A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - one of Scotland's five most-read political blogs.
Saturday, December 14, 2024
Reform UK support climbs to new high watermark in Techne poll
Friday, December 13, 2024
Is the Alba leadership's right-wing stance on asylum seekers an early indication that they are intentionally reinventing the party as a "pro-indy Reform"?
Oh for pity's sake, what is happening to this party? If you're going to find wedge issues, does it really have to be "we must be much more respectful to Donald Trump" and "it's not racist to make asylum seekers more destitute"? https://t.co/RJdSShoeEX
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 13, 2024
With this level of analysis it’s no wonder why your blog has such poor readership. https://t.co/G9dJFbcj2o
— Robert Reid (@robertreidALBA) December 13, 2024
Well, at least the mask has slipped now, Robert. Let me put it this way: that tweet is entirely worthy of you.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 13, 2024
Another day, another Neale Hanvey tweet: without a shred of irony, he blasts the Green Party of England & Wales as "just unbelievable" and "completely out of control" for expelling Shahrar Ali (actually a two-year suspension with conditions on re-entry)
UPDATE on Kafka Party: Surprise, Surprise! Today I've received notification of a two-year expulsion from the Green Party (plus other Kafkaesque conditions on readmission). They've sat on this decision for 4 weeks (in violation of our own rules), after already having been forced…
— Shahrar Ali (@ShahrarAli) December 12, 2024
It’s just unbelievable. It seems they are not only out of their depth but completely out of control. Keep up the sterling work Shahrar ✊
— Neale Hanvey ALBA🏴 (@JNHanvey) December 13, 2024
I'm sorry, Neale, but that comment is just astounding. What's happened to Shahrar is dreadful, but the Greens have actually treated him slightly more leniently than Alba treated Geoff Bush, myself and many others. When will you start speaking out about zealotry in your own party? https://t.co/8akPx0sHqG
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 13, 2024
So are there any differences between Shahrar Ali and the people who have been purged from Alba? I can only really think of one - Shahrar Ali didn't just criticise what his party's leadership were doing, he also took them to court. Geoff Bush, myself and all the others that Mr McEleny has targeted for punitive action through the Alba "disciplinary" process have never done anything even remotely like that.
Incidentally, on the subject of the distinction between "expulsions" and "lengthy suspensions with conditions attached to re-entry", I heard on the grapevine recently that somebody who was supposedly "suspended for six months" by Alba (for a completely ludicrous reason, of course) got to the end of that six months, naturally assumed she'd automatically be able to resume her membership, but was instead informed by Mr McEleny that if she wanted to "rejoin" the party, she'd have to apply to the NEC for permission - which is precisely the same procedure as for someone who has been expelled or been deemed to have "publicly resigned from the party". So it seems that in Alba, the distinction between suspension and expulsion is one of window-dressing only.
In case anyone wrongly assumes that only a relatively small percentage of the Alba membership is being affected by the McEleny Purges, I'd draw your attention to this comment on an earlier thread from a former Alba member -
"James - you also have to bear in mind that the numbers of those who have left the Alba Party, either through resignation or stopping their subs, are considerably greater than those who have been expelled or suspended. Some of us were threatened in one way or another - with being expelled from a meeting for pressing a point, such as "where in the constitution does it say this?" We decided not to tolerate the kind of authoritarian and corrupt behaviour which seeks to pass constitutional amendments sight unseen by a conference (indeed some of us spoke out on this matter), but decides that competent constitutional amendments should not be seen by conference. The only effects of these competent constitutional amendments would have been:-
1) to permit Office Bearers to have a say about the work of HQ staff (rather than be dictated by the party chair and line managed by the unelected and unelectable General Secretary)
2) to prevent the General Secretary from redirecting complaints to himself, instead of referring them on to the Disciplinary Committee
3) to ensure that the correct representation on the Conference Committee was adhered to, according to the party constitution, so that NEC members could not dominate.
Of course, other matters, such as the dominance of that committee by the party chair and the failure of that committee to elect a chair on an annual basis, were more difficult to deal with, because of space on the conference agenda!"
Oh for pity's sake, what is happening to this party? If you're going to find wedge issues, does it really have to be "we must be much more respectful to Donald Trump" and "it's not racist to make asylum seekers more destitute"? https://t.co/RJdSShoeEX
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 13, 2024
Thursday, December 12, 2024
Sometimes fact is stranger than fiction: 32% of Reform UK voters in Scotland would vote Yes in a new independence referendum
Il Sorpasso: new Britain-wide poll shows Reform UK overtaking the Tories to become the leading party of the right
I suppose in a way this poll is superficially a relief for Keir Starmer and Labour, because it shows them recovering three percentage points of support and bouncing back from third place to first. However, the consequences for both themselves and the whole UK if future polls confirm that Reform UK has emerged as the leading party of the right will be incalculable.
