIP 5%, Greens 3%.  The subsample can't be considered statistically reliable, but nevertheless it's fascinating that on some questions, Scottish respondents are bang in line with the Britain-wide results, but on others they take a completely divergent view.  For example, Scottish respondents agree with English respondents that a UK ground attack in Syria/Iraq should not be ruled out under all circumstances, and that Jeremy Corbyn cannot be trusted to keep their families safe.  But they part company from English respondents by overwhelmingly rejecting the idea that Cameron can keep us safe, and by narrowly opposing UK air strikes in Syria without UN authorisation.

Across Britain, Nicola Sturgeon is regarded favourably by 27% of respondents, and unfavourably by 38%.  Those numbers are actually pretty good compared to many other leading politicians - Sturgeon has a better net rating than Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and George Osborne, which is nothing short of miraculous for a filthy separatist.  But you won't be surprised to hear that she fares much better still where it actually matters - in Scotland, 61% regard her favourably, and only 24% unfavourably.

It's painfully obvious from the numbers that hardly anyone has even heard of Tim Farron, but he still manages to have a negative rating.

*  *  *

Mike "can't be arsed" Smithson on Twitter earlier today -

"Corbyn's 59.5% LAB leadership vote share compares with Duncan Smith's 60.7% in 2001 CON contest. 2 years & 2 months later IDS was booted out"

That would be a truly fabulous comparison if it wasn't for the fact that Corbyn's percentage was achieved against THREE opponents, while Duncan Smith had to face only one other candidate in the members' ballot.

I'm also highly dubious about Damian McBride's claim in the Guardian the other day that Jeremy Corbyn will be gone "within a week" if Sadiq Khan fails to win the London mayoralty in the spring.  Does anyone seriously think Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper would have been expected to resign as leader if Khan had lost?

63 comments:

  1. What is interesting has been the shift from people now identifying as SNP compared to Labour in polls past.

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    1. That's been evident in their "Do you think of yourself as ....." question for a good while now.
      SNP 46% : Lab 18% : Con 12% : LD 6% : UKIP 5% : Green 3% isn't unusual any more.
      Though that only 10% say "Don't Know" (12% in GB) is not believable. Simply demonstrating that online panels are more politically engaged than population as a whole.

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  2. Interesting that 42% would vote for parties opposed to independence but only 24% regard Nicola unfavourably.

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    1. In the recent Wings panelbase poll, 7/10 were either for independence or not in principle against it.

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  3. Couldn't find anything on EU referendum voting intentions. Or have I missed it?

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  4. In terms of the Scottish electorate,being an SNP supporter a few years ago was thought of by many as being an uneducated fantasist to now being regarded as main stream political thinking.
    Have the SNP changed or the electorate or perhaps both?
    One thing for sure is that HM press haven't changed so one has to wonder about whether they really have the impact that they think they have.

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    1. Bringiton,
      Half the voters believe in independence.Its natural for them to support a pro independence party.Add on some folk who believe the SNP offer the best route to Devomax.Add on some who don't yet believe in independence but trust the SNP to stand up for Scotland.Add on some who will vote SNP to keep someone else out.Throw in the fact that Labour and the Libdems are abysmal and there's a limited number of folk who will vote for the Bullingdon Boys.I wonder why support for the SNP isn't a tad higher.It might well be come May.In the election last May Labour polled much better in some seats than in other similair seats.That suggests their overall vote could slide still further.

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    2. Scotland is having a collective nervous breakdown. In a way, perhaps this was always destined to happen - ever since the days when people stopped referring to "North Britain" and began referring to "Scotland" again and became interested again in a separate Scottish identity, we have been headed for a day of reckoning. We must now choose: Scottish or British. No more sitting on the fence, as it were.

      I believe the next 20 years will see the issue resolved one way or the other. We will either become an independent nation of Scotland or throw ourselves fully into being a part of Britain, embracing it as something good and something to be proud of - rather than thinking Britishness is somehow bad and something that Scots ought to deny / distance themselves from.

      As a unionist, I obviously hope for the latter.

      Aldo

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    3. Aldo, when did anyone ever refer to Scotland as 'North Britain' as a matter of course? I'm sure the expression has been uttered a few times, but I'm also pretty sure that the term 'Scotland' has been in consistent general use since at least the 15th century. At what point in our history did we start collectively referring to it as 'North Britain', and at what point did it become Scotland again?

