"Brexit 2 - This Time It's The Kitchen Sink" is coming - and we mustn't squander this second opportunity to use the shock to win independence

Given how consistently the Tories have been trailing in a poor third place in the vast majority of GB-wide polls, it's easy to dismiss anything they say or do these days as a total irrelevance.  But in my view, Kemi Badenoch's announcement that a Tory government would withdraw Britain from the European Convention on Human Rights really does matter, because it actually does make it significantly more likely that "Brexit 2" will happen.  That's for two reasons - 

1) There are up to four years left to go until the general election, which leaves plenty of time for Reform to implode, just as every Farage project in the past has ultimately imploded.  If that happens, the Tories are much more likely to pick up the pieces than Labour.

2) If Reform don't implode, they may yet need the Tories as a junior coalition partner if they are to form a government.  Badenoch's decision removes any chance that Reform would have to give up on ECHR withdrawal to seal the coalition deal.

So there's now probably a 75-80% chance that within five years, Britain will be in the dubious company of Russia and Belarus as the only European countries outside the ECHR and outside the Council of Europe.  That will be a shock to the system of liberal unionists in Scotland, and if we strike while that shock is at its most raw, there'll be an opportunity to bring a significant minority of those people over to the Yes side and win a decisive majority for independence.  

But as we learned from squandering the opportunity that Brexit 1 offered to win independence, the window of opportunity will be limited, because over time liberal unionists get used to new realities and reconcile themselves to them.  So we'll need to be ready and this time there can be no procrastination.

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With less than three months of the year to go, the 2025 Scot Goes Pop fundraiser is still short of its target figure.  If you'd like to help keep the lights on during the several months it will take me to find out whether an alternative funding model is viable (realistically it could be a wait of around four months or more), card donations are welcome HERE.  Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

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