Saturday, December 14, 2024

Reform UK support climbs to new high watermark in Techne poll

I saw someone on Twitter earlier declare that "the Reform surge is a myth", in reaction to a More in Common poll showing a slight dip in Reform support. The snag was that the More in Common fieldwork was actually less recent than for the Find Out Now poll that had Reform in second place, ahead of the Tories.  And now we have a new Techne poll, with slightly more recent fieldwork than Find Out Now, and which as far as I can see has Reform UK hitting all-time high levels of support with Techne.  It's certainly the highest since the general election, and having had a look I can't see anything higher from before the election either.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Techne, 11th-12th December 2024):

Labour 27% (-)
Conservatives 25% (-)
Reform UK 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-1)
Greens 7% (-)
SNP 2% (-)

Given that we've seen polls from another firm showing Reform UK in a clear second place, it may seem strange that a poll putting them third can represent an all-time high.  But all polling firms have their own 'house effects', and Techne has tended to be one of the less favourable firms for Reform UK.  Until recently, every Techne poll since the election has had Reform in the teens.  The last poll had them jumping to 21%, and now there's been a further slight increase to 22%.

This keeps open the possibility that one of the more Reform-friendly firms may show an outright lead for the party in the near future - and then we'd really start to see what the horrifying prospect of a Farage government does to support for independence in Scotland.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Friday, December 13, 2024

Is the Alba leadership's right-wing stance on asylum seekers an early indication that they are intentionally reinventing the party as a "pro-indy Reform"?

It's just coincidence, but while I've been dealing over the last few weeks with the action the Alba Party leadership took against me, I've also been gradually making my way through the 1970s BBC drama series Shoulder to Shoulder, which covers the history of the suffragettes.  When I saw it was on iPlayer, it caught my eye, because it was repeated on BBC2 when I was a teenager, and I remember seeing a couple of episodes and thinking it was quite good.

My knowledge of the suffragettes was previously quite patchy, and one thing I didn't realise was that although Emmeline and Christabel Pankhurst initially set up the Women's Social and Political Union as a very democratic organisation, they later transformed it into an absolute dictatorship where no disagreement with their own policies or decisions was tolerated, and dissenters were instantly expelled.  Absurdly, that culminated in the expulsion of Sylvia Pankhurst, Emmeline's own daughter and Christabel's own sister.  Prior to that, the Pethick-Lawrences, who had built up the organisation almost from scratch, were unceremoniously expelled because they questioned the wisdom of militant tactics that incorporated severe law-breaking such as arson.

Emmeline and Christabel's justification was that they were at war with the government, and in a state of war you can't have democratic politics as usual - you need an unquestioned leader, an unquestioned chain of command, and iron discipline of members behind any decision taken.

Now, does that remind you of anything?  A few weeks ago, the Alba leadership sent out an email revealing that internal democracy within the party was going to be completely suspended for several months, and that was necessary because the current executive team was supposedly uniquely familiar with Alex Salmond's private strategic thinking and thus uniquely well-placed to interpret and carry forward his wishes and plans.  In other words, the party leadership now derives its legitimacy more from a kind of 'divine selection' (the words "Salmond blood" have even been used) than from democratic election.  Alba's mission going forward will be to identify and do whatever "Alex Salmond would have wanted" - or rather whatever the self-selecting elite say he would have wanted, which will not always necessarily be the same thing. Presumably this is justified because Mr Salmond was, in a sense, "at war" just like the Pankhursts were, and had an unparalleled insight as leader into how London rule in Scotland could be ended.

Because iron discipline behind Mr Salmond's strategies and plans is required, rank-and-file members who are unhappy with the party's direction have not been encouraged to use the party's internal democratic processes to make the case for change, but have instead been told that "perhaps Alba is not the party for you". (Chris McEleny literally said that a few months ago in an email reply to an Alba member.)  Those of us naive enough to assume that the internal democratic processes were there for a reason and that we could just get on with using them to press for change have found ourselves faced with trumped-up charges leading to either suspension or outright expulsion.  Many people, of course, have simply jumped before they were pushed.

