I mentioned yesterday that there was a new (or new-ish) GB-wide poll from More In Common, and although it didn't show any further movement against Labour and in fact showed a minor dip in Reform UK support, it nevertheless served up yet more dreadful leadership ratings for Keir Starmer.
Net ratings (More In Common, 6th-10th December 2024):
Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -8
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -9
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -10
Keir Starmer (Labour): -35
Rachel Reeves (Labour): -35
The -10 rating for Farage is derived from 27% of the sample having a positive opinion of him and 38% having a negative opinion of him. (I know those numbers don't quite tally up - the discrepancy is caused by rounding.) That latter figure is hugely significant, because the equivalent figure in years gone by was often 60% or above. If 62% of the British electorate are not actively hostile to him, there is no longer any ceiling on Reform support, or at least not one low enough to make it impossible for the party to win a general election.
On the head-to-head question about whether Starmer or Badenoch would be the better Prime Minister, Starmer still leads by a slender margin of 28% to 23%. But that's nowhere near as big an advantage as it should be, given the general consensus that Badenoch is hapless, and the 49% of the sample who answered "neither of the above" should be of huge concern to both leaders. With increasing evidence that British politics is now a three-way battle for power, I'm not sure how much longer More in Common can really justify excluding Farage from the head-to-head. There'll probably end up being three questions - Starmer v Badenoch, Starmer v Farage, and Badenoch v Farage.
Incidentally, there are also approval ratings for the two largest parties, and they show the Tories on a dismal -28, with Labour on an even more dismal -35. So, oddly, Badenoch is outperforming her party for now, although that's probably just because she's still relatively little-known and many people have yet to form an opinion of her.
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He's floundering around like a one-eyed lesbian who can't speak French.
ReplyDeleteDerek at 12:43 am .... a strange comment to make.
DeleteNot as strange as your anonymous one. Are you a member of the rooflight community?
DeleteWhen there's that much dissatisfaction with the "major" party leaders, and also negative ratings for the others, perhaps anything can happen in UK politics. And perhaps anything can happen in Scottish politics - like an increase in support for Independence. On that note, about the Norstat poll:
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/atlVw
"Why independence poll won't trigger flurry of action within SNP"
A very thoughtful article I think, quite unusual for the author who became a journalist for a day! What the SNP need to consider though is that while with undecideds excluded, YES is at 54%, the SNP are still only at 37%. So they're still lagging though perhaps with a smaller gap.
But they do seem to have got away with the WFP, with the blame firmly fixed on Labour. Well done with that. And it does seem to me that the SNP vote may well rise if they stick to their guns. The Glen Sannox is currently on and off Fairlie Quay, getting ready for Arran, and they'd have to hope others will soon follow. Ferries have been a disaster, and even worse for the tourism has been the obsessive media negative reports. Give it a rest - tourism and retail need a boost.
What I said after the GE was the SNP should drop Indy for a while and concentrate on getting rid of the incompetence, left over from the Greens and the BHA, and turning it into competent government. Well, it seems that may be happening. I didn't mean them to be off Independence for long though - 3 or 4 months, 6 months tops.
But they do in fairness have until say, the beginning of 2026 as us lost totally pissed off and frustrated Indy voters may well jump back on board quickly when (not if) the SNP go helter skelter for Indy in the run up to the HE. I hope!
It's all to play for, and really what the SNP need is an overall majority in 2026 and in particular, not dependent on the economy flushing and money wasting Greens.
What happened to the real indyref2? A reasonable and reasoned post. Is this the spirit of Xmas at work.
DeleteMeanwhile, hope SGP doesn't mind but with Wings fundraising meaning he's keeping on going - perhaps sensing it might all be happening soon enough - I've already given a small £10 to SGP but my finances are skint till well into the new year, so perhaps some who haven't given to the SGP fundraiser could get into the Christmas spirit but in moderation (SlĂ inte), and give the rest to:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scot-goes-pop-fundraiser-2024
It's at 71%, maybe it can get to 110% before year end? And get more analysis and even maybe, another poll ...
... gwan gwan you know you want to.
Reeves and Starmer both have the same ridiculous wooden voice.
ReplyDeleteAnd they play with those ridiculous wooden voles that Sir Starmer's father carved out of an Ash tree that collapsed in their garden during a nasty storm in the 70s. Sir Starmer gave one of the carved voles when he made her Chancellor of the Exchequer but told her he wanted it back if she ever stabbed him in the back during a power struggle to become top dog. Reeves smiled like a primary school headmistress but whispered, 'in your dreams wide boy'.
DeleteI understand that this is all hilarious in your head, but you are coming across as a bit of a jimmy nae pals, or, to use a slightly ruder term, a wee fanny. Try getting out and talking to people and mixing in the real world.
DeleteAnon at 9.49: Actually you might want to expand your own circle of friends. What you think of as the real world sounds rather limiting and narrow. Probably full of people telling you "don't think this", "don't say that", and mocking you if you don't comform. Am I right?
