Saturday, December 21, 2024

Your golden link to keep handy for whenever you encounter a true believer in "BBC impartiality"

I'd encourage everyone to read Owen Jones' remarkable investigative piece on Drop Site News about the sources of the BBC's pro-Israel bias during the ongoing genocide in Gaza.  And then I'd invite everyone to bookmark the page and make sure you always have it handy, because I think it will prove to be invaluable in the years to come.  Although it's primarily about why the BBC cannot be trusted in its reporting of Gaza, it also has the side-benefit of powerfully demonstrating why the BBC cannot be trusted in its reporting of domestic UK or Scottish politics either.  We all have people in our lives who still think the BBC is impartial in the way it covers the Scottish constitutional debate and that anyone who suggests otherwise is a tinfoil hat zoomer, so gently encouraging people like that to read Jones' piece with an open mind might be the first step for them on the road to enlightenment.

A particularly damning section is about Robbie Gibb, who hilariously is "charged with helping to define the BBC’s commitment to impartiality", even though - 

1) He is the brother of a former Tory government minister

2) He is the former chief of staff to a Tory MP

3) He is the former Director of Communications for the Tory Prime Minister Theresa May

4) He was knighted by Theresa May

5) He was described two years ago by former Newsnight presenter Emily Maitlis as an "active agent of the Conservative party"

6) Until only a few months ago, he was the 100% owner of the rabidly pro-Netanyahu, pro-genocide newspaper the Jewish Chronicle

It's the revelation about the Jewish Chronicle that made my jaw drop to the floor, because if the BBC's impartiality safeguards were functioning as they're supposed to, that should have been enough to lead to Gibb's instant dismissal from his BBC role.  

During my battles a year or two back with the press regulator IPSO, which is largely a sham regulator, I read up about the small minority of complaints that IPSO have upheld over the years and discovered that the Jewish Chronicle is by far the biggest offender.  If you read comments IPSO have published about the Jewish Chronicle, you'll find that they basically regard the paper as staffed by hyper-partisan amateurs who push an agenda without even bothering with the basics of journalism.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

A reply to Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, who was ultimately responsible for commissioning the Norstat poll question about the monarchy and independence, left a series of irate comments on Scot Goes Pop yesterday.  Quite frankly I think he was bang out of order, and in any other circumstances I would just have deleted his comments.  But instead I replied to his "points", such as they were, and I will do so again in more detail here.

His first complaint was that I had not stated that his question had been a bolt-on to the same Norstat / Sunday Times poll that showed a Yes vote of 54% on the standard independence question.  The reason I did not state that is that I did not know, and there was no possible way I could have known for sure.  The data tables were not available on the Norstat website, so all I had to go on was Gordon's own tortuously-worded article on the Believe in Scotland website, which seemed to be going out of its way to make it as difficult as possible to work out whether a bolt-on question had been added to the Sunday Times poll or whether a wholly separate poll had been conducted.  So I accurately stated the position as it stood - that Gordon's wording had been ambiguous and it was therefore impossible to be sure, but my impression was that a separate poll had been conducted.

Gordon harrumphs that he had made the position "quite clear" in the first sentence of the second paragraph of his "announcement".  Er, no you didn't, Gordon.  That was the very sentence that led me to form the strong impression that you had commissioned a separate poll and not a bolt-on question, and any other reasonable person would have reached the same conclusion.  This is what you said in that sentence - 

"Believe in Scotland have always used Norstat as our polling provider and we had a poll of our own going at the same time with the same panel of respondents."

For future reference, Gordon, if you don't want to convey the false impression that you had commissioned a separate poll, it might be best to try not to use highly misleading words like "we had a poll of our own going at the same time". The bit about "the same panel of respondents" did not clear the mists, because by definition all Norstat polls use the same panel - that's the way online polling firms operate. If you had instead said "the same sample", that would have been of more help.  But you did not.

Frankly, my guess is that Gordon used ambiguous language quite deliberately, because he feared that directly admitting his question was a bolt-on or "piggy-back" to the Sunday Times poll would have somehow diminished the prestige of his exercise.  That in my view is an unwarranted concern, but I think that's probably what was going on.

