This is something that genuinely puzzles me, and I know it's a point that has also been made by Colette Walker of ISP. If the Alba Party are planning to take the (unwise, in my view) step of intervening in constituency seats in 2026, that would imply that they've moved away from the 2021 messaging of "get a pro-indy majority by gaming the voting system", because the latter only works if you advise people to vote SNP in the constituencies. As long-term readers know, I think gaming the system is a dead-end idea once you start to consider the myriad ways in which it can totally backfire, but nevertheless to the extent that it can even theoretically work, it 100% depends on convincing people to vote for two different parties on the two ballots. There is no planet on which "both votes Alba" is a recipe for a supermajority.
And yet, once again, leading Alba figures are regularly pushing the "game the system for a supermajority" narrative. There seems to be a distinct lack of joined-up thinking.
Angus MacNeil understandably has the zeal of a convert at the moment, and perhaps hasn't realised yet that all Alba members with a mind of their own, of which is he is now one, are merely "expellees in waiting". This is what he had to say today on the supermajority subject -
"Look at that poll for the 2026 election. 👇
What does 2nd vote SNP do ?
The answer is that it gives you Reform MSPs. Tory MSPs. And Labour MSPs.
2nd vote SNP helps anti independence parties.
That will be the effect of 2nd vote SNP in 2026 as it was in 2021.
So Vote #Alba4Indy"
But does that logic actually make any sense? Here are the seats projections for the Norstat poll from a prediction website -
Constituency seats:
SNP 58
Conservatives 7
Liberal Democrats 5
Labour 3
Regional list seats:
Labour 17
Reform UK 13
Conservatives 12
Greens 7
Liberal Democrats 6
SNP 1
The first thing you'd have to say about the above numbers is that they could be wildly misleading, because they're based on an enormous 16% SNP lead over Labour on the constituency ballot. Many people think that scale of lead is highly implausible. If the SNP aren't doing that well in the constituency seats, they stand to be compensated with far more list seats.
But even if you take the numbers at face value, the brutal truth is that they show that the wasted pro-indy votes on the list are both SNP and Alba votes. The only pro-indy voters who are getting bang for their buck on the list are Green voters. If you could move votes around like pieces on a chessboard (which in the real world you simply can't do) the obvious way to game the system would be to shift both the SNP's and Alba's list votes to the Greens, and then you'd have your supermajority.
In the Norstat poll Alba were on 5% of the list vote, but any serious analyst will tell you that Norstat regularly overstate Alba's support, which in truth is probably flatlining at 2% or 3% at most. That means Alba would have to double or triple their current support to move into seat-winning territory. That's not impossible, but the severe difficulty of the task contrasts with the fact that the Greens are already well into seat-winning territory, and that the SNP would win lots of list seats in the entirely plausible scenario that their constituency support drops back a bit. So no matter which way you cut it, Alba is statistically not the most promising option for gaming the list vote. Not even close.
Voters were totally unmoved by the supermajority pitch in 2021, and given that the case is even weaker this time, it's hard to see why Alba would suddenly start cutting through with it. They'd be much better advised to try to win votes by the conventional method of persuading voters that they are a better party than the SNP and have better policies. OK, I'm not sure the optimal way of doing that is with the current increasingly right-wing positioning of "it's not racist to take money away from asylum seekers / President-elect Donald Trump deserves greater respect from us / Elon Musk has saved the internet gonnae take me to Mars, hun / Andrew Doyle off GB News is just so goddamn fabulous is he not", but even that is probably preferable to the excruciating embarrassment of making your Party Election Broadcast a three-minute monologue on the d'Hondt formula.
* * *
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If the polling between Labour and SNP is anywhere near close in the lead up to HR26 I'd expect the Greens to be pretty cagey about their position on the constitution.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that's true, but at the moment it looks like being an academic point anyway. Labour are in deep, deep trouble.
DeleteHopefully they’re still in deep deep trouble in the run up to the 2026 election, and not the SNP.
DeleteMy guess is that's how it will pan out. I know you're hinting at the effects of any legal charges, but when Alex Salmond was first charged, I was very surprised by how little effect it had on SNP support.
