Here's the news they're not telling you: 49.4% support independence in the latest poll

In my post promoting the fundraiser for the next Scot Goes Pop poll, I made the point that one of the problems with conventional polling is that the only firm that polls regularly on independence tends to downplay good results for Yes and makes them hard to find. That's certainly true of the latest poll, because 24 hours on, how many of you are aware of just how remarkably well Yes support is holding up in the face of the Labour recovery?

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton)

Yes 49.4%

No 50.6%

I'm taking a leaf out of the Express' book here by rounding to one decimal place, because after all the press regulator IPSO decreed that was absolutely fine!  Of course the headline numbers with Don't Knows excluded are Yes 49%, No 51%, but with Don't Knows left in the rounded No lead is just 1 point (47% to 46%), and fascinatingly Yes actually has a 1 point lead before the likelihood to vote filter is applied (45% to 44%).  The bottom line, though, is that this poll is a statistical tie in which the tightness of the margin makes it impossible to know whether Yes or No has the advantage, due to the standard margin of error.

The Holyrood numbers are a quintessential curate's egg, with the SNP increasing its lead over Labour on the constituency ballot, but Labour jumping into an alarmingly significant lead on the regional list ballot.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 37% (+3)

Labour 32% (+2)

Conservatives 18% (-4)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Greens 3% (+1)

Reform UK 1% (-1)

Alba 0% (-2)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

Labour 30% (+3)

SNP 25% (-3)

Conservatives 17% (-4)

Greens 11% (+2)

Liberal Democrats 10% (+2)

Reform UK 4%

Alba 2% (-1)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 42 (-22), Labour 41 (+19), Conservatives 23 (-8), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8), Greens 11 (+3)

The seats projection comes close to proving my pernennial point that ultimately the regional list ballot is the more important vote, because there comes a point where the leading party on the constituency ballot does not have a big enough lead to prevent the list allocation of seats from correcting it efficiently.

Someone suggested this was a bad poll for Alba - maybe it technically is on the constituency ballot, but if Alba have any sense they won't stand on the constituency ballot anyway but will focus exclusively on the list, where this poll shows them on the same 2% they secured in 2021.  No breakthrough but no sign of them going away.

It shouldn't go without note that the party this poll is worst for is undoubtedly the Conservative party - they're down four points on both ballots, and it's probably not a coincidence that this mirrors what we've seen in GB-wide polls since Christmas.

It's hard to know what to make of the leaders' personal ratings - Humza Yousaf has rebounded to an almost respectable -6, perhaps due to his principled stance on Gaza, but as Keir Starmer has simultaneously and undeservedly jumped to +11, that may not be of much help.  Yousaf maintains his customary lead over Anas Sarwar on the head-to-head question of who would make the best First Minister, but only just - his advantage over the Scottish Labour leader is down to a barely-there two points (33% to 31%).

One thing that always grates on me about Redfield & Wilton's write-ups of their Scottish polls is that month in, month out, they gloat about how Scottish independence is "only the third most important issue" for Yes supporters, as if this is somehow astonishing or devastating.  In fact, since time immemorial polling has showed that Scottish voters rank bread-and-butter issues as the most important, but of course many people support independence precisely because they think an jndependent Scotland will make a better fist of handling the NHS and the economy.

Scot Goes Pop poll fundraiser: If you haven't already, please consider helping Scot Goes Pop commission a New Year poll so we as jndependence supporters can actually ask the questions we want asked and think need to be asked.  The fundraiser page is HERE, however if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Shock blow for Starmer as Labour LOSES its outright lead in Scotland - SNP draw level in new Redfield & Wilton poll

For the uninitiated, yes, the titles are often semi-satirical, but there's a grain of a fair point in this one, because some people might well have expected Labour to extend their lead in this new poll, not lose it.  The SNP will at least be relieved to have stayed in contention.

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election (Redfield & Wilton):

SNP 35% (+1)

Labour 35% (-1)

Conservatives 17% (-)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+3)

Greens 2% (-)

Reform UK 2% (-1)

*  *  *

Scot Goes Pop poll fundraiser: If you haven't already, please consider helping Scot Goes Pop commission a New Year poll so we as jndependence supporters can actually ask the questions we want asked and think need to be asked.  The fundraiser page is HERE, however if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk.

POLL FUNDRAISER REMINDER: The case for a new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll at the start of general election year, and how it might help make a difference

Click here to go straight to the fundraising page.

Towards the end of last year I launched a fundraiser in the hope of commissioning a new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll on independence around about now, to mark the start of general election year.  I'm not able to do it yet, because the fundraiser still has a long distance to travel - and that's largely my own fault because I wasn't blogging much before Christmas.  However I think now is the time for a big push, because it would be good to get the poll done at some point in January, or at latest in February.

