Let's have a look at the first GB-wide YouGov poll of general election year, if only because YouGov seem to structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly, thus giving us a little straw in the wind about where public opinion currently stands (albeit one with a huge margin of error).
GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 2nd-3rd January 2024):
Labour 46% (+3)
Conservatives 22% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-)
Reform UK 9% (-2)
Greens 7% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Scottish subsample: SNP 33%, Labour 33%, Conservatives 14%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Reform UK 4%, Greens 3%
It's hard to see how Labour lose from here at UK level. You can try moving support around on a fantasy chess board, and have the Reform UK support implode and return to the Tories, but that would only get Sunak's party into the low 30s. You could have Jeremy Corbyn set up a new left-wing party and take a few percentage points from Labour, but a) why would a splinter left-wing party prosper when a splinter right-wing party does not?, and b) my guess is that Corbyn won't form a party (as much as I'd like him to) because he won't want a divide with left-wing MPs who stay with Labour to have a chance of keeping their seats under first-past-the-post.
I remain intrigued and perhaps even grudgingly impressed by the polling success of Reform UK, which is happening in spite of what seemed to be their folly of throwing away the brand advantage of the Brexit Party name, and also in spite of no longer having a big name like Farage as leader. They do seem to have a genuine chance of replacing the Liberal Democrats as the third most popular party, which could blunt the psychological effect of the Lib Dems replacing the SNP as the third party in the Commons.
I was surprised to see a clip of Shona Craven suggesting rather breezily that the SNP are probably still likely to emerge from the election with some sort of majority, and I'm wondering if that reflects a mood music emanating from an SNP parliamentary group that is still in denial about the full extent of its plight. On level pegging with Labour in terms of the popular vote, as the subsample suggests, the SNP would lose on seats - and this is before a campaign that will be dominated by media coverage of the London parties and the Sunak v Starmer horserace.
Moderation policy: I've decided to experiment with switching pre-moderation off in the comments section of this blog to encourage more free-flowing debate. The quid pro quo, though, is that I henceforth reserve the right to delete (or possibly edit) any comment for absolutely any reason I see fit, and without explanation, so please only comment if you understand and accept that. Part of the reason I had to switch pre-moderation on in the first place was the sheer exhaustion of endlessly having to deal with people demanding explanations for their comments being deleted - so please note that any comments criticising or querying moderation decisions will generally be deleted without reply (and that applies no matter how many times you indignantly re-post them!).
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I am currently fundraising in the hope of running a new Scot Goes Pop opinion poll in the near future - details can be found HERE, and the fundraiser page itself is HERE.
There were only 6 SNP MPs in 2014 when Salmond managed to call an independence referendum. Now people are making out it is a disaster if they lose a few in the next UK GE. It will only be a disaster for the individual who loses a seat. Sturgeon on the other hand over her time as leader from 2015 had a range from 56 seats to a low of about 35 seats but always a majority of Scottish seats. Sturgeon did nothing on independence despite her many promises. Draw your own conclusion.
ReplyDeleteIf Reform splits the tories I can see the SNP gaining seats from the conservatives
ReplyDeleteI find it hard to believe that 4% of Scots would vote Reform but, if true, it will certainly help to undermine the Tory vote while returning no MPs of its own - so win win as far as I can see.
DeleteThat's not very high as the GB level is 10.
DeleteI wonder what the turnout will be at the next Westminster election.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous at 7:08, probably not very high in Scotland, as apparently a lot of independence supporters are going to stay at home. Unbelievable.
DeleteI think it is safe to say that those 'independence supporters (who) are going to stay at home' no longer see the SNP's priority being independence so they wont be voting for them.
Delete" On level pegging with Labour on the popular vote " - that well known expert on polls WGD numpty Scottish Skier says the reason for this is that Scottish voters are withdrawing from UK elections. I think he is referring to independence supporters when he says Scottish. Personally, I think it is probably because independence voters are withdrawing from this election and the SNP. Unlike the Skier I do not claim to be any expert on polls.
ReplyDeleteA reminder that Scotland is a colony and like all colonies democracy in the colony is designed to be an illusion. Scotland will always get and do what England wants until independence is taken back and only then true democracy will be realised. We are nowhere near this with current gang in charge of the SNP who won't even provide a voting opportunity never mind actually implement independence.
For those posters continually attacking other posters about their right to vote or not vote why don't they turn their attention to that horrible person Liz Lloyd, Sturgeon's Old Chief Of Staff and rumoured to be a very close friend of an ex Daily Record Editor. Lloyd has written in an article in the Guardian stating that she doesn't see a great problem in SNP voters voting Labour instead in the UK GE. That's your Sturgeon top adviser and pal for the last nine years. Nobody on SGP has stated people should Vote Labour. Instead of calling people on SGP unionists they have been right under your noses all this time - aye SNP numpties right enough.
ReplyDeleteLloyd and Dempsie were never very keen on indy in the first place. Didn't one of them describe herself as 'soft' on independence at the time of the referendum? What they were both keen on was being part of Nicola's inner circle with the rest of the woke careerists she surrounded herself with at Bute House. . It's advisers like this who helped Sturgeon drive the party bus over the cliff. (Hey, maybe that's why she had to 'borrow' the indyref2 money for a motorhome...I mean battlebus).😆
DeleteFelix - I wouldn't be surprised if Dempsey or Mrs Angus Robertson as she is now, still harbours dreams of being the First Lady of Bute house some day in the future.
DeleteLloyd - a modern day Rasputin to Sturgeon's Czar.
Felix @ 11.15 and IFS @ 11.09 ,Lets not overlook their possible parts in the Alex Salmond stitch up.
DeleteYes. I was trying to find a way round not saying too much about them in that regard. 😉
DeleteJames, are there any figures on how this poll translates to actual numbers of party MPs. It looks to me if it stays like this the forlorn hope of the SNP being able to do any deals with Labour never mind a section 30 has vanished. Personally even if it was a hung parliament I don't believe Starmer would do a sec 30 for a referendum.
ReplyDeleteLabour 27, SNP 19, Conservatives 6, Lib Dems 5.
DeleteObviously UK-wide Labour would have a landslide and could easily govern without deals.
Thanks for that James. 19 seats out of 57 - 13 more than Salmond had in 2014 out of 59. A big drop in SNP seats not just a few and certainly no SNP majority in Westminster of Scottish seats.
DeleteIFS at 10:44pm, made worse, of course, by people like you snubbing the SNP. Can’t you understand what you’re going to do to the prospects for independence? Waken up!
DeleteTartanTam - 😂😂😂😂😂 10 out of 10 for persistence. 0 out of 10 for clarity of thought. As I posted above Salmond had the indyref in 2014 with only 6 MPs. So Tam please explain what I am going to do to the prospects for independence. You probably won't, of course, because you and others just make assertions but never back them up with anything. So I'll just laugh at your nonsense unless you have a cogent argument - something that seems to be well beyond most SNP numpties. I'll also repeat once again if the SNP wanted independence they could have called a de facto Holyrood referendum anytime in the last couple of years and honoured their commitment to hold a referendum. Indeed they could do it now. It is the SNP who have been destroying the prospects for independence.
DeleteI'm wide awake to what the SNP is - a parasite on the independence movement. I won't lose any sleep if the SNP go down to 19 MPs. I just hope it is some of the worst troughers who get the boot.
I struggle to understand the mindset of some of the people posting comments on this site recently.
ReplyDeletePeople claiming to be independence supporters saying they’re going to abstain at the GE, vote Alba, spoil ballot papers, etc, just to prove a point to the SNP. I agree the SNP have let us down, but this is just nuts.
The guy TartanTam has been repeatedly trying to get the message across the damage splitting the nationalist vote will do ie handing seats to unionist parties. He talks complete sense but some don’t seem to get it, almost as if they’ve given up on independence.
The character “Independence for Scotland “ in particular comes across as an arrogant know all who listens to nobody and appears to like only the sound of his own voice.
It’s so desperately sad. How can we ever hope to achieve independence with people going on like this?
SNP will lose seats but gain the wake up call it needs. You are addicted to the Westminster lifestyle. This is an intervention. You’re coming home.
DeleteEven 56 seats there won us nothing. Game over, Pete.
Hey Anonymous at 9.04 where were you when the SNP policy of Both Votes SNP handed seats to unionists in Holyrood. Explain why it is so important to you now but not then.
DeleteI bet you struggle to understand a lot of things not just the mindset of some posters on here.
You ain't even a character - you are just anonymous unless you are that plonker Marshall Adair.
Your post is absolute mince. You say we have given up on independence but we are only "claiming" to be independence supporters . Can't be both can it ya numpty.
Explain how you can listen to my voice - ya numpty.
Expand on how the SNP have let us down because many numpties think Sturgeon is just great.
Would I rather be an arrogant know it all or a complete diddy like you - what do you think.
Strange how all these SNP supporters think that by calling me all manner of things this will motivate me to vote SNP.
DeleteHere we go again- 'Claiming to be independence supporters'. Pay people the respect of having a different opinion than you without this repeated nonsense that therefore they must be secret unionists. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong but you know nothing about them or their motivation and you do nothing to persuade others with your bigoted assumptions.
ReplyDeleteWin, lose or draw [so to speak] after the next election the SNP's attitude towards independence will remain the same: an aspiration, not a desire.
ReplyDeleteThen they would lose my Holyrood vote as well.
DeleteReduced to opposition in both parliaments? Ignored by your merry weather friends in the media? Are you sure you’re man enough, Humza?
Let’s test their nerve.
Off Topic - Mark Epstein claims that his brother Jeffrey Epstein told him he ditched Donald Trump as a friend when he realised he was a crook. Trump wasn't even acceptable as a friend to the sex trafficker and paedophile Epstein 😂😂😂. Wonder who killed Epstein in jail?
ReplyDeleteIn Westminster right now they are discussing the result of the general election to be used as a de facto referendum on the reversal of devolution leading to the dissolution of Holyrood
ReplyDeleteEvery vote not cast for the SNP is to be considered a vote against independence
Westminster has no interest in any other Scottish political party no matter what it says it supports
These are really depressing figures, the percentages are bad enough but James seat projection is just awful.
ReplyDeleteObviously if it turns out this bad, there has to be a change in leadership of the SNP, that’s clear. However a result like this will take years to get over, though a change of leader might result in something not as bad in 2026.
Nevertheless the independence cause will have suffered a big blow, imagine Starmer’s reaction when asked by Yousaf or whoever replaces him about a referendum? He’s going to fall over laughing.
In no way am I defending the SNP, I can’t pretend they’ve been great in recent years, but we still need to support them and avoid a result like this, which, don’t be in any doubt, would set independence back many years.
We need unity to have any chance.
TartanTam - " asked by Yousaf" - pathetic. Sturgeon/Blackford and all of them connned everybody for years saying that Westminster would cave in to the requests for a sec 30. Only numpties believed that but here we have you punting the same pathetic approach.
DeleteWhy do we still need to support the SNP. You keep making these assertions as if they are some sort of scientific proof.
" We need unity to have any chance" You seem to have been sleeping through the multiple olive branches from Salmond rejected by Sturgeon and now Yousaf. Turn your ire on the SNP ya numpty they are the ones who have created the division and continue to maintain the division.
IFS, For pity’s sake! You’re just not grasping my, and others, point.
DeleteIf enough people share your, quite frankly, ridiculous views, it’s going to end in disaster, not just at the GE, but the next Holyrood election as well. Get a grip man.
Exactly. One thing the SNP has done quite successfully is test the Section 30 Request concept with commendable scientific rigour:
DeleteSection 30 please, Mrs. May.
Now is not the time.
Section 30, pretty please.
No.
Hey Boris, uh, we just won another majority in Scotland. The people's democratic demand is for a Section 30.
NO!
Hi Rishi, I’m Humza. I’m new. Yeah, Nicola's not here any more. Anyway, guess I'd better get formalities out of the way: Section 30 plz, lol.
When you repeat the same experiment over and over, and the answer always comes back the same, congratulations: you have proved the hypothesis was FALSE. No, Westminster will not give us a Section 30. Thanks for testing that.
Independence for Scotland seems to be somebody who’s incapable of rational debate.
DeleteAnon at 1.01pm 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 so says an anonymous poster who has contributed what exactly - oh that's right the poster is anonymous - is that you Cosy slippers?
DeleteAnd this is your contribution to rational debate? The number of anonymous 'numpties' who attack IFS is pathetic. At least Tam is prepared to be identified by his comments. Perhaps it's all the work of one Super Numpty, given it mostly amounts to calling him a unionist and running away.
DeleteIt’s just you seem to be at loggerheads with just about everybody.
DeletePeople are making valid points, but you take issue with then, almost without exception.
Anonymous at 1.18pm care to tell me the valid points that you think I am wrong about and why I shouldn't take issue with them. Or are you just another anonymous numpty taking a cheap shot at me.
DeleteCan the people who comment here anonymously please get themselves a free Google account/email. Pick any username you want but at least let us know if we're talking to the same person or not
ReplyDeleteNot something I ever thought would happen but I agree with this post by WGD numpty DR Jim.
ReplyDeleteJimbo says: " If you have to ask those that own the law in another country to change a law in yours then there is no law, only pleading with dictators.
How can there be a Union of 4 countries when permission must be sought by three of them of one?
England's politicians and their media call England the UK, they name the union one country, they never distinguish the difference between countries until it serves the purpose of England.
No Scot that ever went abroad was mistaken for a Scot, every Scot is English until every Scot has to clarify that they're not.
Even Scottish unionists remind foreigners that they're not English, and yet they're happy to be ruled by them.
If dogs could talk maybe they'd ask humans not to pat their heads or make them sit on wet grass, they have no choice, because if they snarl or bite showing disapproval of their treatment they're put down by their owners.
How small a dog do Scots have to be until England is content with their pets behaviour? "
What Jimbo doesn't say:
1. The word colony. He is actually describing Scotland's status is that of a colony of England. Many people in Scotland are just plain scared to use the word colony and that illustrates how controlled they are.
2. Sadly the SNP have been turned into Toy poodles and the SNP numpties who support them are nothing but sausage dogs. Two of the smallest dogs. They play Westminster's game, jump to attention when their media shouts jump and love a pat on the head. Westminster feeds them through the short money, big salaries and big expenses but they are still small dogs.
How can Scots that go abroad be mistaken for English? We’re treated as British, which we are of course (for the time being at least).
DeleteBecause many (distant) foreigners do not know the difference.
DeleteI tried identifying myself to one a few years ago as "British", they didn't know what I meant. I had to refer to England, the island it is part of, and that I live in the northern part which is not England but Scotland.
It was all to much for them, and I'm sure they just thought that some of these "English" are weirder than others.
It is less of on issue when discussing with folks on the Continent, I've found they know the difference.
😂😂😂😂😂😂 At 5.34pm today Dr Jim has taken my advice and says:- " Scotland is not a partner in a union, it's a subservient colony owned by England." There you are Jimbo it really isnae that hard to use the word colony although throwing in the word subservient does seem a bit superfluous.
DeleteSo it looks like Jimbo reads SGP. Is Jimbo one of these nasty anonymous posters who keep sending nasty comments in my direction? Come on Jimbo be brave, post as Dr Jim and stop hiding. As an aside , Jimbo being the top nicophant will never ask himself why his great love Nicola never used the word colony. Too much cognitive dissonance for him to handle.
It won't be long before that WGD numpty yesindyref2 who has been nicknamed the Admiral because of his love of battleships and assorted weapons of destruction comes along to proof read the above quote to see if there is a typo.
No wonder you were put on the naughty step from other blogs Cubby, like Craig's, or expelled from Wings and Dug's. All you ever do is attack other commenters, even on other blogs when they don't actually post here.
DeleteAs a result more than half the postings are you, you numptie or about you, you numptie, or other unknown posters who you call the one word of Scots you learned in Dover House - numptie! Sadly it makes postings on the blog as useless as it was with WGC, though at least he was good for a laugh.
The blog should be renamed Cubby Goes Plop.
To Tartan tam and others, a lot of us only look at this through the independence prism, but sometimes it's their other vile policies that put people off voting SNP. And they have proposed a barrowload of them during the Sturgeon era and are continuing to do so. I voted for them for years even with their crap named person act, the hate crime bill, the unit pricing of alcohol and this gender stuff they still push. There comes a time when using your vote for a better society takes precedence over supporting a party that seems to have no idea of how to deliver the very thing you vote them in for but they have trucks filled with ideas of how to push pish policies. Everyone says they are our best vehicle for delivering independence - well it's a rusty old heap now, the lack of maintenance is showing, low power, backfiring and running out of fuel. Park them!
ReplyDeleteWe're going to need a long term plan for independence out of the hands of the present SNP - Green turd machine. Both parties seem to have forgotten that they are meant to be our representatives, delivering for us, not constantly telling us off for 'not thinking correctly', for 'having wrong hurtful ideas'. I can't see a way forward with this bunch. It might be better for us all to chuck it and join the Labour party and turn it into an independence party, in the same way as the SNP got filled with poor quality, odd, self-serving, self-seeking, nutters.
I despair of this party.
This with knobs on!👏👏👏
DeleteWT - another reason not to give the SNP a vote is their " pilot " with jury free trials for sexual crime. A vote for SNP will be taken as support for this as well. This is another disgrace from the SNP. Sorry to say your Labour Party idea won't work. There is no Scottish Labour Party only an English party with a few different badges.
DeleteDavid Duguid Tory MP from somewhere in Scotland currently defending the UK gov handling of the post office scandal.
That horrible woman Christine Jardine from the lib Dems also defending Edd Davey Lib Dem leader's role in the post office scandal.
Labour guy from Rutherglen, Shanks, rambled on about questions need to be asked re post office scandal.
Why are there so many shite politicians in this shitehouse of a UK. Don't vote for any of these shite Britnat politicians and for the sake of clarity that includes the SNP.
So let’s for arguments sake say we end up with the above outcome at the GE. The SNP end up with 19 seats and the nationalist share of the vote is below 40%. Where do we go from there? It’s a hell of a way back from that! Independence disappearing even further over the horizon I’d say.
DeleteTT: where do you think we go if they keep every seat they currently have? Indy’s still far, far away when no one we elect bothers their arse to get up and reach for it.
DeleteAgain, Salmond got us a referendum with 6 MPs and the party in the mid 20s in the polls. Would it happen again? Probably not as Westminster got a fright in 2014 but it does show the difference in priorities. We now have a horrible preachy SNP telling us what to think and how to be 'progressive'. Sturgeon steadfastly avoided indy rallies but show her a Pride rally and she couldn't get her rainbow flag out quick enough. I don't care if it's 'transphobic' I voted for independence not weirdos in dresses or drag Queens in schools
DeleteTartan Tam I agree with you that with the figures you give independence is way over the horizon - with the SNP that is. Here's some more figures 59 seats with 50pc of the votes - that's 2015 - who would have thought the best she could do with that was destroy the party and split the Yes movement putting independence on the back burner for what? A campervan? or 59 seats 36.9pc votes - that's 2017 or 59 seats with 45pc of the votes 2019 and here we are with sitting with a burnt out Allegro as our vehicle to independence.
DeleteI've been on the same wishful thinking road as you are just now, but look at them, do you think any of them are capable of coming up with a route out of the UK? They even ditched the defacto route - which if they resurrected at this election I would vote for them. That is in fact about the only reason I would vote for them for I don't agree with any of their policies. They are not even good at devolution, they keep not being able to take over responsibility for benefits from the DWP that's nearly a decade now - if they can't do that what chance have they got of getting us independence? I could name more. They are good at low cost, no impact, pie in the sky stuff, looks good tastes crap. And no offense to Humza - he isn't really the kind of guy to inspire a nation or a movement. It's like casting Nicholas Lyndhurst as William Wallace in Braveheart.
IFS - as for taking over the labour party it wasn't meant to be serious but even theoretically there's more chance of getting free of London by doing that. Look at Wales, the constitutional convention they are having just now including looking at the option of independence (I know they'll kick that out but at least they are including it - our one didn't) But, actually there's a whole raft of things that can be done when taking over a party, see what Sturgeon done. But as for Labour being English with badges I know that - however, I believe (James will know better than me) already over 30pc of Labour members support independence, they've got around 20,000 members it's no that big and most of us lean in that direction anyway as opposed to Sturgeon's madcap policies and her admiration of the likes of Henry Kissinger - I mean come on, big warning signs there.
And as for the labour stuff have a look at:
https://nation.cymru/news/welsh-labour-to-debate-further-devolution-from-uk-party/
WT - I kinda thought you weren't serious about the Labour Party thing but I like to cover all bases so on that front please note that the SNP got 56 out of 59 MPs in 2015. Aye Henry Kissinger and Hilary Clinton as heroes gave anyone a good clue as to her politics - neo liberal. Kissinger being responsible for killing millions of Asians in Vietnam and Cambodia. The same type of indiscriminate bombing we see in Gaza today.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI dont think the SNP have hit rock bottom in their voting numbers just yet as we still have a lot of baggage from the Sturgeon era, like missing £600k to Salmond's case, that could easily crash that 33%.
ReplyDeleteAdd to this that the polling numbers are no doubt built on the assumption that the SNP can do a full election spend but in their perilous financial state their inability to match Lab in spending will cost them even more votes.
I'll just repeat this again as it disnae seem to sink in to some numpties. If Sturgeon's gang really wanted independence they could have called a de facto Holyrood election at any time last year or the year before or indeed even now. I voted SNP for independence - they clearly have no intention of delivering it so why should they get my vote and claim my support for a whole raft of horrendous policies.
ReplyDeleteNumpties keep saying SNP is THE vehicle for independence. Sturgeon's gang have trashed it - it doesn't pass it's MOT - it doesn't need parked as WT said it needs sent to the scrapyard to be crushed. I used to hope SNP members could refurbish it but they voted for Yousaf and let Britnat Murray Foote be Chief Exec. SNP members have allowed this to happen - they should own it and stop blaming others for not wanting to vote for shit policies.
One of the benefits of Scottish independence is that we will be able to vote out politicians who want to implement shit policies. We have been stuck having to vote FOR shit policies to try to keep the hope that the SNP will do something about independence. 9 years of Sturgeon's gang should be long enough for most people to see that it is blackmail/a scam.
What I’m honestly looking forward to is *how* the SNP handles their electoral bloodbath this year. There’s two ways they could go: denial or waking up to the truth that their free London lunches are now over.
DeleteDenial is suicide. If they’re that thick: good riddance to them.
But if they pick the right path, if they get serious and walk the walk, if they get back on with the actual, practical push for independence, then I’ll gladly support them once again.
Can you just imagine it: Scots having an honest pro-Independence SNP to vote for again, like we did before 2014? That would solve our division and our problems. And all of it lies on the leadership of the SNP.
The ball’s in your court, Humza.
I hope Corbyn sets up a party to expose all Starmer's contradictions
ReplyDeleteThe war mongers in Westminster sabre rattling again. The world will soon be full of unmanned drones killing people. It's a daily occurrence in Palestine where they have got so used to the noise they don't even look up.
ReplyDeleteDrones from Iran to Yemen - bad. Drones from UK to Ukraine - good. War is peace and peace is war.
Schapps droning on about defending the rules base order ( except for Israel of course who get a free pass to do whatever they want ).
" To some the cost may seem steep." says the UK defence secretary Grant Schapps. Nae money for decent pensions/benefits or cost of energy but always money for weapons. " The enemies are gathering around us" says this plonker. I looked out my window - they must be hiding.
These people cannae stop a few boats crossing the English Channel but they want to take on the Russians, the Iranians, The Houthis in Yemen and Hamas.
20k British soldiers to take part in a NATO exercise in Europe.
Grant Schapps the Jewish defence secretary who just happens to be happy for the monster Netahanyu to keep murdering Palestinian children. Grant Schapps the Internet conman of many different aliases.
Spending £50 billion. The cost of being in the UK - part of the union dividend - thanks very much Sturgeon/Blackford/Swinney/Robertson/ Yousaf/Flynn and all of Sturgeon's gang.