DeleteJames seems to think getting a SNP/Green government with more than 50% of the seats is a win! for Indy. We already have that and it is failure for Indy. Only ALBA seats can change that dynamic. If ALBA don't win any or not enough to have influence, then we will be many years older in 2031 having this same useless chat.
DeleteNorth Calder. Have you not been keeping up with what is happening? Alba are not fit to hold any seat at any level.
DeleteWaspi women may think Labour isn’t for them.
ReplyDeleteCeline Gottwald thanks that.
DeleteCeline speaks in tongues.
DeleteYawn. Get a life.
DeleteI think James that people are thinking too small assuming that 2026 is going to be fought in the same atmosphere as in previous years. You need to keep an eye on the amount of money coming north for the non indy parties and look out for where it's being directed. Labour wants what it considers its precious by historical right and even Reform UK has been enticing alleged indy supporters in some local communities already.
ReplyDeleteIf Alba are seriously going to act like a winning force, and who knows who they are going to have standing for them in 2026, they cannot depend on what people are already referring to as a nostalgia sympathy vote for Alec. People already have uncomfortable vibes about some of the 'Alec's death was probably hastened by fall out from the trial' and 'it's Sturgeon's fault' narratives. If that's how they're planning to win, a lot of Scots feel that's tasteless.
Riddoch in her podcast seems upset at the SNP allegedly showing reasonably well in this latest poll and is indicating the 'movement' has intentions to upset the Snp applecart and suggests (prompted by this poll result and contrary to her past stuff) that the SNP should butt out of the independence movement and that the system in now unfair if it shows favour to the SNP. She says that the movement should have the respect, profile and credibility a political party has and says she thinks 'we're going to find out'. She says she thinks it's unfair if the SNP gain more seats and that Yes if 'far ahead of the SNP in voting intentions'.
So whatever the plan is - and she says some SNP people as well as others support it - maybe there will be some new winning something or other - but gaming the system is as it always is. Nobody knows until the playing field of contenders is clear.
It's a pity the movement can't just this once hold its nose and vote en masse for the SNP and give Westminster a clearly defined easy to understand bloody nose. But that doesn't look like a possibility which is a pity, just this once. It would be a shocker and knock the unionists out of the park - but the want for that doesn't seem to be there. It seems to be settle for a few indy people from here and there within a devolved administration and continue to give the SNP a kicking. I'm not sure what that's likely to achieve in terms of galvanising the country to opt for independence. It just seems like more of the same to me and accommodating to Labour and sadly Reform UK who some indy bods are already mouthing they'll vote for to do the infamous 'give the SNP a kicking'. Maybe the Riddoch 'thing' will produce some miraculous wonders - who knows.
"People already have uncomfortable vibes about some of the 'Alec's death was probably hastened by fall out from the trial' and 'it's Sturgeon's fault' narratives. If that's how they're planning to win, a lot of Scots feel that's tasteless."
DeleteIf that's how they're planning to win, they'll fail, it's as simple as that. No party can function as a 'memorial stone' to one man.
Forgot to say - maybe the mystery candidates will be some business millionaires. Hopefully independence supporting of course. That might stir up some voters.
ReplyDelete2026 will see the SNP sweep the boards as folk realize you need a political party to manage a country and not petty protest parties
ReplyDeleteThe Greens Alba and all the rest could well disappear without barely a trace left
John Swinney without having to lift a finger will go down in history as a great FM because the British Labour party has done all the work to create their own demise
As you know, I have mixed feeling at best about the Greens, but they're not going to disappear. They're holding their own pretty well.
DeleteI always get rather frustrated about the debates around voting strategies for Holyrood elections, and would agree with James that in practice "tactical voting" does not work in a proportional system. Its not intended to. So vote for whichever party or parties are closest to your preferences and ignore all the people trying to convince you otherwise.
ReplyDeleteHowever the only proviso I would add, is that although there is no formal threshold , the fact the number of list seats is limited, means that in effect there is effectively a cutoff. As a very rough rule of thumb (it will vary depending on voting pattersn within each region), if a party is polling below 5%, then you are almost certainly wasting your vote.
