Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now / The National):
Yes 52% (-4)
No 48% (+4)
There's no cause for alarm in the apparent swing to No, because the previous poll was insanely good for Yes and that may have just been caused (at least in part) by margin of error noise, ie. the new poll may just be a reversion to the mean. The low 50s has been the most typical Yes vote share from Find Out Now, who over the years have shown a pro-independence majority in all but one of the independence polls they've ever conducted. So yes, it's time to sound that SETTLED WILL KLAXON once again.
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"ie. the new poll may just be a reversion to the mean. "
ReplyDeleteI'm going to suggest it's just gone the other way, and that the average of 54% is the actual mean - or midpoint!
Politics works through political parties, including on constitutional matters.
ReplyDeleteWhat’s your take on Sultana Party implosion likely impact on SNP and Scots Labour? I think: positive for both, perhaps also for Scots Greens although I can never make that lot out as they just seem so oddball to me I can’t see why anyone would even consider voting for them.
A nice raisin for SNP to advance would help Yes greatly, assuming the disillusioned Lefties some over to the party.
YouGov, Westminster voting intention, field work 22nd Sept.
ReplyDeleteUK headline: RefUK 9% lead, a new high for YouGov.
Scottish sub-sample (150)
Con 10%, Lab 13%, LibDem 11%, SNP 34%, RefUK 24%, Green 6%.
A pretty low YouGov result for Labour in Scotland.
As Snalparg the Vicious is alleged to have said, 'Shove that in your Anglo-Brit Nationalist pipe and inhale it.'
DeleteI got this reply about weighting from Find Out Now. I wonder if 16 and 17 year olds weee included.
ReplyDeleteWe don't weight on 2014 referendum vote, as given it was so long ago we don't trust it would improve accuracy: given it would entirely exclude the youngest age groups and people may have forgotten or since changed their minds. For the same reason in our UK polling we wouldn't weight on 2016 EU vote.
However, we do weight on past Westminster vote (which only happened last year) which largely covers the same base.
The Find Out Now polling panel doesn't include 16 and 17 year olds. When I commissioned an independence poll from them in 2023, I raised that issue and they were actually able to resolve it by sourcing a small number of 16 and 17 year olds from another company's panel. However, I don't think they've been doing that in their more recent polls.
DeleteIs ALBA given up?
ReplyDeleteThere is no Alba party, there never was, there was only Alex Salmond's degrade and destroy the SNP project because he was ordered to by Ed Miliband on the promise of a seat in the HOL
DeleteDo keep up
I luv the stelled will clackson almost as much as I luv Nessie
ReplyDeleteGreat party last night Shaz you were blootered again
Delete"I luv the stelled will clackson almost as much as I luv Nessie"
DeleteAnd what about CHRIS in all this, young lady?!
Chris who, M or C? I'm no a mindreader hun
DeleteBut thx for the young
About the Swinney resolution:
ReplyDelete"“The issue of the constitution is reserved to the United Kingdom Parliament, that issue has been tested by the Supreme Court and that view has been explained by the Supreme Court,” he [Swinney] said."
This is not the whole truth. Nowhere near the whole truth. That reservation is in the Scotland Act, which originated the Scottish Parliament as it stands. But it does NOT reserve the constitution as far as Scotland itself is concerned, nor the Scottish People. Nor does it bind the SNP as a political party in any way at all.
And arguably it no longer determines the Scottish Parliament even as now, since that has evolved through not 1, but 6 Holyrood Elections, also known as General Elections, which determine our democracy, and this will be the 7th in 2026.
Swinney should not make such vague and generalised submissive statements, he needs to be much more legally specific and assertive - get advice, John Boy. You're losing my support.
Appalling and ignorant statement by J S. If a unionist made that claims we would call him out as a liar. We have no hope of progressing Indy with him in charge.
ReplyDeleteGot to watch it though because of misreporting or poor headlines by the media. From the National:
Delete"Angus Robertson predicts independent Scotland and unified Ireland in 10 years"
but that's not what he said, he said both IN THE EU by 2035, and it would take at least 2 or 3 years to become members, so independent before 10 years:
Robertson: “I think it's entirely realistic that within a decade both Scotland and a united Ireland will be part of the European Union.”
and he said "within" not "in". Big difference - we hope!