I will record a video about this poll at some point, but as I'm on a bus right now, I'll go retro and briefly give you the results in text form for the time being.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 47% (-)
No 53% (-)
Regular readers will instantly spot an obvious inconsistency here: the percentage changes in brackets (ie. showing no change at all) do not tally up with what we thought we knew about the most recent full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov, which showed Yes 49%, No 51%. That's because for at least the third time in the last year, we've just discovered that YouGov conducted a secret poll a few weeks ago, didn't publish the results, and are now expecting us to just accept that the percentage changes in the poll they've actually bothered to publish are whatever they tell us they are.
Not to put too fine a point on it: what the hell are they playing at? I'm not convinced that this behaviour is consistent with British Polling Council disclosure rules. At the very least they must be straying into a grey area, and they're undoubtedly treating the nation of Scotland with utter contempt. Everyone knows they wouldn't decide what to reveal and what not to reveal about GB-wide polls on a whim, as they seem to be regularly doing with their Scottish polls.
This revelation of course means that there was an additional independence poll in 2025 that we were previously unaware of. I don't think this will alter the fact that there was a Yes majority in an average of all polls conducted in 2025, but I'll doublecheck to be sure and let you know in the video.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 34%
Reform UK 20%
Labour 15%
Conservatives 10%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Greens 9%
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 29%
Reform UK 20%
Labour 15%
Greens 12%
Conservatives 11%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Alba 1%
This is light-years short of the percentages the SNP would require to hit John Swinney's self-imposed target of a single-party overall SNP majority, but it's plenty enough for a pro-independence majority of seats comprised of the SNP and Greens in combination. So the SNP leadership are in the enviable position of to some extent being able to simply decide whether they succeed or fail in this election. If they stick to the Hail Mary single-party majority strategy, they will almost certainly fail and set the independence cause back several years. But if they adjust their language to make clear that a pro-indy majority composed of more than one party would constitute a mandate, they will probably succeed.
It goes without saying that this is yet another polling catastrophe for Alba, who would need to multiply their current support by five, six, seven or eight times to win any seats. Spoiler alert: they're not going to do that.
More details about this poll will follow later in the video.
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