Saturday, November 27, 2021

IPSO is a sham regulator which knowingly issues rulings that endorse lies as the truth - and THIS is the press regulation system that Lady Dorrian thinks justifies bloggers not enjoying equality before the law with journalists? Seriously?!

As mentioned in my previous post, Craig Murray is expected to finally be released from prison on Tuesday morning. One of Lady Dorrian's eyebrow-raising justifications for incarcerating him was a novel principle that mere bloggers should not enjoy equality before the law with mainstream journalists - and her excuse for that was the observation that mainstream journalism, unlike blogging, is "regulated". That means she was according a tremendous amount of significance to the jurisdiction of the press regulator IPSO - an entirely voluntary body which "enforces" an entirely voluntary code. For the new Dorrian Doctrine to have any credibility, then, and certainly for it to have sufficient credibility to even begin to justify imprisoning someone for writing internet articles, it would have to be assumed that the voluntary IPSO system is working exceptionally well. 

Just by complete chance, a truly dreadful example of Scottish political journalism came along recently to give us a golden opportunity to assess whether IPSO is regulating the press as effectively as Dorrian would have us believe - or indeed whether it is regulating the press in any real sense at all. On 20th September 2021, the Daily Record published an article entitled "Scottish independence support drops in new opinion poll on constitution". Both the headline and the main thrust of the article was a downright, deliberate lie. The opinion poll being referred to was a Redfield & Wilton survey showing Yes on 44% and No on 47%, which represented no change whatsoever from the firm's previous poll which also showed Yes on 44% and No on 47%. As a technical justification for the lie, presumably intended as a shield against any complaint to IPSO, the eighth paragraph of the Record article hinted (but didn't state directly) that the claim of a drop in support for independence was based on a comparison with an Opinium poll which had showed a slim Yes lead - but any such implied comparison was an utter nonsense and an insult to the intelligence of every reader. Not only was the Opinium poll conducted by a completely different firm with a completely different methodology (thus meaning that the numbers from the two polls cannot be directly compared), it wasn't even the most recent poll by any firm. Nor was it the second most recent poll by any firm. There were in fact two polls prior to the Redfield & Wilton poll that had fresher fieldwork than the Opinium poll - one conducted by Savanta ComRes and one conducted by Panelbase. The Record had essentially delved back into history with the intention of cherry-picking any poll they could find that would artificially produce the "drop in support for Yes" they wanted to report, but that inconveniently didn't actually exist. 

If it's journalistically acceptable for a newspaper to behave in that way, the reporting of polls becomes an anything goes funfair. Any poll can be reported as showing any trend the journalist wants. A pro-independence journalist, for example, could claim that absolutely any poll shows an increase in support for Yes, as long as they chuck in the disclaimer "oh and by the way I'm making the comparison with a System Three poll published in 1994". Fortunately, however, the IPSO code makes clear that sleights of hand of that sort are not a valid excuse - not only are outright inaccuracies forbidden, but so are "distortions". There was therefore no doubt whatsoever that the Record article was in breach of the code - it was a cynical attempt to hoodwink readers into falsely believing that independence support had fallen. 

But do IPSO actually enforce their own code? You probably won't faint with amazement at the revelation that they don't. A Scot Goes Pop reader lodged a complaint with IPSO, and it was summarily dismissed without even being considered by the Complaints Committee. What was truly staggering, though, was not so much the dismissal itself but the stated reasons for dismissal, which read like the judgement from a show trial in an authoritarian state. They brazenly turned reality on its head by accusing the complainant of doing the exact thing that the Record had done in the offending article - ie. of cherry-picking a poll for comparison.

"While we understand that you considered this inaccurate, as you had found another poll with identical figures preceding the one reported on by the article, where the article made clear on what basis it reported that “independence support drop[ped]”, we found no possible ground to investigate a possible breach of Clause 1."

"As you had found"?  "As you had FOUND"? What?!  What in the name of mercy do these people even think they are talking about?  The complainant hadn't "found" anything - he was simply making a statement of indisputable fact that the poll showed no change from the previous poll conducted by the same firm, which is the universally accepted way of accurately reporting opinion poll trends.  It was the Daily Record that had gone on a mission to "find" a poll that they could use to make the new poll show something it did not show.  What IPSO did was the rough equivalent of playing a piece of CCTV footage backwards to make it look like the victim of theft was the perpetrator.  "Cynical" doesn't even begin to cover it.

On the basis of IPSO's rules, the complainant had a right to appeal, which he naturally did, just on the off-chance that IPSO somehow didn't understand any of the above and had made a catastrophic mistake in good faith.  But no go.  The appeal was summarily rejected as well, and this time they didn't even bother offering reasons, beyond the generic and content-free "your complaint did not raise a possible breach of the Code".

Make no mistake - IPSO is a sham regulator conducting sham investigations. The intent is not to correct lies and to punish journalists who are guilty of them, but instead to buttress lies and glorify them, and effectively provide lying journalists with "truth-teller of outstanding integrity" certificates.  This is the sort of thing you'd expect to happen in a cultish one-party state, not in an allegedly mature western democracy.

