If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?
Yes 59%
No 41%
This is a potentially quite dangerous result, because it could lead people down a very deep rabbit hole. Believe in Scotland are arguing that it means promising a republic would instantly add five percentage points to Yes support, but it really, really doesn't mean that. Quick fixes of that sort generally aren't available, but if anything this particular suggestion of a quick fix would be highly likely to backfire and reduce Yes support.
So why has the poll produced such a misleading result? It's well known that hypothetical questions, asking "if condition A applied, how would you vote in response to question B?" do not produce reliable numbers. For example, in the run-up to the EU referendum, any number of polls purported to show that a Leave vote would result in big majority support for independence, but that didn't materialise when the event actually arose.
The reason is probably that respondents tend to focus on "condition A" much more than they do on the main meat of "question B". If you oppose Brexit, or if you hate the monarchy, your natural reaction will be to demonstrate how strongly you feel about the subject, ie. "yeah, I'd do anything to stop Brexit, even vote for independence!", but when the question actually comes up in the real world, you focus on how you feel about independence itself, and Brexit or the monarchy fades into the background. It may still affect your thinking but not to anything like the same degree.
The reason why tying a Yes vote to a republic would be unhelpful is that everyone knows that the UK will retain the monarchy. So republicans have nowhere else to go - even if the pro-independence campaign is explicitly monarchist, there's no reason why republicans wouldn't vote Yes, because it would leave them no worse off. By contrast, monarchist voters will always have an alternative if you push them too far - if the Yes campaign is overtly republican, that might just tip the balance and lead monarchists to vote No.
That said, the replacement of the former Queen with the less popular Charles may mean it's now safer for any future Yes campaign to adopt a position of neutrality on the monarchy, and say that the people will decide the issue later in a separate referendum. That may well be the most sensible course, and I suspect that's what would happen.
If there is any significance to the Believe in Scotland poll, it may be that it implies that the 54% Yes vote in the Sunday Times poll was not a fluke, because it's hard to see how you'd get to 59% support on the hypothetical question unless baseline Yes support was also very high.
* * *
Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the fifth most-read political blog in Scotland. It's only been possible due to your incredibly generous support. If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal. My PayPal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
I'm sure James's analysis is correct...shame though.
ReplyDeleteAlba by brath!
Alba gu brath. One dram too many..
DeleteYou have just described an example of what Rev Stu calls the buckaroo principle. (WoS 10/06/2018).
ReplyDeleteYou two agree on so much.
If you expect me to search for a six-year-old Wings post featuring the word "buckaroo", you can think again.
DeleteBuckaroo - It's basically just keep it nice and simple - Independence and just independence.
DeleteIt says you should not promote independence if you want independence but only if independence comes with qualifications e.g. independence but only if it comes with a king or independence but only if it comes with EU membership or in Campbells current focus independence but only if comes with no transpeople.
Or in SNP troll minds independence but only if it is delivered and controlled by the SNP when the SNP wants to get round to it.
A question James - With the most recent Scottish poll on the Royals (Savanta earlier this year, I believe) showing less than 50% across all age groups under 50, don't you believe that asking opinions on an Indy Scottish Republic is perfectly legit?
ReplyDeleteWill certainly be interesting to see if any other polls are now done in the same vein, perhaps also allied to EU Membership?
"less than 50% support......."
Delete"don't you believe that asking opinions on an Indy Scottish Republic is perfectly legit?"
DeleteWhy wouldn't I believe that? A more useful question would be: "If Scotland becomes independent, do you think it should retain the monarchy or introduce an elected Head of State?"
Fair enough, but I think more polls along the lines of the one in question will probably now be forthcoming and might well be useful for the Yes Movement in general.
DeleteNo, I totally disagree with that.
DeleteWe shall agree to differ, then.
DeleteI agree with DF.
DeleteI agree with JK.
DeleteI agree with SC.
DeleteI agree with PN.
