Labour are fibbing yet again on Twitter - they're claiming to have "gained" three Glasgow City Council seats in by-elections yesterday, whereas in fact they were defending all three seats, and in two of the three wards they had even won the popular vote in 2022 (at a time when the SNP were still well ahead nationally).
Maryhill by-election result on first preference votes (21st November 2024):
Labour 35.9% (+1.9)
SNP 29.2% (-12.9)
Reform UK 12.7% (n/a)
Greens 12.1% (-0.2)
Alba 4.2% (n/a)
Conservatives 3.2% (-5.0)
Liberal Democrats 2.7% (+0.3)
SNP 29.2% (-12.9)
Reform UK 12.7% (n/a)
Greens 12.1% (-0.2)
Alba 4.2% (n/a)
Conservatives 3.2% (-5.0)
Liberal Democrats 2.7% (+0.3)
Drumchapel & Anniesland by-election result on first preference votes (21st November 2024):
Labour 34.3% (-3.8)
SNP 26.3% (-11.6)
Reform UK 12.8% (n/a)
Independent - Kerr 9.4% (+4.2)
Greens 8.3% (+2.3)
Conservatives 5.8% (-3.7)
Liberal Democrats 2.9% (+1.3)
Glasgow North-East by-election result on first preference votes (21st November 2024):
Labour 34.3% (-9.7)
SNP 32.2% (-10.4)
Reform UK 18.3% (n/a)
Conservatives 5.4% (-3.3)
Greens 4.2% (+1.2)
TUSC 3.7% (+2.5)
Liberal Democrats 2.0% (n/a)
Although the SNP vote is significantly down in all three wards, what matters as always is the swing from SNP to Labour, and in only one case (Maryhill) would that be sufficient to just about put Labour ahead nationally. The average swing across the three wards is just 3.9%, which assuming a uniform national swing would point to a national SNP lead over Labour of approximately 4.5% - pretty much bang in line with what the new full-scale Scottish poll from Survation shows.
However, there was also a by-election in Fort William & Ardnamurchan yesterday, and the votes have yet to be counted, so we'll wait to see if that one shows anything radically different.
One thing that's striking about the results we do have so far is the consistency with which Reform UK seem to be leaving the Tories in their wake in Glasgow. During Ruth Davidson's leadership there may have been hope for some sort of limited Tory renaissance in the city, but the Reform UK factor seems to have snuffed that out completely, at least for the foreseeable future. Reform are now very much the party of the right-wing vote in Glasgow.
The drop in the SNP's vote looks to have gone straight to Reform. Interesting that it's SNP voters going for them, rather than Labour's.
ReplyDeleteGot to expect a significant presence for Farage's bunch in Holyrood in 2026. Quite what they will look and act like…
I doubt if SNP voters went to Reform more than Labour voters did. It's probably a more complex picture, with Labour gaining votes from the SNP but losing some in the other direction to Reform.
DeleteMad as it may sound to some, I think there is some sympathy in proYes, former SNP circles for a less jolly-happy-clappy policy on immigration which is seeing Scotland's streets look quite different to even in 2014. That's not to say people are in favour of Reform's more radical agenda on it but maybe see it as a protest vote.
DeleteAgreed, James. All we can really see are net changes, not individual voters changing minds. That said, the pattern is at least quite consistent across Glasgow: Labour steady, SNP falling and Reform rising by that same amount. It’s looking like a trend.
Delete@12:31. Reform’s message seems, on the face of to, to be worlds apart from the all embracing optimism of 2014. But whenever forget that independence is as radical as it gets. There’s a good chunk of folk who just want REAL CHANGE and will do whatever it takes.
Autocorrect mangled my message there! Hopefully still legible. 😅
DeleteNo. You can't say the pattern is consistent and then claim Labour are steady in Glasgow. In the three wards, Labour have seen a modest increase in support in one, a modest decrease in one, and a very sharp decrease in one - a drop of almost ten percentage points in the North East ward.
