Throughout the Greek crisis, I've been trying to work out what the impact might be of any given outcome on Britain's forthcoming referendum (and by extension on Scotland's constitutional future). But it's been almost impossible, because it's like trying to think several moves ahead in a game of chess. For example, in the immediate sense, a Greek exit from the Eurozone might look like a calamity for the European project, and something that can only embolden the 'Out' camp. But if it actually helped to stabilise the Greek economy, the crisis might be a distant memory for most voters by the time the referendum comes around. Even as it is, many people don't see any direct relevance to our situation, due to the UK being firmly outside the Eurozone.
It could be, however, that the alternative to Grexit that now seems to be unfolding is the real nightmare scenario for the pro-EU camp, because the humiliation of Syriza is thoroughly alienating the British radical left, and even parts of the mainstream left. I'm not sure that will feed into opinion polls any time soon, but it could make a big difference once the campaign gets underway in earnest. A successful drive for a Yes will depend on enthusiastic footsoldiers from across the political spectrum, and they're going to be in shorter supply as a result of the events of the last 24 hours.
This isn't the first time that an EU country has been subjected to a Brussels/Berlin-sponsored "coup" attempt - a few years ago, Italy was effectively forced to replace its democratically-elected government with a technocratic administration under Mario Monti. But that didn't cause so much disquiet among the British left, simply because it was Berlusconi that was displaced.
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I've noticed an intriguing pattern since the general election. On the rare occasions that the DUP have joined forces with Labour and the SNP to oppose a government policy, it's sent the Tories into headlong retreat. It happened over repeal of the Human Rights Act, and it happened again last week over EVEL. If you think about it, there's a good reason for that. The DUP are very much in tune with the instincts of many Tory backbenchers, so whenever the DUP are opposed to a government decision, it's likely there will be a number of Tory rebels as well - certainly enough to overturn the wafer-thin government majority of 16 (it's officially 12, but 16 in practice).
The pre-election speculation that the DUP could end up holding the balance of power might not be so wide of the mark after all.