The cherry on the cake of Gordon's rant was this concluding sentence - 

"James you could have just called me have we not always got on well enough?"

I mean, what?  Scot Goes Pop is a polling analysis blog that tries to get as much information out as possible, as quickly as possible. Am I supposed to put everything on hold for twelve hours every time there is a point of ambiguity in the way a poll is reported, in the forlorn hope that I might get a clarifying reply from the Scotsman or whatever?  I don't operate that way, and I don't plan to start operating that way.  

And as it happens, Gordon, I don't think I've got your phone number.  Having thought about it, the last time I spoke to you was way back in May 2021 when we appeared together on Independence Live's election results show. I doubt if that date is a coincidence, because I've formed the distinct impression that you and your organisations have quietly distanced yourselves from the likes of me since 2021 - not out of any personal animosity, but simply because you were hostile to the Alba project and were distancing yourselves from anyone associated with it.

But nevertheless it's true that before then we had always got on well enough, which is probably why I held back on Thursday from pointing out the elephant in the room, namely the downright dodgy wording of your poll question - 

If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?

The words "so Scotland's governance would be fully democratic" are insanely leading.  Even leaving aside the more general problems with hypothetical poll questions that I previously discussed, the use of such leading wording means the results of the poll are of very dubious worth.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Friday, December 20, 2024

What is the 1989 analogy here: is it Wenceslas Square, or a prelude to Tiananmen Square? Nobody can quite work out whether it's safe to topple the statues, as news breaks that the post of General Secretary of the Alba Party is to be sensationally ABOLISHED

I follow the Moskva
Down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of CHA-ANGE
An August summer night
Soldiers passing by
Listening to the wind of CHA-ANGE

Take me 
To the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow dream away (dream away)
In the wind of CHANGE
Mmmmm

As has been well-rehearsed in recent weeks and months, Chris McEleny has sweeping powers over members of the Alba Party that would make many a dictator blush, even though on paper he is no more than a paid employee of the party.  It's rather akin to giving a civil servant powers to impose the death penalty on random passers-by.  To the best of my knowledge Mr McEleny holds no elected position within the party whatsoever.  So what happens if his paid job suddenly disappears?

We may find out in the relatively near future, because the weekly Alba email has dramatically revealed that the positions of General Secretary (held by Mr McEleny) and Deputy General Secretary (held by Corri Wilson) are likely to be abolished, although this will be dependent on constitutional amendments.  It's not clear whether the true underlying motivation for the decision is primarily cost-saving (as the email implies), or whether concerns over the way Mr McEleny has exercised his dictatorial powers, and the countless casualties he has left in his wake, are shared in the upper reaches of the party.

The email states that Mr McEleny's functions will be replaced by dedicated roles among party staff covering areas such as "media" and "campaigning".  But there's no word on what will happen to his regal powers allowing him to arbitrarily suspend party members at his whim and press for their expulsion.  One obvious possibility is that those powers will simply be transferred to the unelected party chair, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, which will not constitute any sort of improvement at all.  Or perhaps Mr McEleny will just carry on, and even double down on the purges, with a new job title.

Whatever the details turn out to be, the change is unlikely to save me from expulsion, because presumably Mr McEleny and Ms Wilson will still be in harness when my appeal is heard on 8th January.  But in the best case scenario, there may now be an unexpected glimmer of hope for those Alba members who have yet to be expelled or suspended or bullied out of the party (it was only ever a matter of time, guys).

More analysis of the Norstat poll suggesting 59% would vote for independence if it means abolishing the monarchy

Just a quick note to let you know I have a new analysis piece at The National about the new poll suggesting a commitment to republicanism would increase Yes support by five percentage points.  You can read it HERE.

Thursday, December 19, 2024

No, the Believe in Scotland poll does not mean promising a republic would boost Yes support (in fact the opposite is probably true)

As you may have seen by now, Believe in Scotland have commissioned a Norstat poll asking about support for independence in the hypothetical scenario that the Yes campaign promises that the monarchy will be abolished.  The write-up is slightly ambiguous on the context in which the question was asked, but the impression I get is that this was not a bolt-on question added to the Sunday Times poll that found 54% Yes support for independence on the standard referendum question.  In other words, the Believe in Scotland question was asked to a different sample of respondents.

