Yes, I'm being sarcastic, but where do you even start with a question like this? It's a bit difficult to answer "no" to happiness, health and fairness, and in a way it's quite impressive that 39% of respondents actually did so. The coup de grâce is when they come back at you when you're still pinned to the wall and say "Really? You don't want happiness, health and fairness? OK, what if we chuck in an extra £72.30 a week for your granny? Come on, you're not going to say no to that, SURELY?"
If an independent Scotland meant that Scotland would implement a Wellbeing Economic Approach (a plan that recognises that quality of life, equality, fairness, sustainability, happiness, and health were all economic outcomes that should be given equal weight to growth in economic planning) - how would you vote if there was a Scottish independence referendum tomorrow? (Norstat / Believe in Scotland):
Yes 61%
No 39%
If the Wellbeing Economics Approach (detailed above) also included a commitment to increase the basic state pension from £169.20 to a Wellbeing Pension of £241.50 per week, how would you vote if there was a Scottish independence referendum tomorrow?
Yes 66%
No 34%
Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp clarifies in his breathless write-up that he's not actually proposing to alter the referendum question, which is something of a relief, because I think he might struggle to get the LovelyThings question format approved by the Electoral Commission.
To be serious for a moment, I suppose this is not a completely pointless polling exercise. It doesn't, of course, demonstrate what Gordon claims it demonstrates, or anything even remotely close to what he claims it demonstrates - there would not be a 66% Yes vote with a "Wellbeing" package because you wouldn't be able to ask voters such an epic leading question. However, it does perhaps show that there is no outright hostility to independence among a large majority of the population, and that if you offer them enough lovely things, they won't refuse to even think about it. That does actually matter, because standard polling sometimes gives the impression of an impenetrable unionist bloc vote of 45%+ that is implacably opposed to independence under absolutely all circumstances.
It's also, in fairness, a bit more plausible that offering people a better quality of life could substantially increase the Yes vote than it is that promising to abolish the monarchy would do so. Nevetheless, I think we need to find a somewhat more honest and rigorous way of testing the potential benefit to the Yes campaign of specific policy proposals, because people are just going to start laughing at these novel-length leading questions producing ever-more fantastical Yes supermajorities. I'm almost a bit scared to think of what the next question in this series is going to be.
Unfortunately the wellbeing economy which sounds great in itself, has been tainted by the usual bundling exercise where you're suppoaed to become a wellbeing consumer and pack up Primark and become a vegetarian. Don't believe me? Here it is:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/politics/23740564.scottish-wellbeing-economy-requires-consumers-change-habits/
And you can bet your little cotton socks Better Together 2 will point triumphantly at this to say "Vote NO meat-eaters and anyone on a budget".
We could offer pensioners a one off £100,000 lump sum, and double the state pension they’re currently getting.
ReplyDeleteThat would probably get a few more Yes votes.
Like an ambassador with a flintlock
DeleteDid Believe in Scotland actually spend people's money on that? That seems hard to believe.
ReplyDeleteNot surprising to be frank but sad all the same. This type of polling is being taken seriously on WGD.
ReplyDeleteCapella says:- " More good news! Tidings of great joy. Believe in Scotland has poll result that puts independence on 66% if we want a " Wellbeing Economy". People will vote for that."
This sort of stuff reminds me of the stuff that people like Scotland in Union/These Islands do.
Anon at 11.24am. My my ...........its not only the reindeers that like carrots at Xmas.
ReplyDeleteThe question shows the current ceiling of Yes I think.
ReplyDeleteWhich as you say isn't a pointless exercise
I think it's worth gauging how far the Yes vote could go.
No, to gauge the real ceiling you'd have to offer free holidays to the Seychelles and steamy romps with supermodels.
DeleteKFC at 11.44am can you explain the difference between what you think is bullshit and what you think is nonsense. Or do you just toss a coin.
DeleteWho is KFC?
DeleteThe only KFC I know is Kentucky Fried Chicken!
It's not the same as 2014. It's definitely higher, rarely at 2014 levels, often more than No.
DeleteAnyway, it wasn't intending to find out the Yes of today. It was testing to see how hard the No vote is.
DeleteFairly sure a poll this week had Yes this week at 54%ish?