And that means voting for anyone other than the SNP or Greens is a likely wasted vote (which you are perfectly entitled to do).
Your regular reminder that your vote is no more "wasted" if you vote for a party that gets 2% than if you vote for one that gets 40%. Unless you've actually changed the number of seats won, your vote has the exact same impact in either case
DeleteYou are entitled to waste your vote. That is entirely your perogative. But do not expect it to result in any MSPs if you vote for a party that is polling below around 5%.
DeleteThe only time SNP/Indy got an overall majority was when enough people voted SNP 1 and 2. We all know this is a matter of fact. But there is a problem. Their governance in the past 5 years has been woeful. What to do?
DeleteJohn Swinney has been quietly ditching most of the previous nonsense that the ScotGov were doing, the legacy of the disastrous BHA which made it easier for the SNP to pass wind instead of sensible legislation and policies.
ReplyDeleteLabour should be courted by the Indy movement and the SNP, as the wedge between Freeze Reeves and Liz "Truss" Kendal, and Scottish Labour becomes deeper and deeper.
https://archive.is/3COi8
"Scottish Labour MP 'appalled' as Waspi women to receive no compensation"
People constantly slagging off Labour should also be ready to extend the hand of friendship - Labour in Scotland are NOT the same as Labour in Westminster.
Sorry, that was in reply to Anon at 8:05 PM.
DeleteLabour in Scotland do as they are told by Labour in England. YI2 does have a rather strange view of the unionist party called Labour.
DeleteLuckily John Swinney, the FM of a minority government, leader of the SNP and in a way, the de facto leader of the Indy movement, who has said he'll work with any party, is way ahead of you.
DeleteLabour in Scotland is Labour in Westminster. They do as they're instructed and get paid for it. Where's the difference?
DeleteYes they are
DeleteYesindyref talks nonsense just to get himself talked about
DeleteCan you please try to be more supportive of ALBA?
ReplyDeleteNow that they've expelled me, you mean?! Well, it's a novel thought. I did check the rulebook, and my expulsion took effect immediately from the moment of the Disciplinary Committee's decision on the 5th. In theory that can be overturned on appeal, but as of this moment I am not a party member. So I have none of the rights of membership - but none of the responsibilities either.
DeleteAre you still paying subscription fees for the privilege of not being a member?
DeleteI really hope not.
That might continue to be the case until my appeal. I'm not happy about it, but I'll play along for a few more weeks. Obviously if my appeal isn't upheld I'll make sure they receive no more money from me.
DeleteThey really should refund you if the appeal fails from when you ceased to be a member.
DeleteMaybe worth a wee go in the small claims court if they don't.
I'm open to voting Alba but if the SNP are in trouble, I'll probably vote SNP.
ReplyDeleteFeel the first Alba election when SNP were surging was the chance. But a combination of some silly tweets and a thorough character assassination on the leader made that difficult.
I can't envisage, though, many in Alba falling in line behind a party who they believe is beyond the pale and not fussed about independence, however. And I wouldn't expect them to. Parties like Alba are in the position of the Greens before they won seats. They need to build their profile. And independence is almost certainly not going to be on the ballot paper so this is not nation defining. That sort of thing doesn't happen at every election.
Vote Alba vote in a unionist, that is the reality,
DeleteEvery election is nation defining for the next 4/5 years. Why vote for ALBA and failure?
ReplyDeleteDefinitely. Alba are a busted flush. Not a serious option for any voter.
DeleteEvery election is so called the most defining but in reality the stars need to align.
DeleteI agree with your opinion on this, James.
ReplyDeleteIt is completely non-sensical to to what Alba seem to want to do....so they will probably do it anyway.
'Scottish' Labour, as per today's WASPI disgrace and the previous WFP debacle, will simply offer empty platitudes, rustle their worry-beads....and then try to turn the entire thing on its head and somehow pass the buck/blame the SNP.
I reckon the vast majority of Scots now completely understand that, when push comes to shove, Sarwar & Co will ALWAYS back Starmer's idiocy.
