Thursday, September 24, 2015

Another straw in the wind suggests Corbyn hasn't changed the game in Scotland

Today brings word of a fourth Britain-wide voting intention poll to have been wholly conducted after Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader, this time a telephone poll from Ipsos-Mori.  Once again, the Scottish subsample figures are entirely typical of what we've been used to over the last year or so : SNP 53%, Conservatives 22%, Labour 19%, Liberal Democrats 4%.  That's in spite of the fact that Labour support is holding up remarkably well south of the border - across Britain, they trail the Tories by just five points.

We'll have to wait for a full-scale Scottish poll to be sure, but the evidence seems to be gradually mounting that Corbyn hasn't been a game-changer in Scotland so far.  Clues to why that may be the case can be found in Ipsos-Mori's supplementary questions, where the Scottish subsample offer a verdict on Corbyn that doesn't differ a great deal from the English sample.  For example, 75% of respondents in England say that Labour is "divided", compared with 72% in Scotland.  And we know that parties perceived as being disunited rarely win elections.

Is there any glimmer of hope for Scottish Labour ahead of next May?  The position on Trident seems to have been thrown up in the air yet again, with the possibility of a conference vote next week, and Corbyn confirming that a vote to scrap Trident would be recognised as altering official party policy.  That might allow Kezia to backtrack on her self-harming "multilateralist" stance almost in spite of herself.  Scottish Labour really do need to slaughter some sort of sacred cow to get the idea across that they've changed, and in the absence of a Damascene conversion on independence or Devo Max, nuclear disarmament looks like the most promising possibility.

However, Stephen Bush of the New Statesman believes that both sides of the debate may shy away from a vote next week, because they are both unsure of winning.  The anti-Trident camp reckon they'll have a better chance next year when they can make sure they send the right sort of delegates to conference, and presumably the pro-Trident camp reckon Corbyn might be gone by next year and the issue won't arise.  Basically, it could seem to be in the best interests of almost everyone to have a year's delay - except Scottish Labour, who have an election to fight in just eight months' time.

32 comments:

  1. The key (go / no go) vote on Trident in the House of Commons comes next March, I believe, before the next Labour Conference.

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    1. Great - that means that Labour can abstain as they heve not decided yet!

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  2. More proof that Scotland is already acting as an independent nation!

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  3. I cannot see Jeremy Corbyn lasting for very long as UK Labour leader. He already looks like a lame duck. Unless he somehow finds a way of dealing with the vast majority of Labour MPs, I cannot see him lasting long. He has rightly said Labour will campaign to keep the UK in the EU, but it is pretty obvious he is very lukewarm about the EU. Tom Watson immediately said after he was elected that he supported keeping Trident. If Corbyn is not able to change Labour's stance on Trident, then really all that is left of his radical agenda is his anti-austerity vague policies, and Labour MPs will again put the pressure of for him to water it down, and dilute it, as much as possible. It appears Corbyn is also very conservative on the constitution as well.

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  4. So no Corby bounce then. I am now sort of more interested in who the next Tory UKOK nutter leader will be. Cameron is a goner, it is no longer if he goes but when. And will the Liz purr at the creatures election.

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  5. I really can't see the Morningside Conservative Ladies Luncheon Club swooning over someone like "Jezz".They may not particularly like Mr Murrays policies,but at least he knows how to dress correctly....his Union Jack suit was,perhaps,a tad loud,but not wholly inappropriate for a summer fete.Mr Corbyn turning up looking like a workmen would put them off their pudding.

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  6. I'm bemused by the idea that Scottish Labour moving some stances in the face of a massive defeat, and because of that defeat, is a sign that it has changed.
    The Labour I saw in the Referendum and since isn't a worthwhile body in it's own right and a few policy flips won't make that right.

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  7. It is a difficult one for independence supporters in that Corbyn is a much more progressive figure than the three Red Tories he beat this month. However, I just do not see a particularly adept or even talented political operator there. Corbyn is giving the distinct impression of being an accidental political leader, and that rarely if ever works out well. The Tories, their MSM buddies, and the Red Tories are going to make his life a misery. Corbyn caught the mood of the mass Labour membership in England in particular, after their lifeless campaign in the general election.

    Is Corbyn going to appeal to the majority of No voters in Scotland? I just cannot see it. As Anonymous says the diehard Conservative element in Scotland are going to probably despise him for his perceived radicalism, while the dominant New Labour faction here, led by Dugdale and Murray, look at him with ill concealed contempt. You can tell they view him as a political dinosaur, although to be fair they are uber careerists, without barely a hint of a political principle between them. So by and large I cannot see the Proud Scots but/mostly middle class No voters taking to him at all.

    The major irony is that if the left wing, progressive polticial faction in England get hammered by the right wing MSM, Tories and the red variety, and Corbyn/McDonnell are forced out, then independence is practically inevitable. Which of course would not be very amusing for the hardcore me first brigade of the No voters, the ones who vote primarily on what they think is best for themselves, but would be for independence voters!

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    1. It is of course not No voters we are worried about but Yes voters who see hope in the UK in Corbyn and so waver on Independence. The polls are not bearing that out.

      James of course being SNP worries about the converts from Labour returning and harming the SNP. I'm not SNP so this doesn't particularly bother me and secondly there are much more credible alternatives like the Greens or RISE for such people to gravitate towards and still be supporting Yes.