DeleteGosh you were quick. Almost as if……..? My comment clearly struck a nerve. I’ll pass up on your offer of pearls of wisdom. If you can give an explanation for your silly thoughts I might come back on and read it. In your own time.
DeleteVienna next I presume?
DeleteAlmost as if...I could tell? Indeed. Others could too, they were just too polite to mention it to you.
DeleteYou do not appear to understand what “almost” means. Silly billy. But keep going. It’s good stuff.
DeleteI bet that sounded really good in your head. Or in your armpit.
DeleteAnonymous at 9:49 contributed with the ravings of the neighbourhood kook.
DeleteSuch a beautiful morning, my dear friends.
ReplyDeleteTPOTW ETC at 10:31 am -- it's very doubtful that you have any real friends.
DeleteHe might be Ratisbon. So he needs our sympathy and support. 55 year old virgin I suspect.
DeleteSurely you're not suggesting Tasmina's husband is a virgin? Where did all the children come from, then?
DeleteEnchanting to witness your return. Calming.
DeleteSo the National asks the former FM has she heard anything about the discredited branchform police investigation. This allows the Tory papers to jump in and have as their headlines.
ReplyDeleteI quite like the Sunday National as a paper but it’s daily cousin is a poor imitation and seems to have a death wish.
Anon at 10:39 am ..... it was the BBC who asked her first.
Deletemalcontent: a person who is dissatisfied and rebellious
ReplyDeleteThere are people in the indy movement using this in a derogatory sense, but I'm dissatisfied with the Union and I guess you could say rebellious, as I want to end the Union as soon as possible.
So, mmmm, I think I'll describe myself as a "malcontent" in future.
Power to the malcontents!
If African leaders had dire poll ratings such as Starmer then the usual suspects would be pushing for regime change.
ReplyDeleteIndeed. Few invasions start without a Find Out Now poll.
DeleteCall to arms and timely warning on WGD. The far right are taking over England and if (when) they get in, Indy and its followers will be literally outlawed. If you can’t hold your nose and vote in hope don’t come back on whinging when it happens.
ReplyDeleteWonder which Wee Dugger you are.
DeleteDon’t you know that EVERY election is the MOST IMPORTANT one ever? The number of times democracy must have died by now! The trouble with treating people like forgetful morons is they do in fact remember. All that DOING NOTHING politicians get furiously up to once their election has been won, aye, says more than words ever can.
I’m loathe to always make American parallels but seeing as they’re so well known, I’ll draw this one: if Trump is truly so existential a threat to American liberty and democracy, why’s he not in jail? Why did the liberal diddies waste years before they finally bothered with his prosecution, as half heartedly as our own case before the “Supreme Court”? If he really is the end of America, he’d already be banged up or buried in the ground. The fact he’s free and will be running the show again soon enough tells you their true opinion.
Actions speak. Words are just puffing.
Great point. The fact that Hitler ended up running the show instead of being banged up or buried in the ground clearly proves that he was not an existential threat to liberty and democracy.
Delete"If you can’t hold your nose and vote in hope don’t come back on whinging when it happens."
DeleteThat's NOT what he says.
Anon @ 1.27 pm ..... I reckon it was more that Adolf's followers would have bumped off anyone who tried to bang him up or bury him!
DeleteYesindyref2. Loud whoooshing noise? Thought so. Read posts more slowly and you might understand what they say. Goodness me.
DeleteParanoid Anon flagger at 4:33 PM
DeleteThe SNP tried the bogeyman tactic for the GE and LOST 39 MPs. Down to a rump of 9. If they did the same as you want, threaten YES again, they could LOSE half their MSPs as YESsers ignore threats. Suits you sir.
Only a de facto referendum will get many casting their votes.
Least we now know where the hold up is with Branchform: A spokesman for Police Scotland said: "On August 9 2024, we presented the findings of the investigation so far to the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service and we await their direction on what further action should be taken.
ReplyDeleteThe Crown Office and Obfuscator Fiscal.
Delete“You’d prefer we didn’t take you to court, boss? Right you are.”
It's funny if you look at any post about it on Facebook you'll see countless comments of: There's nothing to find, this is all just a big conspiracy to damage the SNP and independence!
DeleteWhereas the reality is that Police Scotland are simply waiting to be told what to do next. What Government controls policing and justice in Scotland again?
Words fail me. Well almost. If you don’t know what the investigation really is about and why “they” are doing it, there is no point in discussing this with you.
DeleteAnon at 12.57pm says:- " we NOW know " - that information has been out there since August. Who are the " we " you refer to? They need to pay more attention.
DeleteAnon at 4.37pm - the investigation is about the missing £600k ring fenced money. Surprised you don't know that.
Whereas the reality is that Police Scotland are simply waiting to be told what to do next. What Government controls policing and justice in Scotland again?
DeleteSo Sturgeon wanted to be arrested and Murrell to be charged? Admittedly that's a pretty clever way to throw everyone off the scent (except the brilliant anonymous commenters here)
There is a simple and easy way for Sturgeon/ Murrell/Beattie to bring this matter to an end. Just tell the polis where the missing £600k is. It's not the sum of money you would normally lose down the back of the sofa. At least one of them, if not all three must know where it is.