      Are you sure this isn't some figment of your unionist imagination?

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    4. What absolute nonsense Aldo. Scotland has never, ever been referred to as "North Britain" in any serious way, by anyone. It is Scotland and has been since the early middle ages, and Scotia (latin) or Alba (Gaelic) since Roman times. I am not aware of any period in History when it has been referred to as North Britain. To attempt to refer to Scotland as North Britain would frankly be highly offensive.

      As for your belief that in the next 20 years we will either choose independence or "throw ourselves fully into being a part of Britain, embracing it as something good and something to be proud of - rather than thinking Britishness is somehow bad and something that Scots ought to deny / distance themselves from", you are dreaming mate. I have travelled the world fairly extensively for over 20 years, and when I meet people and they ask where I am from, never once have I replied "Britain" or "British". Why? Because in my opinion Britishness IS something to deny. I would be embarrassed to call myself British and never will. It's bad enough that I am without having to admit it. Britain is a right wing, imperialist, shockingly undemocratic construct, ruled by an elite who think we have to save money by starving the poor to finance their latest warmongering. Those same elite must sit back laughing as their friends and allies in the outrageously biased British media brainwash the British sheeple. Yeah! Let's bomb Syria! 'Cos that worked out sooo well the first two times in Iraq and Afghanistan! Call me a steaming great turd before you call me British, because I would find that less insulting. 49% of Scots (and rapidly rising) now support independence, according to the latest polls. Another few years at that rate and we'll have the numbers we need. Bring it on!

      Only a unionist would refer to the country waking up and becoming politically engaged in a way that hasn't happened for generations, as a "nervous breakdown" in the first place. It's only unionists who are nervous.

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    5. Many Scots proudly referred to themselves as "North British" in the late 18th and 19th centuries. Indeed, did we not once have a hotel in Glasgow called "the North British"? Ha! I would love it if somebody gave that name to a Scottish hotel now!

      Aldo

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    6. If someone had a breakdown you would expect them to become agitated, volatile, unreliable - perhaps a danger to themselves. You would expect them to lose a sense of reason and perspective. You would expect their behaviour to vastly change from their previous behaviour. You would expect them, perhaps, to contradict themselves and be incoherent. They might develop a persecution complex and believe they are the victim of conspiracy and deliberate slights and put downs, regardless of whether such activity actually exists.

      Notice something about that paragraph above? It describes present day Scotland pretty much perfectly.

      Aldo

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    7. Aldo, the North British Hotel in Glasgow was named after the North British Railway, which originally served to link Edinburgh and Berwick-upon-Tweed, and later extended to London. So you have one UK-wide railway company named 'North British'. As conclusive as that might sound to you, it was in competition with the Caledonian Railway Company - as you might be aware, 'Caledonia' is a synonym for 'Scotland'.

      Since you're a unionist though, you might be interested to note that the post of 'Secretary of State for Scotland' (with that name) was created in 1885. In 1832, the number of Scottish MPs in Parliament was increased by the so-named 'Scottish Reform Act'. The Church of Scotland bore its name throughout this period. Etc.

      I don't know how you've created this bizarre fantasy in your head that we all used to call ourselves 'North British' and only started using the term 'Scottish' again more recently. However, to entertain your idea one more time, I'll ask you again:

      When (to the nearest decade or so) did Scots start referring to themselves AS A MATTER OF COURSE as 'North British'?

      When (again to the nearest decade or so) did Scots stop referring to themselves as a matter of course as 'North British' and start calling themselves 'Scots' once more?

      I'll be interested to hear your answers.

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  5. I would have thought that the membership should be asked if those who refused to serve in Corbyn's cabinet should go.

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  6. Presumably "all UK" poll doesn't include any 16 year-old voters who voted in the Independence referendum last year because these people don't exist in England etc.
    Were they included in a Scotland sub- sample would the SNP number Be higher?

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  7. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 22, 2015 at 7:44 PM

    A party that lied about the economy the currency and about everything else. Exposed by their own loyal spin doctor. Very good article in the hootsman from Brian Wilson. So when are Salmond, Sturgeon etc going to resign in shame and apologise to the Nat si numpties that swallowed their shoite. The rest of us recognised their keech. Thus NAW.

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    1. Coming on here and calling the SNP liars and Nazis is not going to win back support for your beloved Labour party. Eat your cereal.

