Well, if I had any sense I would hang up my Eurovision prediction shoes at this point, but I don't think I'll be the only person feeling that way tonight! Although few anticipated Italy's runner-up spot, with the benefit of hindsight it's not hard to understand how it happened, because stylistically the song stood out an absolute mile. But Ukraine in fourth? I'm still scratching my head. OK, they're one of the countries who traditionally benefit from political voting and that was certainly the case tonight, but that can't be the whole of the explanation. It's hard to escape the conclusion that people were voting for the sand-artist rather than for the song or the singer.
Even though it wasn't the outcome I anticipated, I'm reasonably happy with it - at least the Azerbaijani song had a bit of charm and warmth about it, which is more than can be said for the typically formulaic Swedish offering. But it's interesting to see that Azerbaijan didn't win their semi-final (they were second behind Greece), so clearly there was nothing inevitable about the result. I was also really delighted when Italy pipped Sweden to second place with the very last vote cast. Hopefully this success should now cement Italy's place in the contest after a fourteen-year absence - although it has to be said that when they called it a day after 1997 it was off the back of an excellent fourth-place finish, so you just never know!
As I find myself saying at this point every year, it's undeniable that political voting continues to plague the contest. It probably didn't decide the winner this year, as all of the top-placed countries had natural allies (even Italy had San Marino and Malta), so it would have evened itself out to some extent. And we also know from Finland's victory a few years back that it's possible for countries with few allies to overcome the bias and win big. But there's no getting away from the fact that it's a significant disadvantage for some countries, and unquestionably affected the final rankings tonight. It's hard to see an obvious solution other than something very contrived such as giving each country a 'blacklist' of neighbours and friends they're not allowed to vote for. Even returning to a 100% jury vote wouldn't necessarily resolve the problem - Greece and Cyprus used to routinely swap twelve points every bit as much in the old days.
Incidentally, my one small criticism of Graham Norton (who in general was excellent again) is that I wish he would study a map of Europe before commentating on the voting. I couldn't believe he didn't pick up on the significance of Romania and Moldova voting for each other!
My own votes went to France and Spain - and funnily enough I think I might have done that even without my personal rule of only voting for songs not performed in English. I hadn't previously paid a huge amount of attention to the Spanish entry, partly because it wasn't involved in the semi-finals, but I completely fell in love with it tonight. Sad to see it didn't get the support it deserved - and the lowly ranking of Austria disappointed me a bit as well.
Last but not least, I'm really chuffed to say that this blog received the biggest number of visitors in its three-year history yesterday (ie. Saturday) as people landed here after searching for Eurovision predictions. Thanks to everyone for dropping by - I just wish I could have been more accurate for you! Ah well, at least I can cling to having got Denmark in the right place...
Showing posts with label Azerbaijan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Azerbaijan. Show all posts
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Eurovision 2010 prediction : the final
I really don't know whether to laugh or cry when I hear Pete Waterman claim that the Eurovision song he's penned for the UK has "every chance" of winning. I can understand how he might just have been labouring under that delusion back in March, but to still feel able to say that after having heard the competition demonstrates that he just never really 'got' Eurovision. Doubtless when the UK finishes somewhere in the bottom five (very possibly last) Pete will claim - as others have before him - to be utterly bemused, and put it all down to the bloc voting. And, to be fair, he might even be half-right if he does - but the bottom line is that Jade Ewen, Jessica Garlick and Imaani have all demonstrated that the UK's in-built disadvantage in the televoting age can be overcome with the right song and the right performance. Neither will be on offer this time.
In a sense, Waterman's comments are a classic case of putting 2 and 2 together and making 22, because he was clearly aware that Azerbaijan were the favourites, and after hearing their underwhelming performance in the semi-final instantly concluded that all bets are off. Well, he's maybe being wildly optimistic about the implications for the UK, but he's certainly bang on the money in his assessment of Azerbaijan - it really isn't looking like a winner, even taking into account the reports of an improved rehearsal. The early results from Esctoday's prediction poll seem to suggest that Armenia are poised to pick up the pieces - as I mentioned last night, I'm not convinced, but given its highly favourable draw, it certainly can't be ruled out.
At this point I could pray in aid the fact that I correctly predicted the winner in both 2008 and 2009, but those were both total no-brainers compared to this year. But I shan't be daunted - here's my wild stab in the dark of how I think it might all shake out...
Winners - Germany
2nd - Turkey
3rd - Romania
4th - Armenia
5th - Iceland
Possible dark horses - Denmark, Belgium
My gut feeling immediately after the second semi was that Turkey might just sneak it, but the glowing accounts of Germany's latest rehearsal have given me second thoughts. Lena could hardly have a better draw, and the song is going to stand out an absolute mile. But really there are half-a-dozen or more potential winners, and it's anyone's guess.
In my heart of hearts I don't really believe Denmark are going to come close to winning, but I do think you can just about build a plausible case for it. The song (which admittedly many people loathe) has a kind of I've Had The Time Of My Life vibe about it, which means performing last ought to be the dream draw. But to have any chance they'll have to nail every aspect of the performance - the vocals were fine in the semi-final, but the visual side still lacked a bit of sparkle compared to the Danish national selection.
Other intriguing questions - who will the UK vote for? The reintroduction of the juries complicates matters, but when we eventually see the televoting breakdowns, I'll be very surprised on past form if the British public haven't put one of the following countries in first place (admittedly I haven't a clue which one!) - Ireland, Greece, Turkey, Iceland or Cyprus.
