A free choice to make the 'right' decision?

Remember Sophie Bridger, the young Liberal Democrat candidate in the Inverclyde by-election who made the soon-to-be-MP for the constituency look about two feet tall in one of the TV debates? Well, I just happened to stumble across a blogpost of hers from a few weeks ago, on the subject of the Icelandic bans on strip clubs and the purchase of sex -

“'I guess the men of Iceland will just have to get used to the idea that women are not for sale.' It’s hard not to be won over by such emotive words from Guðrún Jónsdóttir of Stígamót, an Icelandic campaigning organisation against sex work. I would love to live in a country without strip clubs, lapdancing or prostitution...

Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that legislation of this nature is illiberal. Whose rights are being infringed by a cheap lapdance? Not the buyer – he’s paying for a service. If the lapdancer is providing that service willingly, and not being coerced into her work, then she’s not having her rights infringed either. There are sex workers who do it because they enjoy it – not because they are being coerced, or to pay for a drug habit. So why should we prevent them from doing their work?

It’s not that simple, of course. People are being forced into prostitution, through trafficking and addiction and that is not acceptable. But criminalising prostitution will just push it underground, putting already vulnerable sex workers in danger...

...Liberalism means letting people make their own decisions. All we can do is ensure that those who engage in sex work do it because they want to, not because they have to. I hope that one day, I will live in a society without prostitution – not because it is illegal, but because women have decided that they are not for sale."

I think the last point is naive and unrealistic - giving people a free choice, but ultimately expecting every last one of them to exercise that free choice in conformity with the values of just one section of society, is a contradiction in terms. Human beings are made differently from each other - and the fact that many people find prostitution incomprehensible or morally objectionable is neither here nor there to the minority of women and men who take the opposite view and make a free choice to become sex workers. By the same token, there are many other much more 'legitimate' jobs that, if we're honest, a lot of us would never dream of doing and wouldn't want members of our families to do - but the idea of wanting those jobs to literally cease to exist on the basis of those subjective feelings is silly.

However, I agree with the main thrust of Sophie's argument. The current Icelandic government is the first majority left-wing administration the country has seen in its history - and it's a great shame that such a welcome development has almost inevitably been accompanied by the customary pigheadedness of the Nordic left in relation to sex work, refusing to see the industry in its true complex form, and instead reducing everything in infantile fashion to 'male exploitation of women'.

UPDATE (12:50pm) : A final little flurry in the Total Politics Awards - this blog has been voted the 95th best political blog in the UK (having failed to make the top 300 last year), and I've been voted the 143rd best political blogger. Thanks again for all your support.

Stranger things are starting to begin

Perhaps this is the time of year that I always think this, but I'm beginning to seriously despair of the 2011 Eurovision crop. Of the songs I've heard from the national selections so far, a mere three have really reached out and grabbed me (although there may be some good ones I haven't caught up with yet), and of those, two failed to win the ticket to Düsseldorf. Admittedly there were special circumstances - a sympathy vote following the death of another song's original performer - that partly explain Jóhanna's failure in Iceland, but the overlooking of Nicki Ponte's I Don't Wanna Dance in this evening's Greek final is utterly beyond me.

The one gem that has made it through comes from that unlikeliest of sources - the hosts Germany. Much as I never found Lena Meyer-Landrut half as irritating last year as some people seemed to, I was still slightly dubious about the wisdom of allowing her to 'defend her title'. However, with a brave choice of song that once again suits her quirkiness down to the ground, it looks like it might just pay off - at least to some extent. Taken By a Stranger is probably a bit too low-key to win outright, but the way things are going it may well deserve to.

One thing that occurred to me when I was listening to it the first time round was that, just like Satellite, the lyrics seemed a bit too offbeat and intricate to have been written by a non-native speaker of English. Sure enough, they appear to have been penned by an American. That's surely one of the biggest downsides of the scrapping of the language restrictions twelve years ago - now that Germany have established it can be an advantage, we'll probably see more and more songwriters from English-speaking countries being drafted in, narrowing the contest's 'gene pool' considerably.

On a Nótt like this...

I just had a little frisson of excitement (OK, I'm easily pleased) when I spotted on Esctoday that Jóhanna Guðrún Jónsdóttir - singer of my all-time favourite Eurovision entry - participated in the semi-final stage of the Icelandic national selection last night. That rang a bell from somewhere - I must have read the news of her return a while back but forgot all about it. Anyway, having had a quick listen to the new song Nótt, while it inevitably doesn't scale the heights of Is It True?, it's probably the best of the handful of prospective entries I've got round to checking out so far this year. Refreshingly, it's sung in Icelandic, although reading between the lines of Jóhanna's interview, there's probably a less-than-even chance it'll stay that way if it makes it through to Eurovision.