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    2. It is Labour and the Tories who did the vast, vast, majority of the lying my friend. Something the majority of Scottish people saw and remember. That is why Labour support in Scotland is now at the same pathetic level of Tory support. As for being "exposed" by Alex Bell, do you know what the word exposed means? I think not, since he did not expose anything at all, with the exception of his own bitterness. Let me guess. You support a particular football team don't you Working Crass? Do you spend your free time wearing sashes and banging drums too?

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    3. Go away Dugdale or who ever your sad little mind thinks that you are. Have you not got a certain little unionist bunch of liars who masquerade as Scottish Labour to try and resurrect? If any party is Nasi as you so often quote it is they you know your wee pals that stole thousands in expenses at the public's expense. Murphy, Curran, Davidson etc.

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  8. Very sad---Brian Wilson and the Scotsman. Who reads them now apart from idiots like GWC?

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    1. The quality and accuracy of Scotsman articles is reflected in its sales and financial situation.

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-34867820

      Johnston Press share price falls as revenue slide continues

      Shares in Johnston Press fell by more than 10% in early trading after the local media group reported a further slide in sales.

      The Edinburgh-based group said underlying revenues for the 17 weeks to 31 October fell 8.8% year-on-year.

      Sales had fallen by 7.6% in the second quarter.


      I thought GWC was Labour. The Scotsman is of course (shy) Tory. I think we know who is a secret 'Tartan Tory'. ;-)

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 23, 2015 at 1:09 AM

      And we have this other Nat si Angus Robertson MPwho wants a grand plan tae be in place if IS are to be sorted. Strange I do not recall any historical evidence that the Jews and others were saying to the allies when the camps were liberated, 'go away and leave uz till ye hiv a grand plan'. Shame on the Nat sis and the Corbinites. And of course the Nat sis were happy to say they did not want intervention in the Balkans when genocide was known to be happening. But we took in a few refugees to ease their false conscience. SNP are vomit materiel.

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    3. The sophistication of your arguments is something to behold. Eat your cereal.

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    4. The Scotsman outsells the National by more than 2 to 1.

      Aldo

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    5. Must really rip your knitting that all of Scottish fascist groups support the Union.

      Is there. perhaps, a link between Unionism and fascism?

      Anyway, I bet you were sieg-heiling along with your fascist allies like the BNP in George Square on the 19th. That's your sort of ally - actual Nazis.

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    6. Better Together had a range of supporters from all over the political spectrum and all walks of life - including undesirables. But if all life is there then you will find bad as well as good.

      The Yes campaign was supported by the socialists. How many people did Stalin, Chairman Mao and co slaughter again? It was hundreds of millions - far more than fascism. Not that I defend fascism one bit. Far left / far right - they're all dangerous nutters.

      Aldo

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    7. Yes we know their range The sectarian Orange order, the Britain first formely known as the National Front and many other violent loony groups.

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    8. George Galloway is an Orangeman? Well, I never knew that!

      Aldo

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  9. Is GWC Mone of Mayfair in a push-up Tartan Tory sporran?

    I think we should not be told.

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  10. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 23, 2015 at 1:19 AM

    Anon, Skier and David. I know it is difficult for ye all tae face reality but I do wonder how a snake can crawl under yer bellies and avoid yer venom. The Truth Shall Set Ye Free. Knobs.

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    1. We'll be a long wait on the truth from your Blairite heroes. Eat your cereal.

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    2. Difficult for you, despite all your Nat sis jive, to see the link between Unionism and Fascism.

      That's your comrades in arms, you cereal chomping putz.

      The B.N.P, Britain First et al.

      Fascism and Unionism - forever entwined since the 19th of September last year. Your allies, your comrades.

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  11. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 23, 2015 at 1:45 AM

    ANON. Another recorded side step from a Nat si. It was one off yer oan that bubbled. We Unionists already knew you were lying. NAW.

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    1. Stop side-stepping the fact your Unionist allies are fascists.

      You are the real Nazi sympathizer, you cereal gobbling orc.

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  12. By my reckoning (and with the assistance of the Scotland Votes election calculator), the nationalists could conceivably lose their majority at 43/43. Once they fall to 40/40, it's all over (for indy, at least), unless the Greens can excel beyond anything that could realistically be expected of them.

