The new YouGov MRP seats projection in Scotland is rather neat, in the sense that it exactly reverses the result of the 2024 general election, giving the SNP 37 seats and Labour 9. However, that does still mean that the SNP would fail to win around one-third of Scottish constituency seats at Westminster, which will hopefully be a timely wake-up call as SNP members approach a conference in which they will have to decide whether to back a John Swinney plan which bets the house on literally being able to win 90% of the Holyrood constituency seats. It's just not going to happen, and the Swinney plan desperately needs to be amended. Find out all the details of the MRP poll in my video commentary below.
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Very good analysis again. Btw, will Keir Starmer last longer than that bendy bookshelf behind you?
ReplyDeleteWhat difference does it make whether the SNP has nine or thirty-seven MPs in Westminster? What purpose do they serve?
ReplyDeleteOn a spectrum, they could; disrupt proceedings, make searching contributions to further the representation of their constituents, or kowtow.
Of late, they have chosen the latter. The SNP abstained in the vote on the proscription of Palestine Action. Most recently, they have remained silent on the removal of press accreditation for Declassified UK. Plaid Cymru saw fit to condemn the exclusion of this radical investigative journalism outlet.
The SNP in Westminster are the Irish Parliamentary Party for the 21st century. With former US State Department, covert asset, Stephen Gethins in their ranks it’s little wonder.
Anon at 8.09 am ... just on one of your points ... the Palestine Action vote in Westminster also took in two other organisations, namely the Russian Imperial Movement, and the Maniacs Murder Cult. A cynic would say that, by including those other two in the same vote, Westminster was making sure that the proscription of PA would not be voted against. Imagine how the English media would have portrayed the SNP if they had voted against proscription. So abstention was probably the "best" that the SNP could do.
DeleteIn reply to the hypothetical cynic, we could say that because we all agree (I assume) that the English media will never portray the SNP positively regardless of what they do, it might not be worth failing to oppose authoritarianism in order to seek their favour
DeleteYour disingenuous comment on the proscription vote shows you to be no more than a nasty little liar. Either that or you are completely ignorant.
DeleteKeaton is correct. The SNP didn't care about all the bad publicity they needlessly provided for the English media over recent years e.g. rapists being put in women's jail, but couldnae stand up for the right to oppose a genocide.
DeleteSwinney appears incapable of grasping the potential that currently exists within the broader Indy movement. Either that or he is completely Party First, Indy a distant second. What a disappointment.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney's 'strategy' is based on the random alignment of the stars that occurred in 2011.
ReplyDeleteNobody planned for that happening because nobody expected it, least of all then leader Alex Salmond and the SNP.
He is, therefore, basing his 'plan' on a fluke.
The SNP leader is pointing to the 2011 HE and hoping that nobody looks at the other 5 Scottish parliamentary elections.
Whatever else he is John Swinney is not entirely stupid. He knows this.
All he really hopes to achieve is the return of and SNP Scottish government in HE 2026.
John Swinney is a fraud.
YEH IFS we see you.
DeleteAnon @ 12.59.
DeleteNo you don't, fool.
Ach there's always Liberate Scotland !
DeleteAnon at 12 59pm - you are as blind as a bat and have a similar intellect. That post is not from me. You are obsessed with me and see me everywhere.
DeleteIfs, still planning on wasting your vote by voting ISP?
DeleteSwinney said the SNP is a democratic movement, so far he hasn't said he would quit if the motion is amended, so conference should easily vote for the amendment
ReplyDeleteIn grown up parties motions can be amended updated changed revoked and people remain in the party/ organisation without any hassle.
ReplyDeleteGood? It's an unbelievably good poll for the snp. Think you've just pushed IFS closer to the edge lol
ReplyDeleteIt is a good poll, however we need all supporters of independence to get behind the SNP and vote for them next year, including the likes of ifs. The snp are the only show in town and surely people can see that. Time for people to screw the nut.
Delete2016 Holyrood election 46.5 % Constituency and 41.7% Regional vote.
Delete2021 Holyrood election 47.7% Constituency and 40.34% Regional vote.
Both say Declan is, as ever, posting rubbish.
If we actually want the SNP to deliver independence then we need the truth. Not silly propaganda from the likes of Declan.
OT. From the Herald Brian Taylor about education:
ReplyDelete"Of the ethos pervading our secondary schools – and, sometimes now, our primaries. ... You will be familiar with media reports of teachers facing abuse, even violence. Beneath that, though, is another factor. An atmosphere where low-level disruption in classes is routine. Where attention is limited, focus hard to sustain."
"sometimes"? There's such ignorance about what happens in primary schools, they should talk to teachers who dread going in and suffer from severe stress as well as bruises from chairs being thrown, punches and at times, hospitalisation. That's "little kids".
People will say Gilruth was a teacher; that was way back in the days there was more respect for teachers from parents and kids, and much more discipline possible. Not any more, and it's possibly the P1 to P7 are the worst. Teachers are exiting the profession just as fast they can. And no wonder.
Are you a teacher? or ex navy demanding full obedience?