DeleteI agree with RJQ.
DeleteSeasonal greetings to you all.
DeleteApologies for the typo. Fixed now.
DeleteDon't sweat it, Zulfs, so easily done.
DeleteMessage to the anon troll mafia character does that count as a
Delete" head shot" to David Fraser by James Kelly as well. On reflection don't bother answering - idiot.
If you want to maximise the yes vote you do NOT put up signs at the entrance to the yes tent saying " DO NOT ENTER IF ............."
DeleteYou can fill in the blank with all sort of stuff if you want to reduce the yes vote. SNP is miles away from the simple position of no signs outside the tent. They don't even want yes voters who won't vote SNP.
I truly fear you will never experience the art of gracious living. For some, such as my humble self, it is innate. Others, possibly your fine self, need to learn and imitate. Yet I fear the learning and imitation may be beyond your, doubtlessly numerous, skills.
DeleteIFS at 1.04. Very self reflective of you to sign off on your post. I see a very raw nerve was struck by my post. James and David agreed to disagree on their differing opinions. You lied and were called out.
DeleteAnon at 2.50am - you truly are an idiot. You clearly cannae understand the basic difference between stating an opinion then being happy to change it based on hearing new information. So no I didn't lie. Sure you ain't Slippery fingers David Francis. Either way anybody that says something is a head shot is somebody I have no desire to be associated with so get lost troll.
DeleteAnybody who seriously believes support for independence is at 54%, far less 59%, lives in cloud cookoo land.
ReplyDeleteSo why do scientifically conducted opinion polls keep showing that, KC?
DeleteThey don’t keep showing that James. You’re going by a couple of Norstat polls. The majority of polls before that put No ahead.
DeleteLet’s see what the next Survation and YouGov polls say. Should they put Yes ahead then I’d concede you have grounds for a little optimism. I don’t think that’s very likely though, but we shall see.
Let's be honest, KC, if the next twenty polls in a row show an enormous Yes majority, you'll still be wittering on about "Statista averages".
Delete😂🤣😆, etc, etc, etc.
I'm truly not too sure it isn't relatively high..
DeleteMost people, just about, i know support indy but are scunnered with the SNP and feel the fire has gone out of the movement and can't be bothered talking about it too much right now.
Quite a different thing entirely to not supporting it in a straight question.
🎯 Exactly this - people are scunnered with SNP, don’t rate Alba and are unaware of any of the other Indy parties. Labour promising much and delivering a kick in the teeth to all and sundry have added to total demoralisation and disillusionment with politics in general
DeleteAnon at 2.56pm - a spot on post. 10 years of Sturgeon's gang have taken us to this point.
DeleteThe union was a perfect thought from the mind of God himself. And because the British Empire created western civilisation, the UK is respected throughout the world for its fairness, justice and the rule of law. Scots, being allowed a faux second rate Anglo-ness, should be grateful to be rescued from the defects of the Scotch character, including tribalism, strong drink, crazed religion and sentimentality. No amount of hydrocarbons can compensate for the elevation the backward celtic nations have prospered from.
ReplyDelete- and once Farage gets rid of all the pakis, coons, wogs, and assorted mystery meat, the glory days will return. That was a mistake, all that. Should have taken the Hess peace deal, IMO, and avoided the rise of our ghastly cousins, the yanks, boorish, vulgar, hillbillies.
Imagine, a flaxen haired anglo on a white horse, revolver in hand, while a fierce, kilted Highlander, stabs the hottentots in the face.
Glory days.
Nigel has joined the chat
DeleteWe need more polls like this. I hope BiS commissions more on Scottish republicanism, refusal to take oaths and seats in the commons, radical land reform, etc. If only to put pressure on the reluctant SNP leadership. Stir it all up. Get people's blood on the boil. We need just as much heart as head on independence.