    In other words, the nationalists need to lose one fifth of their support in order to bring the unionist parties back into contention at Holyrood. To think this could happen in time for next Spring is wishful - but by 2019/20/21 (whenever the next Holyrood vote again is held), it is certainly a realistic prospect.

    Aldo

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    1. Well, no way I'm voting Tory with this economic incompetence. What a complete disaster George is.

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12007197/Autumn-Statement-2015-George-Osborne-dealt-a-blow-by-terrible-borrowing-figures.html

      Autumn Statement 2015: George Osborne dealt a blow by 'terrible' borrowing figures

      Autumn Statement 2015: October deficit rises to highest since 2009 as figures suggest Chancellor will miss current borrowing target

      No wonder economic optimism has been tanking since the Tories won a majority:

      https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Politics/pm-eoi-nov-2015.jpg

      With the public having no confidence in Tory policies being good for public services:

      https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Politics/pm-public-services-nov-2015.jpg

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    2. Fastest growing economy in the western world, deficit halved, zero (or near zero) inflation. Unemployment falling everywhere.............

      ...except Scotland, where it has risen in the last quarter. No doubt due to the soar elbowist neverendum and the sheep-like devotion of the entranced.

      Aldo

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    3. Unemployment is also rising in North East of England due to the Tories.

      http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/north-east-unemployment-figures-rise-10256092

      It's only really the SE of England that's doing ok, as would be expected under the Tories.

      That's why UK economic optimism is tanking and the electorate have no faith in Tory policies for public services, as per the latest MORI poll.

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    4. "Fastest growing economy in the western world"

      Erm, what about e.g. little independent Ireland? Also tiny Iceland?

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    5. Scottish Skier, in the latest economic figures, every one of the UK's regions has seen employment increase, apart from Scotland. I would like to hear your opinion as to why that might be. Probably something along the lines of "the SNP are SO good, they're actually bad".

      Aldo

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    6. Erm, oil downturn? Do you not read the news Aldo? For a Tory, you really know very little about the economy.

      Of course the UK government has an oil fund - started by the fiscally competent Tories - to help the Aberdeen area until prices go up again when the Saudis decide job done.

      Oh no, wait...

      Anyway, if Scotland has higher unemployment that the UK it means we need independence right now so the Scottish government has the power to fix the problems that the UK government is not fixing.

      What you need to secure the union is Scotland prospering with its economy growing rapidly and very low unemployment. If you get that, then independence becomes less likely. Any bad economic news for Scotland and independence gets closer.

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    7. And unemployment is rising in the NE of England. Has been since the end of 2015 Q1.

      http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-labour/regional-labour-market-statistics/november-2015/rft-lm-table-hi01-north-east-november-2015.xls

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    8. I thought the oil was just "a wee bonus", Skier? That's what the nationalists told us. So presumably, bonus having been removed, there will still be jobs and opportunities aplenty for those laid off oil workers. Right?

      Right?

      Scotland doesn't need an oil fund, Skier. Being part of something much bigger - the UK - precludes the need for one. And if we'd set one up, that would have been less money at the time for schools, hospitals, police, welfare and so on.

      Aldo

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  13. I see Mike Smithson is making a twat of himself over the Survation "some Muslims support ISIS" poll for the Sun. The bold Mike claimed that it had been funded by Leave.EU, one of the EU-out campaign groups. Except that's been denied by Survation, Leave.EU and the Sun, who all say the poll was fully funded by the Sun.

    Buzzfeed journo: "Survation tells me that the poll was fully funded by the Sun newspaper."

    https://twitter.com/dats/status/668735551076438016

    Buzzfeed journo: "And there you go. "Leave.eu have nothing to do with the poll". "

    https://twitter.com/dats/status/668736700689088512

    Smithson: "CORRECTION The Sun front page poll was NOT funded by Leave.EU. I've deleted my earlier Tweet."

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/668735902106165248

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  14. So much for a No vote protecting jobs on the Clyde.

    https://archive.is/MGuoD#selection-2623.1-2623.128

    Shipbuilding on the Clyde torpedoed as David Cameron prepares to sink orders for five new frigates

    THREE thousand jobs in Clyde shipyards are put at risk as an MOD defence review is expected to cancel orders for Type 26 ships.

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  15. OMG. Tories trash the Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft fleet only to now have to buy a whole new fleet of maritime patrol aircraft!

    You couldn't make up such throwing money down the drain incompetence.