Perhaps none of it would matter if we all just pointed and laughed at IPSO as a joke regulator run by the press for its own self-interested purposes.  But once you have a High Court judge praying in aid this nonsense as part of her reasoning for sending a writer to jail, we are into very sinister and dangerous territory.

Friday, November 26, 2021

News on Craig Murray's release, plus a weary reply to Ipsos-Mori's in-house identity politics extremist

I've been meaning to post this since an email I received about it four days ago, so I hope the information isn't out of date by now!  Craig Murray is expected to be released from prison on St Andrew's Day (next Tuesday) at around 10am.  There's an open invitation for all independence supporters to attend a rally at that time outside Saughton.  Craig will hopefully get an opportunity to make a statement for the media.

It'll be a tremendous relief if Craig gets back home more or less in one piece.  The big concern was always that he has several health conditions and that he might not make it through a few months in prison, particularly in the context of a pandemic - and some would argue that was the whole purpose of inappropriately incarcerating him in the first place.

Yes vote holds up in new YouGov poll

As you may have seen, YouGov's first full-scale Scottish poll for six months was published yesterday, and it showed no change on the independence question.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov, 18th-22nd November 2021)

Yes 47% (-)
No 53% (-)

There's no cause for concern that Yes are holding steady at 47% rather than the 48% or 49% that has been typical of other firms, because YouGov have consistently been on the No-friendly end of the spectrum in recent times.  In fact, the last three YouGov polls, in April, May and November respectively, have all shown an identical 53-47 lead for No, and you have to go back to March for the last narrower No lead of 51-49. That gives the impression that Yes slipped back a bit in the run-up to the Holyrood election but have since held totally steady.  The pattern shown by other pollsters is for the most part consistent with that, even if they show Yes holding steady at a slightly higher level.

Although it's frustrating to be talking about a no-change scenario which maintains a slim No lead, especially after the giddy heights that Yes hit last year, the current position of a persistently even divide in public opinion is actually an excellent starting position for any referendum campaign, and a good platform on which to build a Yes victory if that campaign is well-judged.  The real problem is that we appear to have an SNP leadership that is privately opposed to holding an indyref in anything like the foreseeable future, so an ongoing modest No lead may be eagerly seized upon as a bogus excuse for further inaction.  That said, they weren't exactly short of excuses even when there was a huge Yes lead, so perhaps it doesn't make all that much difference.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 48% (-)
Conservatives 20% (-2)
Labour 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)
Greens 3% (-1)
Reform UK 2% (+1)

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:

SNP 48%
Conservatives 21%
Labour 19%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Greens 2%

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 38%
Labour 19%
Conservatives 19%
Greens 11%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Reform UK 2%
Alba 1%
UKIP 1%
All for Unity 1%

David Clark said the other day that the only way for unionist politicians to get their way by having us "move on from the independence debate" would be for Scotland to actually become independent.  And on these numbers you can see what he means - after a decade and a half the SNP's 'honeymoon' is still ongoing, and they're on course to actually gain yet more seats at Westminster.  For as long as that's the case, simply remaining in the UK will not make the issue of independence disappear in a puff of smoke.

Thursday, November 25, 2021

My all-time favourite thing on the internet has finally arrived: a Medium article about the dateability of Scot Goes Pop blogger James Kelly

Yeah. I know. This is the sort of thing that normally happens to Selena Gomez. The author of the world's unlikeliest internet article is someone called Katy Montgomerie, who - entirely uncoincidentally - also appeared to be the instigator of the Twitter pile-on that led to me suffering 24 hours of sustained abuse and harassment on Tuesday and yesterday (at least two people were suspended from Twitter as a result).  I know very little about her other than that she has just over 50,000 followers on Twitter and is a keen participant in the ongoing trans debate.  Her Medium profile identifies her as a trans woman herself, and she appears to be based somewhere Daan Saaf, judging both from her accent on her YouTube videos and the hesitant way she refers to the Scottish political scene as if the words she's using are unfamiliar and foreign. 

Basically Katy was livid about the wording of one of the questions in the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll on GRA reform and related gender matters, claiming that it portrayed trans women as sexual predators.  She's wrong about that, but judge for yourself...

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll (a representative sample of 1001 over-16s in Scotland was interviewed by Panelbase between 20th and 26th October 2021)

Some people argue that it is bigoted or transphobic for lesbian women or heterosexual men to refuse to consider dating individuals who have changed their gender from male to female.  Others argue that being attracted only to individuals who have been biologically female since birth is a normal part of how sexual attraction works for many lesbian women and heterosexual men, and that it is wrong to pressurise people into dating individuals they are not attracted to.  Which point of view do you find more persuasive?