Obviously the thing about any crowdfunded poll is that it's up to those who might crowdfund it to decide whether the project is actually worthy of the funds.  However, one thing I would say is that this general election will be used by the Labour Party in particular to try to kill off independence for many years to come - and yet we're in the curious situation that independence support seems to be holding up strongly even as Labour rebound.  It's therefore in the interests of Labour and the unionists that there be as few independence polls as possible that remind the public and the media of the fundamental truth that any rejection of the SNP will not be a rejection of independence itself.

The one firm that does poll regularly on independence tends to tuck those results away, to play down the resilience of the Yes vote by making results with Don't Knows excluded (which really ought to be the headline numbers) very hard to find, and by coupling the main independence question with rather eccentric unionist-oriented supplementaries about whether Alister Jack is correct that there should be sustained 60% Yes support before an independence referendum can be held.  A poll commissioned by a pro-indy client like Scot Goes Pop will not be like that - we'll be much more interested in discovering, for example, whether voters agree it is democratically legitimate for Scotland to use a scheduled election to make a decision on independence, given London's closing off of the referendum option.

There's also a window of opportunity here to see if polling can make a telling difference by holding up an unflattering mirror to all pro-independence parties as they arguably make strategic election decisions based on petty partisan interests rather than on the interests of the independence movement or of the nation.  I'm not singling out the SNP here, because there's a strong argument that all of the three largest Yes parties are culpable on this.  However it would certainly be of interest to know, for example, the public's reaction (and more to the point Yes voters' reaction) to the SNP's decision to stand directly against the popular sitting pro-indy MP Angus MacNeil in the Western Isles.  We can also test opinion on the intention of the Greens and Alba to intervene in numerous SNP-held seats.

We can use the poll to road-test ideas that might stop the Labour juggernaut and see how effective they might be.  Would the SNP become a more attractive proposition with a unity Cabinet featuring Kate Forbes as Deputy First Minister?  Would a more straightforward commitment to use an election win to negotiate independence help to galvanise Yes support behind the SNP?

If you'd like to help make this poll happen, you can click here to go to the new GoFundMe fundraiser page.

However, the ideal way to donate is directly via Paypal, because the funds are usually transferred instantly and depending on the menu option you select, fees can be completely eliminated.  My Paypal email address is jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

You can simply send your donation via Paypal with a note saying "for the poll".

First polling straw of the wind about where the SNP stand in election year

Let's have a look at the first GB-wide YouGov poll of general election year, if only because YouGov seem to structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly, thus giving us a little straw in the wind about where public opinion currently stands (albeit one with a huge margin of error).

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 2nd-3rd January 2024):

Labour 46% (+3)

Conservatives 22% (-)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-)

Reform UK 9% (-2)

Greens 7% (-)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Scottish subsample: SNP 33%, Labour 33%, Conservatives 14%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Reform UK 4%, Greens 3%

It's hard to see how Labour lose from here at UK level.  You can try moving support around on a fantasy chess board, and have the Reform UK support implode and return to the Tories, but that would only get Sunak's party into the low 30s.  You could have Jeremy Corbyn set up a new left-wing party and take a few percentage points from Labour, but a) why would a splinter left-wing party prosper when a splinter right-wing party does not?, and b) my guess is that Corbyn won't form a party (as much as I'd like him to) because he won't want a divide with left-wing MPs who stay with Labour to have a chance of keeping their seats under first-past-the-post.

I remain intrigued and perhaps even grudgingly impressed by the polling success of Reform UK, which is happening in spite of what seemed to be their folly of throwing away the brand advantage of the Brexit Party name, and also in spite of no longer having a big name like Farage as leader.  They do seem to have a genuine chance of replacing the Liberal Democrats as the third most popular party, which could blunt the psychological effect of the Lib Dems replacing the SNP as the third party in the Commons.

I was surprised to see a clip of Shona Craven suggesting rather breezily that the SNP are probably still likely to emerge from the election with some sort of majority, and I'm wondering if that reflects a mood music emanating from an SNP parliamentary group that is still in denial about the full extent of its plight.  On level pegging with Labour in terms of the popular vote, as the subsample suggests, the SNP would lose on seats - and this is before a campaign that will be dominated by media coverage of the London parties and the Sunak v Starmer horserace.

Moderation policy: I've decided to experiment with switching pre-moderation off in the comments section of this blog to encourage more free-flowing debate.  The quid pro quo, though, is that I henceforth reserve the right to delete (or possibly edit) any comment for absolutely any reason I see fit, and without explanation, so please only comment if you understand and accept that.  Part of the reason I had to switch pre-moderation on in the first place was the sheer exhaustion of endlessly having to deal with people demanding explanations for their comments being deleted - so please note that any comments criticising or querying moderation decisions will generally be deleted without reply (and that applies no matter how many times you indignantly re-post them!).

*  *  *

I am currently fundraising in the hope of running a new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll in the near future - details can be found HERE, and the fundraiser page itself is HERE.

Is Scotland really going to sell itself to Labour so cheaply - or even for nothing?

