YouGov poll : SNP retain clear lead - but a timely reminder for party supporters not to muck about on the list vote

The last of the weekly campaign polls for Scotland on Sunday continues to show a very healthy lead for the SNP on the constituency ballot, but the race appears to have significantly tightened on the all-important list ballot.  Here are the full figures -

Constituency vote : 

SNP 42% (-3)
Labour 34% (+2)
Conservatives 12% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1) 

Regional list vote : 

SNP 35% (-4)
Labour 33% (+4)
Conservatives 12% (-)
Greens 7% (-)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)

If I was going to put a maximally pessimistic spin on these figures I would say two things.  Firstly, the bulk of the fieldwork for the poll will have been carried out before the Royal Wedding ceremony - which may have had no effect on voting intention whatsoever, but if by any chance there was one, it's unlikely to be favourable for the SNP.  Secondly, YouGov's eve-of-election poll in 2007 overstated the SNP's lead by five points on the constituency vote, and by two points on the list.  The latter point in particular is an important reminder of just how close this election might yet prove to be - and in similar circumstances last time round the SNP were reliant on votes on the regional list in all eight regions to secure a one-seat victory.  I hope that will give any party supporters pondering the dangerous game of 'tactical voting' on the list ballot serious pause for thought.

There is also a positive spin available, of course - compared to where we were just a few short weeks ago, this is an impossibly wonderful poll for the SNP!

UPDATE : I've finally tracked down the full figures from last night's other poll by Progressive Scottish Opinion, which unlike YouGov shows a positive direction of travel for the SNP on the list vote...

Constituency vote :

SNP 45% (-1)
Labour 35% (-1)
Conservatives 10% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-)

Regional list vote :

SNP 41% (+3)
Labour 36% (-1)
Conservatives 8% (-2)
Greens 6% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-4)

The same two snags that I mentioned last week apply again, though - a) PSO don't have that great a track record, and b) the fieldwork is unlikely to have been as recent as the YouGov poll.  I don't have the dates, although a regular poster on Political Betting suggested it finished on the 27th, which if true would at least make it a bit more up-to-date than last week's.

I can't tell you what I thought of the Royal Wedding because...

...I somehow contrived to get myself stranded on the Isle of Arran last night, and missed the whole thing as a result! I can't say I'm overly sorry about that side of things, but the mishap cost me £60 in B&B accommodation and transport home. I had very 'cleverly' bought a day return Rail & Sail combined ticket - but of course that just ended up costing me money, because it was invalid by the time I was able to travel back. I don't think I've ever asked for a refund on an unused return rail ticket before in my life, and I've no idea if it's even possible to do so in these circumstances, but I'm just about sufficiently annoyed with myself to risk the inevitable "are you mad" look. Apart from anything else, I'm an on/off Doctor Who fan, and the closing lines of Terror of the Zygons keep coming back to me...

Did they have return tickets?

Yes, I believe so.

You should have taken them in and got your refund, man. I thought you were a Scotsman. 

You'll be relieved to hear that, while I missed the Royal Wedding, I was still able to watch John McTernan on Newsnight Scotland last night from the comfort of my B&B room. That lifted my morale no end.