Despair for unionists as first post-election poll suggests Labour's narrow victory has had NO EFFECT on support for independence - the Yes vote stands at a heady 48%

As you may have gathered, I've been travelling in recent days, so I'm sincerely indebted to our resident unionist troll KC (who somewhere along the line misplaced the Sunshine Band) for reminding me that independence support stands at a remarkable 48% in the recent Norstat poll, which is a fact well worth its own blogpost.  KC says he's never been so despondent on the constitutional issue, and I can certainly understand why.  He and his fellow travellers presumptuously imagined that Labour's narrow 35% to 30% win in the general election in Scotland would somehow "draw a line under independence", and if I'm being honest even I expected some sort of honeymoon effect for Labour that would have a temporary negative impact on Yes support.  That simply hasn't materialised, with only statistically insignificant changes on the previous poll from the same firm.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Norstat)

Yes 48% (-2)

No 52% (+2)

Although the final pre-election Norstat poll had Yes on 50%, that can probably be attributed to margin of error noise.  The high 40s has been the most typical range for Yes with Norstat and its predecessor firm Panelbase, so it does look as if the general election result has had no knock-on effect on independence support whatsoever.  Unionists like KC must be wondering: if the shock value of SNP defeat didn't spook voters into abandoning independence, what will ever do the trick?

The most likely answer is that nothing will, and that exceptionally high support for independence is here to stay.

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The other important polling news is that Labour continue to fare extraordinarily poorly at GB-wide level.  A new BMG poll has them ahead of the Tories by just four points, raising the possibility of crossover in the near future, which would be downright embarrassing for Starmer just a few weeks after his landslide.  My view is that the post-election polling has confirmed that it was indeed a 'loveless landslide', with no great appetite for Labour even on polling day, and with some tentative signs that their early actions in government may already be alienating people.

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Doing a Donald Trump pose in front of the Northern Lights

We interrupt our normal programming to bring you the important news that I've finally seen the Northern Lights.  And I didn't cheat by going to Norway or anything like that - it was in Scotland, albeit the far north.