Alba in its own self-image now resembles a Leninist-style "vanguard party", which prefers to have a small number of people slavishly loyal to the leadership rather than a much larger number of people who might bring with them a plurality of views and friendly democratic disagreement over policy and strategy.  That means the party has become the complete opposite of what it appeared to be when we all first joined in 2021.  At that time it seemed to be an "all comers' party" - to join all you needed to be was an independence supporter, and from there you would have an equal stake and an equal opportunity to shape the party's direction.  I remember, for example, the euphoria after an early Alba women's conference, when all of the women who had joined the party were able to get together and decide for themselves what the policy on women was going to be.  That certainly wouldn't be happening now.

It seems to me there are two big problems with Alba's authoritarian and disciplinarian approach. The first is that I don't think any political party can function as a sort of 'memorial stone' to one man.  It will become fossilised if it tries.  However fully-formed Mr Salmond's private strategy was, and however thoroughly the current leadership think they have digested it, politics is a dynamic process and there will always be unexpected changes of circumstances that you need to react to spontaneously and creatively.  Mr Salmond can no longer help with that.  The Alba Party will always need to have a leader grounded in the here and now - which means that person cannot be the de facto "deputy" to someone who is sadly no longer with us.

The second problem is that, if I'm being honest, I'm not convinced that Mr Salmond's strategies during his time as Alba leader would actually have led to independence.  When I was on the Alba NEC myself in 2021-22, there were a few things that concerned me.  I was worried about the ever-increasing chatter that Alba might stand a large number of candidates against the SNP at the Westminster general election, but whenever those worries were raised, we were basically told to shut down all thought about the subject for the time being and unite in the interim behind the "Scotland United" holding position.  The problem was that "Scotland United" struck me as part of a very obvious and transparent choreography preparing the ground for a large-scale Alba intervention at the general election, something which I assumed the leadership had already privately decided upon.  I retrospect it looks like my guess was right.  I thought we as the NEC should have been discussing, and perhaps challenging, the true underlying purpose of the Scotland United proposal.  But there was never any opportunity to do that.

Towards the end of my time on the NEC, Nicola Sturgeon unexpectedly announced her plan for a de facto referendum, and I was also baffled and dismayed by the Alba leadership's reaction to that.  I thought we should have embraced the news and dared Sturgeon to keep her word.  Instead, the prospect of an exercise in national self-determination seemed to weirdly antagonise the Alba leadership, who redoubled their determination to bring Nicola Sturgeon down as First Minister.  She eventually did resign, and what good did that do anyone?  Her only two possible successors fell over themselves to ditch the de facto at breakneck speed.  Now, I'm not naive enough to think that Sturgeon would have definitely kept her word if she'd stayed on.  But even if there'd been only a 1 in 10 chance of her seeing the de facto plan through, a true gambler would have given her that chance, because anything that replaced her was only going to move the cause of independence backwards.  No-one will ever dissuade me that the Alba leadership made a strategic blunder during that episode - always assuming, of course, that independence was actually the object of the exercise for them, rather than revenge against Nicola Sturgeon for its own sake.

The other startling thing about the Pankhursts is that, after moving to a dictatorship model, they also (with the honourable exception of Sylvia Pankhurst) moved away from their socialist roots in Keir Hardie's Independent Labour Party and swung dramatically rightwards.  Adela Pankhurst emigrated to Australia and eventually became an out-and-out fascist.  Emmeline and Christabel became born-again British nationalists during World War I, and endorsed the notorious 'white feather' movement on the grounds that young men owed it to women to lay down their lives for the Empire.  After the war, Emmeline brought her political transition to its natural conclusion by standing for parliament as a Tory.

Alba's authoritarian, 'vanguard party' turn does not automatically mean it will also shift to the right.  But there are some troubling signs.  Neale Hanvey has repeatedly praised Elon Musk to the skies and even publicly asked him for funding.  Numerous Alba spokespeople have demanded that Donald Trump should be treated with greater respect than (for example) the Greens are currently showing him, which strikes me as a very odd wedge issue to alight upon.  And today it was reported that Chris McEleny has broken ranks with all other progressive parties in the Scottish Parliament by defending the Tories for seeking the withholding of funds from asylum seekers.  All of these are examples of things Reform UK would be entirely comfortable saying.

