Well, if you needed any evidence that the betting markets are not some sort of predictive God, or that sudden movements on them are not proof that punters have inside knowledge, here it is (yet again). Robert Jenrick dropped like a stone on the markets earlier, probably on the logic that James Cleverly had enormous momentum behind him after his performance at the party conference (and in yesterday's ballot), and that Jenrick supporters would defect to Badenoch to stop Cleverly. That actually was a reasonable enough assumption, but it hasn't happened.
Kemi Badenoch 42
Robert Jenrick 41
Robert Jenrick 41
James Cleverly 37
I can't say I'm sorry about Cleverly's elimination, because in a field of insufferable candidates I find him the most insufferable of the lot, but this does mean that whatever happens from here the Tories will once again be choosing a radical right leader, as they did so successfully with Liz Truss two years ago. Unless Badenoch stumbles badly, it seems highly likely that she'll be the winner, and I suppose the one consolation is that she's known for her gender critical views - but she's an extremist on many other issues.
On the ECHR issue, which I think might ultimately have a decisive role to play in Scotland becoming independent, Jenrick is committed to withdrawal and Badenoch says it "might" be necessary to withdraw.
I wonder if Allison Pearson's stroppy column threatening to defect to Reform UK if Cleverly won, and other contributions like hers, may have played a part in Tory MPs' mysterious last minute cold feet about Cleverly.
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I loved Alison Pearson on Great British Bake Off. I must try some of her recipes.
ReplyDeleteApologies for being off topic.
ReplyDeleteApparently the most recent average PABW polling on independence is, Yes 55% No 45%. This is the widest gap since late 2020 (when it was Yes 57% No 43%).
Clearly from my perspective as a lifelong unionist this isn’t great, but not disastrous. If we’re being honest, I think most of us would agree, given the catastrophic start the Labour government have made, it’s actually remarkable that support for independence hasn't yet risen above 65%.
Clutching at straws there, I fear, Lifelong Unionist. Yes 55% No 45% is a grim average for Blighty Backers like you and I.
DeleteOn reflection you're probably right.
DeleteEat your cereal.
DeleteDoesn't yer Maw need to make your supper before bed? Better not keep her waiting.
DeleteMe, I'm touchy, touchy you
DeleteMe, I'm touchy, and you know what to do
Me, I'm touchy, touchy, touchy you
Me, I'm touchy, and you know what to do
Touch me, how can it be?
DeleteBelieve me, the sun always shines on TV
Hold me close to your heart
Touch me and give all your love to me
To me
Jeez, A-ha were obsessed with touching, weren't they?
DeleteWhat is this "Poll and Bang We" that you keep mentioning?
DeleteI am astounded that Cleverly was eliminated today. Out of the three I thought he was the only half sensible one.
ReplyDeletePerhaps the MPs didn't trust the membership to faff it up this time all by themselves.
DeleteWell this is positive, now whoever wins the contest, there won't be any Conservative boost in Scotland
ReplyDeleteThe question then becomes "which weighs heavier in Tory hearts: ideology or race?"
ReplyDeleteYou've got to suspect a few of their elder ranks must feel they've had "quite enough minorities already" what with the Indian fellow and the catastrophic bird.
All Jenrick has to do is up his swivel game a bit and he's got this in the bag!
You've got to suspect a few of their elder ranks must feel they've had "quite enough minorities already" what with the Indian fellow and the catastrophic bird.
DeleteWhat minority is Liz Truss a member of? Asperger's sufferers?
She's a former Liberal Democrat, you can't get much more niche than that.
DeleteWtf
ReplyDeleteThe slither to the right continues in western politics. Starmer is floundering.
ReplyDeleteIf recent polls are correct about levels of YES support then we have an opportunity to push for self determination. Personally I don't think that, for now, it should concentrate on parties - ours are pretty much of a mess too although, thankfully, a less poisonous and 'fascist adjacent' mess.
Build the movement and reform the quasi independence parties by making our movement strong enough to make them court it with appropriate changes in policy priorities.
But where are we? The whole movement evaporated this last year…
DeleteDr Jim promotes violence on WGD.
ReplyDeleteDr Jim says:- " The people who continue to vote for English political parties should stand at the ends of their streets so the rest of us can throw rocks at them for what they've just done, ........."
Jimbo has been peppering his posts on WGD for some time now advocating violence to a range of people. Advocating stoning Britnats as a punishment for how they vote shows a violent extremist mentality of the medieval religious extremist type but Kavanagh continues to allow this to continue and others btl like his posts.
Grow up you tosspot.
Delete