Pandemonium in the bath as history-making Norstat poll shows massive Yes lead, with the SNP and the Greens on course to retain the PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY in the 2026 election

Sorry, that headline should probably read "Pandemonium in Bath".  Let's briefly recap on this week's dramatic events...

Tuesday: Stuart Campbell announces that polls show "there is no credible prospect" of retaining the pro-independence majority at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.  He goes on to say: "we’re going to call this one early: there is zero prospect of a pro-indy majority after the next Holyrood election. None. Barring a nuclear war or an alien invasion or some equally implausible revolutionary event, it’s simply not happening."

Saturday: Norstat poll shows the SNP and the Greens on course to retain the pro-independence majority in 2026.

Life comes at you fast these days.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot (Norstat/Sunday Times):

SNP 37% (+4)

Labour 21% (-2)

Conservatives 14% (-1)

Reform UK 12% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-)

Greens 5% (-1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 32% (+3)

Labour 18% (-4)

Conservatives 16% (+2)

Reform UK 12% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)

Greens 8% (-1)

Alba 5% (+2)

Scottish Parliament seats projection: 

SNP 59

Labour 20

Conservatives 19

Reform UK 13

Liberal Democrats 11

Greens 7

TOTAL PRO-INDEPENDENCE SEATS: 66

TOTAL ANTI-INDEPENDENCE SEATS : 63

PRO-INDEPENDENCE OVERALL MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 54% (+4)

No 46% (-4)

The independence numbers are a major and very pleasant surprise as far as I'm concerned - if this was an Ipsos poll, 54% for Yes would be within the normal range but in a Norstat poll it's absolutely exceptional.  But in truth, regardless of Mr Campbell's ill-judged musings on Tuesday, the pro-indy majority in the seats projection shouldn't be such a huge shock.  Labour have been clearly continuing to drift downwards in recent weeks in Britain-wide polls, and there was no particular reason to think that phenomenon wouldn't extend to Scotland or that the SNP wouldn't be a beneficiary.

That's the case for the prosecution, but admittedly there's also a case for the defence, which is that Norstat have perhaps tended to be a little bit more favourable to the SNP than other firms have been since the general election, so there's certainly no guarantee that a poll from a different firm would show a pro-indy majority in the seats projection.  However, it's pretty likely (not certain) that any poll would show the same broad trend of a swing back from Labour to the SNP.

Although the pro-indy majority is the most striking feature of the poll, it's not the only remarkable possibility that has suddenly been brought into play.  Labour have probably been assuming that, at worst, they would be guaranteed to overtake the Tories and become at least the second-largest party.  That is now far from assured - although conversely, it can no longer be assured that the Tories will remain a larger force at Holyrood than Reform UK.  If the Reform momentum continues, who knows, we could end up with a pro-indy majority government and a Faragist opposition.

One possibility that this poll very much does not bring into play, though, is a breakthrough on the Holyrood list for Alba.  The Alba leadership are doing their normal thing of claiming that 5% in a Norstat poll is evidence of a stunning breakthrough, but don't be misled.  There's a house effect in Norstat polls which has been seen since 2021, and which regularly and significantly overstates Alba support.  When Alba are on 5% in a Norstat poll, the likelihood is that their true support is 2% or 3% at most, and that polls from other firms would show that sort of figure.  Don't shoot the messenger here - any other polling analyst would tell you exactly the same.  

Is the increase in Yes support genuine?  It may well be, but I don't think there's enough evidence to say that for sure yet.  The main supporting evidence is that the recent Survation poll for Progress Scotland also showed an uptick in the Yes vote, albeit with No remaining in a small lead.  However, the small Yes lead in the Find Out Now poll a few weeks ago was actually fairly typical for that firm.

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If you haven't yet seen my blogpost of last night, you can read it by following the link here: "BREAKING: It's expulsion - the Alba Party leadership's hypocrisy laid bare as they do EXACTLY to me what they spent Wednesday lambasting the SNP for doing to Angus MacNeil - I have been nominally found guilty of 'secret' charges that I am not allowed to know about and that I frankly do not believe even exist - I will be appealing but I am clearly dealing with kangaroo courts"

Being expelled from a political party due to a blatant vendetta on the part of the leadership is upsetting enough at the best of times, but the exact timing of Corri Wilson's email last night was also mildly inconvenient because I had been just about to sit down and write a blogpost about Nigel Farage's extraordinary surge in the "next Prime Minister" betting markets.  24 hours later than intended, here are the current numbers -

Nigel Farage 3.95
Kemi Badenoch 4.1

Yvette Cooper 15

Wes Streeting 15

Boris Johnson 15.5

Angela Rayner 18.5

Rachel Reeves 32

For the uninitiated, that means Farage, the leader of a party that currently has only five MPs (four fewer than the SNP), is the outright favourite to be Keir Starmer's successor as Prime Minister, and is estimated to have a roughly 25% chance of achieving that feat.  These numbers take into account the possibility of Starmer being replaced by one of his Labour colleagues before the next election, so in practice that means Farage's chances of becoming PM at the time of the next election are rated as a bit higher than 25%.

I've felt for a while that most commentators are underestimating the chances of a Reform government, but I'd have to say the betting markets are going to the other extreme and overstating those chances.  I'm wondering if some punters are still nursing the idea of a Reform-Tory merger with Farage emerging as leader, but I don't think that's at all likely.  For Farage to become PM, Reform would actually have to win the next general election, and I don't see that as anything like a 25% or 30% shot.  Maybe 10% would be a realistic estimate for now, which is plenty grim enough.

When I was growing up, people used to invoke Hitler as a rather improbable argument against proportional representation - ie. first-past-the-post would stop small extremist parties from ever gaining a foothold in parliament.  But now we're seeing the flipside of the coin - once an extremist party becomes a decent size, first-past-the-post makes unfettered power with an outright majority of seats a real possibility for them.  That would be very unlikely to happen under PR.