Delete"Anyway, it wasn't intending to find out the Yes of today. It was testing to see how hard the No vote is."
DeleteThat's a very charitable interpretation of what MacIntyre-Kemp has done and isn't reflected by the grandiose claims he makes in his own article.
Whatever kemps intentions, challenging how hard the no vote is, is a legitimate endeavor .
DeleteThis kind of does that.
Nope, not really. The ridicule his biased question has quite rightly induced will more than outweigh the benefit you're clinging to.
DeleteAn interpretation of the result isn't based on the benefit or ridicule of the question.
DeleteThey're completely separate concepts.
Bizarre point.
Also I'm not "clinging" to anything. I'll happily take stats as they are.
DeleteRather separate to whatever you or anyone else, not least Kemp or Curtice, claims it to be.
It's not stats you're clinging to, ironically, it's your own heroic interpretation of them. How "bizarre".
DeleteJames Kelly has explained in his penultimate paragraph the part of the poll worthy of consideration already without embellishments. Nothing more to add.
DeleteThe Yes movement and the SNP should have been pushing the economic and associated benefits of an independent Scotland since 2014 but have consistently failed to do so. SNP produced lots of wordy papers that no one read, and none of which provided the accessible bullet point information that the electorate respond to. It’s so depressing that the approach needed is being wrapped up in ridiculous poll questions. This approach can only do harm. One final point. I know no one who thinks that there is a staunch 45 % unionist vote that can never be swayed. Look at the Tory vote figures and you will have an approximation of the staunch figure. There already exists a 15% chunk of the labour vote in Scotland that is in principle pro Indy and a further as yet unknown percentage open to being persuaded of the benefits of Indy. None of these figures are in tablets of stone. But there is everything to play for based on the consistent Pro Indy support in or around the 50% mark, and that is pre campaigning. Farage in charge is not yet a certainty, but it is the main risk we now face in Scotland. If Farage gets in, Indy will not only be off the table for the foreseeable future, it will be criminalised.
ReplyDeleteEven more likelihood of 100% Yes when you include don't knows using the Skier methodology. He knows about these things as he's a self professed expert in polling as well as geochemical statistics and anything else you care to mention.
ReplyDeleteCalm down folks.
ReplyDeleteI can understand a bit of scepticism about what GMK is doing, but I think the positives outweigh that.
I think he is doing - in his own way - what needs to be done far more often.
He is looking past the normal, dry, standard question and using these polls to get folk thinking and talking about what Scotland could look like after Independence and the benefits breaking away from overall WM Control might bring.
Anything which helps to do that, if absolutely fine with me.
MORE of that, please.
And I suppose, psychologically, it does chip away at the notion that there is a 'brick wall' of around just 50% ish, which YES ,"will never beat".
Anyway, the poll is now out there and there probably will be more in the same vein before the Scottish Election, so we had better get used to it.
Hyperbolic reactions by a few on here ain't gonna alter that.
Happy Days
Personally I think the true figure in favour of indy is around the 70% mark.
ReplyDeleteNo no no..............that is a hyperbolic reaction anon at 11.53am. The true figure is definitely around the 85% mark and anybody who says otherwise is a Britnat Scrooge.
DeleteKFC you have been fooled since the day you were born.
ReplyDeleteKFC is cooked, fried and frazzled.
DeleteI don't like stuff from Thailand
DeleteThe good thing about that poll though is that it hit the front page of the National, and in my supermarket that's actually in a prominent position staring you in the face. So the headline is "66% for Independence" or something like that.
ReplyDeleteTHAT is worth it. It'll make people think again.
Same for me, was in during the Christmas rush. Saw it there before here
DeleteWouldnt buy a national with a gun to my head but the.headline was prominently placed.
Anybody that’s influenced by that rag is a sandwich short of the full picnic.
DeleteIt got you replying ...
DeleteBring me sunshine
ReplyDeleteIn your smile
Bring me laughter
All the while
In this world where we live
There should be more happiness
So much joy you can give
To our Scottish Independence
It reminds me of the people who said the Union will die if they vote for Brexit. Boris Johnston becomes Prime Minister. The latest one is if Nigel farage becomes PM
ReplyDeleteWhat are you talking about?