ReplyDeleteThe last thing we need is more obsessiveness about the frigging oath of allegiance. Nobody gives a monkey's about that in the real world.
DeleteBlood on the boil
DeleteIt's money, the economy, incomes, household costs that is what any independence campaign should be focussing on. It's that simple. Independence will make you a lot better off. So why do the SNP not do it. Salmond even didn't do it enough.
DeleteSturgeon focussed on social engineering.
Yousaf focused on hate speech and people being white and black and religion.
Swinney - too early to say but probably he will focus on being deadly boring and that will make the SNP trolls happy. The ship is being steadied while it is blockaded in a Britnat harbour. Great stuff the SNP trolls will cheer. Long live John the Redactor.
If the SNP really want to move the dial they need to clarify their policy on the Stone of Destiny
DeleteWell all of this cheer and hilarity and good YES polls has inspired me to get back to my long neglected Wordpress. Needs a lot of reformatting and we're not even in the EU any more, but in the meantime:
ReplyDeletehttps://yesindyref2.wordpress.com/the-rough-wooing-for-independence/
E&OE
But the leadership of ALBA is pro-royalty. Will attract Reform?
ReplyDeleteThere is now very little difference between ALBA and Farage.
DeleteMaybe they could merge and Alba could become Reform's branch office?
DeleteWould we notice much difference?
DeleteProbably not.
DeleteAlba like to attract political royalty. But Celine Gottwald is playing hard-to-get.
Delete9.40 You keep mentioning that ambiguous name but you do realise jigsaw identification can get you into trouble?
DeleteJames, you said:
ReplyDelete"In other words, the Believe in Scotland question was asked to a different sample of respondents."
Not according to BiS' own website:
"Believe in Scotland have always used Norstat as our polling provider and we had a poll of our own going at the same time with the same panel of respondents."
(seehttps://www.believeinscotland.org/new_poll_would_offering_an_independent_scottish_republic_increase_independence_support?)
Oh dear were getting to the nubs if the natter.
DeleteDuncanio: That's why I said it was ambiguous. "Panel" and "sample" are not synonymous, so it could be interpreted either way. But there are words elsewhere in the piece that give the impression more of a separate poll.
DeleteAnonymous @ 8.28AM:
DeleteIt might not be the "nubs [sic] if [sic] the natter [sic]" but it is an important distinction to note that the no caveats question that resulted in 54% YES and the condition question that from which the 59% YES outcome was derived were obtained from the same set of respondents rather than two different samples.
James, I take you point. It might be useful to get GM-K/BiS or even Norstat to confirm this one way or the other. It they are separate samples then conclusions that GM-K would, in my view, be questionable.
DeleteAs to the gist of your argument I agree with the points you make - linking two questions when they would be asked separately in reality - and at different times and sets of circumstances - would likely produce unreliable results.
Anonymous @ 8.58AM is me.
DeleteMagine calling yourself anonymous then creckting there grammer. What a pisher.
DeleteThere is this on that page:
Delete"Norstat Technical Note:
Client: Believe in Scotland
Agency: Norstat
Universe: 18+ resident in Scotland (16+ for Holyrood and Independence voting intention)
Methodology: Online (managed panel)
Sample size: 1,013
Fieldwork dates: 04 December (after the Scottish Budget) - 06 December 2024
Weighting: All the results were weighted by age, sex, 2024 Westminster election, 2014 independence referendum and country of birth."
which is identical to the Norstat Sunday Times note:
https://aws.norstat.no/uk-political-polling/ST%20Tables%20for%20publication%20v1%20101224.pdf
I seem to remember some pollsters have "add-on" questions for other clients to make it cheaper for all?
I have clarified below - it was exactly the same poll as the 54% - BiS piggybacked a number of questions on The Times’ poll. So the exact same respondents, with the exact same weighting, maybe only two or three minutes after they had given the 54% response.
DeleteThe first sentence of paragraph 2 of our announcement blog states that quite clearly.
