Friday, September 27, 2024

Thoughts on Russell Findlay's win in the Scottish Tory leadership election

The irony has often been noted that Labour and not the Tories are self-conscious about being a party of diversity, and yet it's the Tories not Labour that have produced three female Prime Ministers and one ethnic minority Prime Minister.  The argument is that the Tories will always choose merit when they see it, whereas Labour will allow unconscious prejudice to get in the way.  However, judging from Meghan Gallacher's poor result this morning, it looks like the Scottish Tories choosing a leader with a working class accent will remain the Final Frontier for many years to come.

Scottish Conservative leadership election result:

Russell Findlay 2565 
Murdo Fraser 1187 
Meghan Gallacher 403

Possibly the SNP and Labour have both dodged a bullet with Gallacher's failure.  It's hard to know for sure, because the Tories might have found that the downsides of having her as leader would have outweighed the upsides, but the one thing that might just have caused working class voters in west-central Scotland to take another look at the Tories would have been a Tory leader who speaks just like them.

Someone on the previous thread suggested it was a shame independence supporters didn't infiltrate the Tories and swing the contest for Murdo Fraser.  But that might be a case of 'careful what you wish for', because an independent centre-right party free of Tory branding, portraying itself as patriotically-Scottish-but-oh-isn't-independence-such-a-bore might actually have done quite well. Look at what happened with the CAQ in Quebec.

No, we may be just as well having Russell Findlay, who will change nothing and doesn't strike me as Mr Charisma.  He's a more credible figure than Douglas Ross, but then so are most hamsters.  And assuming the Tories are mostly in the market for committed unionist voters, a slightly more competent leader may even do us a favour by drawing support away from Labour.

It was Ruth Davidson who originally pushed Douglas Ross as some sort of Messiah, wasn't it?  That says a lot about her own much-vaunted political judgement.

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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER 2024: Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  The fundraiser page can be found HERE, or direct donations can be made via Paypal.  My Paypal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Big win for the SNP in Perth City North by-election

There was a by-election double-header in Perth & Kinross yesterday, and as is often the case in the wacky world of STV by-elections, things are not quite as they seem.  The Perth City North result is being billed as an SNP gain from Labour, but in fact it's a ward where the SNP were defending a huge lead and their vote share dropped.  The Strathallan result is being billed as a Liberal Democrat gain from the Conservatives, and indeed there was a Conservative lead in the ward last time around - but on first preferences there was this time too.  The Lib Dems only won on transfers.

Perth City North by-election first preference votes (26th September 2024):

SNP 44.7% (-10.5)
Labour 15.3% (-0.1)
Conservatives 14.4% (-5.1)
Reform UK 10.2% (n/a)
Alba 6.5% (+4.3)
Liberal Democrats 4.6% (+0.4)
Greens 4.2% (+0.8)

Strathallan by-election first preference votes (26th September 2024):

Conservatives 32.1% (-14.6)
Liberal Democrats 30.0% (+18.6)
SNP 17.4% (-17.5)
Labour 11.2% (n/a)
Reform UK 6.0% (n/a)
Greens 3.3% (-3.7)

Within minutes of the Perth City North result being announced, there was synchronised tweeting about it from John Swinney, Pete Wishart and Jim Fairlie, and in spite of the 10 point drop in the SNP vote, it's probably fair to say this is a solid result for the SNP.  They didn't win a single local by-election anywhere in Scotland in the whole time Humza Yousaf was leader, so to win even the safest of wards by such a big margin must be regarded as pretty satisfying.  Although Labour's vote in the ward has only declined very slightly, they're effectively stuck where they were in 2022 - when nationally they were in a distant second place and only just barely ahead of the third-placed Tories.  You'd expect better from a party that won the general election in Scotland less than three months ago, and it bears out the message of recent opinion polls that Labour are suffering from Keir Starmer's unforced errors.

That said, Labour's result in Strathallan is actually OK in a ward that has been poor for them in the past - they didn't bother standing in 2022, but in 2017 they took only 5% of the vote, while in 2012 they took 10%.  The SNP's showing in Strathallan is disappointing, there's no getting away from that, and it's hard to escape the impression that there must have been some kind of direct movement from the SNP to the Lib Dems, who did have a genuinely impressive result in spite of not quite topping the poll on first preferences.