DeletePolitical commentators saying their eye is on the ball and everyone else's is off the ball. I didn't see that ball coming until it smacked me right in the face
DeleteAh the evils of drink.
DeleteVote for me and we'll install a third tap in your house, Instant alcohol Delivered straight to your kitchen sink.
DeleteDrink baby drink
Taps aff!!!
DeleteIt looks like a good tactic to me. Recent history has proven that you could tell the People who bother to vote pretty much any kind of nonsense... Aye brilliant I'll vote for that. Then when we get their vote we could turn Scotland into Europe's North Korea or Norway whatever you prefer
ReplyDeleteRing baby. Ring
DeleteWell, duh. There is a point to this, but also, utter vacuousness.
ReplyDeleteThe really creepy, perverse, thing is that 1/3 of people would stay siamese-twinned to the worst people on earth, the world's most criminal country, even if it was provably going to be worse. These folks either speak with excruciating accents and work in Edinburgh's financial district, or have bad tattoos and live in Govan - they either got something out of it, or are just stupid.
Stating the damn obvious :
There is no point to indy if it is going to be worse.
There is no point to indy if you do things exactly the same as the London regime.
So, how do you do things better? Well, on day one you get the full tax take into your treasury, not pocket money. So you have more money.
Once you have your own currency you can finance a massive infrastructure program without going anywhere near the city of london, or external financiers; it is your money, you issue it, not other people who you have to pay interest to.
- this is enough to be getting on with.
The true potential of the scottish economy can be gauged by the GDP figures (which are prepared by the IMF/World Bank, external bodies with no axe to grind) - Norway/Swiss/Ireland have economies 3 times bigger than ours, and yet, arguably, we have far more in the way of real assets than they have. Once you remove chronic mismanagement and exploitation, you can start to fly.
This all assumes a moderately competent, centrist kind of government are in charge; this is not the SNP, who have proved to be a new standard in incompetence, while shagging every rainbow flag they see; the leading shipbuilders can't build ferries, can't even do a bottle return scheme. And while they couldn't organise a pissup in a brewery, they could organise a pride march in a church. It's all they care about, freakshows and pervy sex.
The major reason for independence is to remove the ball and chain of England; it is in a very bad way - it is overpopulated and under-resourced, while we are underpopulated and over-resourced. What do you think will happen? The Scots will be flooded with Anglos and economically raped on a scale unseen. Just wait till they steal the water too; a national water grid could happen. And you were just upset about the theft of oil, gas and electricity? Then the little englander colonists arrive - they are not "new scots", most of them running from an England too "multicultural" and hankering for a country what is still "white". These are not the immigrants you want.
A good tactic for a Scottish independence going forward would be to bring back electricity meters that you can still rig stick a wee coupon in slow down.
ReplyDeleteMake Scotland great again
Any suggestions for a manifesto for a new political party that I'm going to set up in Scotland...
ReplyDeleteIt's going to be called the "New Caledonia party not the one Near Australia"
My ideas I have for the manifesto.
Double the size of square sausages and half the place.
Electricity meters you can still rig.
Free alcohol 6 days a week except Mondays
Now you’re talking.
DeleteThat would give a big boost to Indy support.
And glamping
DeleteSOOOOOO many Grinches on this thread 😂😂😂
ReplyDeleteLighten-up before you explode!
Well said, David. We must all believe in fairy-tale dodgy poll results in the same way we believe in Santa. That's the true spirit of Christmas.
DeleteDown with these Scrooges who seem to want credible polling methodology or something!
I see there’s a new poll out putting support for independence at 73%. It factors in these promises made by the SNP, measures that would be brought in immediately post indy.
ReplyDeleteIncome tax rate reduced to 10% for all, regardless of income.
All social security benefits doubled.
Basic State Pension increased to £25,000 per year.
Free dental treatment for all.
Free condoms for all.
Fuel duty abolished.
Alcohol duty abolished.
Road tax abolished.
No MOT required til cars are 15 years old.
Tobacco duty slashed.
A free iPhone and iPad for all on benefits.
Free line rental and broadband for all on benefits.
To requirement for people on benefits to look for work if they don’t want to.
It will never work Any freebies must be universal else it will cost too much
DeleteNew Caledonia party not the one Near Australia.