@GMK
DeleteNo, sorry, it is a bit ambiguous. From that paragraph:
"Believe in Scotland have always used Norstat as our polling provider and we had a poll of our own going at the same time with the same panel of respondents."
"at the same time" could be a different subset of their registered panel, but the same survey dates. My understanding is that pollsters use respondents selected from their panel. There is therefore, doubt. All it needs is a few words to make it completely unambiguous. "Piggy-back" would be enough.
I read Gordon's article several times, and it was far from clear whether this was a separate poll or a bolt-on to the Sunday Times poll, although I formed the clear impression it was the former. My guess is that the ambiguous language was probably deliberate, because there might have been an (unwarranted) concern that using words like "piggy-back" would have diminished the status of the poll.
DeleteIndependence was the majority after we left the EU, wasn't it, for a period?
ReplyDeleteSince gone back to 50/50 if maybe slightly minority but there was a boost for Yes. Obviously you can't say why there was a boost for Yes but there was one.
It depends what you mean by "after we left the EU". If you mean 2020-21, then yes, but Covid was almost certainly the far bigger factor. If you mean immediately after the Leave vote in 2016, the boost then was extremely brief and limited. Two or three polls with a small Yes lead and then quickly back to normal.
DeleteYes but we didn't leave til 2020 was it? I can't actually remember.
DeleteI wouldn't claim to know for sure why indy was the majority, I agree it prob was covid response mainly, but I think there was a wider pro-eu, pro-competence, anti-boris all meshed to together which brought about a clear shift.
I agree making the monarch an issue is a bad idea and this poll doesn't show what some think.
I'm one of the few people, I think, who basically believes Yes 2014 had the right idea on currency, monarchy, social union. It won more over than it lost. Think it was just too early. Pensions needed work on the messaging, not the substance, but generally careful careful is in Scots dna and was the way forward.
The border is now going to be our main issue in any future referendum and frankly SNP have done nothing on it, which a is a shame. There should be a cross party, non-govt (to allay govt spending criticism) policy think tank tasked with producing a new case.
Anon @ 9:05
DeleteYou are correct.
There was a string of nineteen polls on a row in 2020/21 with YES above 50%, over a few months.
Longest run of consistent YES-Lead polls I can remember.
Primarily, that was due to Sturgeon's far superior public presentations on Covid.
Many folk South of the border tuned-in to her daily briefings, in preference to Johnson's mumbling, waffling nonsense.
Sturgeon was the most assured communicator in the UK at that point and was acknowledged as such, internationally.
It was generally the view that Scotgovt was performing much better than their counterparts during the pandemic and that view was mostly confirmed in the overall stats afterwards.
I think it's fair to say for a prolonged period the floor of yes support was higher after we left the EU than before it and there was a prolonged yes support up and until Sturgeon left, corruption charged and tents in gardens. GRA cherry on top. Supreme court verdict seemed to have a brief kick.
DeleteThey need to get the corruption cases resolved, by the way. It's becoming a scandal in itself that it's not been done one way or another. The Scottish people deserve to know what's been going on either way before we have another election.
"Yes but we didn't leave til 2020 was it?"
DeleteThe point I was making in the blogpost is that the pre-EU referendum hypothetical polls suggested a Leave vote should produce a sustained boost for Yes from June 2016 onwards. That didn't happen.
But we rarely see Yes down at 2012-2014 levels nowadays.
DeleteSo "something" must have happened to produce a general 3-4-5-10 % increase.
I can remember the days when getting 46% was a James Pringle tweet rather than a Ben Mcdougall post ..if you see what I mean.
I catch what you mean Jame, though. I'm not overly arguing, we haven't seen the anti brexit surge carry us over the line either way.
Anon 9.53
Delete"So support for independence rose." Yes, that's right. It did. Behind the name calling even you had to admit it. Calling it bs doesn't change the fact.
