I suppose in a way this poll is superficially a relief for Keir Starmer and Labour, because it shows them recovering three percentage points of support and bouncing back from third place to first. However, the consequences for both themselves and the whole UK if future polls confirm that Reform UK has emerged as the leading party of the right will be incalculable.
Britain-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 11th December 2024):
Labour 26% (+3)
Reform UK 25% (+1)
Conservatives 23% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-)
Greens 9% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
As I pointed out the other day, there no longer seems to be such an obvious ceiling on Reform UK support, because polls show that only a minority of people in Britain are now actively hostile to Farage. He obviously has more charisma than Kemi Badenoch, it looks like he may soon have more funding than she does. A few high-profile defections from Tory to Reform could lead to enough Tory voters following suit to push Reform to the kind of level of support (say 35%) at which it could win a general election in 2028 or 2029 and form a government.
I remain of the view that the opening up of this horrific possibility makes Scottish independence considerably more likely.
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I'd love to see some Scottish polling cross tabs on support for Reform among Yes/No and Leave/Remain voters.
ReplyDeleteSomething tells me No/Remainers will be terrified of them, and just as scunnered on Prime Minister Farage as Yes/Remainers. His rise could drive them toward independence.
Scotland voted 2:1 Remain, remember. So No/Leavers aren't significant as the great big chunk of Scots who voted No/Remain. The smallest of the four groups: Yes/Leavers (I know several) are a wildcard, as Reform appeals to one side of their worldview while independence does the other. Those I know would all still vote Yes, even if Indy Scotland was applying to rejoin Europe on day one. But several are also considering voting for Reform, to put a rocket up the SNP's backside.
You have to laugh at Nats. They always remind us Scotland voted remain but seem to have forgotten Scotland voted No in that “once in a generation “referendum ten years ago.
DeleteI mentioned No voters specifically in my post, ya diddy. No/Remainers are the group that will win us Indy. Convince them and your precioussss union is Nigel's next empty fag packet.
DeleteOnce in generation. Salmond said it and was taken as gospel. There's no mention of 'once in a generation' in the Edinburgh Agreement ( ever read it ?). The only people who mention 'once a generation are ignorant English Tories. You must be one.
DeleteEat your cereal.
DeleteI’m pleased the Tories surprised me and picked a non-white non-male leader. That alone makes Reform's rise more likely. And, like you said, talk about a recruiting sergeant for independence!
ReplyDelete"because polls show that only a minority of people in Britain are now actively hostile to Farage."
ReplyDeleteIn fairness if you were in a pub in Edinburgh minding your own business and making sure nobody spat in your pint, and were forced to make a choice between being locked in with Farage, Badenoch or Starmer - which would you choose?
Starmer. I'd like to bend his ear, see him squirm, and get a sense of how he really ticks.
DeleteFarage we already understand. He's a spiv. And Kemi is irrelevant.
It might make independence more likely, or we might just end up with a Reform government and stay inside the UK. I don’t know it’s worth the risk.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the circumstances where a Labour or Tory government "gives" us independence when Reform would not?
DeleteHonest question. For me, the UK's door is already locked and bolted. It's going to need a good firm push from us, whoever it is doon south.
"Worth the risk" is an odd way of putting it. Whether or not there is a Reform UK government in London is not a choice that any of us will be making - it'll be an English (and possibly Welsh) decision. All we can do is react to that decision when it's made.
DeleteEntirely correct. Scotland (and Wales, with less seats now than ever) just doesn't matter at the UK level. Our resources are our only contribution as far as they're concerned. And I’m sure Prime Minister Farage will be rapacious.
DeleteMy most humble evening salutations to you all.
ReplyDeleteHow simply too too divine to be on your company.
DeleteAye , yes indeed it's all aboot resources. They had oor oil fae 50 years . And noo , they'll will continue takin oor energy...... those wonderful renewables - wind farms ( oops nae power tae speak over the last 5 days , nae wind! And by the way maist are on peat and certainly give oot CO2) . Battery farms everywhere and dirty great muckle holes dug oot in the hills fae pump hydro. And we get charged mair fir it!..
ReplyDeleteGREAT BRITISH ENERGY!
Scotland is a country, not a county. It's no yours. It's ours.
DeleteI've always been of the opinion Independence will happen rather quickly. What I mean by that is events or even just an Event (A Reform General Election win) could be a catalyst that there is no turning back from.
ReplyDeleteI just wish we didn't have to go through the pain first.
Dream on.
Delete