If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?

Yes 59%
No 41%

This is a potentially quite dangerous result, because it could lead people down a very deep rabbit hole.  Believe in Scotland are arguing that it means promising a republic would instantly add five percentage points to Yes support, but it really, really doesn't mean that.  Quick fixes of that sort generally aren't available, but if anything this particular suggestion of a quick fix would be highly likely to backfire and reduce Yes support.

So why has the poll produced such a misleading result? It's well known that hypothetical questions, asking "if condition A applied, how would you vote in response to question B?" do not produce reliable numbers.  For example, in the run-up to the EU referendum, any number of polls purported to show that a Leave vote would result in big majority support for independence, but that didn't materialise when the event actually arose.

The reason is probably that respondents tend to focus on "condition A" much more than they do on the main meat of "question B".  If you oppose Brexit, or if you hate the monarchy, your natural reaction will be to demonstrate how strongly you feel about the subject, ie. "yeah, I'd do anything to stop Brexit, even vote for independence!", but when the question actually comes up in the real world, you focus on how you feel about independence itself, and Brexit or the monarchy fades into the background.  It may still affect your thinking but not to anything like the same degree.

The reason why tying a Yes vote to a republic would be unhelpful is that everyone knows that the UK will retain the monarchy.  So republicans have nowhere else to go - even if the pro-independence campaign is explicitly monarchist, there's no reason why republicans wouldn't vote Yes, because it would leave them no worse off.  By contrast, monarchist voters will always have an alternative if you push them too far - if the Yes campaign is overtly republican, that might just tip the balance and lead monarchists to vote No.

That said, the replacement of the former Queen with the less popular Charles may mean it's now safer for any future Yes campaign to adopt a position of neutrality on the monarchy, and say that the people will decide the issue later in a separate referendum.  That may well be the most sensible course, and I suspect that's what would happen.

If there is any significance to the Believe in Scotland poll, it may be that it implies that the 54% Yes vote in the Sunday Times poll was not a fluke, because it's hard to see how you'd get to 59% support on the hypothetical question unless baseline Yes support was also very high.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Wings is following the "OTHER STUFF" signpost

A typically jaw-dropping comment from Wings in his latest blogpost - 

"And to be honest, readers, living to see the truth finally come to light is the main driver that’s keeping this website going. There is no hope of Scottish independence under the current SNP."

The truth he's talking about is the truth about any conspiracy intended to put Alex Salmond in jail for crimes he did not commit.

For years now, Mr Campbell's fan club has screamed blue bloody murder at anyone who has dared to suggest that Wings is no longer a pro-independence blog, in spite of the fact that - a) Mr Campbell said he would abstain in any new referendum on independence, b) he urged his readers to vote Labour at the general election in July (which means, incidentally, that he is in no position to say anything at all about the betrayal of the WASPI women), c) he indicated at one point that he was planning to vote Conservative at the general election, d) he urged his readers to vote for unionist parties in certain constituency seats in the 2021 Holyrood election, and e) the vast bulk of his blogging and social media output for many years has been about the trans issue, and not about independence or anything even vaguely related to it.  If it's going to be argued that Wings is pro-indy in spite of all that, it would have to be assumed there's some kind of grand plan on Mr Campbell's behalf to use his site to break through the barriers and pursue independence by a radical alternative route.  But now we have it from the horse's mouth - there is no plan.  He has no alternative ideas to offer.  He's given up on independence, and Wings is now nothing more than a trans issues / Justice for Salmond / Vote Labour site.

There was a cartoon on Wings at the time of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation which showed her at a junction in a path, with one sign pointing to "INDEPENDENCE" and another sign pointing to "OTHER STUFF".  She, naturally, was finding her feet drawn to the "OTHER STUFF" path.  Mr Campbell is now eagerly following her down that road.  Establishing the truth of what happened in the run-up to the Salmond trial is an important matter, but it has got nothing to do with independence and is not going to get us to independence.  If it becomes the all-consuming focus of a part of (or rather a former part of) the independence movement, something has gone very seriously awry somewhere.