Right from the start in 2021, some people tried to paint Alba as a right-wing party and I scorned that idea.  But for the first time I'm starting to wonder.  For some time now it's been pointed out in some quarters (including by me) that from a purely Machiavellian point of view, a right-wing pro-indy party with a degree of hostility to immigration might tap into a gap in the market and draw Yes voters away from Reform UK.  But if Mr McEleny has decided that Alba is going to be the party to fill that gap, it's an obvious slap in the face for anyone who joined Alba in the 2021 on the firm promise that it would be a left-leaning, social democratic party in the mould of the Salmond-era SNP.

Is Mr McEleny's pronouncement an example of "doing whatever Alex Salmond would have wanted"?  I can't deny the possibility that he's carrying out a pre-prepared, Salmond-endorsed plan, but ah hae ma doots.  Mr Salmond always used to reliably come down on the progressive side of most issues, and I struggle to imagine him even risking the appearance of demonising asylum seekers.  I suspect Mr McEleny has set in train what may be a lengthy process of doing things in Mr Salmond's name that Mr Salmond would not actually have done himself.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Another day, another Neale Hanvey tweet: without a shred of irony, he blasts the Green Party of England & Wales as "just unbelievable" and "completely out of control" for expelling Shahrar Ali (actually a two-year suspension with conditions on re-entry)

So are there any differences between Shahrar Ali and the people who have been purged from Alba?  I can only really think of one - Shahrar Ali didn't just criticise what his party's leadership were doing, he also took them to court.  Geoff Bush, myself and all the others that Mr McEleny has targeted for punitive action through the Alba "disciplinary" process have never done anything even remotely like that.

Incidentally, on the subject of the distinction between "expulsions" and "lengthy suspensions with conditions attached to re-entry", I heard on the grapevine recently that somebody who was supposedly "suspended for six months" by Alba (for a completely ludicrous reason, of course) got to the end of that six months, naturally assumed she'd automatically be able to resume her membership, but was instead informed by Mr McEleny that if she wanted to "rejoin" the party, she'd have to apply to the NEC for permission - which is precisely the same procedure as for someone who has been expelled or been deemed to have "publicly resigned from the party".  So it seems that in Alba, the distinction between suspension and expulsion is one of window-dressing only.

In case anyone wrongly assumes that only a relatively small percentage of the Alba membership is being affected by the McEleny Purges, I'd draw your attention to this comment on an earlier thread from a former Alba member - 

"James - you also have to bear in mind that the numbers of those who have left the Alba Party, either through resignation or stopping their subs, are considerably greater than those who have been expelled or suspended. Some of us were threatened in one way or another - with being expelled from a meeting for pressing a point, such as "where in the constitution does it say this?" We decided not to tolerate the kind of authoritarian and corrupt behaviour which seeks to pass constitutional amendments sight unseen by a conference (indeed some of us spoke out on this matter), but decides that competent constitutional amendments should not be seen by conference. The only effects of these competent constitutional amendments would have been:-

1) to permit Office Bearers to have a say about the work of HQ staff (rather than be dictated by the party chair and line managed by the unelected and unelectable General Secretary)

2) to prevent the General Secretary from redirecting complaints to himself, instead of referring them on to the Disciplinary Committee

3) to ensure that the correct representation on the Conference Committee was adhered to, according to the party constitution, so that NEC members could not dominate.

Of course, other matters, such as the dominance of that committee by the party chair and the failure of that committee to elect a chair on an annual basis, were more difficult to deal with, because of space on the conference agenda!"

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Sometimes fact is stranger than fiction: 32% of Reform UK voters in Scotland would vote Yes in a new independence referendum

A commenter on the previous thread said that he wished he could see "some Scottish polling cross tabs on support for Reform among Yes/No and Leave/Remain voters".  As it happens, that information is more or less available in the tables from the Norstat poll at the weekend.

Holyrood list voting intentions of those who would currently vote Yes in an independence referendum:

SNP 55%
Greens 11%
Labour 10%
Alba 8%
Reform UK 7%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Conservatives 5%

(Bear in mind the usual health warning that Norstat regularly overstate Alba's support.)

Holyrood list voting intentions of those who would currently vote No in an independence referendum:

Conservatives 32%
Labour 27%
Reform UK 18%
Liberal Democrats 15%
SNP 3%
Greens 2%
Alba 1%

What's striking here is just how appallingly badly the SNP do among No voters.  They're sometimes accused (sometimes even by me) of abandoning independence, but the public clearly don't see it that way, because if it wasn't for the support of Yessers, the SNP would barely even exist as an electoral force.  Reform UK do more than twice as well among Yes voters as the SNP do among No voters - perhaps due to the significant minority of Yessers who support Brexit, or perhaps due to the immigration issue.