Where do you get off btw calling people disgusting? You must have a waning hole in your life to be writing all that before lunch. I pity people like you.
I take it anon@9:58 is a Sturgeon worshipper, like D Francis!
DeleteAnon Pillock @ 9:27
DeleteWatch yer blood pressure, pal.
What I said was 100% correct.
Whether an irrelevant wee Bojo-The-Clown-Fan driveller like you likes it, matters not one jot.
And......Don't forget to buy-in yer wee pack of Christmas Incontinence Pads - with the amount of shite you spout, you will need them.
Anon pillock @9:27 !!!!!!!
DeleteIt appears Francis has lost it! Calling himself a pillock!
What a clown!
Why are you calling yourself a pillok David? We had IFS signing off a post as “Idiot” earlier, and now this. Some rare moments of true self reflection it seems. Well done both of you and seasons greetings. Ho Ho Ho.
DeleteA wee error in time-quoting does not detract from the fact that the anon pillock @ 9:53, who I was addressing, remains a complete and utter pillock.
DeleteFascinating how this Anon Dross all seem to share the same, lonely, single neuron between them.
As dense as the densest Neutron Star (Google it, Dummies).
The attack Sturgeon crowd out again. They have more bile than I expected.
DeleteSturgeon during the COVID pandemic was immense compared to Johnson and all his parties at No 10.We watched embarrassed, as his advisors stood stony faced as Sunak and co encouraged large gatherings. Deaths in Scotland were less proportionally than in England and Wales.
As of 21 September 2021, the total of registered deaths mentioning COVID-19 up till 10 September was 160,374, comprising 146,380 deaths for England, 8,129 for Wales, 10,688 for Scotland and 3,306 for Northern Ireland. Many actions Scotland could have done were not possible as England dictated terms.
Anon at 11.03am - what a pitiful contribution anons like you make on SGP. You know fine well I did not sign off as an idiot and you know fine well David Francis was not calling himself a pillock. Your contributions would embarrass primary school age children.
DeleteAnon at 11.40am - I do not dispute the points you make about Sturgeon v Johnston. I am on record on SGP stating Johnson was an absolute walking Covid disaster. When comparing Sturgeon v Johnston, Johnston is a very very low bar.
DeleteUnfortunately, all you nicophants always experience a group amnesia when you forget to mention that her composed, informative and good presentation went out the window when she started using the briefings to exhibit her hate of Salmond and trashing the verdict of the jury without putting forward any more evidence. Using the Covid briefings to do this as a current FM was a disgrace, showed Sturgeon's true nature and was completely unacceptable to any decent person. The TV was wet with hateful bile.
To summarise, Sturgeon did better than Johnston but she tarnished her earlier good performances at Covid briefings by her totally inappropriate use of the briefings. This came after she quite rightly and regularly told journalists that the Covid briefings were for Covid matters only. She then broke her own word by smearing Salmond and the jury members - not once but on multiple daily briefings in long hateful rants. A dreadful image for a FM of Scotland to portray.
Nicophants don't like the factual truth.
KC at 12.50pm - all your posts are embarrassing. All your posts use a limited number of words in a small number of sentences just reshuffled with no facts/arguments to back up anything. You are just as bad as the SNP trolls on here.
DeleteAnon Pillock @ 12:50,
DeleteSturgeon's Superb - and widely praised all over the UK and also internationally - Covid Briefings, helped Scotland save many more lives than on other parts of these islands.
Don't take my word for it, take the word of the UK's National Statistician, Sir Iain Diamond, giving his Official Evidence to the UK Covid Inquiry;
'Scotland had better (lower) Mortality Rates than the rest of the UK from the pandemic, the UK Covid Inquiry was told.
In a written closing statement on behalf of Scottish ministers, previous evidence from the UK’s National Statistician Sir Iain Diamond was referenced to show the differences across four nations.
