The data tables for the new Norstat independence poll were released yesterday - and as expected they confirm that the poll was weighted by recalled 2014 referendum result, a practice that other polling firms like Ipsos have warned could be a serious mistake due to the danger of false recall after such a long period of time. In the video commentary below I reveal exactly what the independence results were on Norstat's unweighted numbers - and I pose the question of whether this means Yes have had a sustained lead on the ground for many years, but that fact has been effectively concealed from us by dubious polling methodology. I also take stock of another poor poll result for Alba, which firmly suggests Alex Salmond's former party is heading for zero seats next May.
Another way of helping is by subscribing to my YouTube channel (which I must stress is completely free!). I need to reach at least 1000 subscribers and I'm currently on 620.
Trump has a new cap coming out soon. MAGAGA. Make America Great At Golf Again.
ReplyDelete" 60% or higher" - it will have to be a lot higher before Swinney does anything.
ReplyDeleteYes, it could. Having done Stats at Uni I understand the idea of weighting a sample to better represent the overall population, by sex, age, social blah blah - but remembered voting from even 1 year ago, let alone 11?
ReplyDeleteI guess if the unweighted data was put into a spreadsheet, it might be possible to weight by some factors and not others. Mmm, probably not, you'd need each data item to tabulate that. Ho hum.
J S take note.
ReplyDelete" Take note"??????? Swinney is too busy going to banquets with Royalty. The only question about Swinney is what gong will he get from the Establishment?
DeleteI think ALBA should just recognise the reality of the situation. They are doomed.
ReplyDeleteDoomed I tell you ****doomed*****. We are all doomed if Swinney doesn’t get the finger oot.
DeleteAlex Salmond said during Indyref that there was an underlying majority for Independence. That's what I found talking to people, during the ref campaign, after and still, now. But there was and is, concern about the future - their future.
ReplyDeleteAnd there's no such thing as "unionists", or "Britnats" (appalling invented divisive word). They're all potential YES voters, given the right incentives - like at least the status quo in their personal and family lives. Roof over the head, food on the table, heat in the home, a future for any kids, and at least some, leisure activity.
That's all it takes. And the likes of Douglas Alexander kens that fine.
Brit Nats is a perfectly accurate descriptive term.
DeleteGarbage.
DeleteI have worked with and know plenty of folk in Scotland who are unionists/britnats to their very core.
They would rather die than vote for Independence.
Those terms are very apt for them.
The big problem is, nobody has really explained the benefits of independence. Important issues like currency, border with England our biggest trading partner by far, pensions, etc, have never been addressed properly. People are concerned about big change, and when push comes to shove they vote for the status quo.
DeleteA very descriptive term as is the more formal 'Anglo-British nationalist'.
DeleteBRITNATS is a reasonable term. The britnats hate it!
DeleteBritnats is an appropriate term. It also annoys the britnats including IFS.
Delete9.34am. England used to be Ireland’s largest trading partner but that is not the case now and Ireland is all the better for it.
DeleteIt's the economy. Only by selling the economic case will many more people go for independence. Yet the SNP continue to produce the GERS report that is just nonsense (£26billion Annual Deficit ) that tells people who have zero knowledge of economics that Scotland is an economic basket case when the reality is that it is England that is the basket case.
DeleteThe Britnats ( yesindyref2 that's what they are) import propagandists to organisations like the Fraser of Allander institute to then propagandise such nonsense on TV. Sadly people then go "they are experts it must be right ". They are bought and paid for experts from the same type of person/expert who said the oil would be finished by now back in 2014. Without any sense of shame these same liars are now advocating for more new oil fields to be opened up.
UK National Debt has grown from £0.8 Trillion when Cameron wanted austerity measures in 2010 to £2.7 trillion in 2025.
Yet Norway in 2025 has a wealth fund of over 2 trillion dollars.
Is it beyond anyone in the SNP to point this out to the people of Scotland or are they all just interested in the toilet rights of men in women's dresses.
I a Scot Nat and prood o it . Some folk sit on the fence or are undecided , others are simply Brit nats !
ReplyDeleteI do agree with YIR2 that Britnat is a divisive term although it is perfectly descriptive from our point of view.
ReplyDeleteDo remember though that the Unionist equivalent for us is Separatist, which they would claim to be equally descriptive from their position.
I don't much like either. The majority of Scots, I would suggest, are soft No or tentative Yes. Nobody will go from Britnat to Separatist overnight so why do the two terms get thrown around so much as if we're all one or the other?
Very happy to be called a separatist. Why would anyone want to be partnered with an England who assists a country they call a friend that is committing a genocide.