I also think Labour will continue to lose support up here, as UK Labour keep bouncing from one PR/Policy disaster to the next.
They won't have enough time to recover, before 2026.
Swinney seems to have not only steadied the SNP Ship, but is beginning to steer it away from some contentious fringe issues and back to bread and butter stuff which actually resonates with voters.
As far as the 1&2 Indy Votes in 2026, the deep animosity from Alba to the Mainstream Indy Parties and vice-versa, I think will rule out any meaningful co-operation - UNLESS Attitudes change dramatically on all sides in the interim.
I am not overly hopeful about that, though.
Reform are a real worry.
They might well push a LOT of money and resources at the Central Belt and NE Scotland and suck in both Tory and Labour voters who see those Parties' popular support diminishing.
They could well become the Third Party at Holyrood and we already know they would not back/do deals with SNP.
Only way to nullify them is for the two Mainstream Indy Parties - SNP and Greens - to once again produce a majority Pro-Indy Holyrood and, barring a mutual agreement between those Parties to have an electoral pact in certain Seats (unlikely after the BHA bust-up) that will be achieved by simply voting for the Party you believe in, twice.
The greens are not an indy party. You should know that by now. The BHA was a disaster - it should never have been cobbled together. It made the greens look important, independence minded and credible - they were none of these. I'm not even sure they are a good environmental party, their policies on that are dreadful and ill-considered. The sooner the greens shrink to nothing the better it will be for us all. Getting rid of the BHA was Humza's finest moment.
DeleteAs long as Indy is in their manifesto they are an Indy Party.
DeleteAs opposed to unionist Parties who have manifestos which oppose/ignore it.
Greens ain't really my cup of tea either, but, as it stands, they are the only other credible, electable Pro-Indy Party capable of helping the SNP Vote over the line to a Pro-Indy Holyrood Majority - and their core-vote seems to be holding up pretty well.
David says:- " only way to nullify them is for the two mainstream Indy - SNP and Greens - to once again produce a majority Pro - Indy Holyrood. "
DeleteSo David kindly tells us what we all know that the supposed mainstream Indy parties have a majority and will have had a majority for FIVE years but have done nothing about gaining Scotland's freedom from Westminster rule despite all the many promises of a referendum. Anyone remember the no ifs no buts 19/10/23 date. Save the date they said. Then it was no we the SNP have changed our mind we will have a de facto referendum at the next UK GE. Then it was no we will just settle for getting rid of the Tories from Scotland. They failed at that as well but they did appoint an Independence Minister to the Scottish government. They then cancelled the Independence Minister.
You judge politicians and political parties by their actions not what they say or what they write in their manifestos or election leaflets. Labour have added to their lies by appointing another 30 cronies to the House of Lords. The same House of Lords they promised to reform. Labour lied to get votes. The SNP and Greens lied to get votes. Different lies but lies all the same. The SNP are just a slightly more left wing tartan bedecked version of Labour. If you are happy with that fine but don't pretend they will do anything about independence. The Green leadership are populated with a lot of bampots who would never get any votes if they didn't kid on they want independence.
Still waiting for someone to explain why another 5 years of this supposed Indy majority at Holyrood populated by the same people who lied in 2021 will suddenly not be lying this time.
As I said before a lot of people really really need to get that date of 19/10/23 tattooed on their hand to remind them of the reality of the current SNP leadership. That reality is that they are, like Yousaf, not at all bothered about independence. Devolutionists to the core.
All very well ifs, but what’s your plan to achieve independence?
DeleteIFS,
DeleteDo you want a Pro-Indy HR Majority and Govt, or not?
David, do you want a " Pro - Indy HR Majority and Govt" ?
DeleteI don't need to answer that question as I have posted on SGP since 2020 that I support Scottish independence. Similarly, I have answered anon at 12.16pm question many many many times.
I judge politicians and parties by their actions not their words. Naive people believed Labour would do all these things like support the WASPI women. Naive people still believe the SNP/Green leadership will do anything other than throw out some independence flavoured carrots every so often that may taste delicious at first then are subsequently found to be empty promises/lies.