It is wrong for lesbian women or heterosexual men to refuse to consider dating individuals who have changed their gender from male to female: 7%

It is wrong to pressurise lesbian women and heterosexual men to consider dating transgender people they are not attracted to: 65%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 28%

It's difficult to get into an in-depth discussion about the reasons for choosing a certain wording when you're faced with a 280-character limit on Twitter, and especially when the people you're speaking to are not engaging in good faith.  However, the point they're missing (almost certainly intentionally) is that the reference in the poll question to people being pressurised is not some gratuitous add-on extra, it's actually the logical, utterly inescapable flip-side of the suggestion that it is bigoted or transphobic to refuse to consider dating trans women (for the avoidance of doubt, that was a suggestion that several of Katy's fan club explicitly made during the pile-on).   Telling someone they're transphobic, which in the current climate carries similar gravity to allegations of anti-Semitism, is a very dramatic thing to say, and self-evidently constitutes very considerable pressure for that individual to change their position and to consider dating trans women in the future.  If you want to say that nobody is under any pressure to date trans women, that's fine, but in order to make that claim with any credibility, you first have to remove the pressure that is in itself being caused by the unambiguous statements that some people's sexual orientations are "transphobic".  You really can't have it both ways.

A common refrain during the pile-on was that I had been "transphobic" myself by singling out trans women in the poll wording - "why not ask whether it's wrong for fat people or Asian women or whoever to pressurise people into dating them?"  And the answer to that is straightforward - it's because there is simply no equivalent to the allegation of transphobia that would apply to other types of sexual preferences. Women don't usually accuse gay men of misogyny for refusing to date them, and men don't usually accuse lesbians of misandry for refusing to date them.  (I say "usually" because some do, but the point is that nobody takes them remotely seriously when they do it.)  If Asian women occasionally feel that men refuse to date them because of racism, that's a very different sort of issue, because - and I can speak with some authority here - Asian women are just as attractive to heterosexual men as any other women.  If racism does sometimes get in the way, there will always be any number of other men out there who will be interested.  There's no natural barrier that requires people's entire sexual orientation to be reinvented or restructured.

Heterosexual men and lesbian women are, at least in certain circumstances, attracted to women of all ethnicities and of all body shapes and sizes.  In most cases, however, they are not attracted to people who are physically or biologically male.  That's a feature, not a bug - it's at the very core of heterosexual male / gay female sexual orientation.  The discriminating factor in that orientation is not personal identity or 'spirit' - as a heterosexual male I might very well be attracted to a woman with a 'masculine spirit' but I wouldn't be attracted to a man with a 'feminine spirit'. Label that as transphobia if you want to, but it's just who I am and how I was born. In the same way, lesbian women are who they are. Telling lesbians that they must consider dating trans women is in many cases tantamount to telling them they must renounce their sexual orientation - and if you also say they'll be branded as bigots if they don't do that, then yes, that undoubtedly constitutes pressure.  

A possible alternative version of the poll question, which might have attracted less ire from the Katy Montgomerie Fan Club, would have been "is it bigoted or transphobic to refuse to consider dating trans women?" with simple "yes" or "no" answers.  But that would have been a cop-out, because it quite simply wouldn't have been a balanced question.  There are two very robust stances taken by each side of this debate - one side says "you won't consider dating trans women and that makes you transphobic bigots" while the other side says "you're calling us transphobic bigots and that's putting intense and unreasonable pressure on us to widen our dating pool to include people we'll never actually be attracted to".  The softer question would have offered respondents the opportunity to give direct backing to the robust stance taken by one side of the debate, but not to the equally robust stance taken by the other side.  Essentially what we're being told is that only one half of the debate can be referred to in poll questions - well, that type of censorship and self-censorship might be the way we're headed, but don't try to tell me it's the way to poll public opinion fairly and accurately.

Katy's Medium article is about a joke Twitter poll she ran on Tuesday, asking "is it wrong for James Kelly to pressure people into dating him?"  She imagined this would goad me into "admitting" that her question portrayed me as a predator, and therefore by extension that my own poll question had done the same to trans women.  To her dismay, though, I was far more concerned about her cavalier approach to polling methodology.  She announced that if her self-selecting poll exceeded 1000 votes, it would be just as "representative" as mine - whereas of course it would still have been infinitely less representative than a properly-conducted poll even if it had hit 100,000 votes.  Some of the usual suspect "trendies" from Scottish political Twitter then thought they could rescue her by dipping into the lengthy dossier they keep on me, and produced a screenshot to support their claim that I "had changed my tune about the validity of self-selecting Twitter polls" .  I warned Katy that she wouldn't exactly be dispelling the impression that she's clueless about polling if she placed too much reliance on that - but, alas, that warning has gone unheeded. 

Unfortunately for her, I was making a very different point in the screenshotted tweet - which was about the absolute numbers who said they were planning to vote Alba in the Holyrood election.  Although Twitter polls are self-selecting, they nevertheless restrict people to one vote per account. As we knew that roughly 100,000 votes would probably be enough to win Alba list seats, the fact that Alba could attract, say, 1000 votes in a Twitter poll did tell us something interesting - it suggested they had at least 1% of the necessary total and that there were probably more votes out there.  (In the event, Alba took around 45,000 votes and thus fell short.)  That perfectly valid point bears no resemblance whatever to suggestions that the percentage results in self-selecting polls are in any way meaningful or reliable.  They are not.  Never have been, never will be.

As for the question wording, the equivalence that Katy was inferring simply wasn't there.  It would only have been there if I had ever claimed that "people who refuse to consider dating James Kelly are Kelly-phobic, and are therefore required to change their attitude immediately".  