Britain-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 11th December 2024):
"There were reasons. What's that? You want me to tell you what the reasons were? Oh, you know, reasons. Reasons of some description. Reasons of a distinctly reason-type variety. Look, please stop asking me what the reasons were, you're upsetting me. YOU KNOW THE REASONS!"
All of the abuse, all of the bullying, all of the smears and being forced out of @theSNP by gender zealots.
— Neale Hanvey ALBA🏴 (@JNHanvey) December 11, 2024
It was all worth it to protect young people from the rumination of their futures from charlatans who sought to arrest their development in a child like sate with the lie… https://t.co/Hi7HcG5U6w
Expulsions are taking place in Alba too, Neale, let's be honest. Are the people responsible for that also "zealots"?
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 11, 2024
Who & why?
— Bonnie Bloo (@Blutooner) December 12, 2024
Me, last week. Geoff Bush a few weeks ago. There was at least one other expulsion this year, but I won't reveal that person's name because I don't think it's in the public domain.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 12, 2024
As for the 'why', there is no why, except for saying things the leadership don't want to hear.
Give your head a wobble. You know the reasons why!
— Nodrog (@Nodrog83490806) December 12, 2024
Sorry, what the hell is that supposed to mean? Specifics, please. What are you alleging the reasons were? The floor's all yours, Nodrog. Give your tongue a wobble and spill the beans. In your own time.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 12, 2024
You can repost as many times as you want 🤣🤣 but your truth varies greatly to actual reality. Go bother someone else.
— Nodrog (@Nodrog83490806) December 12, 2024
"Go bother someone else"? You replied to me, not vice versa. Nice try, but you don't get off the hook that way. You claim to know the reasons for the Alba expulsions, but when pressed for specifics seem to clam up. Try again. What are these reasons?https://t.co/UW6VMTXFPN
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 12, 2024
My final reply was a quote-tweet, because "Nodrog" blocked me before I could reply directly. But perish the thought that he was concerned about getting himself into a pickle if he was pressed any further.
As far as Neale Hanvey is concerned, I do have to say that his timing in making a renewed song and dance over the last week about bullying, unjust expulsions and forced departures in the SNP has been truly extraordinary. It's one thing to turn a blind eye to bullying, unjust expulsions and forced departures in your own party, but to do that while repeatedly lambasting exactly the same behaviour in a rival party, is a pretty blatant double-standard. Indeed there's a rather more direct word for it than double-standard. I and others publicly supported Neale when he was unjustly suspended from the SNP in the middle of the 2019 general election, but so far there's been no support coming in the reciprocal direction. In fact the silence has been deafening.
To return to "Nodrog", I was trying to think who he reminded me of when he kept insisting there were "reasons" but refused to provide any specifics. But then another tweet came along and I suddenly remembered in a blinding flash -
Alba MSP @AshReganALBA has handed her Christmas list to ‘Santa’….
— Alan Smith (@Political_AlanS) December 12, 2024
Free school meals for all primary pupils tops the list pic.twitter.com/Nm489SsYJ0
All I got from Santa McEleny / Chris Claus was a sack of coal. https://t.co/lA6BHMudPk
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 12, 2024
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
If Alba intervene in constituency races in 2026, they will harm independence and harm themselves on the list
An unweighted Yes vote of 60.4% in the Norstat poll became 53.8% in the weighted results
Similar to that sensation of 'feeling your ears burning', I can sometimes sense when Professor John Robertson of Global Ferry News fame is about to write a snarky blogpost about Scot Goes Pop, because it's often presaged by him attempting to leave a comment here. There was a comment yesterday or the day before with all the usual hallmarks, so I took a look at his blog, and this time there was no post about SGP, but what I did find was a post with the following headline: "Did the Sunday Times hide around 60% support for independence by dramatically reducing the number of 2014 Yes voters in their poll sample from 387 down to only 278?"
