Sunday, December 22, 2024

"Our Precious Union" could soon be tested to destruction as Opinium poll points to danger of Farage premiership

I'm fairly sure that the Techne poll last week showed Reform UK on an all-time high vote share, and it was undoubtedly the highest figure since the general election.  This week's poll from the same firm shows Reform dropping back a statistically insignificant one percentage point, which still leaves the party with more support than in the vast majority of Techne polls since July.

Meanwhile, this week's Opinium poll shows Reform on a new post-election high watermark of 22%.  Technically, this is not an all-time high, because Reform is legally a direct continuation of the Brexit Party, and Opinium was one of two polling firms (the other was YouGov) that showed an outright lead for the Brexit Party during the late spring and early summer of 2019, with a vote share hitting 26%.  However, 22% is certainly a new high for Reform since the party's rebrand.

GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium, 18th-20th December 2024):

Labour 29% (-)
Conservatives 23% (-2)
Reform UK 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-1)
Greens 10% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

The miniscule one-point gap between the Tories and Reform is the closest Reform have come to overtaking the Tories and moving into second place in any Opinium poll (or any since the Brexit Party days, I mean).

Labour's 29% may look not too bad compared to other recent polls, but in fact it's atrocious on a like-for-like comparison.  Opinium has settled in as the most Labour-friendly pollster since the election, and 29% is the joint-lowest figure so far.  It's only the second time a post-election Opinium poll has shown Labour below 30%.

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44 comments:

  1. Probably my own fault but I've given up trying to get my old 'nom de guerre' accepted - so just another anonymous.
    Farage is too lazy and vain to be another Hitler but he might do as a pound shop Mussolini.

    Time for our independence movement to stop bickering and start campaigning. If we can develop some momentum some of our flaccid politicians will gradually come aboard.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's not hard, just pick the url option and you can call yourself whatever you like. Failing that, you can always sign off your comment with a name at the end.

      Delete
    2. > Time for our independence movement to stop bickering and start campaigning…

      "Why hullo, guid neighbour. I’m a local Yesser here to spread the word. Do you mind holding your door open in the winter wind while I sing the praises of sovereign nationhood to you here at your doorstep? I'd hand you a pamphlet but there isnae one. Nah, I’m just here on ma ain initiative. Naw, there's nothing happening in Holyrood. Aye, you're right the Scottish Government doesnae endorse this message. And a Happy New Year to yourself!"

      Delete
  2. If you want an image of the future think of : Nigel Farage farting in your face for all eternity

    - that is your union. Better together.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Better Together the ultimate reverse truth.

      Delete
    2. We were better together in 2014.
      We’re still better together and always will be better together.

      Delete
    3. Ireland, Norway, Switzerland have GDP in the 600-800B USD range.

      Scotland's is around 200B.

      - so, how much of a fool are you, and why are you so proud of it, and why do you want it to continue?


      Delete
    4. Anon@6:05,
      You obviously somehow think independence is a good idea, so I’d suggest you’re the fool!

      Delete
    5. I want to be rich without listening to the opinions of some damn englishmen - you seem proud of your cuckoldry, it is perverse

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    6. "For a few dollars more" is, of course, a very inspiring form of nationalism.

      Delete
    7. Incredible to point out the success of largely similar nations to Scotland outperforming it.

      Either way, why is Scorland not close to Ireland in terms of gdp either within UK or Independent?

      Clearly held back in some way.

      Delete
    8. What would Ireland GDP likely be if it was still part of the UK.

      I mean it's practically the same country as Scotland without the oil.

      Can a unionist tell us with a straight face they haven't benefited from managing their own affairs, even with a bloody conflict in its north?

      Delete
  3. The National wants to know if we think Nicola Sturgeon should lead the next independence campaign

    My answer to that is a definite YES, if she’d led the 2014 campaign on her own she’d have won it and Scotland would’ve been independent now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. put Lucy Letby in charge of the childrens homes while you are at it

      Delete
    2. Stupid, crass comment, and apart from anything else, Lucy Letby is highly likely to be innocent.