How Reform UK voters on the Holyrood list would vote in a Scottish independence referendum:

Yes 32%
No 68%

There are no figures for how current Brexiteers and Remainers would vote on the Holyrood list - only for Remain and Leave voters from the actual 2016 referendum.

Holyrood list voting intentions of those who voted Remain in the 2016 EU referendum:

SNP 36%
Labour 20%
Conservatives 12%
Greens 10%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Reform UK 6%
Alba 5%
 
Holyrood list voting intentions of those who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum:

Conservatives 28%
Reform UK 25%
SNP 19%
Labour 12%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Alba 4%
Greens 2%

Also of interest is the breakdown by country of birth, which does not follow the pattern you'd intuitively expect.  6% of English-born respondents would vote Reform UK, compared with 13% of Scottish-born respondents.  Bear in mind, though, that the English-born subsample is relatively small, so the results may not be statistically reliable.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Il Sorpasso: new Britain-wide poll shows Reform UK overtaking the Tories to become the leading party of the right

I suppose in a way this poll is superficially a relief for Keir Starmer and Labour, because it shows them recovering three percentage points of support and bouncing back from third place to first.  However, the consequences for both themselves and the whole UK if future polls confirm that Reform UK has emerged as the leading party of the right will be incalculable.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 11th December 2024):

Labour 26% (+3)
Reform UK 25% (+1)
Conservatives 23% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
Greens 9% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

As I pointed out the other day, there no longer seems to be such an obvious ceiling on Reform UK support, because polls show that only a minority of people in Britain are now actively hostile to Farage.  He obviously has more charisma than Kemi Badenoch, it looks like he may soon have more funding than she does.  A few high-profile defections from Tory to Reform could lead to enough Tory voters following suit to push Reform to the kind of level of support (say 35%) at which it could win a general election in 2028 or 2029 and form a government.

I remain of the view that the opening up of this horrific possibility makes Scottish independence considerably more likely.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

"There were reasons. What's that? You want me to tell you what the reasons were? Oh, you know, reasons. Reasons of some description. Reasons of a distinctly reason-type variety. Look, please stop asking me what the reasons were, you're upsetting me. YOU KNOW THE REASONS!"

My final reply was a quote-tweet, because "Nodrog" blocked me before I could reply directly.  But perish the thought that he was concerned about getting himself into a pickle if he was pressed any further.

As far as Neale Hanvey is concerned, I do have to say that his timing in making a renewed song and dance over the last week about bullying, unjust expulsions and forced departures in the SNP has been truly extraordinary.  It's one thing to turn a blind eye to bullying, unjust expulsions and forced departures in your own party, but to do that while repeatedly lambasting exactly the same behaviour in a rival party, is a pretty blatant double-standard.  Indeed there's a rather more direct word for it than double-standard.  I and others publicly supported Neale when he was unjustly suspended from the SNP in the middle of the 2019 general election, but so far there's been no support coming in the reciprocal direction.  In fact the silence has been deafening.

To return to "Nodrog", I was trying to think who he reminded me of when he kept insisting there were "reasons" but refused to provide any specifics.  But then another tweet came along and I suddenly remembered in a blinding flash - 

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

If Alba intervene in constituency races in 2026, they will harm independence and harm themselves on the list

It's being reported in the Press & Journal that Christina Hendry, the niece of the late Alex Salmond, is planning to stand as an Alba candidate in the Banffshire & Buchan Coast constituency in the 2026 Holyrood election.  Mr Salmond was previously planning to do so himself, and although I always thought it was extremely unwise to abandon Alba's status from 2021 as a list-only party, it was at least possible to construct a case that as the former MP and MSP for the area, and as a major national figure, he would have been competitive and might have had an outside chance of winning.  

By contrast, Ms Hendry is little-known and her chances of winning are zero.  So if she takes a non-trivial share of the vote, the only possible effect of that will be to increase the chances of a Tory win in what is an extremely tight SNP-Tory marginal.  The SNP won by a margin of just 2.3% in 2021, and in the equivalent Westminster seat the margin was identical in July's general election, in spite of Douglas Ross' very best efforts to hand the seat to the SNP on a plate.