It's also worth bearing in mind that Iceland have foolishly discarded some real gems in their national selections in the past (not least in 2006), but this one is over the first hurdle at least.

A Cinderella Eurovision

What is it about Albania and the Eurovision? Every December they unveil their entry for the following year's contest far earlier than other countries, and with few exceptions it usually sounds pretty ropey. But at some point between then and May, magic dust is sprinkled, the fairy godmother waves her wand, and it transpires that the Cinderella of the Balkans shall be going to the ball after all. You hear their entry again, and it's hard to believe it's the exact same song as the disaster area you first encountered before Christmas.

But Albania wasn't alone in exhibiting a Cinderella effect in last night's first semi-final - which is just as well, as on the basis of the national selections this had been shaping up to be one of the lowest-quality contests in a good few years. If Thursday's semi follows a similar pattern, it looks like it might just be all right on the night come Saturday. In particular, Norway are doing themselves proud as hosts - pulling off the ingenious masterstroke of using presenters who look like they might actually have hosted television programmes once or twice before.

As for the results, I'm pleased that my prediction for the ten qualifiers was almost spot-on - the one blemish was that I had Finland pencilled in instead of Moldova. I'm particularly delighted to have been right about Portugal, as I feared my heart might have been ruling my head on that one. My biggest disappointments were seeing Slovakia and Malta fail to progress - I hadn't rated Malta previously, but it was a strong performance on the night. It's slightly galling to see Russia (as usual) go through in the place of those superior entries, but I'm not remotely surprised - 50% jury voting was never going to make more than a small dent in the traditional political voting from Estonia, Latvia, Moldova and Belarus.

Performance of the night - Iceland, by a country mile. I'm beginning to toy with the possibility they might just have a chance of winning - but then I have a feeling I probably did the same with the song's alter ego two years ago (ultimately it finished well down the leaderboard in the final).

Eurovision 2010 prediction : Tuesday's semi-final

Well, what with all the excitement of the general election (for 'excitement' read 'unremitting gloom') I've shamefully neglected the Eurovision season this year. But I couldn't let the contest go by without at least pitting my wits against other bloggers in the prediction stakes. At this stage two years ago, I correctly predicted all ten qualifiers from the first semi-final (I may possibly have mentioned this once or twice before). Not so hot last year, but seven out of ten was respectable enough. Let's see how I get on this time - in no particular order, these are the ten countries I think will make it through tonight...

Bosnia-Herzegovina
Russia
Portugal
Finland
Iceland
Greece
Belgium
Albania
Serbia
Belarus

I wouldn't have given Finland a prayer when I first heard the song, but I'm guessing the vibrant visual performance and the song's distinctiveness might well be enough. Iceland deserves to fall flat on its face after entering a near carbon-copy of their 2008 effort This Is My Life, but of course almost by definition it has a similar appeal to that song, so I suspect we'll be seeing it again on Saturday night.

As for me - well, for a third year in a row, my heart seems to be with Portugal. I've never even been to Portugal...

70s-style volcanic ash militancy must be smashed NOW

BA has now cancelled all its short-haul flights on Sunday. What's going on? Have a few specks of dust really been enough to turn Willie Walsh - fearless defender of the decent, hard-working air travellers of this country - into a prize WUSS? Forget about namby-pamby negotiations and compromise, Willie - the only language these volcanic ash fragments respond to is strength. It's high time they were made to understand that if they don't call off their disgraceful secondary picket across the skies of Britain immediately, their generous package of perks will be irrevocably withdrawn.

In fact, I strongly recommend that Willie flies into the volcanic plume without delay to deliver that uncompromising message personally.

My prediction for first Eurovision semi-final (Tuesday)

Before I begin, I'll just modestly point out that I correctly predicted all ten of the qualifiers at this stage last year (and I'll conveniently gloss over my prediction for the second semi!). Anyway, in no particular order, here are the ten countries I think will qualify for the final tonight -

Turkey
Switzerland
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Andorra
Romania
Malta
Armenia
Iceland
Portugal
Belarus

As with last year, I'm basing this partly on my opinion of the songs, partly on what I've seen of the rehearsals via YouTube, and partly on the familiar political voting patterns (although of course the fact that the juries choose one qualifier complicates matters). I have to admit there may be a danger of my heart ruling my head here - as regular readers will know Iceland and Andorra are my two favourite songs in the contest by miles, and I've also got something of a soft spot for Portugal. I think I'm on fairly safe ground with Portugal and also with Iceland (whatever Keith Mills might think) but Andorra is a borderline call after their particularly ropey first rehearsal. Things have improved somewhat since then, but not enough for me to be fully confident. If they fail to make it, I think Israel might be the next most likely qualifier.

