Here's the news they're not telling you: 49.4% support independence in the latest poll

In my post promoting the fundraiser for the next Scot Goes Pop poll, I made the point that one of the problems with conventional polling is that the only firm that polls regularly on independence tends to downplay good results for Yes and makes them hard to find. That's certainly true of the latest poll, because 24 hours on, how many of you are aware of just how remarkably well Yes support is holding up in the face of the Labour recovery?

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton)

Yes 49.4%

No 50.6%

I'm taking a leaf out of the Express' book here by rounding to one decimal place, because after all the press regulator IPSO decreed that was absolutely fine!  Of course the headline numbers with Don't Knows excluded are Yes 49%, No 51%, but with Don't Knows left in the rounded No lead is just 1 point (47% to 46%), and fascinatingly Yes actually has a 1 point lead before the likelihood to vote filter is applied (45% to 44%).  The bottom line, though, is that this poll is a statistical tie in which the tightness of the margin makes it impossible to know whether Yes or No has the advantage, due to the standard margin of error.

The Holyrood numbers are a quintessential curate's egg, with the SNP increasing its lead over Labour on the constituency ballot, but Labour jumping into an alarmingly significant lead on the regional list ballot.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 37% (+3)

Labour 32% (+2)

Conservatives 18% (-4)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Greens 3% (+1)

Reform UK 1% (-1)

Alba 0% (-2)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

Labour 30% (+3)

SNP 25% (-3)

Conservatives 17% (-4)

Greens 11% (+2)

Liberal Democrats 10% (+2)

Reform UK 4%

Alba 2% (-1)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 42 (-22), Labour 41 (+19), Conservatives 23 (-8), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8), Greens 11 (+3)

The seats projection comes close to proving my pernennial point that ultimately the regional list ballot is the more important vote, because there comes a point where the leading party on the constituency ballot does not have a big enough lead to prevent the list allocation of seats from correcting it efficiently.

Someone suggested this was a bad poll for Alba - maybe it technically is on the constituency ballot, but if Alba have any sense they won't stand on the constituency ballot anyway but will focus exclusively on the list, where this poll shows them on the same 2% they secured in 2021.  No breakthrough but no sign of them going away.

It shouldn't go without note that the party this poll is worst for is undoubtedly the Conservative party - they're down four points on both ballots, and it's probably not a coincidence that this mirrors what we've seen in GB-wide polls since Christmas.

It's hard to know what to make of the leaders' personal ratings - Humza Yousaf has rebounded to an almost respectable -6, perhaps due to his principled stance on Gaza, but as Keir Starmer has simultaneously and undeservedly jumped to +11, that may not be of much help.  Yousaf maintains his customary lead over Anas Sarwar on the head-to-head question of who would make the best First Minister, but only just - his advantage over the Scottish Labour leader is down to a barely-there two points (33% to 31%).

One thing that always grates on me about Redfield & Wilton's write-ups of their Scottish polls is that month in, month out, they gloat about how Scottish independence is "only the third most important issue" for Yes supporters, as if this is somehow astonishing or devastating.  In fact, since time immemorial polling has showed that Scottish voters rank bread-and-butter issues as the most important, but of course many people support independence precisely because they think an jndependent Scotland will make a better fist of handling the NHS and the economy.

Scot Goes Pop poll fundraiser: If you haven't already, please consider helping Scot Goes Pop commission a New Year poll so we as jndependence supporters can actually ask the questions we want asked and think need to be asked.  The fundraiser page is HERE, however if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk