Thursday, September 18, 2014

Final Ipsos-Mori poll puts Yes just 3% from victory

Ipsos-Mori's last word is -

Yes 47%
No 53%

Not quite as good as yesterday's poll from the same firm, but the difference is easily explainable by margin of error 'noise' - ie. if the true position according to Ipsos-Mori's methodology is somewhere between 46 and 50, it would be completely normal to get 49 one day and 47 the next due to random sampling variation.

I hope to God this is the last poll, and we can now let actual votes decide this referendum!

46 comments:

  1. Newsflash from the future:

    By January 2016, between 80% of voters in Scotland recalled to pollsters that their vote on September 18th 2014 had been for Yes.

    Here's hoping that enough of them will be telling the truth that we make the difference we need to make today.

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  2. Realism over idealism. #VoteNo

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  3. Neo-Liberalism,Nukes,Anti-Democracy over Scotland?

    Vote Yes.

    Fuck off troll.

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  4. Hope over fear #VoteYes

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  5. Turnout is MASSIVE already. Absolutely unprecedented. Sorry, too busy for anything other than a quick update. :-)

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  6. Ah, thanks Anonymous, a new slogan to replace "Don't think, vote No". Means exactly the same though.

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  7. A high turn out and all bets are off.

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  8. @MickPork, thanks for the update especially if C2DE. :)

    @Everyone in GOTV, Thank You, Thank You with tears on my cheeks.

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  9. It might be easier to say no in a poll than actually doing it on the ballot paper.

    I thought it was quite powerful when I saw the ballot paper.

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  10. I voted my postal vote a few weeks ago and just about shat it when I read the question.

    God only know's how Scot's born will see it.

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  11. "It might be easier to say no in a poll than actually doing it on the ballot paper."

    And as Chalke wrote, if Scots born...

    How do you say no?

    I could see how you could leave it blank and not vote, or just do not show up.

    But to vote NO, there is something emotional to that very simple ballot paper.

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  12. Already some chat on Twitter, on my obviously balanced timeline, about people going in as No voters, seeing the question and changing their minds. I've suspected something like this all along. Not long to find out now.

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  13. My GOTV experience this morning is that NOBODY isn't voting

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  14. Comment on Twitter from RICS

    " Kate Joester @rebelraising · 36m

    So apparently 30% turnout in Muirhouse, Edinburgh by 10am. Total turnout there usually about 25%. #indyref

    Replied to 0 times"

    This is a large deprived area.

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  15. Just had some nice young Yes lads at the door looking to cart my flatmate off to the polls. Not sure where he signed up, and anyways, I think he's already voted this AM... Still, dont think we've even been canvassed so looks like the GOTV crew are on it! Yes please!

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  16. What do you think of what your seeing on the ground?

    Does it look good, bad, close?

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  17. Atmoshphere at my polling station (in maybe the poorest part of Glasgow) was amazing. Crowds buzzing round Yes polling staff. Lone local Labour goon standing with sunglasses getting ignored.

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  18. @Callum, I hope and pray that volunteers are knocking on doors of YES voters making sure they voted and if they need a ride.

    The RICS tweet on Muirhouse Edinburgh was highly encouraging 30% turnout by 10:00 when turnout is normally 25% at the end of the day.

    If Muirhouse is representative of other housing estates and C2DE areas then I dare say, we might, might, have this.

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  19. George that gives us great hope! The people who don't trun out are going to shock the pollsters.

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  20. A very posh better together bloke just called my mobile to ask if I needed help voting! Told him no thanks I've voted Yes!

    There database and GOTV must be shite

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  21. This is a copy/paste of part of a message I posted about No voters who wouldn't be able to go through with their vote.

    Like the poster above, I have read 3 people now on my twitter feed, saying they could not vote No so changed to Yes while in the voting Booth!

    "I don't think the word 'shy' explains it, I think the word ashamed or embarrassed explains their feelings better.