If I can just gently say to Alba members (I was one myself until a few days ago), I know how angry you are with the SNP, and I totally understand that anger because it's very unlikely that independence will be seriously pursued for as long as John Swinney is SNP leader.  But there is no scenario in which replacing an SNP constituency MSP with a Tory constituency MSP can help the cause of independence.  It can only do harm.

The place to offer a radical pro-independence alternative to the SNP is on the list ballot, where seats can actually be won.  Playing silly buggers on the constituency ballot can only detract from that alternative. Remember that Alba was explicitly launched in 2021 as a list-only party, and by going down this new path, the party is simply underscoring how much the original concept has mutated since then.  Rather than a cooperative party that wants to work with others to bring about independence, Alba now looks like a harm-the-SNP-for-harm's-sake party, which if anything will put Yes supporters off from backing the party on the list.

For full disclosure, Christina Hendry is a member of Alba's Disciplinary Committee, and although I was only allowed into last week's hearing for a fleeting few minutes, I did see her there (I think she was one of about five or six in attendance), and based on views I've heard her express in the past, I do not have the slightest doubt that she will have been one of the people who voted for my expulsion from the party.  But regular readers will know that hasn't affected what I've said above, because I've been consistently saying exactly the same thing since I joined Alba in the spring of 2021 - except in very rare circumstances (such as by-elections where a high-profile candidate is available), the party should avoid first-past-the-post contests and focus entirely on proportional representation elections where there is actually a chance of getting elected.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

An unweighted Yes vote of 60.4% in the Norstat poll became 53.8% in the weighted results

Similar to that sensation of 'feeling your ears burning', I can sometimes sense when Professor John Robertson of Global Ferry News fame is about to write a snarky blogpost about Scot Goes Pop, because it's often presaged by him attempting to leave a comment here.  There was a comment yesterday or the day before with all the usual hallmarks, so I took a look at his blog, and this time there was no post about SGP, but what I did find was a post with the following headline: "Did the Sunday Times hide around 60% support for independence by dramatically reducing the number of 2014 Yes voters in their poll sample from 387 down to only 278?"

That's what John Rentoul would call a QTWTAIN (Question To Which The Answer Is No).  Of course the Sunday Times did no such thing - they have no role in determining the weightings used in any poll, they would never think of making such a request and Norstat would refuse such a request if it was made.  That said, I've looked at the data tables and it's true that the difference between the unweighted and the weighted numbers is pretty extreme.  The Yes vote in the unweighted numbers is 60.4%, whereas in the weighted numbers it's 53.8%.  OK, even normal demographic weightings can often bring down the Yes vote, because there might be too many young people in a sample, or too many SNP voters, or whatever.  But I very much doubt if that sort of thing would have had quite such a dramatic effect - the major explanation in this case is almost certainly direct weighting by each respondent's recollection of how they voted in the 2014 referendum, which of course took place more than a decade ago, thus opening up a risk of significant levels of false recall.  That's one of the reasons Ipsos have cited for not weighting by recalled 2014 vote, incidentally.

In the overall Norstat sample, before the likelihood to vote filter is applied, 43.9% of respondents claim to recall voting Yes in 2014, and only 30.0% claim to recall voting No.  A drastic adjustment has been made to bring those numbers into line with the actual 2014 result.  In fairness, there was initially a very good reason for introducing 2014 weighting, because polling companies had systemically overestimated the Yes vote by a small amount in the 2014 campaign.  But after more than a decade that adjustment is getting harder and harder to justify, and it's impossible to rule out the possibility that it may be artificially skewing poll results towards No and giving us a totally false impression of the state of play.  It must be very unusual to weight poll results by an electoral event that took place more than ten years ago - I'm struggling to think of any other examples of that happening, even internationally.  Somewhere in the deepest recesses of their minds, the heads of polling firms must be gearing up towards a review of this problem, sooner or later.  