Still waiting as per the second last paragraph in my post at 12.05pm.
Great stuff, IFS.
DeleteWe both want a Pro-Indy Majority and Govt at Holyrood.
Let's just concentrate on that and the best way to get it.
THAT is what really matters in the next 18 months or so.
David says:- " the best way to get it ". I have stated that many many many times as well on SGP since 2020. The SNP and all other parties that say they want independence need to walk the talk and declare 2026 a de facto referendum, come together and campaign on independence and nothing else. Then I will vote SNP or whoever stands for independence. I'm not voting for more bullshit.
DeleteWhat really matters is Scottish independence not keeping some politicians on the gravy train.
IFS. Same.
DeleteI'm not voting SNP for the sakes of the SNP. I'm voting SNP for Independence. But only if it's what they stand for, and mean it rather than just throw it in last minute along with your bunch of carrots. Or is that bananas!
I think there are 499,998 people who think the same. And are totally fed up with the SNP's sense of entitlement and use of blackmail - and taking us for granted.
Ach, there's always the ISP 😂
DeleteWhat a snooty little comment this is. Thanks for telling everyone you don't care. How illuminated we all are now.
ReplyDeleteThis character has taken over the blog, flooding it with childish insults and 'jokes' every day. It's pretty much unreadable these days.
DeleteYou're getting your wires crossed there, he's not referring to David Francis. I deleted a comment.
DeleteApologies. But it's interesting you knew who I meant was disrupting the blog.😉
DeleteFame at last, eh?
ReplyDeleteWhen some folk don't like what you say, you're deemed 'disruptive'.
When they like what you say, you can say whatever you want and never hear a cheep from those same folk.
T'was always thus.
Tough.
Grow up
DeleteDitto.
DeleteThis really isn't the kind of comment that we'd like to see on a blog such as this. Behave yourself.
DeleteIFS and IRF2 are the disrupters. Their toxic anti SNP narrative needs to be challenged constantly. That is what David is doing. If you want an echo chamber go to WOS.
DeleteI'll never trust the Greens again. Never. Now that Swinney and Forbes are starting to get the SNP back on track it's becoming clear how appalling the BHA was. By associating with an incompetent, lunatic fringe group the SNP lost all credibility and half a million voters.
ReplyDeletePart of me wishes the Greens would just drop the charade of being pro indy and court Labour with their toxic, juvenile politics.
Celine Gottwald said the very same thing to me three days ago.
DeleteI suppose it was inevitable that the betrayel by the Labour Party to the waspi women is being ignored by the Daily Record.
ReplyDeleteYes.
DeleteYeah......we have a very 'balanced' unbiased MSM in Scotland.
DeleteEveryone can see that..............
Talking of 'unbiased' media in Scotland - just heard the line-up of 'top stories' to be addressed on Radio Scotland's main afternoon show 'Lunchtime Live' today.
ReplyDeleteNot a single mention of the WASPI debacle which directly affects around 300,000 women up here.
Not one word.
Of course, if it was a ferry cancellation affecting 5000 islanders.................
It certainly has been a messy programme, that is for sure.
DeleteBut, unlike the HS2 debacle, the ferries will actually happen before 2026 Election and islanders will, belatedly, benefit from these new boats.
And, as has been highlighted frequently on another site, the overall performance of the ferry service provided by Calmac beats most other comparable services in the UK and even those further afield.
Perspective is sometimes helpful.
As for how islanders might vote, I have friends on Mull who will certainly continue to vote SNP.
In the 2021 HR Election, the Highlands and Islands Regional vote went very heavily to SNP who got over 40%, with the Tories in second place on 25%.
So, we shall see.
2 enters
Deletemakes a paragraph
tool
tool
Yes - insulting the islanders makes sense. The ferry to Arran will be sailing in January. The other is on the water and will provide a replacement.The high speed train between Berlin to Paris is running soon. About 500 miles. The high speed train from london to the “north and west” has been halted excepting a few miles to connect a London railway station. High speed train for Wales and Scotland is ignored by England despite us paying for their 0ver £100 billion disaster. Still the snp sorted out the Edinburgh train debacle and the new bridges over the Firth of Forth, M74 extension, Aberdeen bypass. Just think how much more we could do if we controlled all finances and resources. Just ask the waspi women.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous at 1156:
DeleteI remember your witless post on here a few weeks ago and here it is for readers to see.