Diamond’s evidence showed that Scotland had a much lower Age-standardised Mortality Rates (ASMRs) than England, Wales and Northern Ireland, per 100,000 people.
ASMRs are a weighted average, where proportions are measured against the corresponding age group’s standard population size.
The written evidence set out to explain whether or not the current devolution set up, and the ability of Scottish ministers to make their own decisions, helped to save lives.
“This is a complex question, but we can begin to answer it by considering the Age-standardised Mortality Rates (ASMRs) for the four nations, across the period of the pandemic,” it reads.
Age-standardised Mortality Rates are a BETTER MEASURE of mortality than numbers of deaths, as they account for the population size and age structure and provide more reliable comparisons between groups or over time.
“When considering the outcome of the pandemic across the four nations, Sir Iain Diamond detailed that England had the highest Age-standardised Mortality Rates for deaths involving COVID-19 of the four nations, 145.0 per 100,000 people followed by Wales (144.6), Northern Ireland (130.7) and Scotland (124.9), between March 2020 and February 2022.'
IFS at 12:43 PM
DeleteWell said. There are out and out unionist "sneaks" trying to take advantage of arguments and push as many divisions in the Indy movement as they can. What a load of saddos they are! So they pretend to be for one and against another to try to deepen any wedges.
What they realise is that "robust debate" is GOOD for the chances of Independence and try to suppress it. Well, GTF and tell Ian Murray you failed, failed badly, failed miseraby, are life's little failures. Awww, nevermind.
Me, you, and David Francis, support Independence. In our very different ways. And ultimately that's all that matters.
Another hideous post from Francis @2:00pm, praising Sturgeon for her performance during Covid.
DeleteYou couldn’t make it up!!
What a gullible fool!
Anon at 2:29 PM
DeleteYesindyref2 - my way of supporting independence is evidence/information/fact based. I have no loyalty to any political party or politician but simply just to remove the oppressive control of Westminster. As I have stated many times idolising a politician is not for me. It gets in the way of seeing the truth.
DeleteWhat David Francis fails to acknowledge in his long nicophantic post at 2.00pm is the deaths in Scotland would have been a lot lower if Scotland was independent. Independence was Sturgeon's primary task she failed, correction, she never even tried. She trotted along to the Covid nations meetings like the good devolutionist she was and is. She could have closed the border when Covid infection rates were higher down south but again she didn't even try.
Don't know what you and David's ways are but pretty sure for David it involves worshipping SNP politicians.
You are very busy these days KC on SGP . House Jocks like you KC go mental at the thought of being separated even for a day from your English masters. Hope I don't give you a heart attack.
DeleteThe supermarket shelves were empty due to Brexit but House Jocks like you didnae say a word because you are just wannabe English and the English must always get what they vote for.
So IFS has no answer to my point@5:13.
DeleteSurprise surprise!
Anon at 7.26pm has to be the magician dynamo. He made his point disappear. Naw, surprise surprise KC the time waster has turned up again with his disappearing point. You have got to have something wrong with you to think this is smart or a normal way to spend your time. Are you doing time in Barlinnie for being a complete and utter plonker.
DeleteYougov has just 38% of Scots for a republic (p7) when even in 2014 45% voted Yes, so I agree this is a dangerous outlier poll for Yes supporters in Scotland
ReplyDeletehttps://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_RoyalFavourability_230831_W.pdf
People like D Francis are an embarrassment to Scotland.
ReplyDeleteDavid Francis seems to have been dragged down to the level of IFS and YTI2, and that’s a low level. Hopefully it’s a temporary glitch. Withdraw the offensive posts David. You are better than that. You do contribute to the blog, unlike the tag team above. Leave them in the gutter.
ReplyDeleteNot at all.
DeleteGetting down to their level is sometimes necessary - even if I do have wear specialsed subterranian equipment to do so.
Onwards and upwards........
If David wants to get to my level he can stop trolling as an anon, cut out the personal attacks and listen to the truth.