DeleteI've noticed a lot of progressive voices, left wing people not so keen on the "progressive" immigration policy of late, albeit not against immigration per se. Don't see it as fair. I'm not sure what I think. I'm not as happy clappy about it as I used to be.
DeleteThere are left wing nationalist, pro working class parties in Germany and Catalonia developing.
Another very good night for the SNP. Showing real signs that we are back in business big time. IFS will be absolutely raging at these results
ReplyDeleteDr Jim @ 10.44
DeleteDeclan the clown 🤡.
DeleteMaryhill SNP DOWN 12.9
Drumchapel SNP DOWN 11.6
Glasgow north east SNP DOWN 10.4
Not raging just laughing at Declan the not so ACE forecaster.
Declan the not so ACE forecaster who forecast the SNP would get more than 40 MPs in July - the SNP got 9. Levels of propaganda and delusion normally associated with Scottish Skier.
I'm sorry to have to agree with the ever-hysterical Independence for Scotland character but she does have a point about those falls in the SNP vote. Unlike unionist stalwartess IfS, I think this is a matter for concern because, as things stand, the SNP is the only party likely to secure independence.
DeleteAnon at 11.18pm says " I think this is a matter for concern" - you are years late. I've been saying that for years on SGP. Not very bright are you but that is par for the course for House Jocks
DeleteA rather histrionic response filled with drama and hysteria of the kind usually associated with Liberace and some of the characters played by Kenneth Williams. "Dear IfS, you are awful... but I like you!"
Delete" Hysterical - histrionic - hysteria " - you like your words beginning with H - here is another HOUSE jock and that's you.
DeleteThis is all good because Scotland can only be made better if people vote for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteLOL
DeleteDr Jim @ 10.56
DeletePlease pardon my ignorance, but could it be possible that supporters of different parties have a different view on the importance of voting in Council elections? I'm getting on a bit but I have never voted in them and I don't think I know anyone who has. Maybe I'm being daft but I'm just wondering if eg Labour voters are more likely than others to vote in Council elections and thereby distort the appearance of support for each party?
ReplyDeleteWhere are the constituencies which the SNP should be winning. Appreciate these are Labour holds even in the good SNP times, but I'd like to see the SNP actually win something before claiming we're ahead.
ReplyDeleteSeem to be seeing a broadly 10% reduction in the SNP vote from 2022.
On a positive note, you'd like to think much of the Green and Alba votes would go SNP in a proper constituency election.
Andrew Baxter won that seat and though LibDem again, is as independent as it gets. Nobody tells him how to vote, even the Independents. And that's how it should be, in an ideal world.
ReplyDeleteMmm, this sounds about right :-)
Deletehttps://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/highland-council-independent-group-slammed-for-ejecting-councillor-andrew-baxter-for-being-too-independent-204827/
I suspect he could stand for the fig leaf party or the free parking party and get elected. If I lived there I'd vote for him even if he joined Reform!
My family are from Kinlochleven and voted for him
DeleteThe Reform result is interesting because their actual voting percentage isn't all that different from the polls in your previous post.
ReplyDeleteIf they put a lot of effort into candidate selection for Holyrood 2026 then it looks as though they will do well. That would be massive shame.
From the National polling and Glasgow council by elections is it possible to say who would suffer on the Glasgow list? I'm thinking that the Tories and Greens lose out big with the Reform vote at its current level..
I’ve been saying for a while that the list is going to be a bloodbath thanks to Reform’s arrival. Those dozen seats or so of theirs must all come from somewhere. The Greens could well get shafted. Quite possible for their vote to rise (as the polls say) but their Holyrood group to shrink.
DeleteThis makes the constituencies that much more attractive. Whoever wins most of those is spared the squeeze on the list seats.
This suggests that John Swinney is definitely doing a good job after a running start.
ReplyDeleteSettling into the rôle.
DeleteLoves speaking about conference pears.
DeleteHe gave a great peach.
DeleteOuch!