As readers will probably appreciate, I'm considerably more ambivalent about the planned legal action on behalf of Alex Salmond than I was a year ago, because I've since been trampled all over by the Alba Party without a shred of due process and seen the same thing happen to other good independence supporters, and I know (at least to some extent) which specific individuals played a direct role in that.  It's become clear that certain people's high-minded talk about "justice" is only really about "justice for the powerful" or "justice for the famous" or "justice for people I'm related to", and is not at all about justice as a general principle that everyone can and should benefit from equally.  Nevertheless, if there was a conspiracy to jail Mr Salmond for political reasons, that's disgraceful and it's entirely appropriate to use the courts to bring the facts to light.  But that's something Mr Salmond's family and friends can and will pursue.  For the rest of us, our laser-like focus must remain on the goal of independence.  I know there was some concern among Alba members two or three weeks ago about an appeal from the party leadership for funding that didn't really make clear whether the funds would be used for Alba's political campaigning, or for the Salmond justice campaign.  The two concepts seem to be getting muddled up in a really quite dangerous way.

One of the many reasons I was hoping Kate Forbes would defeat Humza Yousaf in the 2023 SNP leadership election is that it would finally have moved the independence movement away from the Salmond v Sturgeon faultline.  John Swinney can't provide such a decisive break because everyone knows he's more associated with Sturgeon, but nevertheless there have been some encouraging signs - Swinney has distanced himself from the Greens and de-emphasised gender ideology in a way that Sturgeon would never have done, and he made an important healing gesture by attending the Salmond memorial service.  Let's not squander that progress by trying to perpetuate an internal Cold War within the Yes camp that is now well past its sell-by date.  We have a country to win, so let's get back to doing that.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

It's incoherent to stand in constituency seats while still telling voters to game the system for a supermajority

This is something that genuinely puzzles me, and I know it's a point that has also been made by Colette Walker of ISP.  If the Alba Party are planning to take the (unwise, in my view) step of intervening in constituency seats in 2026, that would imply that they've moved away from the 2021 messaging of "get a pro-indy majority by gaming the voting system", because the latter only works if you advise people to vote SNP in the constituencies.  As long-term readers know, I think gaming the system is a dead-end idea once you start to consider the myriad ways in which it can totally backfire, but nevertheless to the extent that it can even theoretically work, it 100% depends on convincing people to vote for two different parties on the two ballots.  There is no planet on which "both votes Alba" is a recipe for a supermajority.

And yet, once again, leading Alba figures are regularly pushing the "game the system for a supermajority" narrative.  There seems to be a distinct lack of joined-up thinking.

Angus MacNeil understandably has the zeal of a convert at the moment, and perhaps hasn't realised yet that all Alba members with a mind of their own, of which is he is now one, are merely "expellees in waiting". This is what he had to say today on the supermajority subject - 

"Look at that poll  for the 2026 election. 👇
What does 2nd vote SNP do ?

The answer is that it gives you Reform MSPs. Tory MSPs. And Labour MSPs.

2nd vote SNP helps anti independence parties. 
That will be the effect of 2nd vote SNP in 2026 as it was in 2021.
So Vote #Alba4Indy"

But does that logic actually make any sense?  Here are the seats projections for the Norstat poll from a prediction website -

Constituency seats:

SNP 58
Conservatives 7
Liberal Democrats 5
Labour 3

Regional list seats:

Labour 17
Reform UK 13
Conservatives 12
Greens 7
Liberal Democrats 6
SNP 1

The first thing you'd have to say about the above numbers is that they could be wildly misleading, because they're based on an enormous 16% SNP lead over Labour on the constituency ballot.  Many people think that scale of lead is highly implausible.  If the SNP aren't doing that well in the constituency seats, they stand to be compensated with far more list seats.

But even if you take the numbers at face value, the brutal truth is that they show that the wasted pro-indy votes on the list are both SNP and Alba votes.  The only pro-indy voters who are getting bang for their buck on the list are Green voters.  If you could move votes around like pieces on a chessboard (which in the real world you simply can't do) the obvious way to game the system would be to shift both the SNP's and Alba's list votes to the Greens, and then you'd have your supermajority.