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We should now think about calling a national holiday, because that rarest of rare things has just happened - Chris McEleny has actually responded to an email.  Apparently the clerk of the committee will be in touch in due course about the arrangements for my appeal against expulsion from the Alba Party.  I'll be interested to see what "in due course" actually means, because from my recollection of the party constitution (which I can no longer read because I'm barred from the party website), the appeal is supposed to be heard within an extremely tight timetable.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

I have now lodged my appeal against expulsion from the Alba Party

So some personal news - a few minutes ago I emailed Chris McEleny to inform him that I wish to appeal against the Disciplinary Committee's decision last Thursday night to expel me from the Alba Party, and to set out my reasons for appealing - which, as you can imagine, are extremely extensive.  I would have preferred to take a bit longer over the preparation of my appeal submission, but one of the frustrations of this process has been the way that Alba HQ has allowed it to endlessly drag on, and I don't want to give them any excuse for further delay.

As I've noted before, Mr McEleny has completely ignored all of the emails I have sent him throughout the "disciplinary" process (with the possible exception of one).  It must be hoped that he would not pull a stunt like that again, given that under the Alba constitution, my right to lodge an appeal is absolute and unconditional.  Unfortunately, though, I was told by one of the people who were expelled from the party earlier this year that he had tried to lodge an appeal but his email was completely ignored.  As far as I know that appeal never took place. So, as a precaution, I've copied my email to the Deputy General Secretary Corri Wilson, to the party chair Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, and also to Suzanne Blackley, who as far as I know is still convener of the Appeals Committee.  I haven't copied it to the acting party leader Kenny MacAskill yet, but I will do if it becomes necessary.

I would hope that things will be done by the book this time, but I've learned to have extremely low expectations.

Questions for Pat McFadden

The Labour Cabinet minister Pat McFadden was asked on Sky News about Israel's illegal invasion of Syria, and he replied that Israel was "making sure its position in the Golan is secure".  That's a rather startling line of argument, because the Golan Heights is not part of Israel - it's only controlled by Israel because of a previous illegal invasion of Syria during the Six Day War of 1967.  Almost every country in the world continues to recognise the Golan as an integral part of Syria, and the UK is no exception.  So McFadden seems to genuinely believe that the desire to make one illegally occupied part of Syria "secure for Israel" is a perfectly logical and reasonable excuse for illegally invading yet another part of Syria.

McFadden was then asked by Kay Burley whether the UK supported Israel's actions, and he replied "We will always support Israel's right to defend itself and make itself secure".  That's a very clear answer - he had already characterised Israel's invasion as an exercise in "making itself secure", and given that the UK will "always" support any such action, he is therefore inescapably saying that the UK supports Israel's illegal invasion of land that the UK regards as Syrian sovereign territory.

This raises a number of obvious questions - 

1) Given that the Labour leadership characterised 7th October as a Hamas invasion of Israel, and said that Israel had a right to "defend herself" against the invasion, does Syria also have a right to "defend herself" against the Israeli invasion?

2) If not, why not?  Is it because "invasions to feel secure" are in a different category from other types of invasions?  If so, who makes the certification?  Indeed, is it a self-certification process?  Did the invasion become acceptable simply because Israel put out a press release saying they were invading for security?  Isn't that pretty much what Russia did when it invaded Ukraine?

3) Does the Labour blank cheque of "always" supporting invasions to help secure previously conquered territory only apply to Israel, or can other countries benefit from this exciting opportunity?  

4) If it's an Israel-only thing, what can other countries do to become more like Israel and gain similar special privileges?  Perhaps they could install a fugitive from justice, wanted by the world's highest court for war crimes, as their head of government?  Hang on, doesn't that describe Russia again?

5) Come to think of it, if you were trying to work out whether a country's claim to have illegally invaded a neighbouring sovereign state "for security" was a cock-and-bull story or not, wouldn't you normally be inclined to be more sceptical rather than less sceptical if that country happened to be led by a wanted war criminal?

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The US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller is without doubt one of the most preposterous, grotesque figures of the modern age, but even he exceeded himself on the hypocrisy stakes by declaring that it would be good if the International Criminal Court took action against Assad, because the US supports the work of the ICC and it only ever had a dispute with them over "jurisdiction" on the question of the arrest warrant for Netanyahu.  Hmmm.  What Biden actually said about the Netanyahu warrant was that it was "outrageous", and that it implied there was moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas, and that America would always stand with its beloved Bibi.  Yeah, that sounds very much like a minor technical quibble over jurisdiction.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Monday, December 9, 2024

Norstat poll reveals John Swinney is settling into the role and showing sureness-of-touch - and he made a great speech at conference

Before anyone bites my head off, the headline is merely a running in-joke from the comments section.