DeleteAnas Sarwar voted Scottish politician of the year.
ReplyDeleteVery few would argue with that.
Sureness of touch.
DeleteIf you are a Brit Nat sure.
DeleteYou’re just new to the meme, I’ll forgive you.
DeleteTop House Jock award for Sarwar. Top liar Sarwar. The 1000+ jobs
DeleteIn Aberdeen re GB Energy now down to only 200 and who would bet against it going lower. Labour also said they would reduce energy bills by £300. Bills went up this year and are forecast to go up again in January and then April again. Sarwar top liar. No austerity said " read my lips branch manager Sarwar". Winter fuel payment for pensioners removed. Top liar Sarwar.
You have to be a right diddy or a complete House Jock to have voted for Top Liar Sarwar. House Jocks just love selling out their country to England for some crumbs from their masters table.
Desperate stuff from Ifs.
DeleteYou would say that KC at 4.52pm as you are a House Jock.
DeleteSNP second and got 25% in the Lochaber by election
ReplyDeleteLib Dem got 58%
There’s Scotland, and then there’s Lib Dem enclaves in Scotland where everything is in reverse. I live in one of those myself, in Edinburgh, so know the pattern well. Going by what happened the other week in Fairmilehead, Edinburgh South could be joining lalaland as well.
DeleteI thought Alba would do a bit better in Maryhill . Nick Durie was working hard.
ReplyDeleteReform got three times the Alba vote and Reform stood in all three wards polling on average about 14%. This is the correct strategy to win list seats. For example Reform got more than 1000 votes to go towards the votes needed for a list seat whereas Alba standing in only one ward got only 118 votes
The Reform strategy of standing in nearly every byelection will help them win list MSPs
They have strength geographically giving them list seats in Glasgow with the working class exLabour SNP vote and they will get votes in Tory areas such as Aberdeenshire
Farage will have learnt from the Trump playbook and will likely run on
Immigration
Cost of living
Crime
End to wokeness
And a of course anti-EU
Very old Labour and will appeal to that constituency.
The hope and possibilities of the indyref, has changed after a decade of being ignored and treated with contempt, seeing their lives get harder and opportunities fewer anger will drive the working class into the arms of Reform.
Holyrood 26 will likely be a very unstable parliament without a natural majority
30-40 SNP
30-40 Labour
30-40 Reform /Tory
10-20 Green / LibDem
That’s why the SNP needs game players such as Flynn in the parliament because it will be a very tricky time
Yes I agree there is a constituency out there for Reform. A lot of people are tired of condescending elites and the rapid changes in social issues.
DeleteWhat Reform have now is a credibility they can win seats. Alba may have had that but their first election just did not work out and they've been on the back foot ever since.
People will protest with Reform believing there vote might actually count. Whereas potentially a similar person who may vote Alba, doesn't believe their vote will count.
Tricky.
Labour and SNP grand coalition is defo on the cards. I mean, what actually separates them now anyway?
DeleteReform also have a broad appeal on a variety of issues whereas Alba are pretty much just seen as an alternative independence party in a time when the electorate don't believe independence is going to happen anytime soon & thus are prioritising those other issues impacting their daily lifes.
DeleteI assume the only ALBA MSP will not be elected then?
ReplyDeleteThat would be a first!
DeleteAlba need to start smelling the coffee pronto, only a pro Indy coalition
ReplyDeleteScotlands Dream or something similar can make the list work for independence anything else IFS Alba or whatever is going precisely nowhere
Not going to happen.
DeleteWhat is a “pro Indy coalition” without the SNP’s endorsement? And what on earth would convince them to support it?
Hint: “for independence’s sake” is not a valid answer to this devolutionist bunch of seat warmers.
Genuinely impressed by SNP under Swinney these days. Was Labour now SNP.
ReplyDeleteLet’s be honest, the time has come to give up in independence.
ReplyDeleteNot happening.
Let’s be honest, the time has come to give up on the union. Not lasting.
Delete