It's PARTY TIME for Plaid Cymru as stunning new Senedd poll gives them DOUBLE the support of Labour

My new YouTube commentary is about yet another remarkable Welsh Senedd poll from YouGov, which once again shows Plaid Cymru in the lead, putting Rhun ap Iorwerth firmly on course to become Plaid's first ever First Minister.  I also have the Scottish subsample numbers from the latest GB-wide YouGov poll, which are once again excellent for the SNP and dreadful for Labour.  (I've done Labour a slight injustice in the video, though - I said that I presumed these results would see them reduced to either one Scottish seat or zero Scottish seats at Westminster.  I've just checked and it would actually be three.  So not much better, but slightly better.)

The Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025, launched eight long months ago in January, has been inching closer to its target figure...but can it get there?  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop stay afloat during this prolonged transitional period while I seek to find out whether video blogging is viable as an alternative funding model, card donations are welcome HERE.    Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Another way of helping is by subscribing to my YouTube channel (which I must stress is completely free!).  I need to reach at least 1000 subscribers and I'm currently on 550.

Will Andy Burnham soon be the UK Prime Minister?

The main news of the day is the defection of Tory shadow minister Danny Kruger to Reform UK.  However, the bigger picture remains the question of how much longer Keir Starmer can stagger on as a zombie Prime Minister, and he may actually be happy enough if the Kruger defection distracts from his own plight for a little while.  There's a lot of speculation about whether Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, may attempt to get back into parliament via a by-election and then topple Starmer.  In today's YouTube commentary, I consider whether or not that possibility should be regarded as credible - and I also explore what the implications might be for the SNP.

The Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025, launched eight long months ago in January, is inching closer to its target figure...but can it get there?  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop stay afloat during this prolonged transitional period while I seek to find out whether video blogging is viable as an alternative funding model, card donations are welcome HERE.    Or, if you prefer, direct donations can be made via PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Another way of helping is by subscribing to my YouTube channel (which I must stress is completely free!).  I need to reach at least 1000 subscribers and I'm currently on 544.

Could Israel be BANNED from Eurovision 2026? The unstoppable force of Irish and Spanish determination may be about to meet the immovable object of German intransigence.

Today's YouTube commentary is about Ireland's dramatic announcement that it will withdraw from Eurovision 2026 unless Israel is at long last banned from the contest.  I can also tell you that our resident fan of "GOD IS LOVE" in big wooden letters is in for a real treat in this video.

Take me to the depths to which even Murdo Fraser will not sink. What? What do you mean "no such place exists"?

Murdo Fraser on Twitter: "You were deputy to a First Minister who said ‘I detest the Tories’.
Just yesterday you called @CraigWHoy1 ‘disgusting’ and ‘despicable’ for raising constituents’ concerns over asylum hotels.
There’s a link between othering & demonising opponents & events in the US."
Do better. https://t.co/GC1ptnzqvU

— Murdo Fraser (@murdo_fraser) September 11, 2025

That's a despicable comment from Fraser. Imagine using a murder to make a petty opportunistic attack on a political opponent. The Scottish Tories are disappearing down the plughole and are showing their true colours in their futile fight against the inevitable. https://t.co/cQHWLSIZlL

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 11, 2025

He's rightly pointing out the double standards, hypocrisy and self-awareness bypass of the First Minister you cretin.

— Blues Brother (@wavydot) September 11, 2025

On reflection, are you proud of that tweet?

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 11, 2025

No idea who this guy is, but his attempts at spreading hate seem to have fallen pretty flat. Not a single like or share.
Oh, and it’s ‘Mr Fraser’ to you. https://t.co/fTSQw0akVv

— Murdo Fraser (@murdo_fraser) September 11, 2025

Gutted that my stellar year on the Alba NEC apparently passed you by, Murds, but c'est la vie. Oh, and that's Mr Guy to you.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 11, 2025

Murdo will be disappointed to learn that my original tweet has now been retweeted and liked, although there is actually a semi-serious point here.  Somerset Stew is forever gloating about my engagement rate on Twitter as well (presumably because Scot Goes Pop's steady rise up the SimilarWeb rankings over the last year has left him in need of a different angle), but the reality is that I have 12,000 followers on Twitter and there is something profoundly strange about the low engagement rate generated by such a large number of followers over the last couple of years.  I am scarcely the first person to wonder whether Elon Musk or one of his minions has 'massaged' the Twitter algorithms to target certain types of account - although whether I've fallen foul of that because I'm a general leftie, or because I'm a MAGA critic, or because I'm an opponent of genocide in Gaza, I have no idea.  What I will say is that I regularly post identical tweets on Twitter and BlueSky, and the engagement rate on BlueSky for the same tweet is often better than on Twitter - even though I have just 184 followers on BlueSky.  Draw your own conclusions.

SNP stay way out in front in simply sumptuous Scottish subsample from YouGov

Today's YouTube commentary is about the latest weekly GB-wide YouGov poll, and in particular its Scottish subsample - which is another good news story for the SNP.  You can watch via the embedded player below, or at the direct YouTube link.

Stew's Legal Howler: Controversial Wings blogger makes bizarre FALSE CLAIM about the Alex Salmond trial

What makes the current Swinney 'independence plan' so dangerous: for the first time ever, the SNP would be seeking votes in a way that would benefit the party but harm independence. That decoupling of the SNP's interests from the cause of independence must simply never happen.