As for me, I'll be following my long-standing personal rule and voting for my favourite of the songs not sung in English, which gives me a staggering total of six to choose from! I'm pretty sure that means I'll be voting for Portugal for the third year in a row.
In a sense, Waterman's comments are a classic case of putting 2 and 2 together and making 22, because he was clearly aware that Azerbaijan were the favourites, and after hearing their underwhelming performance in the semi-final instantly concluded that all bets are off. Well, he's maybe being wildly optimistic about the implications for the UK, but he's certainly bang on the money in his assessment of Azerbaijan - it really isn't looking like a winner, even taking into account the reports of an improved rehearsal. The early results from Esctoday's prediction poll seem to suggest that Armenia are poised to pick up the pieces - as I mentioned last night, I'm not convinced, but given its highly favourable draw, it certainly can't be ruled out.
At this point I could pray in aid the fact that I correctly predicted the winner in both 2008 and 2009, but those were both total no-brainers compared to this year. But I shan't be daunted - here's my wild stab in the dark of how I think it might all shake out...
Winners - Germany
2nd - Turkey
3rd - Romania
4th - Armenia
5th - Iceland
Possible dark horses - Denmark, Belgium
My gut feeling immediately after the second semi was that Turkey might just sneak it, but the glowing accounts of Germany's latest rehearsal have given me second thoughts. Lena could hardly have a better draw, and the song is going to stand out an absolute mile. But really there are half-a-dozen or more potential winners, and it's anyone's guess.
In my heart of hearts I don't really believe Denmark are going to come close to winning, but I do think you can just about build a plausible case for it. The song (which admittedly many people loathe) has a kind of I've Had The Time Of My Life vibe about it, which means performing last ought to be the dream draw. But to have any chance they'll have to nail every aspect of the performance - the vocals were fine in the semi-final, but the visual side still lacked a bit of sparkle compared to the Danish national selection.
Other intriguing questions - who will the UK vote for? The reintroduction of the juries complicates matters, but when we eventually see the televoting breakdowns, I'll be very surprised on past form if the British public haven't put one of the following countries in first place (admittedly I haven't a clue which one!) - Ireland, Greece, Turkey, Iceland or Cyprus.
As for me, I'll be following my long-standing personal rule and voting for my favourite of the songs not sung in English, which gives me a staggering total of six to choose from! I'm pretty sure that means I'll be voting for Portugal for the third year in a row.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Hold on, be strong, find some earplugs
I've just been having a peek at Esctoday.com for the first time in many months (for the uninitiated, it's the biggest independent website devoted to the Eurovision Song Contest). I was hoping to find out a little more about the scandal I vaguely heard about a week or two back, concerning a few dozen Azerbaijanis who were tracked down by the authorities and questioned...about why they had picked up the phone and voted for Armenia in the contest in May. Apparently there was nothing unusual or untoward in the request for an explanation. I note that Freedom House currently rates Azerbaijan as 'Not Free' - but surely the country should get special dispensation for only interfering in their citizens' lives on the grounds of dubious musical taste?
Anyway, no obvious sign of that controversy on Esctoday's main page (I'm sure it's there in the archive somewhere), but what I did find instead was a poll to decide the best Eurovision song of the decade, which has now been narrowed down to a grand final of 24. Rather refreshingly to my eyes, it's not a million miles away from a shortlist I might have drawn up myself - the two big omissions being Once in a Lifetime by Ines (Estonia 2000) and the brilliant If I Had Your Love by Selma (Iceland 2005). The absence of the former can probably be put down to the passage of time, and the latter perhaps never had a chance due to the ropey live performance which saw the song crash out unexpectedly at the semi-final stage. However, another song that met the same fate, Je t'adore by Kate Ryan (Belgium 2006) does make the cut. I'm delighted because it's one of my two all-time favourites - the other being the enchanting Icelandic ballad, Is it True?, that finished second in Moscow this year. So who to vote for? Looks like I've still got time to ponder that one.
Although I do wonder what a certain Irish Eurovision enthusiast, a man with no little pride in his unerring judgement, makes of the list. How on earth did Hold On, Be Strong go from being "clearly the worst song in the contest" in 2008 to being in the running for best song of the decade?
Anyway, no obvious sign of that controversy on Esctoday's main page (I'm sure it's there in the archive somewhere), but what I did find instead was a poll to decide the best Eurovision song of the decade, which has now been narrowed down to a grand final of 24. Rather refreshingly to my eyes, it's not a million miles away from a shortlist I might have drawn up myself - the two big omissions being Once in a Lifetime by Ines (Estonia 2000) and the brilliant If I Had Your Love by Selma (Iceland 2005). The absence of the former can probably be put down to the passage of time, and the latter perhaps never had a chance due to the ropey live performance which saw the song crash out unexpectedly at the semi-final stage. However, another song that met the same fate, Je t'adore by Kate Ryan (Belgium 2006) does make the cut. I'm delighted because it's one of my two all-time favourites - the other being the enchanting Icelandic ballad, Is it True?, that finished second in Moscow this year. So who to vote for? Looks like I've still got time to ponder that one.
Although I do wonder what a certain Irish Eurovision enthusiast, a man with no little pride in his unerring judgement, makes of the list. How on earth did Hold On, Be Strong go from being "clearly the worst song in the contest" in 2008 to being in the running for best song of the decade?
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