      Delete
    3. I find statistics very powerful - Letby turns up, the bairns start dying like flies; she probably did even more than she got caught for

      you sound like the types who used to campaign for Myra Hindleys release

      Delete
    4. Anon at 6.18: What a disgraceful, bordering on wicked comment. There was no doubt whatever about Myra Hindley's guilt. Anyone with an ounce of common sense who has looked at the facts of the Lucy Letby case has concluded she is probably innocent.

      Delete
    5. Dr Jim at 6.02pm has always been touched by madness but his marbles have done a runner.
      Sturgeon the person who had nearly ten years as FM but didnae even try to get independence would have won it in 2014 on her own according to Jimbo. The one and only leader of the SNP who " misplaced £600k " and now seems to have misplaced her husband as well. Jimbo must think there is an opening there.

      Jimbo wandering through woods howling in the wild " Nicola I love you - Please don't go."

      The local polis saying "now now sir please calm down and come quietly."

      Jimbo says " if you promise not to charge her I'll come quietly"

      To be continued.........................

      Delete
    6. For your own sake, Jimbo, please leave off the glue before you post.🤣🤣🤣

      Delete
    7. Jimbo did the National say when the referendum was happening - was it 19/10/23? Did they say save the date?

      Delete
    8. Jimbo she had ten years. Maybe if she hadn't been involved in 2014 we'd be independent. Sturgeon would be a disaster as a leader for independence because she's no that interested.

      Delete
    9. You’re either a troll or a very silly man, I’d go with the former.
      Only one person could have thrown away the Brexit opportunity with the aplomb the did.
      The very same Sturgeon

      Delete
  4. No way should NS lead the campaign.

    ReplyDelete
  5. You misspelled Opinion in the headline.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hilarious. Please come back every day. Oh, you do anyway.

      Delete
  6. Reform is a political force in England. In Scotland they are small beer, supported by the hard of thinking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In Slovenia they would be called Stranovci. Very apt.

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    2. They will be the king makers in Scotland in all probability.

      Delete
    3. Why the hell is there a Cockney chef spouting drivel on the radio! That's communism for you.

      Delete
  7. The Madness Of Scottish Skier

    Skier says:- " Technically, as things stand, we don't need to campaign for Indy as Scots in majority already support it. Some polls are showing 59% now.
    But no harm in making it as big a yes as possible, and Sturgeon leading the campaign would be great. "

    Jimbo and Skier looney toons.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ah puir Skier , he cannae help it
      The biggest thing he'll ever dee is in his breeks.

      Delete
  8. Not sure she resides in Scotland

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There are the three of them but no shed!

      Delete
  9. Could Ifs and David Francis be the same person?

    Just a thought.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That constitutes a thought in your head? Stay on the meds. There is, thank F, only one IFS, and of course his little helper YIR2. Merry Xmas one and all.

      Delete
    2. Nollaig Chridheil nuair a thig I.

      Delete
    3. Unfortunately, there are plenty anonymites like you anon at 9.15am that contribute zero to SGP apart from personal insults. You then have the cheek to say Merry Xmas to one and all.

      Delete
    4. Anon at 0850

      Agus Bliadhn' Ùr Mhath dhuibh uile.

      Delete
    5. Aw diddums. Hopefully you get a mirror for Xmas. Take time to reflect. You presently come across as a sad angry wee man. You are Negative and fundamentally dishonest but like Scrooge you can change for the better. Give it a go and less of the humbug. And try helping the Indy cause.There’s always a first time. Have a wee Xmas hug.

      Delete
    6. Anon at 12.31. Go raibh maith agat

      Delete
  10. independence for Scotland- do you not realise you are anonymous too!! As for personal insults and venomous comments you are the main culprit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He really cannot take on board either of those points.

      Delete
  11. A bright and early Merry Christmas to all on here!
    Have a great day everyone.......including all the Anon split personalities.
    You know who you are 👍👍👍

    ReplyDelete