To deal with a couple of other miscellaneous points from Katy's piece -

"Kelly said that he spent “thousands of pounds” on this poll."

Yes, Kelly did say that.  And you'll find, Katy, that properly-conducted, full-scale polls do tend to cost thousands of pounds. But it was probably a sensible precaution to put that bit in inverted commas - I mean, it might turn out that they only cost 40p or something.  Who knows.

"If it’s not f****** obvious there is absolutely no evidence that James Kelly is pressuring people to date him, just like there is no evidence at all that there is an issue with trans people pressuring people to date them. The original question he asked was a classic example of a “have you stopped hitting your wife?” question based around one of the most popular anti-trans propaganda topics at the moment. My poll and the part of this article about him is satire of his."

Katy goes all serious and angry in her final paragraph.  Just a thought, but I can't help feeling that if you need to specify "this is a satire" in your very last sentence, it might just possibly betray a slight concern that your satire has spectacularly failed.

UPDATE: Due to her special interest in the subject, the individual formerly known as "The Random Totty From Freedom Square" has been contacted for comment on the shock revelation that a Medium article has been published about my dateability.  While we're waiting, here are her suggested "improvements" to the photo I used in the Scot Goes Pop poll fundraiser...



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Via the embedded player below, you can watch my discussion last week with Denise Findlay about the issues raised by the Scot Goes Pop GRA poll.



Wednesday, November 24, 2021

And that's a wrap: here is the full list of results from the comprehensive Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll on reform of the Gender Recognition Act and related gender issues

We've now reached the conclusion of the latest Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll.  As regular readers will recall, the idea for the poll back in July was to try to produce the Scottish equivalent of a comprehensive poll on gender self-ID and related matters that had just been conducted in the Republic of Ireland by RedC on behalf of The Countess website.  I think we've pretty much achieved that - due to budget constraints, our poll maybe didn't have quite the same granular detail as the RedC survey, but it covered most of the same bases. I also took great care to follow the example of the Irish poll by ensuring the questions were as neutral and balanced as humanly possible, so that the results would have maximum credibility and reliability.  Indeed, I strongly suspect the reason that the poll has triggered such an abusive reaction on social media (especially yesterday) is that those with an agenda know that this was a serious exercise, meaning that the results are not as easily dismissed as might sometimes be the case with other polls on the same subject.  The numbers have at least the real potential to do harm to one side of the debate - and of course to help the other side.

The poll took far longer to commission than I had originally hoped, initially because of funding issues, and later because I went down a very long blind alley in my efforts to find a firm willing to conduct our desired poll in a reasonably recognisable form.  However, the important thing is that we managed to get it done before any final decisions are made about GRA reform at Holyrood.  MSPs will have no excuses now for being unaware of the true state of public opinion on gender self-ID. That said, we live in a parliamentary democracy, and it's entirely up to them to decide what use - if any - to make of that knowledge.  They can even, if they really want to, mischaracterise and misrepresent public opinion - but that would be the most foolish and dangerous thing of all to do, for a number of reasons.

The full data tables for the poll can now be found at the Panelbase website HERE.  And here is the full list of GRA question wordings and results, in the order the questions were actually asked of respondents.  Bear in mind there were also a number of general political questions in the poll, but those were all asked before the GRA questions.

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll (a representative sample of 1001 over-16s in Scotland was interviewed by Panelbase between 20th and 26th October 2021)

Gender dysphoria is a condition where a person feels a mismatch between their biological sex and their gender identity. For example, this may mean that a biologically male individual feels strongly that they are female, or a biologically female individual feels strongly that they are male.  At present, most people who wish to legally change the sex or gender recorded on their birth certificate must first receive a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria, but it is not necessary for them to have undergone gender reassignment surgery.  The Scottish Government is committed to changing the law in Scotland within the next year to allow people to legally change their gender without a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria, provided they make a solemn declaration that they are living in their new gender and will continue to do so.   

In your opinion, who should be eligible to legally change the sex or gender recorded on their birth certificate?

Anyone who makes a solemn declaration that they are living in their new gender: 20%

Only people who have been medically diagnosed with gender dysphoria: 18%

Only people who have undergone gender reassignment surgery: 21%

No-one: 19%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 22%

If the law is changed in Scotland to allow people to legally change their gender without a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria, do you think biological males who legally become female under the new rules should be allowed to access female-only spaces, such as changing rooms, toilets, hospital wards and women's refuges, in exactly the same way as all other women?

Yes, they should: 22%

No, they shouldn't: 54%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 25%

If a woman requires an intimate medical examination after being sexually assaulted, do you think she should have the right to ask to be examined by a doctor who has been biologically female since birth, or should she only have the right to ask to be examined by a doctor who is legally regarded as a woman, regardless of that person's biological sex at birth?

She should have the right to ask to be examined by a doctor who has been biologically female since birth: 58%

She should only have the right to ask to be examined by a doctor who is legally regarded as a woman: 20%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 22%

Some people believe that biological sex cannot be changed, and that individuals who change their legal gender from male to female should not have unrestricted access to female-only spaces such as changing rooms, toilets, hospital wards and women's refuges.  How do you think society should treat these beliefs?