DeleteAnon at 11.08am - there is no tag team involving me. Why do you think Francis is " better than that ". Are you also in his SNP branch? Why is he so shy in revealing his branch?
IFS. You troll under a username. You tell lies. You were called out for it it as recently as yesterday. And you are frequently personally abusive. Stop doing that.
DeleteAnon at 1.33pm you stop trolling me and you won't get called out as a troll. People like you are stupid liars and hide as an anon so nobody can see your continuous trolling. Nobody called me out for lying. That was all in your stupid head. Your stupid head that seems to like " head shots " and other such violent terminology.
DeleteThis is better than Neighbours and Home and Away put together.
DeleteSo is a dose of shingles
DeleteIFS. It is there in black and white for all to see. Apologise, move forward, and stop trolling and being personally abusive and people might discuss issues with you.
DeleteIn your fevered imagination it is all there. Stop making shit up and I won't call you out as a troll. No way would I want to discuss anything with you. Sure you ain't slippery fingers David. A dose of shingles would be less painful that dealing with lowlifes like you.
DeleteDave, if you're going to use big words to show us how superior you are to the rest of us, learn to spell - it's subterranean.
DeleteSurely the tack to take is once we gain Independence the people will decide as to whether we have Presidency / Royalty/rìghrean? as Head of State. Second chamber ? MSP's elected as first chamber and list votes 2nd? Once independent we can decide. All the options being flown just now is to divide our vote.
ReplyDeleteI dont really agree with that.
DeleteScotland has a role to play in the downfall of house Saxe-Coburg-Gotha. If the events of the evening of 10th May 1941 on Eaglesham Moor were more widely known and more specifically better understood, the island of Great Britain & its offshore colonies would have been a Republic decades ago.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 12.51pm - if it is that important why not tell us right now right here?
DeleteI'm waiting to hear what the events on Eaglesham Moor were.
DeleteJosef Goebbels flew from Berlin to Scotland in 1941 to meet George VI and discuss ending the war. The talks went well and the two men spent the weekend playing croquet and fly fishing. However, a few weeks later Germany invaded the Soviet Union and the peace talks came to nothing
DeletePont - it was Rudolf Hess not Goebbels.
DeleteA few Sturgeon worshippers on here today.
ReplyDeleteIt never ceases to amaze me just how gullible some people are.
What about all the auld yins Sturgeon murdered in the old folks homes?
ReplyDelete- now quote mortality statistics.
The statistics quoted take in ALL Covid Deaths, pal.
DeleteTry harder.
Ta.
David Francisco won't be a proper boy until he masters paragraphs.
ReplyDeleteand that is how it is done. 2 [enters]
Question : is the sad Stonewall Noncing Party stooge being paid to go on a little read public forum and argue the "sky is red" (Sturgeon wuz brillyunt and right intae the independens) all day. I mean you can get 12.10 an hour with a wee council job. Talking shite for big money is one thing, doing it for free, is sad.
Indeed.
DeleteHe’s embarrassing himself the way he’s praising Sturgeon.
Anon Plonker at 2:23 -
DeleteAwww.
Triggered much, pal ?
James has got this wrong - firstly IT WAS EXACTLY THE SAME POLL AS THE 54% - BiS piggybacked a number of questions on The Times’ poll. So the exact same respondents, with the exact same weighting, maybe only two or three minutes after they had given the 54% response.
ReplyDeleteThe first sentence of paragraph 2 of our announcement blog states “Believe in Scotland have always used Norstat as our polling provider and we had a poll of our own going at the same time WITH THE SAME PANEL OF RESPONDENTS. ” (Not shouting just highlighting).
Secondly, we caveated our findings a lot more than the National Front page did and said things such as “Lots to discuss but one thing is for sure, we should begin those discussions now”. We also said “So now is the time to ask the question and open up a conversation about monarchy versus republicanism in an independent Scotland and to investigate what impact it might have on independence support”. We have ruled nothing out and in fact as people seem to think there should be a series of referendums on EU/NATO etc we suggest we might want one on becoming republic too.
