Fresh misery for Labour in Scotland as SNP storm back into the lead in *Westminster* voting intentions, according to sizzling new Survation survey

Progress Scotland have been impressively fast in getting the data tables up for their new Survation poll - faster than Survation themselves, as it happens.  Probably the most important news is that the SNP have broken out of their deadlock with Labour in the only other post-election Survation poll (conducted in September), and now have a clear lead in Westminster voting intentions.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Survation/Progress Scotland, 1st-15th November 2024)

SNP 31% (-)

Labour 28% (-3)

Conservatives 15% (+1)

Reform UK 13% (+2)

Liberal Democrats 6% (-3)

It's a similar story on the Holyrood constituency ballot - the SNP and Labour were level in the previous Survation poll and the SNP now have a clear lead, although the swing is bigger than on the Westminster ballot.  On the Holyrood list, the small SNP lead remains unchanged from the previous poll, although that doesn't prevent the constituency swing improving the SNP's showing on the all-important seats projection.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 32% (+1)

Labour 27% (-4)

Conservatives 14% (+1)

Reform UK 10% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)

Greens 6% (-)

Alba 1% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 27% (-1)

Labour 25% (-1)

Conservatives 15% (+1)

Reform UK 11% (+1)

Greens 10% (-)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)

Alba 3% (-)

Seats projection: SNP 42, Labour 34, Conservatives 18, Reform UK 14, Liberal Democrats 11, Greens 10

So the 'mainstream' unionist parties would have 63 seats in combination, two short of an overall majority.  The pro-independence parties would be well behind on 52, but in my view the SNP as the largest single party would be well-placed to cling on as some sort of minority government, given the difficulty Labour would face in cobbling together a coalition involving both the Tories and Reform UK.  Even if they were prepared to destroy their own credibility by attempting that, I doubt if Reform UK would play ball, or not without naming an impossible price.

It's noteworthy that the replacement of Douglas Ross with Russell Findlay hasn't had a transformative effect on Tory fortunes - at best Findlay has very slightly steadied the ship - and Reform UK remains a bigger problem for him than for anyone else.  Alba are once again flatlining at a level that would be unlikely to win them any list seats at all, a fact that isn't really compatible with the repeated claims from the party leadership that they're making big breakthroughs and closing in on multiple list seats.  It's true that Alba's by-election results have become more respectable in recent weeks, but they've done that by choosing their battles and concentrating their resources.  It's not really any indication that their underlying support has increased nationally.

Although the headline result from the poll was a non-standard, multi-option question on Scotland's constitutional future, the standard Yes/No question on independence was also asked, and the results lend some support to the evidence that there may have been a recent uptick in Yes support.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 48% (+2)

No 52% (-2)