    And no wonder Scots don't feel David Cameron's government will keep their families safe (Comres poll). Russian sub apparently off the coast but no Nimrods to find it!

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  16. Very odd that GWC continually calls SNP and independistas "liars" when daily the lies of the Unionist clowns running Britain and Better Together are exposed in their own journals. The more I read the horror that GWC represents the more convinced I am of his provenance!

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  17. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 23, 2015 at 1:12 PM

    Hey Skier old chap the Nat sis were and are prepared to lose thousands of jobs for their Nat si project and the Yards would close and you know it. The Russkies and Soviets have always tested ability and defenses as we have theirs.
    I seem to recall that wee Kim Jung Eck was never really all that keen in opposing the Soviets. He was against NATO but apparently supports it now. Can you believe anything the Nat sis say! And what wilderness is their Left in?

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    1. GWC , I think I knew your old man. Are you Mason Boyne's daft son?

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  18. James, this thread was fine with a mature discussion on the polling until the poster GWC came and joined it. I find his comments to be about Nazi's to be offensive. One of my friends lost most of her family at Auschwitz and read casual comments about us at Nazi's most insulting. I know you don't like to monitor posts but there should be some posting rules to stop this poster using offensive terms on this site.

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    1. Yes, given the ongoing horror in Syria / Iraq, the downing of the airliner out of Egypt and the tragic events in Paris, GWC's constant '(i)sis' comments are particularly disgusting. Does he not wonder why unionist parties are doing so badly in the polls? It's because of people like him. A very disturbed individual who could probably do with professional help.

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  19. Getting less inclined to read this blog the more I see GWC name.

    Nazis killed millions of people; having that snidey wee fart compare a non-violent democratic movement to them has now reached stupid proportions.

    He insults my Jewish heritage for a cheap political point.

    Quite simply a disgusting human being who trivialises horrors without one iota of understanding.

    Sort it out, James. This getting beyond a joke.

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  20. GWC is clearly one of three things: 1) A troll. 2) A 12 year old who has no idea what the word "nazi" actually means, because you have to go to school to learn that sort of thing, or 3) Seriously, mentally deficient, with the approximate IQ of a slug.

    I rather feel sorry for him myself. Not right now, but when support for independence reaches 60%, and we win the next indyref, his whole world is going to fall apart. What will he do with his sash and drum when there's no union to bang it for?

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  21. At 7.31 yesterday I asked a question about the poll which, I was keen to have an answer. Sadly the poll and the blog has been hijacked by one of the most objectionable people I have ever come across.
    If I was meeting him/her in the flesh I would be walking away from his/her unfunny view of life in seconds. I used to enjoy this blog, but I am quitting until he disappears.

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    1. But the trolls win if we all do that. I agree that there is one particular pest. But while I will attack him, I do not engage him.

      I suggest everyone just remind him to eat his cereal but never engage. Do not respond to any of his comments, save to remind him to eat his cereal. Eventually he will find some other way to fill his empty pointless life.

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  22. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 23, 2015 at 10:16 PM

    Angus Robertson MP, con merchant moaning about cuts in British Forces. He wants Scotland to leave the British Armed Forces. I seem to have humiliated all you Nat sis on here. You just give verbal diahorea in response. I bet most of you email each other for advise and Nat si excuse making.The Nat sis should be taken to court for all their lies before the referendum.

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    1. Go eat your cereal ladyboy.

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  23. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 23, 2015 at 10:50 PM

    And wee Angus who wants Scotland to leave the Union demands the 13 ships promised to be built on the Clyde should be built. The knob wants to recall the Vital Spark and Govan ferry for a new Scottish navy. Admiral Semen Stanes and Vice Admiral Master Bates to command the Scottish navy.

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  24. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 23, 2015 at 10:58 PM

    And another thing I am a fascist and proud of it.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 23, 2015 at 11:42 PM

      Can you confirm you are the same GWC posting above on 23 November 2015, 10:50pm?

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    2. Stop having conversations with yourself, Unionazi.

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    3. We all know your mental health problems are immense but adding multiple personality disorder to your essential creepiness is not helping matters.

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  25. So Gwc admits to being a "fascist" and being proud of it and yet he calls nationalists nat sis - there's more than ignorance at play here! I suspected all along he was a fascist (with a touch of orange) - he'll be comfortable in this neo-fascist Britain then!

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