The Sunday Times paywall was proving more of a barrier than usual to finding out the full Norstat poll results on Saturday night, but I've now caught up with the remaining results, which are basically leadership ratings and questions about the Scottish Budget.  The leadership figures in particular bolster the impression that the 2026 election is now very much the SNP's to lose.

Net ratings for party leaders:

John Swinney (SNP): -7
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -17
Russell Findlay (Conservatives): - 25
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -29
Keir Starmer (Labour): -32

I think the public, both north and south of the border, have now made up their minds about Starmer, and his personal ratings are likely to remain thoroughly dismal for however long he stays on as Prime Minister - barring some kind of freakish event akin to the Falklands War or the pandemic.  So that means he's going to be a millstone around the neck of Labour in Scotland going into the election, and to offset that effect they would really want to have a very popular leader at Scottish level.  Instead Sarwar continues to trail Swinney and by a bigger margin than before.

It's been ages since we last saw a head-to-head Swinney v Sarwar "Who would be the best First Minister?" question from Redfield & Wilton, but if a poll like that was conducted now I would be amazed if it didn't show a big Swinney lead - remember that even Humza Yousaf usually led Sarwar on the head-to-head, despite being behind Sarwar on the net ratings.

So far at least, the Budget has proved to be very shrewd and effective in terms of its political impact, with overwhelming public support for four of the six specific measures that Norstat polled about.  The two more controversial items were ending the two-child cap, which is supported by the public but only by a margin of 38% to 27%, and free bus travel for asylum seekers, which depressingly is opposed by the public by a significant margin of 48% to 25%.  Interestingly, after the UK Budget, polls showed that voters were in favour of Rachel Reeves' individual measures but didn't like the package as a whole, whereas in the Norstat poll more respondents think the Scottish Budget will make themselves better off than think it will make them worse off, and a plurality think it will also make the country as a whole better off.  So that looks like a comprehensive success story for Shona Robison and John Swinney.

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Sunday, December 8, 2024

"Is that legal?"

I'm sorry, I know there are far more important things going in the world, today of all days, but I just cannot resist posting this, it's just too good to ignore.  Stuart Campbell is clearly smarting about me pointing out last night that his claim on Tuesday that there is "zero" chance of a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament after 2026 has been left looking a bit silly by today's Norstat poll showing the SNP and Greens on course for a majority between them.  His response has been to post two catty tweets. The first was mocking me for mentioning the possibility of standing on the Central Scotland list as a pro-indy independent candidate (which yes, I meant seriously, but it's just one of several possibilities I'm mulling over now that Alba have left me as a free agent through no choice of my own, and it's not the most likely one).  

But the second tweet was a truly bonkers whinge about some obscure thing he's alleging I did to a blog comment (without, of course, providing a shred of evidence) on THE TWELFTH OF AUGUST, and which four months later he's suddenly decided is a scandal on a par with Watergate.  What makes this just sheer bloody exquisite perfection is Rab Dickson's "Is that legal?" reply, which you just know he meant absolutely seriously, and which forced Mr Campbell to patiently explain to him like a toddler that yes, Rab, of course it's legal.

A great pity.  For half a second I thought I was facing the sequel to the "Wings Of Justice" campaign, and that I might end up with a policeman at my door asking me "now then, what's this I 'ear about you nobbling blog comments?"

Maybe Campbell would have had more luck with me than he did with Dugdale.  But alas, we shall never know.

More analysis of the astonishing Norstat poll showing Yes at 54%

Just a quick note to let you know I have a new article at The National about the new Norstat poll showing that Yes would decisively win any new independence referendum, and that the SNP and Greens are on course to retain the overall pro-independence majority at Holyrood.  You can read the piece HERE.

Incidentally, it's been pointed out numerous times today that 54% is the highest Yes vote in any Norstat/Panelbase poll since four years ago.  It suddenly dawned on me that poll four years ago was actually commissioned by Scot Goes Pop.  It was a Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop poll conducted between the 5th and 11th of November 2020, and it showed Yes on 56% and No on 44%.  Maybe, just maybe, those days are back.