Delete@K Boyd, you don't get out much if you think anybody who is YES is "tentative" and BTW Britnats hate, there's a big difference between us
DeleteIt was noticeable on the bbc at lunchtime how it try to play down the fantastic riposte by John Swinney to Sarwar who alleged elitism. Sitting behind private educated Sarwar whose dad was a Lord was a Dame Katy Clark (don't labour love privilege). BBC used their commentators from the Telegraph and the Scotsman to divert and move on.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to be a political powerhouse, like former Labour MP Katy Clarke, who gets dumped by the electorate. Just one shake of the magic Labour Privilege Wand and the rejected MP becomes a Dame. It's like panto. Do these Dames and whatevers get access to the House of Lords money pit too, or merely the chance to mix with the finest in society?
DeleteFind Out Now, Westminster voting intention, field work 1st Oct.
ReplyDeleteUK headline; RefUK 16% lead, no change from last week, but RefUK (and Labour) +2% on the chasing pack.
Scottish sub-sample (136).
Con 8%, Lab 15%, LibDem 10%, RefUK 30%, Green 3%, SNP 29%.
RefUK ahead by a nose, but it’s Find Out Now we’re dealing with, so take with a skip full of sodium chloride.
The term Shy. Tory used to lead to a higher than expected Conservative result at elections than polls predicted.
DeleteI think the Shy Reform effect will be even more pronounced. They’re obviously doing well in the polls, but there’s probably a load more folk who won’t admit supporting them but will vote for them in the privacy of the polling booth.
Anyways, Q6-2 gives an interesting detail. Weighted with 10.1% English Birth (and 6.6% Other) gives 53.1% YES, whereas Unweighted with 13.6% English Birth (and 8.2% Other) gives 61.1%.
ReplyDeleteIt would appear that the more English there are, the higher YES goes - which if actually representative, might confuse some people. Same for Other country of birth.
It seems we need more immigrants to get Independence.
I should have pointed out that that's the 2nd page of Q6_2.
DeleteDid the same for May25 Norstat:
Weighted with 9.7% English Birth (and 7.0% Other) gives 53.7% YES, whereas Unweighted with 12.5% English Birth (and 6.6% Other) gives 61.4%.
Jan25 Norstat:
Weighted with 9.2% English Birth (and 6.1% Other) gives 50.4% YES, whereas Unweighted with 11.2% English Birth (and 8.7% Other) gives 55.8%.
A lot depends I guess on how Norstat select those they poll, and how - I've no idea. It does look like the more English born, the higher the YES in all 3 polls. Making assertions that more English incomers is bad news for Indy - false. That matches what I found in Indy Ref 1 - many came here to get as far away from Westminster as possible, specially folk from Yorkshire who'd have voted YES to Independence for Yorkshire. Why would supporters of the Union move to Scotland which is in imminent danger of becoming Independent?
But yes, it's not the first time the unweighted data exceeded 60% YES - it did it in May, and I didn't check others.
Protesting against genocide is “un-British” according to our new Home Secretary.
ReplyDeleteStarmer’s cabinet are sock puppets for the Permanent State & the Security Services.
She couldn't boil a potato in a kettle without help from Liz Truss. In fact, she is Liz Truss in a wig.
DeleteAccording the U.K. home secretary Shabana Mahmood I may well be “unbritish”. Should I await a knock at my door or just agree with her?
ReplyDeleteMahmood is the kind of opportunist scum who uses a terrorist attack to try and divert criticism from her policy.
DeleteShades of SPAD, Jo Moore and her “good day to bury bad news”, comment on 11/09/01.
Glad to hear she's so British she's defining it for the Britain's.
Delete“The UK's Chief Rabbi, Sir Ephraim Mirvis, told the BBC Radio 4's Today programme that many members of the Jewish community wondered why marches in support of Palestine Action had been allowed to take place.”.
ReplyDeleteSuper, now I have to ask permission of the UK’s Chief Zionist to see if I’m “allowed” to protest against genocide.
For decades, these people have played an absolutist game, and they have benefited from it. Now the tide has turned, and they are tin-eared to the outrage, and revulsion of the vast majority of the population.
Despite the National's excellent coverage of the Sumud flotilla for Gaza over multiple articles none of them appear in the National's most read list.
ReplyDeleteThe National has been consistently excellent in it's reporting of the Israeli genocide but if it's own readership are showing signs of weariness and indifference, it doesn't say much for the wider population.
Ach for goodness sake that's really got me going.
ReplyDeleteDec 24 Norstat wouldn't be 54% YES, 46% NO it would be 60.4% YES,
Oct/Nov24 Norstat wouldn't be 50%, 50%, it would be 58.5% YES,
Aug24 Norstat wouldn't be 48% YES, 52% NO, it would be 53.3% YES.
We've been winning for simply ages.