"People should ne aloyd to bring there on TV's to hotels so they can watch there favourite programmes."
Ludicrous.
@12:27,
DeleteWhat on earth are you on about?
Anon at 12.27: I remember that too, it was a crazy comment. Who the f*** is going to lug a TV to a hotel?
DeletePolitical parties. I don't care much for them but they are a necessity.
ReplyDeleteHow is a party's objectives best described? Is it what is written on paper? Is it what the members want? Is it what the leadership want? No it is who has the power and that can be the leadership or the members or even a mixture of both.
In my opinion the SNP leadership has the power, not the members, and the fact that the vast majority of members may desperately want independence the leadership have the power and they don't want independence so the SNP is a devolutionist party. Until the membership change this situation that is how I will see the SNP.
The power in Alba also seems to reside with the leadership. As the Alba leadership have not demonstrated that they are devolutionists then I conclude they are are a party of Independence until they provide evidence to the contrary. My opinion about the SNP changed based on clear evidence and it will change about Alba or ISP if evidence presents itself.
Sadly independence people supporting the SNP are basing that support on a belief/faith system. Evidence will continue to undermine that faith as can be seen in the most extreme faith based approach on WGD where some of the faithful are becoming extremely restless.
dhondt was the original "GAMING" of the system - it is rigged at its heart; now if someone cheats you and you find a way to uncheat the cheat, is it cheating?
ReplyDeleteI like the system.
DeleteGives you local candidates and a parliament more or less as the people voted for.
People splitting the vote or "both votes" is their right.
Best system out there for me, unless they can come up with a way to have local in PR. Probably they can , haven't overly looked.
What on earth is "gaming" about d'Hondt? It's simply a formula that distributes seats in direct proportion to how people actually voted.
DeleteNew Party of Scotland is the for forward, but if you're a crackpot there always Reform !
ReplyDeleteLiberal Democrat’s tories and labour all had different views of the EC and then EU in the 70’s and 80’s. Now in 2024 their view is more anti eu as they know how some of the English electorate May vote. They ignore Scotland and give Nothern Ireland economic benefits of the eu. Next election vote for independence parties. Put Scotland first.
ReplyDeleteThe Greens are pro independence. Over the last few years it could be argued more so than the SNP or Alba.
ReplyDeleteJust because you come onto a forum and furiously type doesn't make it true they aren't.
Now you can disagree with their polices, fair enough but to claim they aren't pro indy is bonkers.
Independence is not a red line for the Greens. At best they are Indy when it suits their agenda. They would facilitate a unionist minority govt in Scotland if it gave them power and ministerial positions.
DeleteThere is no evidence they'd do that. You could just as easily day Alba MSPs would support a Tory Government. Both are just hotair.
DeleteAnon at 10.16. No evidence? They actually said they would.
DeleteThe Greens are pro-indy, as basically speaking their policies can only be implemented with Independence.
ReplyDeleteBut put them in Devolved Government in any way and they try to implement them anyway, at huge cost and knocked back as being reserved. They also got and get distracted by gender issues. Which has nothing to do with Independence.
That's the leaders though, some or many members of the Greens seem to be a bit fed up with them as well.
Alba got distracted by gender issues.
DeleteYes. Like IFS I don't like political parties, but unfortunately we can''t do without them.
DeleteI feel like I've been saying this about the Greens all along, we've never needed Alba as a list only party. Their policy has always been wedge issues, trans people were caught in the cross hairs. I just wish you'd seen this sooner
ReplyDeleteI don't see it now. That's not what I said, that's not what I believe. The Green stance on trans issues is extremist, and is strategically idiotic because it's an absolute block to them receiving votes from people who would otherwise be natural Green supporters. It's long past time the Greens got back to basics and dispensed with the identity politics fanaticism.
Delete