These beliefs should not be tolerated because they are bigoted or transphobic: 20%

These beliefs should be respected as a legitimate part of democratic debate: 53%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 27%

Some politicians have suggested that the result of the Scottish Parliament election in May of this year showed that voters rejected candidates who they believed were "transphobic" for opposing reforms to make it easier for individuals to change their legal gender. Thinking back to the Scottish Parliament election, which of these statements best describes how you used your vote?

I consciously rejected candidates who I believed to be transphobic: 11%

I did not consciously reject candidates due to their alleged transphobia: 57%

I did not vote: 13%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 18%

Some people argue that, in the interests of inclusion and equality for transgender people, athletes who have legally changed their gender from male to female should be permitted to compete in women's sporting events. Others argue that athletes who were born biologically male should be excluded from women's sporting events, because they would have an unfair advantage over other female athletes and might put other female athletes at greater risk of physical injury.  Which point of view do you find more persuasive?

Athletes who have legally changed their gender from male to female should be permitted to compete in women's sporting events: 19%

Athletes who have legally changed their gender from male to female should be excluded from women's sporting events: 57%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 24%

Some people argue that it is bigoted or transphobic for lesbian women or heterosexual men to refuse to consider dating individuals who have changed their gender from male to female.  Others argue that being attracted only to individuals who have been biologically female since birth is a normal part of how sexual attraction works for many lesbian women and heterosexual men, and that it is wrong to pressurise people into dating individuals they are not attracted to.  Which point of view do you find more persuasive?

It is wrong for lesbian women or heterosexual men to refuse to consider dating individuals who have changed their gender from male to female: 7%

It is wrong to pressurise lesbian women and heterosexual men to consider dating transgender people they are not attracted to: 65%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 28%

Some people argue that it is bigoted or transphobic to 'misgender' a transgender person - for example to refer to them as 'he' or 'him' if their preferred pronouns are 'she' and 'her'.  Others argue that forcing people to use particular pronouns when referring to a transgender person is an unacceptable attack on free speech.  Which point of view do you find most persuasive?

It is unacceptable to refer to a transgender person by the wrong pronouns: 30%

It is an unacceptable attack on free speech to force people to use particular pronouns when referring to a transgender person: 40%

Don’t Know / Prefer not to answer: 29%

Do you think official government statistics should record whether sex offenders were male or female at birth, or only whether they were legally regarded as male or female at the time of their offence?

Official statistics should record whether sex offenders were male or female at birth: 49%

Official statistics should only record whether sex offenders were legally regarded as male or female at the time of their offence: 26%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 25%

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Via the embedded player below, you can watch my discussion last week with Denise Findlay about the issues raised by the poll.

SCOT GOES POP / PANELBASE POLL: Scottish public want official crime statistics to record whether sex offenders were male or female at birth

We've discussed on this site before whether the number of female perpetrators of certain crimes, such as domestic violence, may be significantly underestimated by the official statistics due to the unwillingness of male victims to come forward, or the unwillingness of the authorities to believe them.  However, there's a big difference between addressing that type of under-reporting, and artificially producing a big upsurge in the number of female criminals by reassigning some offenders from the male column to the female column.  Many advocates of gender self-ID would argue that "trans women are women", and that therefore crimes committed by self-ID-ing trans women should be accurately recorded as committed by women.  But if taking that step is in itself sufficient to substantially increase the female crime rate, especially for sexual offences, doesn't that suggest there is in fact a fundamental difference between trans women and other women, and that biology may be playing a part in that? And if so, doesn't that in itself say something rather interesting about the credibility of the self-ID / "trans women are women" ideology?

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll (a representative sample of 1001 over-16s in Scotland was interviewed by Panelbase between 20th and 26th October 2021)

Do you think official government statistics should record whether sex offenders were male or female at birth, or only whether they were legally regarded as male or female at the time of their offence?

Official statistics should record whether sex offenders were male or female at birth: 49%

Official statistics should only record whether sex offenders were legally regarded as male or female at the time of their offence: 26%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 25%

It turns out that the public are not on board anyway - which may mark the first and last time that Priti Patel finds herself closer to the centre of gravity of Scottish public opinion than Nicola Sturgeon does.  There is no significant gender gap on this question - 51% of men, and 48% of women, want the birth sex of offenders to be recorded.  SNP voters themselves are actually not far out of line with the overall result - 47% want birth sex in the statistics, and just 29% only want legally-recognised gender at the time of the offence.

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Via the embedded player below, you can watch my discussion last week with Denise Findlay about the issues raised by the poll.


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SCOT GOES POP POLLING FUNDRAISER: I'm having to partly cover the costs of the current poll with my own funds, so if we're going to run further polling in the future, we'll need to reach the £6500 target in the fundraiser (or get very close to it).  We're close to 60% of the way there so far, with more than £2500 still required.  So any donations, large or small, would be greatly appreciated and will make all the difference.  Don't risk leaving public opinion polling exclusively in the hands of the mainstream media, with all the bias that entails!  Here are three ways in which you can donate...