DeleteSometimes - you have it absolutely bang on. I have relatives who are teachers and it's out of control in some schools now. The unions have made representations to the government and all they say is 'promote positivity'. The system is failing all the kids, those with behavioural problems don't get the support they need and the disruption is costing other kids their one chance at education. Don't forget that school is there to prepare us for adulthood and losing your chance at education refuces your career options. As someone who is ill educated I know how important it is. For years we've been pretending it's okay, one day we'll have to admit the CE is failing children and the lack of sanctions is compounding the problem.
Delete@WT Indeed. I know of several off with mental health issues, some severe.
DeleteI think Gilruth should have to spend a month in one of the worst of the primary schools, average worst if you see what I mean. As a support assistant (nowhere near enough of them), trying to protect herself from kicks, punches, spitting, throwing, while having to change nappies (yes, P1 upwards still), or take kids to the toilet who aren't even toilet trained. As well as the many "on the spectrum", who do respond to the right teaching, but take a lot of effort in a class of 25 or 33.
Politicians clueless or uncaring - take your pick. Letting down teachers and pupils big time.
Teachers like nurses and firefighters are bone idle and incompetent and folk should give it a rest with all their sanctifying of these overpaid professions
Deletecan you clarify if you'll be attending the SNP conference,and will you be allowed to make a speech in favour of the amendment?
ReplyDeleteI've registered as a delegate. I don't know whether I should attempt to speak or not. I've never spoken at a conference before, so If anyone can explain to me like I'm five years old how the process works, feel free to email me.
Deleteanon are you going?
DeleteI would try to speak, SGP. Most people who have a clue will know who you are from many years and this alone from your article is justification:
Delete"they will have to decide whether to back a John Swinney plan which bets the house on literally being able to win 90% of the Holyrood constituency seats."
at the very least to make people think. I actually kind of disagree - I think what's needed is to give an incentive to voters to vote SNP on the list as well- a real strong genuine incentive.
I'm not convinced there's going to be a good outcome from the conference at the moment, it seems to be either or, with the usual full scale polarisation whereas I think what's needed is simply, all of it, put together in a coherent fashion.
Others are saying this is the last gasp chance for the SNP to show their full colours for Indy, or go the same way as the IPP in 1918. I agree. Full speed ahead or it's a Titanic of wimpering proportions.
yi2 not an SNP member yet tries to tell others what to do. Fair weather Hypocrite.
DeleteGive it a go James. People of good political sense respect honest commitment even if a speech is a bit unpolished.
ReplyDeleteKeep it short and say what you believe. I'm going to be a zoom delegate so - with you in spirit.
How many other independence supporting parties are there to vote for other than SNP, Greens? Alba plus who? What are the credible options to try and achieve an independence supporting majority for HR 2026?
ReplyDeleteAlso, really disappointing, but predictable that south of Scotland, Borders and Dumfries are predicted to go Reform UK. Who are the Reform UK candidates down there?
/OT ...Super Boab fae Oban daein his bit snd mair.......MOAN EUROPE111
ReplyDeleteOpinium, Westminster voting intention, field work 24 - 26 Sept.
ReplyDeleteUK headline; RefUK 10% lead, +1% on last Opinium poll, & a new record for them.
Scottish sub-sample (119)
Con 12%, Lab 20%, LibDem 6%, SNP 34%, RefUK 24%, Green 4%
From the national:
ReplyDelete"Gerry Hassan: To defeat the far right the left must capture the narrative first"
Has it ever occurred to Dumbo that one of the reasons for the advance of the far right is an excess of the far left like him?
Exactly. Like when they replaced the Saltire at independence demos with trans / Palestine flags and then bitched about the far right claiming 'their' flag.
DeleteIt's not far away now when splitters like you will become part of the problem rather than the solution. Grow up - the threat is real!
DeleteIn the first Indy Ref it was mostly run by the left, and the likes of RIC did great work in getting voters registered who normally don't care. It helped break Labour's hegemony, and brought Indy support to 44.7%, with it going over 50% a couple of times in polls.
DeleteBut it didn't get us Independence. Hoing even further to the left with the likes of Hassan and the extreme left of the Scottish Greens is the last thing we need. We need the economy, curreny, mortgages, saving, even a foreign holiday once a year for those who do without to pay for it.
The problem is the people who try to insist "we" all want the same things with Independence. We don't, even amongst the Indy movement. Normal punters who vote even less so.
The total electorate will be about 4.4 million people in 2026. All with different hopes, dreams and aspirations. "We" are not clones, and if the left captures the narrative again we're fecked.
I took the trouble to read it for a change, and it's not as bad as the headline, which I think is a misrepresentation as that was the "vacuum" after 2008. I can go along with this, as long as it's NOT over-stated, and the word is joyous and fun (that's two words!), rather than protesting and "down with the far right":
Delete"Mason believes there needs to be “big, cultural festivals of resistance in every town and city, using public money to press home the message: we are a proudly multicultural, multi-religious and multinational state”."
I can go with all of that as long as this negative aggression is removed: "of resistance" making it:
"there needs to be “big, cultural festivals in every town and city, using public money to press home the message: we are a proudly multicultural, multi-religious and multinational state”."
Call it "We are Scotland" and be done with it. And yes, the SNP should indeed jump on board, not organise, but be near the front of it all.
Perhaps Swinney can give us his famous jig, with Kaukab Stewart on the banjo [1] and GMK on the drums beating the heart of it.
[1] Billy Connolly can give her some lessons