That's what John Rentoul would call a QTWTAIN (Question To Which The Answer Is No). Of course the Sunday Times did no such thing - they have no role in determining the weightings used in any poll, they would never think of making such a request and Norstat would refuse such a request if it was made. That said, I've looked at the data tables and it's true that the difference between the unweighted and the weighted numbers is pretty extreme. The Yes vote in the unweighted numbers is 60.4%, whereas in the weighted numbers it's 53.8%. OK, even normal demographic weightings can often bring down the Yes vote, because there might be too many young people in a sample, or too many SNP voters, or whatever. But I very much doubt if that sort of thing would have had quite such a dramatic effect - the major explanation in this case is almost certainly direct weighting by each respondent's recollection of how they voted in the 2014 referendum, which of course took place more than a decade ago, thus opening up a risk of significant levels of false recall. That's one of the reasons Ipsos have cited for not weighting by recalled 2014 vote, incidentally.
In the overall Norstat sample, before the likelihood to vote filter is applied, 43.9% of respondents claim to recall voting Yes in 2014, and only 30.0% claim to recall voting No. A drastic adjustment has been made to bring those numbers into line with the actual 2014 result. In fairness, there was initially a very good reason for introducing 2014 weighting, because polling companies had systemically overestimated the Yes vote by a small amount in the 2014 campaign. But after more than a decade that adjustment is getting harder and harder to justify, and it's impossible to rule out the possibility that it may be artificially skewing poll results towards No and giving us a totally false impression of the state of play. It must be very unusual to weight poll results by an electoral event that took place more than ten years ago - I'm struggling to think of any other examples of that happening, even internationally. Somewhere in the deepest recesses of their minds, the heads of polling firms must be gearing up towards a review of this problem, sooner or later.
* * *
We should now think about calling a national holiday, because that rarest of rare things has just happened - Chris McEleny has actually responded to an email. Apparently the clerk of the committee will be in touch in due course about the arrangements for my appeal against expulsion from the Alba Party. I'll be interested to see what "in due course" actually means, because from my recollection of the party constitution (which I can no longer read because I'm barred from the party website), the appeal is supposed to be heard within an extremely tight timetable.
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
I have now lodged my appeal against expulsion from the Alba Party
So some personal news - a few minutes ago I emailed Chris McEleny to inform him that I wish to appeal against the Disciplinary Committee's decision last Thursday night to expel me from the Alba Party, and to set out my reasons for appealing - which, as you can imagine, are extremely extensive. I would have preferred to take a bit longer over the preparation of my appeal submission, but one of the frustrations of this process has been the way that Alba HQ has allowed it to endlessly drag on, and I don't want to give them any excuse for further delay.
As I've noted before, Mr McEleny has completely ignored all of the emails I have sent him throughout the "disciplinary" process (with the possible exception of one). It must be hoped that he would not pull a stunt like that again, given that under the Alba constitution, my right to lodge an appeal is absolute and unconditional. Unfortunately, though, I was told by one of the people who were expelled from the party earlier this year that he had tried to lodge an appeal but his email was completely ignored. As far as I know that appeal never took place. So, as a precaution, I've copied my email to the Deputy General Secretary Corri Wilson, to the party chair Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, and also to Suzanne Blackley, who as far as I know is still convener of the Appeals Committee. I haven't copied it to the acting party leader Kenny MacAskill yet, but I will do if it becomes necessary.
I would hope that things will be done by the book this time, but I've learned to have extremely low expectations.
Questions for Pat McFadden
The Labour Cabinet minister Pat McFadden was asked on Sky News about Israel's illegal invasion of Syria, and he replied that Israel was "making sure its position in the Golan is secure". That's a rather startling line of argument, because the Golan Heights is not part of Israel - it's only controlled by Israel because of a previous illegal invasion of Syria during the Six Day War of 1967. Almost every country in the world continues to recognise the Golan as an integral part of Syria, and the UK is no exception. So McFadden seems to genuinely believe that the desire to make one illegally occupied part of Syria "secure for Israel" is a perfectly logical and reasonable excuse for illegally invading yet another part of Syria.
McFadden was then asked by Kay Burley whether the UK supported Israel's actions, and he replied "We will always support Israel's right to defend itself and make itself secure". That's a very clear answer - he had already characterised Israel's invasion as an exercise in "making itself secure", and given that the UK will "always" support any such action, he is therefore inescapably saying that the UK supports Israel's illegal invasion of land that the UK regards as Syrian sovereign territory.
This raises a number of obvious questions -
1) Given that the Labour leadership characterised 7th October as a Hamas invasion of Israel, and said that Israel had a right to "defend herself" against the invasion, does Syria also have a right to "defend herself" against the Israeli invasion?