In the Norstat poll Alba were on 5% of the list vote, but any serious analyst will tell you that Norstat regularly overstate Alba's support, which in truth is probably flatlining at 2% or 3% at most.  That means Alba would have to double or triple their current support to move into seat-winning territory.  That's not impossible, but the severe difficulty of the task contrasts with the fact that the Greens are already well into seat-winning territory, and that the SNP would win lots of list seats in the entirely plausible scenario that their constituency support drops back a bit.  So no matter which way you cut it, Alba is statistically not the most promising option for gaming the list vote.  Not even close.

Voters were totally unmoved by the supermajority pitch in 2021, and given that the case is even weaker this time, it's hard to see why Alba would suddenly start cutting through with it.  They'd be much better advised to try to win votes by the conventional method of persuading voters that they are a better party than the SNP and have better policies.  OK, I'm not sure the optimal way of doing that is with the current increasingly right-wing positioning of "it's not racist to take money away from asylum seekers / President-elect Donald Trump deserves greater respect from us / Elon Musk has saved the internet gonnae take me to Mars, hun / Andrew Doyle off GB News is just so goddamn fabulous is he not", but even that is probably preferable to the excruciating embarrassment of making your Party Election Broadcast a three-minute monologue on the d'Hondt formula.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Monday, December 16, 2024

My appeal against expulsion from the Alba Party will be heard in early January

Chris McEleny told me last week that the clerk of the Appeals Committee would be in touch "in due course" about the details of my appeal, and I did wonder when he said that whether the clerk of the Appeals Committee would turn out to be exactly the same person as the clerk of the Disciplinary Committee, who is also exactly the same person as Mr McEleny's own deputy as General Secretary.  The answer is yes.  It's like the Holy Trinity: they're three different roles and yet somehow all the same.  When I was growing up, my uncle, who had been in a Catholic brotherhood for a few years, explained the concept of the Holy Trinity to me and then asked whether I understood it.  I said that I did.  He said: "No you don't.  Nobody understands it.  If you think you've understood it, that means you haven't."  Which, to be fair, could also apply to just about every Kafkaesque twist and turn in the Alba Party's internal procedures.  

My appeal hearing will be on the evening of the 8th of January, which I think might be just about within the 30-day rule that I remember reading somewhere (I can't find it in the main text of the party constitution so it's probably in a separate set of rules governing the Appeals Committee itself).  I was hoping it was going to be a bit earlier than that, because this has been an incredibly stressful and downright nasty process and I want it over.  I'm not going to mince words anymore - it's been an utterly bogus, baseless, malicious, evidence-free "disciplinary" action brought by a vindictive leadership due simply to a personal vendetta against me, which they probably hold for three principal reasons: a) the persistent stand I took in favour of internal democratisation of the party, b) my refusal to meekly put up with low-grade bullying attempts from two very well-connected individuals at in-person meetings of the Constitution Review Group during the spring and subsequently on Twitter, and c) my calling out of blatantly false information provided by the General Secretary during meetings of the Disciplinary Committee at the start of this year (yes, ironically I was an elected member of the Disciplinary Committee until my expulsion).  

At least now the end is in sight - either the Appeals Committee will do the right thing and overturn the upholding of Mr McEleny's malicious action against me, and I can resume my party membership and return to pressing for change to try to ensure that this can never happen to anyone else again, or they will not do the right thing, my expulsion will become irrevocable, and I can finally draw a line under my hellish experience within Alba and look to the future, either in a different party, or as an independent or as a supporter of independents.  

It's likely that I'll have a great deal more to say in the coming weeks and months about the blatant and cynical abuse of power on the part of the General Secretary, and possibly the party chair, that has led to the malicious action against me and against so many other Alba members.  But for now I want to say a few general words about the bankruptcy of Alba's disciplinary process, which I've experienced from both sides.