So this is a surprisingly poor analysis of the news given James’ past track record. James you could have just called me have we not always got on well enough?
Steady on. You could have just said that about the piggy-back on your article to make it completely clear, rather than leaving the possibility that it was the same panel, but a different selection of them. The technical note was the same as the Sunday Times one, but it could have been a coincidental 1,013 - a pretty normal number for a normal distribution at 5% for a 3% MOE.
DeleteMeanwhile I used the YES support in the apparently Unionist parties to suggest on my blog a hearts and minds approach could woo them over to the YES side - clearly many of them do NOT support Westminster in the important day to day things.
THAT was enough to make me look again at my 7 year out of date wordpress - and THAT is thanks to your poll. Thank you.
Meanwhile, in the spirit of YES co-operation and GoodWill to all men women others and bloggers, perhaps you could push SGP's fundraiser as indeed, he does have an excellent track record. Since WOS which used to push other people's fundraisers is concentrating on other issues.
Deletehttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scot-goes-pop-fundraiser-2024
Bloomin' 'eck, Gordon, that's an absolutely ridiculous over-reaction. As Yesindyref2 pointed out, you could simply have made it clear that your question was a bolt-on to the Sunday Times poll, rather than use extremely ambiguous language that was open to misinterpretation. The word "panel" is not synonymous with the word "sample" - all Norstat polls use the same panel, but they do not all use the same sample. As for phoning you, I don't think I have your phone number, the only time I can remember speaking to you directly was when I took part in your virtual conference in late 2020. I had formed the impression you had quietly distanced yourself from me from spring 2021 onwards, not because of any personal antagonism but simply because you were hostile to the Alba project and were distancing yourselves from those associated with it.
DeleteWell, I wouldn't say "extremely ambiguous", but certainly ambiguous enough to someone like yourself who specialises in analysis of polls.
DeleteThere's many a slip twixt cup and lip.
Britnat exaggeration
ReplyDeleteLand o Dope and Tory @
Nope, not an exaggeration at all!
ReplyDeleteAnon @ 2:51,
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely!
And replace them with the Charlatans who tried to build HS2 and caused years of suffering to those communities along its now, non-existent, 'northward trajectory and with an OVERspend of £Tens of Billions, or the Charlatans who led us into an Illegal War, causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands, based on a 'Dossier of Lies.
Yep...........Much better idea.
Ok, pal.
ReplyDeleteWho would YOU repace them with as Scotgovt???
And make it realistic.
Ta much.
Unfortunate capitalisation .. “National Front”
ReplyDeleteLol.
ReplyDeleteYeah, sure.
The Yoonionist Govts elsewhere have been such rip-roaring successes, haven't they???
'Clearly'.
Get real, for heaven sake.
It’s Francis that needs to get real!
Deleteyeah and the aircraft carriers break down on their way to exercises, don't have enough aircraft, or catapults, and without frigates to provide missile defence ... incompetence puts money in the right peoples pockets, and the UK is most incompetent of all, a joke country dreaming of old glories
ReplyDeleteI think that realistically the chance of anyone bothering to hold a referendum on the monarchy in an independent Scotland is about the same as the Scottish government replacing the Council tax, or the Canadians having a referendum on their monarchy (ie, 'not interested - can't be bothered').
ReplyDeleteAnd tacking it on to a referendum on Scottish independence is a ludicrous fantasy and will never happen.
I think that even in the UK the majority of people probably don't know who the head of State is, or care.
ReplyDeleteIn these tight times for most and given that Charlie Boy and his hangers-on are now COSTING US more than £HALF A BILLION EVERY YEAR, I think more and more folk definitely are beginning to 'care'.
ReplyDelete