If there's a common thread to the two by-elections, it's the strong showing from Reform UK, and that does look like an increasing problem as Holyrood 2026 comes into view.  Unless Reform UK's Scotland-wide vote drifts downwards to 5% or below, they may win enough list seats to make it very hard for the pro-independence majority at Holyrood to be maintained, even if the SNP stay in first place.

If I was being Machiavellian, I'd say what is required is a pro-independence party on the radical right to take on Reform UK on their own terms.  That won't happen, of course, so perhaps some shameless left-wing economic populism is the order of the day to try to win back the disaffected voters drifting to Reform.

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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER 2024: Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  The fundraiser page can be found HERE, or direct donations can be made via Paypal.  My Paypal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Dedication, ooooh dedication, that's what made Keir a record-breaker, yeah

Just a quick note to let you know that I have an article in The National today about Keir Starmer's record-breaking journey from landslide victory in early July to deep unpopularity in the polls in late September.  I'm not sure if it's in the main part of the website, but it can be found on page 8 of the print or digital edition. [UPDATE: It's now also on the main part of the website HERE.]

Monday, September 23, 2024

A personal statement about Chris McEleny's decision to suspend me from the Alba Party for the heinous crime of (*checks notes*) blogging

Over the last two weeks, I have sent three short and to-the-point emails to Chris McEleny, the General Secretary of the Alba Party, seeking the further information and clarification I am fully entitled to after his bizarre message out of the blue announcing that the NEC had removed me from my elected position on the Constitution Review Group - something the NEC had literally no power to do under the existing constitution.  (A person's party membership can be temporarily suspended pending a disciplinary hearing, but the NEC has no power to simply remove someone on an 'a la carte' basis from their elected position on an individual committee.  It would be total chaos if they did have that power - if there was a troublesome minority on the NEC itself, for example, the majority could simply vote that minority out of existence.)

Because Mr McEleny ignored the first email, I made sure that the two subsequent emails were copied to the Deputy General Secretary (Corri Wilson), the party chair (Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh) and the party leader (Alex Salmond) - just so I would know there was no danger that they would be overlooked accidentally.  All four individuals have quite plainly made an intentional decision to ignore my messages for fourteen days.  In my opinion, for any party member to be treated in that way is disgraceful and an act of carefully calculated contempt.  I would be lying if I said that this has not lessened my respect for these four people, which used to be considerable, and sky-high in the case of Mr Salmond.  There was a time, actually, when I used to hear from Mr Salmond quite frequently by phone - but, of course, that was when he needed people like me to put his side of the story following his trial and to try to ensure enough support was there among committed Yessers to get Alba off the ground if and when the launch came.  I was once warned by someone who has known Mr Salmond for far, far longer than I have that one of his greatest faults, ironically, is a lack of personal loyalty - if someone is no longer deemed useful, he'll drop them like a hot brick.  My reaction was "not to worry, I'm big enough and ugly enough to look after myself, and I'm not naive either - I know how ruthless many senior politicians are".  All of that still stands, but my goodness, what a prescient observation that person made.  No longer am I needed to defend Mr Salmond's reputation after dodgy proceedings against him - now he is the instigator of dodgy proceedings against me, and conveniently the phone has fallen completely silent.  My liberty is not at stake, of course, so my situation is infinitely less stressful than Mr Salmond's was five years ago.  But suffice to say that this little irony has not gone unnoticed by me or by others.

I finally received an email today from Mr McEleny, but it continued to completely ignore all of the emails I had sent him over the last two weeks.  It simply informed me that I have now been suspended from the party, pending a Disciplinary Committee hearing, due to new allegations that I have publicly "attacked the party" on this blog and on Twitter.  I of course have done no such thing - I have made legitimate, measured and well-reasoned criticisms of the party leadership's actions in specific areas.  I must say that there is a whiff of Stalinism about any party leadership that cannot differentiate between itself and the wider party, and thus regards any criticism of itself as an attack on the party.  This is absolutely no surprise, though, because I have been an elected member of the Alba Disciplinary Committee since January, and I have seen exactly the threadbare, nonsensical reasons that have been put forward for expulsions and lengthy suspensions.  Confidentiality rules have, frankly, been abused over that period to ensure that Alba members do not have a clue of the outrageous things that have been going on behind the scenes.  I have known for months and I haven't been able to say anything.