The essence of the problem, I would suggest, is the hopeless lack of independence of the Disciplinary Committee.  This is an example of the Alba set-up actually being inferior to the SNP's, because on my reading of the SNP constitution the Conduct Committee in that party is genuinely independent of the NEC (at least on paper).  By contrast, Alba's Disciplinary Committee functions effectively as a subcommittee of the NEC.  Although there are six elected members, those are topped up by two NEC appointees (effectively people directly appointed by the party leader), of which one is nominated by the NEC to be the committee's convener.  OK, you might say, that still means the committee is three-quarters elected, but in practice the appointed convener controls the committee to a quite extraordinary degree.  Not only does he or she have the casting vote in the event of a tie, they also determine the format of meetings, can ensure the rights of 'defendants' are interpreted as narrowly as possible, and can prevent committee members from expressing 'undesirable' viewpoints or asking 'unwanted' questions.  So to a large extent, the Disciplinary Committee is under the NEC's direct control.

But even that level of control wasn't enough for the leadership, who at the start of this year (coinciding with my own election to the committee) introduced a set of draconian new rules which shifted power over the disciplinary process away from the Disciplinary Committee and firmly into the hands of the unelected General Secretary and to a lesser extent the unelected party chair.  A new "clerk to the committee" was imposed, who of course just happens to be the same person as the Deputy General Secretary, and who is now present throughout all meetings regardless of whether the committee wants her there or not.  She therefore becomes a brooding presence which is bound to inhibit the free expression of views - because it's an open secret that she'll be reporting back to her boss the General Secretary, to the party chair and probably to half a dozen other people besides.  In the first meeting I took part in, it became obvious that Mr McEleny had told us a direct lie in the paperwork - he had told us that the member who was the subject of the complaint had not expressed any wish to attend the hearing, whereas in fact I knew that wasn't true, because the member in question had contacted me to say that he did wish to attend but that Mr McEleny had ignored his emails.  During the meeting I said something along the lines of "it looks to me like the General Secretary has been playing games", which of course I knew full well that "the clerk to the committee" would report straight back to her boss.  That may well have been the moment when the seeds were first sown for Mr McEleny's vendetta against me.

But the much more important effect of the new rules is the total power they give to the General Secretary in determining what complaints reach the Disciplinary Committee.  Mr McEleny, despite being an entirely unelected party employee, has an absolute right to lodge a complaint against a party member himself and compel the Disciplinary Committee to hear it, but he also has an absolute right to reject any complaint submitted by anyone else and to prevent the committee from even considering it.  Let's be blunt - Mr McEleny has not only been making full use of that dictatorial power, he's been abusing it for all it's worth.  Every single complaint that was heard during my time on the committee could be very easily traced back to Mr McEleny's own vested interests, or the vested interests of the wider leadership group.  In at least two cases, it was ultimately about a wish to hush up the strong and probably well-founded suspicions that the 2023 internal elections were at least partly rigged.  By contrast, complaints submitted by ordinary party members with no connection to the party leadership seem to be of no interest whatever to Mr McEleny, and he routinely dismisses them out of hand.  Which is highly convenient when those complaints are about prominent figures in the party.

It's also worth noting that the right of the 'defendant' to be present at the hearing is largely a sham.  You might remember that my sense was that I had only been allowed to be present at the hearing about me for around seven or eight minutes.  I was later able to work out that it had actually been twelve minutes.  Assuming the hearing probably lasted for an hour or so, that means I was only actually there for 20% of it.  I have a fair idea of what was going on in my absence for the first half-hour of the meeting, and that was something I certainly should have been present for and been allowed to hear - but that would have involved me being made aware of what I was actually being accused of and being allowed to answer it.  And that would never have done, would it?

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

Sunday, December 15, 2024

An embarrassment of hitches: catastrophic leadership ratings for Starmer leave him trailing all of his opponents by light-years

I mentioned yesterday that there was a new (or new-ish) GB-wide poll from More In Common, and although it didn't show any further movement against Labour and in fact showed a minor dip in Reform UK support, it nevertheless served up yet more dreadful leadership ratings for Keir Starmer.

Net ratings (More In Common, 6th-10th December 2024):

Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -8
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -9
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -10
Keir Starmer (Labour): -35
Rachel Reeves (Labour): -35

The -10 rating for Farage is derived from 27% of the sample having a positive opinion of him and 38% having a negative opinion of him.  (I know those numbers don't quite tally up - the discrepancy is caused by rounding.)  That latter figure is hugely significant, because the equivalent figure in years gone by was often 60% or above.  If 62% of the British electorate are not actively hostile to him, there is no longer any ceiling on Reform support, or at least not one low enough to make it impossible for the party to win a general election.

On the head-to-head question about whether Starmer or Badenoch would be the better Prime Minister, Starmer still leads by a slender margin of 28% to 23%.  But that's nowhere near as big an advantage as it should be, given the general consensus that Badenoch is hapless, and the 49% of the sample who answered "neither of the above" should be of huge concern to both leaders.  With increasing evidence that British politics is now a three-way battle for power, I'm not sure how much longer More in Common can really justify excluding Farage from the head-to-head.  There'll probably end up being three questions - Starmer v Badenoch, Starmer v Farage, and Badenoch v Farage.

Incidentally, there are also approval ratings for the two largest parties, and they show the Tories on a dismal -28, with Labour on an even more dismal -35.  So, oddly, Badenoch is outperforming her party for now, although that's probably just because she's still relatively little-known and many people have yet to form an opinion of her.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

An under-appreciated side-effect of the Reform UK surge: it may put proportional representation for Westminster back on the agenda

Since the penny started to drop that Nigel Farage and Reform may be emerging as serious contenders for power at the next general election, I've been repeatedly making the point that this could potentially have the side-benefit of jolting the Scottish public into recognising the urgent need for independence.  But I've also been trying to think if there are any other more direct benefits.  It suddenly struck me that, amazing though it may seem, Reform do actually have one genuinely good policy, and it relates to something that I've supported for even longer than I've supported independence - namely proportional representation.  So, on paper at least, a Reform government ought to finally deliver a cherished dream of progressive politicians down the ages, going back to the likes of Jo Grimond, Roy Jenkins and Shirley Williams.

There is, of course, a snag.  Suppose the Reform bandwagon keeps rolling to such an extent that they get into the mid-to-high 30s and end up winning an outright majority.  Would they really stick to their policy on proportional representation, or would they (like PR-curious Prime Ministers such as Tony Blair before them) suddenly become born-again converts to the dubious virtues of first-past-the-post?  Forgive me for being cynical about NIGEL FARAGE of all people, but I think it would be the latter.  He probably wouldn't officially ditch the policy, but he would say there wasn't enough time for it because there are so many other more important things to be getting on with.

In truth, though, it's hard to imagine Reform going from single digits to an outright majority in one jump.  A more likely scenario for them 'winning' the general election might be something more like this, which is based on yesterday's Techne poll but with the numbers swapped around to put Reform ahead - 

Reform UK 27%
Conservatives 25%
Labour 22%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Greens 7%
SNP 3%

Let me make clear that I agree with everyone who says that Electoral Calculus is a dud projection model, but as it's the easiest one to find and use, here is what it says the above would translate into in terms of seats - 

Conservatives 179
Reform UK 176
Labour 164
Liberal Democrats 70
SNP 23
Greens 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Others 29

The only viable government in this scenario would involve some kind of deal between the Tories and Reform UK, probably a full coalition with Kemi Badenoch as Prime Minister.  But there would still be a very, very strong incentive for Reform to make proportional representation a condition of that deal.  They'd know it might make them kingmakers for decades to come, and would increase their chances of sometimes being the largest party and getting their leader installed as PM.  Unlike Nick Clegg in 2010, they might not back off from the demand, and they would have far more numerical leverage than he did anyway.

So it would be a straightforward choice for the Tories - buy themselves five years in government but at the cost of probably never being able to win an overall majority ever again, or do what Harold Wilson did in February 1974, ie. reject all overtures, form a minority government on a caretaker basis, and hope for the best in a snap election a few months later.  I'm really not sure the Tories would make the same choice as Wilson, because with the momentum that would be behind Reform by that stage, a deal might look necessary if the Tories are to survive as an electoral force.

There's also another point: if a major Reform UK breakthrough starts to look inevitable as the next election approaches, and if Labour's chances of winning a majority or remaining the largest party look slim to non-existent, would it not make sense for the Labour government to pre-empt the situation and introduce proportional representation themselves?  In many ways it would, but I still don't think they would do it.  Rational self-interest has its limits, as we've seen many times before.

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Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland.  It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support.  If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal.  My PayPal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk