I saw someone on Twitter earlier declare that "the Reform surge is a myth", in reaction to a More in Common poll showing a slight dip in Reform support. The snag was that the More in Common fieldwork was actually less recent than for the Find Out Now poll that had Reform in second place, ahead of the Tories. And now we have a new Techne poll, with slightly more recent fieldwork than Find Out Now, and which as far as I can see has Reform UK hitting all-time high levels of support with Techne. It's certainly the highest since the general election, and having had a look I can't see anything higher from before the election either.
Britain-wide voting intentions (Techne, 11th-12th December 2024):
Labour 27% (-)
Conservatives 25% (-)
Reform UK 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-1)
Greens 7% (-)
SNP 2% (-)
Given that we've seen polls from another firm showing Reform UK in a clear second place, it may seem strange that a poll putting them third can represent an all-time high. But all polling firms have their own 'house effects', and Techne has tended to be one of the less favourable firms for Reform UK. Until recently, every Techne poll since the election has had Reform in the teens. The last poll had them jumping to 21%, and now there's been a further slight increase to 22%.
This keeps open the possibility that one of the more Reform-friendly firms may show an outright lead for the party in the near future - and then we'd really start to see what the horrifying prospect of a Farage government does to support for independence in Scotland.
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SNP sheep will still go both votes SNP.
ReplyDeleteAnd they'll probably be right. A pro-independence majority will require both the SNP and Greens to win plenty of list seats. Alba certainly won't be winning any.
DeleteScotland can’t afford another pro-independence majority at the next Holyrood election.
DeleteWe can't afford not to have one, KC. The stakes are too high.
DeleteSadie, the steaks are high.
DeleteWouldn't the Greens need to actually care about independence for that to be a viable pro-indy majority? They seem rather willing to drop the issue in exchange for power.
DeleteSheep don’t have a vote in Scotland. Didn’t know they had one in England. Explains a lot. With Alba utterly discredited and the greens having no red line over Indy, SNP 1 and 2 is really the only vote for those wanting to keep out unionists from Scottish governance. Martin J. Won’t respond to anons.
Deletescotch lack the genetic brain power to make decisions and cannot use spreadsheets, because of this we need an eton homosexual in a feather cap to lead us
ReplyDeleteOoh Ethel don't turn into a Verdolian. You don't suit green coats. Especially under a navy blue sky. Your nits
DeleteMmm, interesting.
Deletehttps://micronations.wiki/wiki/Kingdom_of_Verdoleania
There was some guy did something similar in the UK - UDI and made himself king. A good few years ago. Can't think his name - or what happened.
Wonderful! http://verdoleania.weebly.com/ (connection not secure)
DeleteVery well put together. Can you do the same for Scotland please?
unionist, death cultist pederasts crossdressers, and fake nats should amalgamate to form the comprador elite satrap quisling uniparty; vote for the status change quo
ReplyDeletethings, can only get worse
Lay off the peev.
DeleteNice try, KC. Highly creative, but spotted and deleted.
ReplyDeleteI'm spooky
ReplyDeleteHow seriously do the voters of Scotland take Reform UK? Is it a protest vote? Do people see Farage as a joke? I just can't see them as a serious contender, which probably means I'm wrong. In my constituency they got 3,500 votes, and I had the guy pointed out to me; not someone I knew. Seemed quite normal all the same.
ReplyDeleteIn reply to the first posting, if people are going to vote SNP it has to be both votes SNP this time in 2026. Practically whatever happens I think the SNP will lose some constituency seats, but if the SNP get it right, it could be like 2011 where the SNP got 53 constituency seats and 16 regional ones for an overall majority.
But only if they motivate, well, the likes of me and my ilk, frankly. Currently I'm 50-50 whether to vote SNP or not bother at all. There's some serious bad attitudes in the SNP these days, and not all of them amongst the politicians! A careless intolerant arrogance that wasn't there before.
Martin: I would have left your post up if it hadn't been for one sentence - the one in which you implied that someone else's posts should be deleted. As I've made clear many times, we're not going to have running commentaries on my moderation decisions. Make your own point and leave it at that.
ReplyDelete