The batch of three GB-wide polls that I mentioned the other day were ominous for Starmer, because they showed Labour had lower percentage support than under Jeremy Corbyn in the crushing 2019 defeat. But at least they still showed Labour in the 30s, and with a cushion of sorts over the Tories. Neither of those things are true in the new More In Common poll, which has the worst results for Labour in years and years.
More In Common GB-wide poll:
Labour 29%
Conservatives 28%
Reform UK 19%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Greens 7%
SNP 2%
Now that we've seen a poll that is a "statistical tie", it's surely only a matter of time until some poll somewhere along the line shows an outright Tory lead. It's also possible that once the Tories get into the lead, they could stay there throughout much of the course of this parliament, building a clear expectation of a change of government in 2028 or 2029 - that would be in line with the logic of Labour having got off to such a record-breaking awful start in government. But clearly much will depend on whether the Tories elect a leader who the public regard as credible. And on that subject, the result of the penultimate MPs' ballot has just been announced -
James Cleverly 39
Robert Jenrick 31
Kemi Badenoch 30
Tom Tugendhat 20
I suggested on Sunday that Jenrick supporters might look at the ConHome poll, which showed that Badenoch was the only person who could beat Cleverly in the members' run-off, and reluctantly switch to Badenoch on a tactical basis. It looks like that may have happened to a very small extent, because Jenrick has lost two votes and Badenoch has gained three. There had been chatter that maybe Jenrick might "lend" some votes to Tugendhat to try to engineer a Jenrick v Tugendhat run-off, which the poll suggested was the only winnable scenario for Jenrick. But that was never going to work, because Jenrick simply didn't have enough votes in hand to get both himself and Tugendhat over the line.
So the only real question now is whether a few more Jenrick supporters might defect to Badenoch, because if they don't, Cleverly will probably sail to victory.
* * *
SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER 2024: I took a prolonged break from promoting the fundraiser during the general election period, but I'll have to make some serious progress over the coming days and weeks if the blog is to remain viable. Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far. Card donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE, or direct donations can be made via Paypal. My Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
James, don't know if you've seen the latest PollAndBangWe results on independence?
ReplyDeleteYes 57%
No 43%
A bumper sample size of 4500 too. As a lifelong unionist, I am deeply concerned.
Me too. That's ghastly. Hard to accept.
DeletePABW tend to be one of the more accurate companies too.
DeleteDebatable. They did well in 2019, less so in 2024. Still, that's a hell of a lead for Yes.
DeleteCan't argue with that. Wish I could.
DeleteNot going to comment on their accuracy, but I very much admire PABW's ethics as a company, especially their commitment to Net Zero. Other polling companies could learn from them.
DeleteHear, hear.
DeleteJESUS this is depressing.
DeleteCan't the servants do something to stop those ghastly Jockos?
DeleteSerious question: Why the need to pretend to be unionists?
DeleteNo actual unionist would ever actually comment "As a lifelong unionist, I am deeply concerned" they would just laugh it off as an outlier.
Fool Britannia! Come on lads and lasses cheer on the union. Land o Dope and Tory!
DeleteBloody cheek. Quite clearly you wouldn't know a unionist if you tripped over one.
DeleteI can confirm that Lifelong Unionist is a unionist. Very disappointing to see him questioned in this way.
DeleteThank you for the support, Backing Blighty, it's much appreciated.
DeleteAre you done having a conversation with yourself?
DeleteThat's OK, Lifelong Unionist, any time. Hopefully one day we'll see some bluebirds over the White Cliffs of Dover.
DeleteWith all the flooding in England I suspect in a hundred years time you are more likely to see a lot more ducks and swans, rather than bluebirds, in the large lake called England.
DeleteEasy come, sleazy go.
ReplyDeleteMy relentless troll who despite posting I should be ignored now posts this on WGD.
ReplyDeletesman1957 says:- " O/T but Scotgoespop has turned into a cesspit of Unionist rhetoric. Anti SNP, anti SG, anti N S, pro Alba and pro A S ?
How many things can James Kelly get wrong? His blog has been hijacked by an absolute muppet troll IFS, who has declared openly that he has never done anything to support Indy. And Kelly is openly supporting him, deleting posts highlighting the lies and disinformation of IFS. Sad day for what was once a reliable go to for the poll interpretation. So few reliable blogs left. RIP SGP. "
This guy is a barefaced liar. I have never declared openly that I have never done anything to support Indy. The troll seems to think if you just keep repeating a lie you can by some sort of troll magic make it true.
James, he disnae seem to like you deleting his posts. Can't say out of all the posts the anon (sman1957) makes on SGP ( and that's a lot) I have ever seen one from him actually highlighting any disinformation - just ad hom attacks on me like ya wee sad ......
Even makes you nostalgic for the likes of Hamish100 and Jack Collatin who no longer post on SGP.
Now yesindyref2 is posting a lot on WGD at present. I don't expect him to defend me but will he defend SGP or just let it stand.
