Sunday, September 28, 2025

53% back independence in BOMBSHELL poll: panic grips Westminster as Norstat knock up another natty number

Incredibly, after a summer of practically no Scottish polls, we've now had four in the last week, and three have had voting intentions numbers.  The latest is from the regular Norstat series for the Sunday Times.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 53% (-1)
No 47% (+1)

This run of Yes-majority polls from Norstat is now far too sustained to be coincidental, and it's really strange in a way, because Norstat's predecessor Panelbase was for many years one of the more No-friendly companies, and to the best of my knowledge they haven't changed their methodology - they haven't abandoned 2014 weighting or anything like that (even though in my opinion they probably should).  The most logical explanation is therefore that Yes support has indeed risen markedly - and yet most other polling firms haven't really picked up that trend.

One of the problems with this switching-to-video-blogging malarkey is that there are some times of day when it's not really feasible to drop everything and make a video, which means I'm not reacting quite as quickly to new polls as I was with conventional blogging.  I'll need to have a think about how to square that circle in the future, but with a bit of luck I'll have a video about the Norstat poll within the next 12-24 hours.  In the meantime, here are a few of my tweets from yesterday.  I've said it before and I'll say it again - there is NOTHING that triggers the Brit Nat hordes quite like a tweet about curling.

19 comments:

  1. The Confederate dollars remind us of who many of the Scottish wealth elite supported. The Confederacy had a ship buying commission based at Bridge of Allan and Jefferson Davis later came over for a stay with his Glasgow chums.

    Moral ? Economic elites are driven by love of money, their fellow humans come well down the list.

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    1. Yes, because Glasgow's main industry at the time was cotton, prevalent in the southern states. Clyde Shipbuilding got a kickstart by the American Civil War too. Before the Clyde was further deepened, Glasgow shipbuilders originally specialised in ships with a shallow draught which were perfect for navigating the Confederate rivers. As always, money talks.

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  2. James, these polls change nothing on the constitutional question. We all know that next year will be a SNP win but not for democracy. After the election once again Scotland and its people will be the loser in the election even though we have just voted for the SNP on the constitutional question but nothing will change on the ground or in the debate.

    Then it'll be the same in the next Westminster election, the only way to make change is to remove the idea that Westminster holds the power on the constitutional question and that's something the SNP will never do because its the SNP gold standard for Staying in power and staying in the Union.

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    1. John Swinney loves how powerless he’s made you. Back in your box, Jocks. When he retires, it’ll be another devolutionist in his stead, licking Nigel’s shoes, telling us it’s all we can hope for.

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    2. You're being an exceptionally silly little troll

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  3. Until recently, the audio from your videos would appear in the SGP podcast feed. Could you reinstate that please as I find it much easier to listen to your content that way than watching it on YT.

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  4. And labour give £1.5 billion of our money to help out Jaguar Land Rover because it is in Englands national interest. Grangemouth? Ignore.

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    1. Back in 2014, it was tempting to blame unionist Scots for the contempt London shows us. “You voted for it.”

      Then we roundly beat them in 2015 and sent a clean slate of nationalists there to represent us.

      It’s not so compelling any more, is it? Why are we still here? Why does Scotland eat everything England spits in before it hands it down to us? Is it the SNP or is it Scots?

      We’re the easiest nation on earth to control. Why is that? And who has the power and the gumption to stop it?

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    2. Mairi McAllan. She's the one who'll lead us to the promised land.

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    3. McAllan is more likely to lead you to Harrods of London.

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  5. OT but not really.

    I'm happy to criticise the National when it's needed, but I've been meaning to say for weeks, months, that it is doing a great job of selling Scotland itself - and that can help create a feel good factor which will help support for Independence.

    Articles like this from today for instance in its "Our Scotland":

    "This deserted Scottish island littered with WWII relics is a spooky site"

    "The Scottish loch 'like no other' where a 'rare' and 'punky' bird can be found"

    "This Scottish pub dating back to 1790 is one of the UK's best for a seaside pint"

    "Why this Michelin-listed bar in Scotland is one of the best in the world"

    "These strange hedges near Edinburgh have been cultivated for over 20 years"

    "This 'magical' and 'hidden' glen could be the best to visit in all of Scotland"

    "'Scrumptious' seaside fish and chip shop in Scotland named among the UK's best"

    "Why this Scottish city is one of the cheapest places in the UK to buy a home"

    Unlike the Hellish Herald which goes on and on about every single "fiasco" ferry cancellation and is hence directly responsible for a drop in tourism, not only to the Islands but the mainland as well.

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  6. Yougov polls seem to show a trend of movement to YES going from 11pc 9pc to 3pc more in favour of NO. That's a fair movement to YES even in their polls.

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  7. There's probably an AI app out there that could learn your voice and style from the videos you've done already, which could be used to convert you written blogs into podcasts.

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    1. I don't know if this makes me an old fuddy-duddy, but I can't think of anything much more horrific than what you've just described. If the videos/podcasts aren't authentic, there's no point making them.

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    2. It would be cool if your lounge looked like Max Headroom’s, tho.

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    3. If I'm busy, I'll often put earphones in and select "Listen to this page" in my browser. It may be a fake American AI voice and not at all preferable to a human voice, but it's definitely listenable (certainly not horrific) and an okay option when I otherwise wouldn't have the time to read it.

      But then I can do that anyway with your written blogs, with absolutely no extra effort whatsoever required on your part.

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  8. I saw the bbc correspondent on tele tonight from Switzerland tonight and as far as I can see is daughter of a certain labour Lord. I wonder if this could be updated https://lenathehyena.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/oh-what-a-tangled-web-we-weave-when-first-we-practice-to-deceive-bbc-scotland-and-the-labour-party/

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  9. The labour home secretary tells their conference how they should be proud of the Union Jack and the St George’s Cross. Where Sarwar when you need him!!

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    1. Busy telling lies about the relative performances of the NHS in England and Scotland, in a double act with his new besty, Alexander. Yes, the one caught fiddling money from the Scottish taxpayers and who had to resign. A liar and a thief doing a wee double act at the Labour Party conference. All they need is Jackie Donut Bailey and they could do a remake of the three stooges. Collectively still doing the sum total of SFA for Scotland, but still drawing large salaries and expenses from our hard earned taxes.

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