      This is a big problem for SLAB, they are now a minor party competing with other minor parties but they have not go the right mindset for the position they find themselves in. It isn't even as though they have likely coalition partners as the LibDems are continuing their implosion. Under a national PR system as we have in NZ at 4% they would not get elected without a constituency hold. The threshold is 5%.

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  8. It seems pretty clear that voters know that the SNP would support a Corbyn minority government, would not vote a Tory/Tory-led coalition in, and also seem to think the SNP are more competent and trustworthy than Scottish Labour. Indeed, they have MORE reason to vote SNP to work with Corbyn now that he's said he would work with them, when they already voted SNP to work with Miliband even if he said there'd be no deals.

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    1. Yes, this is a good point.
      It was obvious that Labour would have to work with the SNP, but now it is OFFICIAL.

      What's the point of voting Labour in Scotland, when we can have a genuine Scottish party working with a Corbyn-led government, AND looking out for this country.

      Whether that happens or not.. we have a better voice to represent Scottish interests.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 24, 2015 at 11:52 PM

      Maybe taxing the Scottish rich and well aff middle class instead of making them even more rich could be a Nat si policy!��

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    3. Indeed. For those worried about Labour attracting voters who have moved to the SNP, you just have to ask yourself: Would Corbyn have won the :Labour leadership contest if someone like Nicola Sturgeon had been a contender?

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  9. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 24, 2015 at 8:02 PM

    I would have thought like the Tories do the Tartan Nat si branch would rejoice in the election of the Corbinator

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    1. Gobbledegook as usual.

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  10. Glasgow Working ClassSeptember 24, 2015 at 11:05 PM

    Do da nas sit no nat sis always in the corbin in bin, tartan not, so it is aye.

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    1. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is what passes for coherent political debate as far as our resident troll is concerned. Perhaps one day GWC will take these shambolic, knee-jerk, sub-McTernanesque wibblings to a site where they'll be better appreciated.

      The Daily Mail is always keen for more incoherent Nat-bashing...

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    2. At least have the bottle to publish your name . If there is any Nazis in Scotland then I suggest you look at the sole union jack suit wearer in the Labour party Northern branch or the Land owner liar Carmichael of the Lib Dums. Perhaps you could enlighten us with who you would like to run Scotland or do just TROLL because you have nothing better to do?

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    3. He was outed on an earlier thread as James McGibbon.
      "Google" his name and 'Natsis' and you will find his garbage on Left Foot Forward as well.

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    4. A 'McGibbon' stood as a UKIP candidate in Glasgow.

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    5. dah doo doo doo da ddah dah dah s ssss sss sn snnnn snp bbb baaaad

      Cretin

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  11. Corbyn is a thinker, not a leader. He won't achieve anything of his radical politicies because he's not a politique.

    He won't expel the Blairites, he's too collegiate.

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  12. James Kelly - Cant this "Glasgow working class" creature be blocked? Is not ok to make constant reference to "Nat sis". Or do u have a non blocking policy?

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    1. The Blogger platform doesn't have a blocking feature. The options would be to delete every single comment manually, or to disable comments from non-registered users, which would affect everyone.

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    2. The best approach is to ignore trolls. Do not feed them. If everyone just acted as if the troll in question was not there, it would quickly disappear through lack of oxygen. Unfortunately, there are still one or two who take the bait and respond directly, thus encouraging it to keep going. That is why it is still around.

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    3. I agree if this clown can't even name itself then it's immature rantings should be moderated.

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  13. James, any chance of a critique from you about the "poll" on front page of today's P+J. Unfortunately, this viewspaper has a big readership. Their poll says "80% of you reject a 2nd referendum." looks very much like they've cherrypicked readers to question, they don't abide by polling guidance, and I suspect there are leading introductory questions. I fear that the older generation who read the P+J take it as gospel rather than propaganda/spin.

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    1. Tory rag now know as the Voice of Trump lets build another golf course Journal. I hope James doesn't waste his time.

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    2. It seems hat he did indeed waste his time. The P&J looks like a rat and smell like a rat and moves like a rat therefor it is a rat and a big plague infested one.

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    3. I agree that P+J is biased nonsense, but the thing is that it's got a huge readership, bigger I think, than Herald and Scotsman. And many readers won't realise that it's propaganda, so I really appreciate James' critique. I've been forwarding it to P+J readers who otherwise wouldn't think much about it and would assume its a kosher poll. Not everyone is as politically motivated as us - they just casually buy papers they've always bought and trust them. We need to challenge that and James' blog helps.

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  14. I think I said this previously,but not certain! (too many pills) Jeremy Corbyn is,I think a stopgap leader for a couple of reasons,first and main one was/is to spike the SNP,s guns,and give a revived socialist Labour Party a chance of ousting Nicola Sturgeon as the First minister,I think that will be a big fail.The second one was/is a serious attempt to get more conversation going and discuss the Austerity stance of Westminster and perhaps get Labour to be a better opposition,another big fail.The plan could be that if Labour make inroads in Scotland at the Holyrood elections then they have an idea of how to raise the Labour party IN Scotland's chances of being revived to being a political party and not just a carping voice in the wind.Then in about 18 months after the Holyrood elections they will have another change of leader,but fail (as they probably will) and we may see another Scottish leadership elections,perhaps they (Labour) could just make it a bi-annual thing for party leader and have a fresh face every two years.Hope I've raised a smile or two. Ah before I forget GWC only comes here to make remarks because he/she lacks ability to make a serious comment,his/her childish nat sis stuff is a sign of lack of ability we have had that silly remark made at us for many years and it has now become a laugh at the writer of the remark,almost forgot to say pathetic as well.

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