1) Paypal payments to the email address:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Paypal is the preferred payment method because money is transferred immediately and without fuss.  All you need to ensure is that the above email address is entered correctly (note the .co.uk ending), and add a note with the word "poll" or "fundraiser".  (But don't worry if you forget to do the latter bit, because it'll still be obvious what the payment is for.)

2) Payments to the Scot Goes Pop GoFundMe Fundraiser page, which can be found HERE.

or

3) Direct bank transfer.  Contact me by email if you prefer this option.  My contact email address is different from my Paypal address above, and can be found in the sidebar of the blog (desktop version of the site only), or on my Twitter profile.

Thank you all once again for your amazing continued support, and in particular many thanks to the more than 160 people who have already donated. 


Tuesday, November 23, 2021

VIDEO PREVIEW of Tuesday night's result in the Scot Goes Pop GRA poll: the subject is crime statistics


SCOT GOES POP POLLING FUNDRAISER: I'm having to partly cover the costs of the current poll with my own funds, so if we're going to run further polling in the future, we'll need to reach the £6500 target in the fundraiser (or get very close to it).  We're just over halfway there so far, with the best part of another £3000 required.  So any donations, large or small, would be greatly appreciated and will make all the difference.  Don't risk leaving public opinion polling exclusively in the hands of the mainstream media, with all the bias that entails!  Here are three ways in which you can donate...

1) Paypal payments to the email address:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Paypal is the preferred payment method because money is transferred immediately and without fuss.  All you need to ensure is that the above email address is entered correctly (note the .co.uk ending), and add a note with the word "poll" or "fundraiser".  (But don't worry if you forget to do the latter bit, because it'll still be obvious what the payment is for.)

2) Payments to the Scot Goes Pop GoFundMe Fundraiser page, which can be found HERE.

or

3) Direct bank transfer.  Contact me by email if you prefer this option.  My contact email address is different from my Paypal address above, and can be found in the sidebar of the blog (desktop version of the site only), or on my Twitter profile.

Thank you all once again for your amazing continued support, and in particular many thanks to the more than 160 people who have already donated.

Yes, the dating / attraction question in the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll is legitimate - and here's why

As I mentioned last night, I wasn't sure whether the question in the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll about dating and attraction was really important enough to warrant inclusion, but the reason I eventually left it in is that people seemed uncomfortable about the question being asked, and that in itself made it more interesting.  That conclusion has been borne out by the sea of mindless abuse I had to wade through on social media this morning, and that I hadn't encountered after releasing the previous results from the poll.  People don't like the numbers, so I'm demonised for reporting them and for asking the question in the first place - and we're not just talking about the standard knee-jerk allegations of "transphobia" here.  Several people implied that I was essentially a rapist because I didn't understand the concept of consent - although how on earth they managed to reach that conclusion from the wording of the poll question or my decision to ask it is, I suspect, a mystery that will be baffling philosophers for millennia to come.  The most serious allegation was that I am a "creepy nonce" - that tweet has been reported to Twitter by several people (I couldn't do it myself because the individual cowardly blocked me within seconds of posting it).  I'll be interested to see if any of the usual suspects can actually bring themselves to condemn that sort of language, or at least disassociate themselves from it.

But to the very limited extent that there was any serious point behind the campaign of harassment, it was this: they claimed that the poll question was illegitimate because it wrongly implied that lesbian women and heterosexual men are sometimes pressurised to consider dating or having sex with trans women.  That, of course, would only be a valid criticism if there is no evidence that people have been pressurised.  I will now supply just a fraction of the mass of evidence that exists.

Exhibit A: YouTube video entitled "Your dating preferences are discriminatory"

Selected quotes: "Argument is that it's just a preference and you can't control who you're attracted to!  (Spoiler: it's not.)"

"Would you date a trans person?  If you said 'no', I'm sorry but that's pretty discriminatory."

"It really feels like you're reducing people just to their genitals."

"It's difficult, because some people have built their sexual identities on these repulsions [to certain genitals].  But I don't think they're innate at all...you can unlearn your own prejudices.  It just takes time and conscious effort."

Exhibit B: BBC article entitled "We're being pressured into sex by some trans women"

Selected quotes: "One of the lesbian women I spoke to, 24-year-old Amy*, told me she experienced verbal abuse from her own girlfriend, a bisexual woman who wanted them to have a threesome with a trans woman. 

When Amy explained her reasons for not wanting to, her girlfriend became angry. "The first thing she called me was transphobic," Amy said. "She immediately jumped to make me feel guilty about not wanting to sleep with someone."...

"I remember she was extremely shocked and angry, and claimed my views were extremist propaganda and inciting violence towards the trans community, as well as comparing me to far-right groups," she said."

"Another lesbian woman, 26-year-old Chloe*, said she felt so pressured she ended up having penetrative sex with a trans woman at university after repeatedly explaining she was not interested. 

They lived near each other in halls of residence. Chloe had been drinking alcohol and does not think she could have given proper consent. 

"I felt very bad for hating every moment, because the idea is we are attracted to gender rather than sex, and I did not feel that, and I felt bad for feeling like that," she said."

Exhibit C: Psychobabble article entitled "How to recognise transphobia - and what to do next"

Selected quote: "A person doesn’t have to put these behaviors or beliefs into words for them to count as transphobia, either. Maybe they don’t consider trans people “real” men or women. Or they tell themselves, “I don’t have any problem with trans people — but I would never date one.”"