ReplyDeleteThat's the problem that I have with old independence parties no fresh thinking.
If you Scot are you looking for a way forward please donate to you the New Caledonia party not the one nearest Australia.
Your donations to China street outer Mongolia any donations are welcome I will Be spending the money on a bus stroke camper Van at the weekends.
Votes will be held next week for a general secretary to help me with the spelling.
Thanks
Hard to tell who is hyperventilating most on this one - the VERY obvious Anon Yooners or the angry wee Albaists 😁😁😁
ReplyDeleteDifficult to tell them apart, to be perfectly honest...............
Kemi Badenoch. She's the kind of leader We need in the New Caledonia party not only one near Australia. She looks like she wouldn't just take the milk off the children she would actually pull their teeth out to save money on dental care. Oh and she hot🔥
DeleteIf you want Business For Scotland to keep entertaining you in 2025 then buy me a Ko-Fi.
DeleteThe level of debate here is not far above the sewer now.
DeleteThe censorious nature of it means wee dafties just comment like the above as there's no point in real debate.
I'm done with the comments. Waste of time
Anon at 5.01: You. Are. Such. A. Grinch.
DeleteI deplore the censorious behaviour that I'm seeing.
DeleteTrying to work out the maximum Yes vote out there has been an interest of mine for a while, and its friend "how hard is the No vote"?
ReplyDeleteI've often wondered if "all things being equal" and "if nothing would greatly change" would Scots prefer independence?
I think they would.
There's little real love for the union.
Hard to find out but worth knowing how many are reachable.
An ovenglove probably.
DeleteIf doubling the state pension is what it takes to get independent then I say we go for it! Work out how we afford it later, because we should be better off all round anyway
ReplyDeleteThat's a bit naive. You wouldn't be able to achieve the Believe in Scotland type numbers because "doubling the state pension" wouldn't be on the ballot paper. And unless you could nail down where the money was coming from, it would be counter-productive - the Yes campaign would be painted as fantasists at best and snake oil salesmen at worst.
DeleteWe've got one of the worst state pensions in Europe so should be able to give a few sweeteners given we're also not the poorest.
DeleteThat's such an unfair comment. Polling is what we have to guide us on how Yes is progressing. As James rightly points out, if we're just going to pose daft convoluted questions to deliberately skew the result in our favour we're doing nobody, least of all ourselves, any flavours at all.
ReplyDeleteVery encouraging poll, as “Scottish” Labour basically ran on a very similar manifesto at the General Election and only managed 35% of the vote 😇
ReplyDeleteOur chum in Bath won't like these polling results. Merry Xmas a'body !
ReplyDeleteTwo thirds of Scotland would vote for independence is the big news of today, but strangely BBC Scotland and STV news broadcasters didn’t seem to get that news, which is highly significant by the absence of the broadcasters reporting it, and when you consider those same broadcasters are always terribly keen to report such news if the opposite direction is ever shown in polling, this news becomes even more significant
DeleteBoth of these organisations are the embodiment of British loyalism, so in fact totally unrepresentative of the public at large’s opinions in Scotland
Oddly enough those, “ahem”, real independence supporters seem very annoyed that this poll rather demonstrates somewhat of a renewed faith in John Swinney’s SNP
Are those *real* independence supporters really *real* or as many of us believe, not!
Is this really Dr Jim? Surely he wouldn't actually call himself "Jimbo in the Wild"? And yet he talks like Dr Jim?
DeleteIt's Dr Jim words. He posts the same on WGD. Jimbo as ever takes a % vote for independence and wrongly equates that with the SNP/John Swinney.
DeleteGive Bath boy some credit. He attracts and contains the mouth frothing element of the Indy movement and a fair number of the long term funded unionist trolls, although a number of them are appearing here as well with increasing frequency. The btl on WOS would be hilarious if those posting didn’t mean it. His actual following continues to reduce in number, with his hit numbers actually being made up largely by a small number of cult followers who go on his blog multiple times each day. Think IFS on here multiplied by ten and you get the idea.