It is the very problem of a party leadership that thinks it is the party that I have been trying to address in the Constitutional Review Group since January - in other words I have been battling against the odds to try to turn a sham internal party democracy, one where everything is carefully controlled and managed by a self-perpetuating leadership elite, into a real democracy in which the members can if they want change things for the better without the leadership's permission.  I have not done that to "attack" the party, I have done it to try to rescue a party that will otherwise be in a death-spiral if it alienates and loses any more members.  It now seems obvious to me that Alba was actually set up as a small, private version of the SNP for a few closely-connected families and friends to control in a way that suited themselves - although nobody bothered to mention that to the thousands of people from outside the in-group who joined and were promised a 'member-led' party.  It's actually much more like a private living-room rather than a fully-fledged political party.  We had an extraordinary demonstration last year that the leadership will even cancel internal election results if they dislike the outcome - I doubt if even the Sturgeon clique would ever have dared go quite that far in the SNP.  Anecdotally, I've been left in no doubt that Alex Salmond had been monitoring the progress of those votes and only made the final decision to nullify them once he was sure the "wrong" people had won.  If democracy had prevailed, Denise Findlay rather than Rob Thompson would currently be Organisation Convener, and Jacqueline Bijster rather than Daniel Jack would currently be Membership Support Convener.  Instead, we have a de facto autocracy.  I am nowhere near as big a threat to that autocracy as Ms Findlay, Ms Bijster and Eva Comrie were, but it seems that the leadership are being very thorough and meting out draconian treatment to even the lesser threats like myself.

Having served on the Disciplinary Committee for months, I know all too well that in its current composition it is a rubberstamp for the leadership.  Things were a bit more evenly balanced at the start of the year, but following Marjorie Ellis Thompson's early resignation as convener and Alan Harris' automatic removal from the committee after he left the party, the leadership now have a 100% dependable majority, and of course I won't be allowed to sit in judgement on myself, which makes the majority even bigger.  So whatever Mr McEleny wants the outcome of the hearing to be, that will be the outcome.  This latest development is, therefore, fully consistent with Yvonne Ridley's boast to have inside information that a decision has already been taken to expel me from the Alba Party.  The only thing that might theoretically stand in the way is the Appeals Committee, and to be honest I'm not sure if that's a more independent body - although the one appeal I am aware of this year was dismissed, so that doesn't bode well.

Nevertheless, I will be challenging both the Disciplinary Committee and the Appeals Committee to demonstrate that the Alba leadership are not presiding over a Mickey Mouse organisation in which the procedures are just for show, and to do that by actually applying due process.  I haven't been given a date yet for the first hearing, but when it takes place I will have the right to bring with me another Alba member for support.  That person will not be able to "represent" me as such, but having sat through several disciplinary hearings this year, with my jaw dropping to the floor on multiple occasions at what I was witnessing, I think it might well be useful to have an independent witness to events, if nothing else.  So if you're a current Alba member and if you think you might be able to help at the meeting (particularly if you have legal expertise or some sort of equivalent), please drop me a line at: icehouse.250@gmail.com

A final point.  Mr McEleny's allegations in the email suspending me are once again incredibly vague, and the closest thing he gets to specificity is by complaining that I publicly criticised Shannon Donoghue and Yvonne Ridley (he doesn't mention them by name but there's no-one else he can be referring to). I have made clear that I was subjected to attempted bullying during my period on the Constitution Review Group, by two people in particular.  One of those was Shannon Donoghue, and to a small extent her bullying attempts spilled over into the public domain on Twitter, with one particular episode just after the general election in July.  Yvonne Ridley, meanwhile, has I believe actually publicly posted the full exchange in which she attempted to bully me a couple of weeks ago.  She blocked me immediately after posting it, so I wasn't able to doublecheck that she had quoted both of us fully and accurately, but if she has, I don't think there's much room for doubt about which direction the menace and poison was coming from.  So the Alba leadership is now very publicly showing itself to have no interest in protecting party members from bullying, and there's one simple and over-riding reason for that - ie. the bullies themselves are actually in charge, or at the very least are in positions of enormous influence due to connections of family and friendship.  The disciplinary process is in itself a useful tool by which an enhanced form of bullying can be administered.

I fully expect the forthcoming process to be a charade and that I will be expelled.  I'm not sure even Keir Starmer would expel people just for criticising the Labour leadership in blogposts, but this is the grotesque place we find ourselves - Alba is now more authoritarian than Starmer's Labour party.  I was advised by someone in this blog's comments section the other day to start looking ahead to life outside Alba just in case the worst comes to the worst, and of course I've been doing that: I have no intention of being left politically homeless if the Alba leadership expel me from a party that I have worked extremely hard for over the last three years.  In the meantime, though, I've never backed down in the face of bullying in my life, and I don't intend to start now.  I will be seeing what might risibly be described as this "disciplinary" process through to its conclusion.