Monday, November 22, 2021

SCOT GOES POP / PANELBASE POLL: Vast majority of Scottish public believe it is wrong to pressurise lesbian women and heterosexual men to date trans women

Of course I couldn't include absolutely every possible GRA or gender-related question in the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll.  One question I had on my provisional list was about the issue of whether, as a million internet articles and YouTube videos will tell you, it's transphobic for lesbian women and heterosexual men to refuse to consider dating trans women.  I wasn't at all sure that was one of the most important questions, and I thought about replacing it with a different question, perhaps about whether people who legally change their gender from male to female under the proposed new self-ID law should be eligible to participate in female-only shortlists or to fill positions reserved for women.  However, there's just something about the unease and offence the dating question causes, and the way some people wish it would just go away, that in itself made me think it was worth asking.  There have been suggestions that people being pressurised into dating or having sex with trans women isn't something that even happens in the real world, and that therefore this is a non-issue that nobody should be thinking about or inquiring about.  But, just by complete chance, since the poll got underway, a BBC report has documented real-life examples of lesbian women feeling pressure to sleep with trans women.  So this result is actually quite timely.

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll (a representative sample of 1001 over-16s in Scotland was interviewed by Panelbase between 20th and 26th October 2021)

Some people argue that it is bigoted or transphobic for lesbian women or heterosexual men to refuse to consider dating individuals who have changed their gender from male to female.  Others argue that being attracted only to individuals who have been biologically female since birth is a normal part of how sexual attraction works for many lesbian women and heterosexual men, and that it is wrong to pressurise people into dating individuals they are not attracted to.  Which point of view do you find more persuasive?

It is wrong for lesbian women or heterosexual men to refuse to consider dating individuals who have changed their gender from male to female: 7%

It is wrong to pressurise lesbian women and heterosexual men to consider dating transgender people they are not attracted to: 65%

Don't Know / Prefer not to answer: 28%

This is actually the most overwhelming result in the whole poll, and one thing I find really interesting about it is that there's much less of a generation gap than there is on some of the other questions.  It's true that under-35s are a bit more likely than older people to think that an individual is a bigot if they exclude trans women from their personal dating pool, but there's still a mammoth majority among young people (59% to 13%) who think that lesbian women and heterosexual men shouldn't be pressurised to date trans women if they don't feel any attraction.  My guess is that the explanation is fairly simple: this is the question that the greatest number of people feel they have a personal stake in, and also have the best instinctive understanding of.  Every individual knows how sexual attraction works for themselves.  If they know in their heart of hearts that it's based on the biological sex of the other person rather than on gender identity, they're scarcely going to feel able to insist that the rest of the population is held to an entirely different standard.  

The suggestion that "social barriers" or even "far-right impulses" are responsible for limiting trans women's access to the dating market is arguably, then, the weakest part of so-called gender ideology, because the truth or otherwise of it is not hidden behind a veil of mystery for most people - they know from their own personal experience that it just isn't reconcilable with the way the world actually works.  We might think it's unfortunate or deeply unfair that sexual attraction works the way it does, but we also know that social engineering can't change it and that it's wholly unjust for anyone to be 'punished' or 'shamed' for it.

Once again, there's no major difference between men and women on this question.  Women were somewhat more likely to say "don't know / prefer not to answer", but they also said by a 62% to 6% majority that people shouldn't be pressurised into dating trans women - very similar to the 68% to 9% majority among men.

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UPDATE: After the above results were published, there were a number of spurious (albeit determined) attempts on social media to discredit the wording of the question.  Explanations of why that wording is balanced and appropriate can be found HERE and HERE.

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Via the embedded player below, you can watch my discussion last week with Denise Findlay about the issues raised by the poll.


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SCOT GOES POP POLLING FUNDRAISER: I'm having to partly cover the costs of the current poll with my own funds, so if we're going to run further polling in the future, we'll need to reach the £6500 target in the fundraiser (or get very close to it).  We're close to 60% of the way there so far, with more than £2500 still required.  So any donations, large or small, would be greatly appreciated and will make all the difference.  Don't risk leaving public opinion polling exclusively in the hands of the mainstream media, with all the bias that entails!  Here are three ways in which you can donate...

1) Paypal payments to the email address:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Paypal is the preferred payment method because money is transferred immediately and without fuss.  All you need to ensure is that the above email address is entered correctly (note the .co.uk ending), and add a note with the word "poll" or "fundraiser".  (But don't worry if you forget to do the latter bit, because it'll still be obvious what the payment is for.)

2) Payments to the Scot Goes Pop GoFundMe Fundraiser page, which can be found HERE.

or

3) Direct bank transfer.  Contact me by email if you prefer this option.  My contact email address is different from my Paypal address above, and can be found in the sidebar of the blog (desktop version of the site only), or on my Twitter profile.

Thank you all once again for your amazing continued support, and in particular many thanks to the more than 160 people who have already donated. 