DeleteThe most important thing IMHO from the WGD article is this:
ReplyDelete" That’s why it is imperative for the SNP and the other pro-independence parties to ensure that independence supporters are strongly motivated to turn out and vote. The next Scottish elections must be a de facto referendum on independence and on Scottish control of Scotland’s vast renewable energy resources."
"de facto referendum"
Indeed.
Easier said than done. For the Duggers, “Both votes SNP or you’re Brits!” is as broad church as you’ll get.
DeleteBetter late (5 years) than never by Kavanagh. There was a much better chance of getting a yes majority vote in 2021 but Kavanagh just followed the SNP ( Sturgeon ) party line of both votes SNP and the gold standard sec 30 Indyref2 will be delivered. Kavanagh and his doggers played their part in calling anyone who diverged from following Sturgeon's fake plan a Unionist. Is he calling himself a Unionist now? Are the doggers calling Kavanagh a Unionist now?
DeleteThe once great leader ( aye right) Sturgeon is now trying to recall what she did well to put in her ( fake ) memoirs. Instead of delivering Indyref2 she is delivering a £300,000 payoff for herself from her book. Yet numpties still worship her. No wonder on line scamming is such a growing industry with all these numpties about.
You sound unhinged. If there is not a majority vote in favour of SNP in both list and constituency in 2026 Indy and its supporters, from whatever party, WILL be outlawed by the incoming right wing U K govt shortly after the next UK elections. They have literally told you this!! The pressure you and other “Indy supporters” bring on the SNP pre 2026 is another matter. To date it has been diddly squat. You do nothing on here. You are being warned. Set aside your hatred or embrace right wing English nationalism. Get on the case. Confront the SNP and your MSP or whinge on here. Your choice. And own the consequences. Fireinthebelly.
DeleteAnon at 4.49pm - I want you to vote SNP but you are unhinged. Some great tactics there anon. How many people do you convert to voting SNP by calling them unhinged. 🤡. A clown that's what you are.
DeleteIndeed he or she is, or a flag troll.
DeleteThe SNP should have a - voluntary - code of conduct for members posting on blogs, in articles or on whatever social media they use. With a huge link on the SNP website main page:
"VOLUNTARY CODE OF CONDUCT FOR SNP MEMBERS POSTING ONLINE"
It has to be voluntary or they'll lose even more members, but at least we could just put a link to the code of conduct and tell the rude ignorant whinging moronic stalkers where to go.
Ah, satire? No? And from the secret tag team. Clearly I have hit a nerve. Keep on posting and whinging to no purpose and to no avail. Meanwhile, Farage et al are heading your way. Enjoy.
DeleteYou were trying to stir up division between SGP and WGD, by misrepresenting what he said, and failed miserably. Now fuck off.
DeleteI’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you are just really stupid. The alternative is that you are a nasty divisive wee troll. Follow your own advice. They really don’t like it up em.
DeleteYour alter ego at 3.49 was certainly stoking up division, was he not? Oops. Away back to WOS. Your card is well and truly marked.
DeleteAnon at 6.29pm says:- " Your card is well and truly marked. " WOW scary stuff from the anonymous mafia hitman. Shaking in my boots.
DeleteThis isn’t the movies you silly boy. Stop being a drama queen. You have been exposed as a bit of a tube. Stop digging. The WGD message is clear. You can choose to take it on board or continue with your hate campaign against the SNP. The consequences have been laid out for you.
DeleteNothing about the divisive comments by your pal?
DeleteAnon at 6:27 PM
DeleteYou're twice right. Anon at 4:49 PM, 5:42 PM and several before (and after) is indeed a nasty divisive wee troll, but also thick as two short Dover House planks with it. Not one of Ian Murray's best plants. Doesn't even realise he's been rumbled big time.
"The consequences have been laid out for you."- WOW more scary stuff from coco the clown.
DeleteIFS at 5.02. You. Have never voted for Indy. Silly billy.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 6.34pm - and how exactly do you know that! You must be that clown anon again. Hey instead of posting as an anon make yourself stand out from the crowd. Post as "coco the clown".
DeleteYou have never voted SNP. Feel free to say otherwise. And maybe update your patter. It’s wearing a bit thin. Have you been barred from Weatherspoons yet?
DeleteAnon at 6:48 PM
DeleteYou really are illiterate with all the rest of your unredeeming "qualities". Feel free to fuck off.
Dont get me wrong Sue
DeleteStill not willing to deny that you have never voted SNP. Why is that? And thanks for confirming you’ve been barred from Wetherspoons. Clearly getting to you. It’s too easy but I’ll let you go now. You are dismissed.
DeleteAnon at 9.13pm - you really should post as coco the clown. You have never denied you are a clown.
DeleteIt probably escaped from Chris Cairns' cartoon.
DeleteI like Isabella despite what everyone says. She is no shoplifter.
Delete