    My reasons for this is simple, In listening to conversations it is telling how hard No campaigners/voters and leaders will justify themselves by stating that they are proud Scots but... or it's not that I'm against independence it's just that I think 'Now is not the best time'

    Anyone involved in the campaign will have heard this 9 and more)repeatedly.

    As someone who's profession has been in mental health, I find this very telling because it shows clearly that people who are No voters are not comfortable with themselves and feel that their own personal interests are in contrast to the interests of their nation and fellow citizens.

    If you have been on twitter as I have you will have saw so many (hundreds) of people saying that they had been No up until the past week/fortnight, but have now 'Thought about it' and decided to vote Yes.

    These people for the most part, when they say they have thought about it, are telling us something important. you see they are not thinking about it for the first time or else they would not have been NO voters, what is happening is they have had this internal contradiction like most No's but have perhaps had an incident (Cameron Visit) or perhaps they have had a conversation that has brought home to them that a No vote will damage a friend relative, and this has tipped them to Yes.

    My belief is that for every person who is switching from No to Yes there will also be one or two No voters who will simply not vote, as they will not be able to deal with the internal conflict of voting against Scotland"

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  22. How does the no campaign's GOTV effort look compared to ours?

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  23. I am confused. This website says 6% lead for YES. A mistake?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-final-poll-puts-yes-ahead-by-six-percentage-points-9741019.html

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  24. @Anon, call it "divine intervention" a sign of things to come.

    Print it fast and save the pdf.

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  25. I'm a No voter, but in the spirit of not being at each other's throats come tomorrow morning, I thought I would say that I've enjoyed reading this site throughout the campaign. I think James has been a touch optimistic in his analyses at times, but I don't doubt everyone is doing this because they think it's the best thing for the country.

    There are good people on both sides so whoever wins I hope the instinct is more reconciliation than rubbing it in. I'm certainly not going to gloat if No wins and I'll try and take it on the chin if we don't.

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  26. Malcolm Barnes: Here here! I'm a yes voter, but I'm sure that, whichever way the vote goes, we Scots will pull together to build a better country.

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  27. Given the gender gap and the NO dominance among pensioners, YES has only a chance if women and pensioners are less likely to vote than others. That may be the case for women (versus men), but probably not among pensioners (including women). So, I don't see it happening. Sorry.
    The chance will not come again in your or my lifetime.
    I don't think that the YES campaign was able to reduce people's fears about the currency and pensions. These were their biggest mistakes.

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  28. Telegraph/Sky have leaked that the result of Edinburgh postal vote was 58% Yes.

    Do not know if that was just for a particular area?

    They have since removed their posts/off timeline....saw it on Wings.

    Guess it's all hearsay at this stage.

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  29. @Anonymous (1:04 PM) Pensioners are a finite NO resource, they are already factored in at every election as being the dependable voter.

    The race will be decided if YES has a majority of the "missing million" actually around 900,000.

    I seriously doubt that pensioners make up any part of the missing million.

    Roughly and assuming the poll of polls is representative of the voting pool that existed in 2010 if transplanted in 2014, the missing million will likely not be of that statistical makeup.

    If YES gets 60% plus of the missing million, they will win the day.

    I am assuming the missing million are largely formerly disenfranchised C2DE voters many living in housing estates and other council type housing.

    This is now all down to get out the vote.

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  30. Seems hard to believe it would be leaked before polls close.

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  31. Anon : Is it us you're trying to convince or yourself? Yes are the underdogs, I think that's correct, but this is a very uncertain situation.

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  32. James, is it feasible that they would have leaked the Edinburgh postal vote?

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  33. @chalkes or anyone, would the postal vote have been opened as in the second envelope and counted already?

    I HATE election days!!! I have been a political junkie too long....

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  34. Different Anonymous here. I dont endorse the comments of my fellow coward above.

    Yes has a strong chance if the No vote is complaisant, if the disenfranchised are encouraged to the polls, if the undecideds sway in numbers or if the no voters search their souls.

    There are also many other reasons why it could swing to yes, that don't allow construction of a wee rhyme, but my wee whisky on returning from voting yes has turned into 3 and now I'm no good to anyone...

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  35. Getting good vibes about the Yes vote from social media and Betfair is starting to tighten a little. The No people seem a little grumpy...

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  36. I am not sure if they count they have been counting them in the run up....I always thought they opened them when they opened the ballot boxes.

    Maybe not though, hopefully someone knows.

    I know they have rep's present where the postal votes are collated, so it's plausible that they are opened.

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  37. I'm Yes, but really appreciate that this has been one of the few websites where there's been mostly respectful dialogue between Yes and No. Hugely appreciate all James' work and wisdom. Rather pessimistic about the polls. That must be about 8 we've had, settling around 48%.

    In Govan, been bumping into Yes and No people handing out stuff on the street and warm conversations with all.

    At the polling booth this morning the Yes woman, a retired civil servant, said how she'd spent last night persuading an old woman that she wasn't about to lose her pension as a No cold telephone caller had told her. She said she wanted to vote Yes with her heart, but couldn't if she'd lose her pension. That was converted back to Yes but at the cost of quite some time.

    And then the No guy, an air force intelligence officer, Flight Lt (not in uniform), very much believing in UK operations abroad. While military operations are one of my main reasons for voting Yes I have to say he had a really good, clear energy, clearly a man of integrity. Warm handshakes notwithstanding differences. Same with James Adams, one of the Govan Labour councillors campaigning for No last night. Both agreed, as he put it, "A lot of work to do in Govan after this."

    Went round to see a No neighbour for a blether - no hope of conversion. Told me Salmond looks like Mussolini, and that Mussolini used to hang them up by the lamp posts. I pointed to our lamp post saying, "Looks to me a bit shoogly for your weight!" Laughs all round.

    Apart from a group of 3 official BT campaigners in George Sq yesterday who walked past po-faced without reciprocating greeting, all my interactions with the other side have left a sense of wanting to endorse human connections across political divides. Websites like this, which have helped to humanise the other, can take some credit for that.

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  38. Just found a video of David Cameron renouncing his further devo promises :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pedAc8rQimw

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  39. According to the "Timing of the Count and Declaration of Result for the Scottish Independence Referendum" PDF from electionsscotland.info:

    "8.10 Postal votes received prior to the day of poll will have already been verified and put into sealed ballot boxes ready for the count."

    So any leak seems to be impossible, as much as I would love it to be true!

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  40. Read on the BBC website that police were looking into a postal vote leak in Edinburgh, then tried to google it for a while, and nothing came up.

    This is, obviously, it. Even it is 58% No, thats not a bad return for postal votes from Edinburgh!

    Hope the report is accurate though!

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  41. On postal voting I found this which indicates counting in advance;

    http://www.jamesbarlow.co.uk/opening-postal-votes

    But that is contradictory to the above.

    BUT the first envelope is opened and obviously marked against some list.

    Could YES have came up with an estimate of the envelopes that came in whom they helped register by post?

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  42. The leak wad 58% Edinburgh district. Police Scotland investigating leak. If accurate then this will be a Yes Tsunami. Are you reading this Blair McD? Fresh nappy time...😊

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  43. Sky news confirming an investigation;

    " And as the campaigning moved into its final hours, police said they were investigating a complaint that somebody involved in the referendum count had been making public comments about postal vote results in Edinburgh.

    Police Scotland gave no further details, but the allegation reportedly came to light via a tweet."

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  44. chalks, the report about postal vote results was a twitter hoax that someone reported to the police. I looked into it on twitter last night. I suspected it was a hoax given that postal votes are only fully unsealed during the count,

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  45. Both camps will canvass postal voters after they have voted to gauge how it's going (did yes votes turn up, anyone getting jitters).

    Very unreliable though

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