Ten years ago in the approach to the indyref, Scotland famously did not have a single pro-independence daily newspaper, but now it has precisely one.  Plenty of indy supporters criticise The National for plenty of different reasons, but whatever you think of it, surely it's obvious that it's in all our interests that the paper does not fail or fold.  That's why the negative reaction to Owen Jones' appointment as a regular columnist seems misguided in the extreme to me - he's one of the star commentators of the British press, and hiring him can only boost the paper's credibility and hopefully its readership too.  

I have plenty of problems with him as an individual, mostly due to his intolerance towards anyone who disagrees with him on the trans issue.  But in many ways he's a good fit for a pro-indy paper at the moment because he seems to have genuine admiration for the way Humza Yousaf has spoken up about Gaza, and he is also scathing about Keir Starmer - which he made the subject of his first regular column.  He pointed out that even in comparison with the centre-right Tony Blair, there is no inspirational progressive vision on offer from Starmer.  We could mention devolution at this point, which was an obvious incentive for Scots to vote for Blair in 1997, but the reality is that Starmer will probably further undermine devolution, not build on it.

What seems to be about to happen is Scotland's equivalent of the Quebec portion of the Canadian federal election in 2011, when the pro-independence Bloc Québécois finally lost majority status after six consecutive election wins.  But for that to happen required a so-called 'French Kiss' from the New Democratic leader Jack Layton, who offered substantial constitutional and language concessions to the sovereigntist support base.  By contrast, Scotland seems to be selling itself to Labour in return for nothing but a Glasgow Kiss, and that's the real tragedy.

Moderation policy: I've decided to experiment with switching pre-moderation off in the comments section of this blog to encourage more free-flowing debate.  The quid pro quo, though, is that I henceforth reserve the right to delete (or possibly edit) any comment for absolutely any reason I see fit, and without explanation, so please only comment if you understand and accept that.  Part of the reason I had to switch pre-moderation on in the first place was the sheer exhaustion of endlessly having to deal with people demanding explanations for their comments being deleted - so please note that any comments criticising or querying moderation decisions will generally be deleted without reply (and that applies no matter how many times you indignantly re-post them!).

*  *  *

I am currently fundraising in the hope of running a new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll in the near future - details can be found HERE, and the fundraiser page itself is HERE.

Shepparding pro-indy votes can't work unless you're actually trying to win independence

Tommy Sheppard's column in The National suggesting that an SNP defeat in the general election would be the 'end of the journey/conversation' on independence is both fair comment and infuriating.  It's fair comment because we know what will happen if Labour win in Scotland: the media and the London political class will declare the independence issue dead, merrily dance on its grave, and will not deem even an SNP Holyrood victory in 2026 to be a resurrection.  After all, the argument will go, if "now was not the time" for independence or a referendum when the SNP dominated Scottish representation at Westminster, how can it be the time when unionists once again are ascendant in the "national parliament"?

But it's infuriating, of course, because Tommy Sheppard himself played a pivotal role in ensuring this general election is not about winning independence, with an amendment calling for more devolution instead, and yet is now lecturing independence supporters on how they have to unite behind the SNP to keep independence alive.  There's also an argument that he's being irresponsible in the language he's using, because the chances of the SNP actually pulling their election chances out of the fire are getting slim enough that we have to think about whether his words will be recited back at us as "once in a generation" were.

If it's any consolation, he's largely wasting his breath, because the SNP don't win elections by begging for pro-independence votes in a pro-independence publication.  As I pointed out in my previous post, by reversing Nicola Sturgeon's de facto referendum policy, and by reversing it quite as thoroughly as they have done, they've effectively set themselves the task of winning the general election without the pro-independence vote being galvanised.  I see no sign yet that they've recognised that reality or have fathomed a way of pulling the feat off - assuming it's even possible at all.

This is not a counsel of despair, incidentally, because I think the obvious point is that the SNP need to revisit the decision they made last autumn on the role of independence in their election strategy - and they have the time to do that.  They also need a unity SNP Cabinet and an advertising campaign to discredit Keir Starmer.  And, for the absolute love of God, they need to swallow their pride and not stand against Angus MacNeil, who is the only pro-indy candidate who can possibly stop Labour in the Western Isles.  From memory, there's a precedent of the SNP not standing in Orkney & Shetland in a general election and backing a local autonomist movement instead, so it's not as if they'd be breaking some iron law by standing aside.

Moderation policy: I'm going to experiment with switching pre-moderation off in the comments section of this blog to encourage more free-flowing debate.  The quid pro quo, though, is that I henceforth reserve the right to delete (or possibly edit) any comment for absolutely any reason I see fit, and without explanation, so please only comment if you understand and accept that.  Part of the reason I had to switch pre-moderation on in the first place was the sheer exhaustion of endlessly having to deal with people demanding explanations for their comments being deleted - so please note that any comments criticising or querying moderation decisions will generally be deleted without reply (and that applies no matter how many times you indignantly re-post them!).

*  *  *

I am currently fundraising in the hope of running a new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll in the near future - details can be found HERE, and the fundraiser page itself is HERE.