Sunday, September 22, 2024

Survation poll confirms that Labour have lost their lead in Scotland - and suggests the Scottish public wants Devo Max

When the Opinium poll came out the other day showing the SNP seven points ahead, I did raise the possibility that the SNP might have been flattered due to an Opinium house effect, because a couple of previous Opinium polls had also been unusually favourable.  I didn't think that was likely, but I may have to revisit that verdict because I now realise that a Survation poll also came out on Wednesday and showed the SNP and Labour roughly level-pegging.  Nevertheless, that's still a good news story for the SNP, even if it's on a more modest scale than Opinium.  

I really can't emphasis this enough for people who haven't previously looked at polling trends immediately after a general election.  What would usually be happening at this stage is that there would be considerable novelty surrounding the new government - the people who had elected it would be euphoric, and the people who did not elect it would be influenced by that euphoria and some of them would even start thinking that they made a mistake or were too cautious and should have voted in line with the tide.  That would generally push the winning party further ahead in the opinion polls than they were on polling day.  It's a temporary effect but it can usually be expected to last at least a good few months. 

With the added factor that a lot of people seem to be a bit jaded with the SNP government in Edinburgh, it would have been entirely reasonable to expect a Labour lead over the SNP of anything between about 8 and 20 points at this stage.  Instead, Labour have lost their lead entirely, which speaks volumes about just how dreadful Starmer's first few weeks in office have been, and bodes extremely poorly for Anas Sarwar's hopes of becoming First Minister in two years' time.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Survation):

SNP 31%
Labour 31%
Conservatives 14%
Reform UK 11%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Greens 3%
Alba 1%

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 31%
Labour 31%
Conservatives 13%
Reform UK 9%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Greens 6%
Alba 1%

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 28%
Labour 26%
Conservatives 14%
Reform UK 10%
Greens 10%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Alba 3%

Seats projection: SNP 40, Labour 39, Conservatives 17, Liberal Democrats 13, Greens 10, Reform UK 10

Survation's data tables round the numbers to two decimal places, and for what it's worth on that measure the SNP have a slight lead across the board: they're 30.93% to 30.76% ahead of Labour on the Holyrood constituency ballot, and 31.16% to 30.80% ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intentions.

The independence numbers are less good than in the Opinium or More In Common polls, but nevertheless Survation becomes one of three out of four pollsters who in anniversary week have shown the Yes vote higher than it was in 2014.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46%
No 54%

Survation's client for this poll was Progress Scotland, the organisation run by Angus Robertson.  They've taken a leaf out of my book on this occasion - maybe not intentionally, but it's almost identical to something I did in a Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll around four years ago when I asked a simple question about whether Scotland should rejoin the European Union, without specifying whether that would be as an independent country.  I think that's a really useful question, because it forces unionist respondents to answer about what they think should happen to Scotland in particular, rather than the UK as whole, while also allowing them to leave their views on independence to one side.  The pro-European majority this time is even stronger than it was in the Scot Goes Pop poll.

If there was a referendum on membership of the European Union tomorrow, how would you vote on the question: "Should Scotland join the European Union?"

Scotland should join the European Union: 69%
Scotland should not join the European Union: 31%

I know that a non-trivial minority of independence campaigners have misgivings about the EU and hanker after decoupling the independence cause from pro-Europeanism, but when you look at figures like the ones above, it's hard not to conclude that it would be strategically foolish to go down that road, and that if anything, the SNP should be ramping up the pro-EU message and trying to tap into anger about Brexit and Scotland's will being ignored.  Only 20% of Yes voters from 2014 would vote against Scotland joining the EU, while an extraordinary 54% of No voters want back into the EU.

Also encouraging is that by substantial margins, respondents think the Scottish Parliament and not Westminster should have control over pensions, taxation, the cost of living, energy policy, public transport, crime, human rights, employment rights, relations with Europe, the environment, immigration, social security, and the calling of any independence referendum.  The only exceptions, ie. policy areas where respondents prefer Westminster control, are national security and foreign policy - and on the latter the margin is pretty narrow.

In a nutshell, this is a population that strongly favours Devo Max - the genuine type, not the Jackie Bird version.

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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER 2024: Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  The fundraiser page can be found HERE, or direct donations can be made via Paypal.  My Paypal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk