A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - one of Scotland's three most-read political blogs.
Saturday, May 31, 2025
Massive boost for the SNP prior to the Hamilton by-election as they retain a substantial lead in full-scale Scottish poll - and support for independence has surged to astonishing 54%
The levels of support for Reform UK in one corner of Bath are Stewpefying
Gordon Millar and the gaslighting on Gaza: why did Ariel Sharon really order Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, and were his motivations really selfless enough to compel a "reward"?
Friday, May 30, 2025
A reply to Neil Sinclair and Gordon Millar: sorry chaps, but this blog does have an active moderation policy. Dehumanising language about the Palestinian ethnic group, and justifications of the calls for the extermination of that group, are not welcome here and never, ever will be.
Does anyone feel up to reporting the Express to the press regulator for this ridiculously misleading headline?
There's an article on the Scottish Daily Express website today with the title "Humiliation for SNP as Nigel Farage's Reform UK now level in shock new by-election poll". This does not in fact refer to a full-scale poll, but to the Scottish subsample from the latest GB-wide More In Common poll. It's obviously ludicrous to pass off a tiny subsample of 137 people, which is highly unlikely to have been structured and weighted correctly (as far as I'm aware only YouGov do that) as a "poll". However, we know from past experience that the press regulator IPSO think it's totally fine for newspapers to mislead readers by reporting subsamples as if they're full-scale polls. On this occasion, the Express have also reported the numbers accurately - they do show both the SNP and Reform on 24% apiece, although it took a hell of an adjustment for More In Common to get to that point. Among likely voters, the SNP actually had a comfortable lead over Reform UK of 22% to 14%. The discrepancy is caused by More In Common's approach to undecided voters - first of all a follow-up question tries to "force" undecided voters to make a choice, and if they still refuse to do so, they are then "assigned" to a party on the basis of a statistical model of how similar voters behave. My question would be whether voters in Scotland are being assigned on the basis of how supposedly "similar voters" in England behave - if so, there's bound to be a pro-Reform distortion built in. But that's an issue for More In Common, not for the Express.
Where I do think the Express have broken IPSO rules, though, is in the headline itself. IPSO are clear that their code can be considered to have been breached if the text of the article does not support a claim made by the headline, and that is clearly the case here, because the More In Common poll is not a "by-election poll". It does not relate to the Hamilton by-election in any way whatsoever. It is not a poll conducted among residents of the Holyrood constituency of Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse asking for their voting intentions for the by-election next week. Nor is it a national poll asking questions related to the by-election. It is simply a Britain-wide poll asking for voting intentions for the next Westminster general election, expected in 2028 or 2029. The Express are quite clearly trying to use the headline to give the false impression that there is a by-election poll showing the SNP and Reform level-pegging in Hamilton. No such poll exists.
If you feel up to making a formal complaint to IPSO, the complaints form can be found HERE. As regular readers will know, I've made complaints myself about the misreporting of polls in the past, with mixed results - one of my complaints against the Express was upheld, but IPSO bizarrely refused to force them to properly correct the inaccuracy. It's probably better if the complaints don't always come from the same person. If you do take the plunge, please let me know via my contact email address, which is: icehouse.250@gmail.com
If I don't hear from anyone by close of play today, I may take a deep breath and have a go myself.
Thursday, May 29, 2025
For the people of Hamilton: a choice of two futures
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
Barrhead Boy's tone-deaf meltdown puts it beyond all doubt: "Liberate Scotland" is not a credible electoral proposition, and it does not have credible leadership
Update on YouGov's Scottish subsample figures
Thank you to an anonymous commenter who has pointed out that I had the wrong Scottish subsample figures for the YouGov poll in the previous post. To be fair to myself, I was looking at the Wikipedia list of polls and an editor there must have directed the link to last week's tables by mistake. I was going to update the previous post to correct the error, but as a fair bit of what I wrote there no longer applies, I've decided to start afresh. Here are the correct numbers:
Reform UK 24%, SNP 23%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7%
This is the first time Reform have been ahead in a YouGov Scottish subsample, and doubtless some people will get very over-excited about it, but it categorically does not mean Reform are actually ahead in Scotland. Although YouGov structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly, the margin of error on any individual subsample is still enormous due to the tiny sample size.
It may well be that if a full-scale Scottish poll was conducted right now, Reform would be in a strong second place, but I very much doubt if they'd be ahead of the SNP. Still, this should be regarded as a warning shot across the bow, especially with the Hamilton by-election being so close.
Catastrophe for Keir Starmer as Labour slip to new post-election low of just 21% in YouGov poll - while the SNP lead by 9 points in the Scottish subsample
Tuesday, May 27, 2025
Any independence supporters tempted to vote for the Liberate Scotland alliance should be aware that it contains a party that wants to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights and roll back the welfare state
As many of you will know, the Alba Party faces a potentially existential threat from a new electoral alliance called 'Liberate Scotland'. In many ways this is entirely deserved, because some of the people involved in the alliance were previously well-known as Alba members but were forced out of Alba either by Stalinist "disciplinary" action (as in the case of Denise Somerville and Sean Davis) or by indirect means as a result of bullying or unjust treatment (as in the case of Eva Comrie).