2) If not, why not? Is it because "invasions to feel secure" are in a different category from other types of invasions? If so, who makes the certification? Indeed, is it a self-certification process? Did the invasion become acceptable simply because Israel put out a press release saying they were invading for security? Isn't that pretty much what Russia did when it invaded Ukraine?
3) Does the Labour blank cheque of "always" supporting invasions to help secure previously conquered territory only apply to Israel, or can other countries benefit from this exciting opportunity?
4) If it's an Israel-only thing, what can other countries do to become more like Israel and gain similar special privileges? Perhaps they could install a fugitive from justice, wanted by the world's highest court for war crimes, as their head of government? Hang on, doesn't that describe Russia again?
5) Come to think of it, if you were trying to work out whether a country's claim to have illegally invaded a neighbouring sovereign state "for security" was a cock-and-bull story or not, wouldn't you normally be inclined to be more sceptical rather than less sceptical if that country happened to be led by a wanted war criminal?
* * *
The US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller is without doubt one of the most preposterous, grotesque figures of the modern age, but even he exceeded himself on the hypocrisy stakes by declaring that it would be good if the International Criminal Court took action against Assad, because the US supports the work of the ICC and it only ever had a dispute with them over "jurisdiction" on the question of the arrest warrant for Netanyahu. Hmmm. What Biden actually said about the Netanyahu warrant was that it was "outrageous", and that it implied there was moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas, and that America would always stand with its beloved Bibi. Yeah, that sounds very much like a minor technical quibble over jurisdiction.
Monday, December 9, 2024
Norstat poll reveals John Swinney is settling into the role and showing sureness-of-touch - and he made a great speech at conference
Before anyone bites my head off, the headline is merely a running in-joke from the comments section.
The Sunday Times paywall was proving more of a barrier than usual to finding out the full Norstat poll results on Saturday night, but I've now caught up with the remaining results, which are basically leadership ratings and questions about the Scottish Budget. The leadership figures in particular bolster the impression that the 2026 election is now very much the SNP's to lose.
Net ratings for party leaders:
Sunday, December 8, 2024
"Is that legal?"
I'm sorry, I know there are far more important things going in the world, today of all days, but I just cannot resist posting this, it's just too good to ignore. Stuart Campbell is clearly smarting about me pointing out last night that his claim on Tuesday that there is "zero" chance of a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament after 2026 has been left looking a bit silly by today's Norstat poll showing the SNP and Greens on course for a majority between them. His response has been to post two catty tweets. The first was mocking me for mentioning the possibility of standing on the Central Scotland list as a pro-indy independent candidate (which yes, I meant seriously, but it's just one of several possibilities I'm mulling over now that Alba have left me as a free agent through no choice of my own, and it's not the most likely one).
But the second tweet was a truly bonkers whinge about some obscure thing he's alleging I did to a blog comment (without, of course, providing a shred of evidence) on THE TWELFTH OF AUGUST, and which four months later he's suddenly decided is a scandal on a par with Watergate. What makes this just sheer bloody exquisite perfection is Rab Dickson's "Is that legal?" reply, which you just know he meant absolutely seriously, and which forced Mr Campbell to patiently explain to him like a toddler that yes, Rab, of course it's legal.
A great pity. For half a second I thought I was facing the sequel to the "Wings Of Justice" campaign, and that I might end up with a policeman at my door asking me "now then, what's this I 'ear about you nobbling blog comments?"
Maybe Campbell would have had more luck with me than he did with Dugdale. But alas, we shall never know.
I try not to pay too much attention to poor mad James Kelly, but this is actually beyond the pale - editing his reader comments to change them from criticism of him to criticism of me. I wonder how regularly he does it? I suspect a lot. pic.twitter.com/3urZ2viJSs
— Wings Over Scotland (@WingsScotland) December 8, 2024
Is that legal?
— Rab (@Rab_Dickson1) December 8, 2024
More analysis of the astonishing Norstat poll showing Yes at 54%
Just a quick note to let you know I have a new article at The National about the new Norstat poll showing that Yes would decisively win any new independence referendum, and that the SNP and Greens are on course to retain the overall pro-independence majority at Holyrood. You can read the piece HERE.
Incidentally, it's been pointed out numerous times today that 54% is the highest Yes vote in any Norstat/Panelbase poll since four years ago. It suddenly dawned on me that poll four years ago was actually commissioned by Scot Goes Pop. It was a Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop poll conducted between the 5th and 11th of November 2020, and it showed Yes on 56% and No on 44%. Maybe, just maybe, those days are back.