A reply to Stephen Paton's disgraceful but meaningless "ultimatum" - aka his ode to intolerance, bullying and purges

(Explanatory note: Stephen Paton has long since blocked me on Twitter, which - with glorious irony - gives me a cast-iron excuse not to even be aware of the pronouns Paton wishes to be referred by.  However, I gather those pronouns are 'they' and 'them'.  In an effort to extend basic good manners to Paton in a way Paton hasn't done to me, I'll be using those pronouns in this blogpost, hence what might appear to be a rather odd use of language.)

Periodically, you'll see someone on social media threatening to cancel their subscription to The National because they're outraged by something written in a column by Mhairi Black, or Stephen Paton, or Michael Fry, or pretty much anyone.  "Should never have been published!" is the mantra.  To which I always point out that you really need to step back and look at the bigger picture, because The National has been, right from its inception, an admirably inclusive newspaper - in a way that the Sunday Herald under Neil Mackay's editorship, for example, was not.  Every significant shade of opinion within the independence movement has been given a platform in The National, from Carolyn Leckie on the radical left, all the way through to Michael Fry on the Thatcherite right.  If you believe in independence, you're in, and your voice will be heard - or at the very least the voice of someone who closely represents your views.  Alba is there (George Kerevan), as is the more radical wing of the SNP (Joanna Cherry). But in return for the tolerance of SNP leadership loyalists and Green supporters when our views get an airing, it's only fair and decent that we also show tolerance when people like Mhairi Black and Alyn Smith get to express their own opinions.  The alternative would be to have a paper that is merely the mouthpiece of one particular narrow faction, and it's doubtful that any such publication would be viable in the long run.

It's rather ironic, though, that Stephen Paton has used their (Paton's) own latest column to denounce any notion that the principle of inclusivity should also apply to the independence movement more broadly.  Paton has penned an ode to intolerance, a hymn for bullying, factionalism and purges.  Specifically, Paton has issued an "ultimatum" demanding that the highly regarded MP Joanna Cherry should be expelled from the SNP parliamentary group at Westminster, simply because they (Paton) personally disagrees with her gender critical views.  Just think about what that actually means for a moment.  The current Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll has shown on question after question after question that the majority of the public broadly share Joanna Cherry's views on matters relating to gender and the GRA, while only a relatively modest minority back Paton's.  If Paton gets their way, it would literally be the case that only 20% of the adult population of Scotland (the ones who back gender self-ID) would even be eligible for consideration as SNP candidates.  A funny sort of "national party of Scotland", that.

Paton's lamentable excuse for insisting upon yet another purge is the silly allegation that Ms Cherry supports "conversion therapy" for trans people.  What she actually said, of course, is that therapists should not be criminalised for helping people with gender dysphoria to become more comfortable with their birth sex.  Paton equates that to "conversion therapy" by rhetorically asking how we would react if Ms Cherry had suggested therapists shouldn't be criminalised for "helping patients with homosexual thoughts feel comfortable with opposite-sex attraction".  But that argument hinges on the premise that gender identity is always as fixed and immutable as homosexuality is - and we know that premise is utterly bogus.  Is Paton suggesting that nobody with gender dysphoria has ever considered transitioning but decided against it after consulting with a therapist, and then ended up being happy they made that choice?  Is Paton suggesting that nobody has ever detransitioned and then been glad they did?  If so, Paton is not arguing honestly.  As the saying goes, facts matter.  Truth matters.

I'd also just note that the whole concept of an "ultimatum" is rather empty given that there is no actual threatened consequences if Paton and fellow travellers don't get their own way - other than the meaningless "or you will lose all credibility on LGBT issues".  As Paton is not a spokesperson for the entirety of the LGBT community (or at least not outside Paton's own head), there can be no reason to think that Paton is any kind of definitive arbiter of who has credibility on LGBT issues.  Paton's attempted blackmail essentially amounts to "do as I say or I'll write another column - and that one will be even angrier".

Best of luck with that, Stephen.

VIDEO PREVIEW of Monday night's question in the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll (Owen Jones, look away now)


SCOT GOES POP POLLING FUNDRAISER: I'm having to partly cover the costs of the current poll with my own funds, so if we're going to run further polling in the future, we'll need to reach the £6500 target in the fundraiser (or get very close to it).  We're just over halfway there so far, with the best part of another £3000 required.  So any donations, large or small, would be greatly appreciated and will make all the difference.  Don't risk leaving public opinion polling exclusively in the hands of the mainstream media, with all the bias that entails!  Here are three ways in which you can donate...

1) Paypal payments to the email address:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Paypal is the preferred payment method because money is transferred immediately and without fuss.  All you need to ensure is that the above email address is entered correctly (note the .co.uk ending), and add a note with the word "poll" or "fundraiser".  (But don't worry if you forget to do the latter bit, because it'll still be obvious what the payment is for.)

2) Payments to the Scot Goes Pop GoFundMe Fundraiser page, which can be found HERE.

or

3) Direct bank transfer.  Contact me by email if you prefer this option.  My contact email address is different from my Paypal address above, and can be found in the sidebar of the blog (desktop version of the site only), or on my Twitter profile.

Thank you all once again for your amazing continued support, and in particular many thanks to the more than 160 people who have already donated.