It's not that I in any way expect this new alliance to be successful - in fact I think it will fail, because it's speaking "liberation" and "decolonisation" language that most ordinary voters will regard as other-worldly. From what I've been told (and this is only gossip that I've heard, guys, so don't shoot the messenger), the de facto leader of the alliance is Roddy MacLeod, aka the blogger and YouTuber "Barrhead Boy". If Alex Salmond didn't have what it took to lead a small pro-indy party to more than 2% of the vote in 2021, many will wonder if it's really likely that Barrhead Boy is the Messiah with the missing ingredients. But in a sense that isn't the point - this new alliance doesn't speak the language of the people of Scotland, but it very much does speak the language of a niche that was previously a crucial part of Alba's coalition of support. One of the reasons that Alba (or its alter ego Slanszh Media) had to set up its little-watched weekly YouTube show Tas Is Still Talking was because Barrhead Boy walked away from Alba in 2023 in solidarity with people like Eva Comrie, and he took his Prism show with him, which had previously functioned as Alba's de facto in-house broadcasting service. As far as I can gather, although Tas Is Still Talking has much, much, much higher production values than Prism (it's directed, after all, by the renowned 9/11 conspiracy theorist Zulfikar Sheikh), it has completely failed to supplant its more amateurish forerunner. Prism still has a much bigger regular audience, and I therefore think it's entirely plausible that Barrhead Boy will succeed in bringing across a substantial chunk of former Alba voters to the new alliance. If even only a quarter of former Alba voters make the switch, that could reduce Alba's share of the Holyrood list vote from 1.7% in 2021 to around 1.2% or 1.3% next year, and that could well be the psychological shock that finishes Alba off for good.
I won't be crying any crocodile tears if that happens. Over the last eighteen months, Alba has gradually revealed itself to be an absolute abomination. When I was still a member of the party, I clung to the hope and the belief that it could still be salvaged by bringing it to a greater extent under the democratic control of its members, but that proved to be utterly impossible. The ruling faction centred around Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh demonstrated that there wasn't any step, no matter how undemocratic, sleazy, corrupt or nepotistic, that they wouldn't take to maintain total control.
But however much of a relief it would be for almost everyone if the Alba shambles is finally brought to an end once and for all, I do think it's important that anyone toying with a vote for Liberate does so with their eyes wide open. It's an alliance composed of two parties (Independence for Scotland and Sovereignty) and one quasi-party or proto-party (Independents for Independence). Sovereignty's involvement will, I believe, become hugely controversial because they are generally billed as "the pro-independence answer to Reform", and therefore have policies that many will regard as straying well beyond the values of the mainstream independence movement.
Here is a selection of Sovereignty's policies, so you can make up your own mind -
* Citizenship of an independent Scotland would be based on ethnicity not residence. "Non-Scots" (exactly how this will be defined is unclear) who are resident in Scotland on independence day will be given residency rights, but seemingly not citizenship rights.
* Scotland would not be party to the European Convention on Human Rights. That is a fairly extreme position by any standards - the only European countries currently outside ECHR jurisdiction are Russia and Belarus. Is that the sort of club we want to join?
* "The church should continue to play its historic role in the provision of education, healthcare and care for the poor and needy." That is a very cagily worded sentence and I think it requires a proper and honest explanation. The church essentially gave up its historic role in providing education and caring for the poor more than a century ago when the welfare state was introduced, so the most plausible interpretation of the policy is that the welfare state would be radically rolled back and the church would be invited to provide a bargain-basement service to plug the gap. It's not clear whether only the one true Presbyterian Kirk would be permitted to do this, or whether those of us on the Papist side of the fence would get a look-in too.
* Divorce law would be de-liberalised to "encourage couples to stay together".
* Christian morality would become part of the law of the land. What form this would take is largely unspecified, although it's made clear that "usurious lending" would be outlawed in line with Christian teaching.
* Abortion rights would seemingly become more restrictive. (Because of my Catholic upbringing, I'm very conflicted on abortion and a pro-life agenda doesn't necessarily put me off, but I know it would be a red line for many.)
* "Economic migration" (otherwise known as migration) would be stopped. It would be as bald as that - it would simply be stopped.
* On the other hand, the Scottish diaspora would be given a right to return - implying a blood-and-soil immigration policy.
* There would be a pro-natalist policy, ie. to replace all the lost immigrants, couples would be cajoled by the state into having more children.
* LGBT rights (or LGB rights if you prefer) would appear to be under severe threat, because "marriage between one man and one woman" is identified as the bedrock of society.
* Net Zero would be abandoned.
* Medical care would seemingly only be guaranteed to be free in cases of "emergency".
* There's also some mildly eccentric stuff about high-altitude housing being built. Can we look forward to Goatfell New Town?
* The Nordic Model on prostitution law would be introduced. I know most Alba supporters would probably be OK with that, but I have to ask: what is it with right-wing parties and the Nordic Model? It's a policy rooted in classical Marxism, and yet right-wing politicians seem to be queuing up to back it. Maybe it's the only form of censoriousness they feel they can get away with these days.
Speaking personally, even if I hadn't rejoined the SNP in January, there is no way on God's earth I'd ever be voting for an alliance containing a party that wants to leave the ECHR - that would be an absolute dealbreaker.
There is no "context", none whatsoever, that can make it acceptable for 47% of the Israeli population to hold genocidal views
🇵🇸 Gary Lineker on Instagram: pic.twitter.com/k2GYaiNLUg
— Faithfull Ballers (@FaithfullBaller) May 26, 2025
Monday, May 26, 2025
As predicted, the controversial "Stew" blogger finds open debate tougher than he bargained for, and runs for the hills - but credit where it's due, he held out for ten days longer than expected
Are Ash Regan's predictions of a very small number of prosecutions as a result of her Nordic Model bill on prostitution law consistent with the grandiose stated objectives of the bill?
Sunday, May 25, 2025
The poll so dark that it will make you wish the polling industry didn't exist
If Starmer supports Hamas (and it would obviously be anti-semitic to doubt the word of the Israeli Prime Minister on this) shouldn't he now be detained under anti-terror laws? https://t.co/uQOrjFdhVg
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) May 23, 2025