And you might be wondering - which will I be plumping for in the public vote, Iceland or Andorra? Answer (bizarrely) - neither! As I mentioned last year, I have my own long-standing personal rule that I only vote for songs sung entirely in a language other than English, so I just choose the best one that fits into that category. In this case (barring a revelation in the live performances) that will be Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Eurovision preview part 3 - Iceland

Jóhanna Guðrún Jónsdóttir
Is it true

"Falling out of a perfect dream
Coming out of the blue
Is it true? Is it true?
Is it over?
Did I throw it away?"

Anguish about the collapse of the Icelandic banking system cunningly disguised as a love song.

Having listened to this some more, I'll have to slightly revise what I said previously - it's now my firm favourite of the songs selected so far (not that I've remotely gone off Andorra, you understand). It's not desperately original, and at first it sounds pleasant but unspectacular, but it's one of those songs that really gets under your skin after a second or third listen. Can it win? Songs as gentle as this don't have a fantastic track record of winning outright - in the last twenty years I think the only ones have been Rock'n'Roll Kids and Fly on the Wings of Love (both of which had more of an obvious gimmick than this song), and In Your Eyes (which had a bigger, almost screechy finish). So I wouldn't bet my house on it, but if there's any justice in the world there might just be celebrations rather than economic riots on the streets of Reykjavik in May.

1905, Nordic style

Interesting to read that the economic calamity in Iceland has caused something to happen that hasn't happened in the UK since 1905 (and if it ever did happen again would certainly be considered a constitutional outrage) - the head of state has pre-empted the electorate and replaced a bitterly unpopular government with a new left-of-centre interim administration, even though it does not command a natural majority in parliament. You can see from this table that the Alliance and Left-Green coalition partners between them have only 27 seats out of 63 in the Althing.

Even more intriguing, the new coalition partners are split on the most fundamental issue - the Alliance want to join both the EU and the euro, while the Left-Greens want nothing to do with Brussels, and are instead touting a currency union with Norway. Something will have to give, because it certainly appears the status quo is not an option...

Prediction for second Eurovision semi-final (Thursday)

I probably should quit while I'm ahead on the prediction front, but here goes nothing (as my Mum would say). In no particular order, here are the ten countries I think will qualify for the final tomorrow night -

Malta
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Sweden
Hungary
Portugal
Belarus
Iceland
Macedonia (or FYROM if you're Greek)
Turkey

The first thing that may leap out at you is that I've omitted one of the frontrunners for the Eurovision crown this year, in the shape of Switzerland. It's strange to find myself doing that, because I think it's a fantastic song, but it seems to have been completely drained of its dynamism in the two rehearsals I've seen. I'm still a little unsure about its prospects, however, because I haven't seen today's dress rehearsal, and frustratingly the reports of how Paolo got on are somewhat contradictory. Belarus probably wouldn't feature in my list on the merit of the song alone, but it's there because a) the choreography and visual impact of the performance is superb, and b) even with the new rules Belarus will still have one or two natural allies to boost its points tally.

The other point of uncertainty is what you might call the Kate Ryan factor - how many times have we seen a western European country with a superb song, well performed, yet inexplicably failing to qualify? It's not too difficult to imagine that scenario playing out again for, say, Iceland or Malta - especially since the Maltese entry is penned by the same Borg/Vella combination that came a cropper with Olivia Lewis last year. However, my instinct is that both countries will sneak through - perhaps assisted by the new jury vote.

And who will I be voting for? Call me peculiar, but it's definitely Albania for me. As I mentioned the other night, I only vote for songs performed exclusively in a language other than English, but even if I didn't follow that rule I'd do the same thing anyway. It's incredible to think it was way back at Christmas that I first had the chance to fall in love with Olta Boka's beautiful song. I've tried not to let my personal regard for it cloud my judgement in terms of its prospects tomorrow, but if there's any justice at all in this world...

My issues with this year's Eurovision contestants - no. 4

Regína Ósk of Iceland

"This is my life"

Life, perhaps, but not quite as we as know it. How else do we explain why a woman now looks like this...

...when just two short years ago she looked rather more like this?

Now try and tell me that's the same person. You can't, can you? It seems to me there is only one satisfactory explanation - that, horrified by her 2006 look, she decided to use up one of her twelve regenerations. On last week's episode of Doctor Who, Catherine Tate posed the obvious question "what do you call a Time Lord who's a girl?" Answer : a caterwauling Icelandic Eurovision megastar, that's what.