DeleteAnon at 8.48am - fingers slip again. Back to trolling me as an anon again David Francis. Did you get your tattoo of 19/10/23 on the back of your hand for Xmas to remind you how big a mug you have been believing Sturgeon's gang. I would tell you to get a tattoo on the other hand stating how many years it has been since Sturgeon first promised Indyref2 but you would have to keep changing it as every new year comes along. Never mind you got some Xmas carrots from GMK to munch on. Do they taste the same as the SNP carrots? Makes a change I suppose.
DeleteYou are indirectly referred to in passing. No trolling. Were I inclined to troll, which I am not, you are not worth the effort. Let’s remember that by your own admission you have never done anything to help the Indy cause. Quite the contrary. You are an Indy non-entity. So off you go back to your room, and your keyboard. Maybe mummy will make you a wee cup of tea.
DeleteI think most folk will treat these BfS polls as merely additional info to those posing the standard Indy Question.
ReplyDeleteI also think that additional info being widely dissemenated is an unboubtedly good, thing in respect of undecided voters who do not inhabit sites like this.
Let's also remember that the 'other side' - like SiU - have been using non-standard, convoluted and leading poll questions for many years, to try to convince Scottish Voters that support for Independence was dying on its feet.........and that negativity was frequently and eagerly picked up by the Anti-Indy MSM to further enforce that impression.
And that negative impression has also frequently been picked up by those very undecideds we badly need to vote Yes, which dampens their enthusiasm for doing so.
Gratifying, therefore, to see a distinctively positive framing of Indy getting out there.
We need MORE of this, not less.
I see this too... Offer pensioners a significant extra amount each week guaranteed and I think they'll flock to a yes vote because with some people in Scotland it's always been about 'What's in it for me'
ReplyDeleteAnd if we guarantee things on the run up to an indy vote it could deliver independence more comfortably
After all that's what London labour did to get into office and it worked and leave camp in Brexit and it worked
It will work for us too
The difference here is if we promise things we MUST deliver as quickly as possible
On worthwhile state pensions and so many other areas, we NEED to keep reinforcing all the positives that can ONLY come with Independence - because, as Labour has just amply demonstrated, they cannot and will not come from Westminster.
DeleteIf the end-game for us is to try to match the better societal outcomes of our Northern European neighbours, we MUST consistently state what those are and that they are NORMAL and realistic for an Indy Scotland to achieve.
David at 7.33pm - I agree with that post. Been saying the same on SGP for years. Where I differ from you and what you fail to address is why are the SNP not doing this. You claim to be an SNP member so why is it not happening? If you are a member it's also you who are not doing this! Can't say I have ever heard any SNP politician mention Norway's trillion pound wealth fund, for example.
DeleteI remember many years ago Scottish Skier used to punt the idea on SGP that independence supporters should just lie about all things like Britnats. He punted - they do it so should we.
ReplyDeleteDavid Francis seems to have picked up the Skier baton and is starting to run with it. " we need more of this not less".
Strange and inconsistent character Skier. While he had no qualms/morals about punting any lies he thinks will benefit independence he thought it was extremely unfair to try and game the Holyrood voting system. Anything but a proper proportional representation of votes was just not cricket ( as Britnats and Skier might say ) and therefore Both Votes SNP was the only fair and just way to vote.
Where does David say we should lie? He doesn’t. What does that mean you have just done? Were you not called out for lying last week as well? You do Indy no favours, but perhaps that’s your intention?
ReplyDeleteAnon at 8.38am - he wants more propaganda. See his post at 6.20pm. No I was not called out for lying last week just some anon troll with limited intelligence spouting nonsense - is that you? Where do I say Francis is lying ? Is propaganda lying? Do you want loads of lying propaganda like the Britnats?
DeleteIs your position that you are fine with your lies but lies by anyone else, even imagined ones, are not acceptable. What does that make you?
Is the new SNP slogan to be lying for Scotland? Does that do Indy any favours? Do you? Perhaps that's your intention?
What SNP branch is David Francis a member of? Do you know since you jump to defend him?
Are you David Francis with slippery fingers again?
Yet again you deny what is there in black and white for all to see. The alternative is that you are so irredeemably stupid you do not actually understand what you are saying in your own posts. That’s a possibility. Be honest and civil and drop the keyboard warrior nonsense. Off you go and see what’s in your Xmas stocking. Silly billy boy. No Xmas pudding for you. Santa is very annoyed with you.
Delete