In today's YouTube commentary, I respond to an email I received a couple of days ago asking for my opinion about two completely separate proposals that have been sent to the First Minister John Swinney.  The first is about reform of the Holyrood voting system, abolishing what is described as the "constituency penalty" which awards less value to list votes for a party that has already won a lot of seats on the constituency ballot.  The second is about a change to Mr Swinney's plan for winning independence, and suggests quite an imaginative way forward after an SNP victory in next year's election.  Basically a motion would be presented to parliament demanding that Westminster pass a Section 30 order permanently transferring the power to call an independence referendum to Holyrood, but also stipulating that if the demand is not met, there would be an early dissolution and a snap election would be held as a de facto referendum on the country's constitutional future.

In the video I explain why I agree with the second proposal (with caveats) but not with the first, which would inadvertently abolish proportional representation for the Scottish Parliament and leave us with a majoritarian voting system that is almost as bad as unalloyed first-past-the-post.  I also try to find the nub of what makes Mr Swinney's independence plan as it stands so harmful, and it's this: until now, what is good for the SNP electorally and what is good for the cause of independence has always been inseparable.  If you help the SNP do well in an election, you're pretty much automatically boosting independence.  But for the first time, the Swinney plan would create a situation where the SNP would be seeking votes in a way that would genuinely benefit the party while simultaneously harming the cause of independence.  That would be a very dangerous decoupling which must never be allowed to happen, and that's why the Swinney plan must at the very least be modified at conference.  Power for the SNP is not an end in itself - the SNP must always remain a vehicle for independence or else the whole endeavour becomes pointless.  An empty shell.

You can watch the video via the embedded player below, or at the direct YouTube link.

Ian Murray: one of history's most deserved sackings

Given the extremes that Scottish politics has oscillated between over the last three decades, with repeated wipeouts or near-wipeouts of the Scottish Tories and Scottish Labour at Westminster, there have been a number of occasions when someone has found themselves as either Secretary of State for Scotland or Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland on a "last person standing" basis.  Presumably, or at least one would hope, both Peter Duncan and David Mundell had some self-awareness or insight into the fact that they only had the job for that reason, but in the case of Ian Murray we don't even need to wonder - he clearly has no insight whatsoever.  He honestly believes himself to be a political colossus, and thinks that the reason he was the only Scottish Labour MP left after the 2015 and 2019 general elections was his unique skill-set and political vision - not because of his immense fortune in being the candidate in Edinburgh South, the constituency which just happened to be most conducive to mass unionist tactical voting in favour of Labour.  He imagines that there are now 30-odd Scottish Labour MPs simply because they all followed the Murray Blueprint.  To him it makes perfect sense that he was converted from Shadow Scottish Secretary to Scottish Secretary last July, even though Starmer had just gone from having no choice to having dozens of alternatives.  But it made sense to practically no-one else.  Murray is an unlikeable character, and the most noteworthy thing about him was his previous principled stance in opposition to Trident, which he abandoned at the drop of a hat when it proved necessary to cling on to office.  You shouldn't have bothered, Ian - now you have no ministerial job, and no principles either.

The shock of dismissal doesn't seem to have jolted Murray into a more realistic appraisal of his own abilities - we're told he is "genuinely shocked" and "flabbergasted" to have been given the push.  Seriously, Ian?  You can't conceive of any of your dozens of Scottish colleagues being more able or charismatic than you are?

Still, we shouldn't underestimate Starmer - he's perfectly capable of stunning us all by appointing someone even worse.

Rayner is OUT as Deputy PM - but nature abhors a vacuum, and it's likely that an alternative soft left champion would emerge in any early leadership election

Angela Rayner has just resigned as Deputy Prime Minister, although I can't see from the initial reporting whether she has also resigned as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party (an elected rather than appointed position, of course).  The latter point could be crucial in terms of her long-term political future, although if a vacancy for the leadership were to come up in the next few months, her goose would still be pretty cooked.

Understandably, punters think her chances of replacing Starmer have just fallen off a cliff.  She had been favourite for a time, but these are the latest odds - 

Wes Streeting 6.8

Andy Burnham 8.4

Yvette Cooper 15

Darren Jones 19.5

Angela Rayner 22

Bridget Phillipson 25

Rachel Reeves 30

Ed Miliband 34

Some people will assume that Wes Streeting's chances have strengthened dramatically, but you have to look at this from the point of view of those who will ultimately make the decision - ie. Labour party members.  In this particular scenario, they are not likely to conclude that the problem is that the current leadership is not sufficiently right-wing, because Starmer has pushed the party as far to the right as it has ever been (including in the Blair years).  They are much more likely to be looking for a soft left corrective, and if Rayner can no longer provide that, they'll try to seek out an alternative champion.  Andy Burnham is the person who would most obviously fit the bill - but just one snag, he's not actually eligible because he's not an MP.  That can theoretically be overcome but not easily.

So I think the person whose chances have just improved dramatically is Ed Miliband.  That may not be showing up in the odds yet, but I think the logic for it is sound.

Neale, in all seriousness, if you honestly think the Alba Party through its appalling behaviour has not abandoned its founding principles, then I can't even imagine what you think those principles actually were, but they certainly can't have been worth having. https://t.co/QZbPaId2kT

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 5, 2025

Astounding poll puts the SNP on course to win more than THREE TIMES as many seats as any other party

Today's YouTube commentary is of course about the new Scottish poll from More In Common - the first full-scale Scottish poll from any company since June.  The seats projection from the poll is pretty extraordinary, showing the SNP on 61 seats - just four short of a single-party overall majority.  However, if anyone is tempted to think that this means John Swinney's plans to make an independence referendum conditional on the SNP winning an overall majority may not be quite so misjudged after all, I'm afraid that's not the case, and I explain why in the video.  I also give my thoughts on the SNP event this morning, which doubled down on the Swinney plan.