Is that the persistent troll from the Israel post? He actually accused me of *being* you a couple of hours ago, he's completely and utterly lost the plot. As for the complaints about "pro-Alba" and "pro-Salmond", what does it take for the penny to drop with these people? Have they not noticed that Chris McEleny has started potential expulsion proceedings against me? I haven't exactly made a secret of it.
DeleteThe guy is a complete bampot who disnae let any facts get in the way of what he wants to post. It is weird this obsession the trolls have as to who I am. It seems they cannae just accept I am an ordinary Scot who wants Scotland to be independent. I have no allegiance to any party or individual and I express my own views. As you know I have never met or spoken to you just the same with Salmond and Campbell.
DeleteI'm a bit put out that he missed out the anti Swinney point. 😀 So just to get the message across to the troll John REDACTOR MAN Swinney is guilty of helping cover up Sturgeon's misdeeds. Despite the Information Commisioner refusing the Scotgov appeal they (Swinney) continue to spend public money on lawyer fees to try and avoid publishing info re the Inquiry in to Sturgeon's persecution of Salmond. A disgrace when the Scotgov are crying out we have no money we need cuts in spending. This statement is of course my opinion not the SGP blog. The troll disnae seem to have the intellect to discern the difference.
"pro Alba and pro A S"
DeleteWhat comment section have they been reading?
You're one of the few who does make the case for Indy when a Unionist posts here something like "Scotland can't afford Indy" or some such garbage. James writes honest articles, and I've posted the OMOV thing elsewhere - about the SNP. The expensive overnight stay conference at the ends of the universe minority delegate thing is totally anti-democratic.
DeleteJust have confidence in yourselves. Let the yappers yap. And marvel at your good luck that you're not - them - with their futile lives and non-existent powers of original thought.
So far the bampot troll posting as sman1957 on WGD is being ignored. Not one person agreeing or disagreeing.
DeleteUpdate: Dr Jim picks it up. Jimbo who is too cowardly to post his comments as Dr Jim on SGP has plenty to say about SGP and none of it positive yet he is always posting on SGP as anon. I wonder what his heroine Sturgeon would say about his past actions in boasting about physically assaulting women.
DeleteIFS. Seek help and get a life. No actual response? James must love you, or are you rewarded for your multiple posts?
DeleteHi Idiot for Scotland. The post on WGD wasn’t intended to elicit a response there. I’ll let you work out the rest for yourself. I really need to put you lot in a bigger deeper barrel. This is just too easy.
DeleteIFS at 11.53. Are you really this dumb?
DeleteAnon at 6.23. He has confirmed it. He just doesn’t realise.
DeleteApparently, the response to the Tory leadership pat the shuttlecock contest was so low and yawnful, they had to change the question to:
ReplyDelete"Which of these candidates do you find the least boring and useless?"
The result of this one was on the news; what they don't tell you is when they say 39%, what they actually mean is 39 votes. Yes, that's right, only 100 people bothered to vote at all.
Meanwhile Starmer has been seen practicing Riverdance wearing a donated outfit in the hopes of being picked for Strictly. Sarwar was standing there with his mouth open clapping like the gommouge he is.
Swinney moaning today about the Britnats not playing fair about devolution. The bad Britnats devolved the winter fuel allowance then decided at the last minute to bin it meaning the Scotgov disnae get any money. The devolutionalist Swinney not happy about how devolution works. The bad Britnats acting bad - what a surprise Swinney. It may be a surprise to you Swinney but independence is the answer. You know what the SNP was created to achieve. It wisnae created so you could moan about devolution.
ReplyDeleteOoh the banter! yer such a scary wee Tory tosser
DeleteAnon ( Dr Jim) at 12.15am - I see on WGD your love of violence has broken out now to supporting the IDF murdering children in Gaza. What was you said yourself - oh that's right you would do the same if you were the IDF. I never thought I was scary but you certainly are. So to summarise for you Jimbo I am neither scary, nor wee, nor a Tory tosser. For such a short sentence you manage to get so much wrong. You on the other hand come across as a violent psychopath.
DeleteKC - a straightforward question to you. If you are so convinced you are in the majority why are Britnats so desperate to avoid Indyref2?
DeleteBetter Together has consisted of 14 years of Tory austerity and corruption now being followed by x years of Labour austerity and corruption. Not to mention a year of facilitating the murder of 17,000 Palestinian children by both parties. If that is your idea of better then I pity you.
Ifs@12:47,
DeleteAs you say, 14 years of Tory austerity and corruption being followed by x years of Labour austerity and corruption.
Yet after all this, not to mention Brexit, polls consistently show a majority in favour of the union!
Do you never stop and ask yourself what is going to have to happen before a majority favour independence? Maybe if the charlatans in Holyrood had been slightly less incompetent in running the country, and not blaming Westminster for all our woes, you might just be in a better place.
As it is, it’s pretty much game over for independence. Only the deluded and totally brainwashed think otherwise.
Dr Jim peppers his posts with references to violence.
Delete" Ya gotta laugh and want to blow their brains out at the same time "
Mr Kavanagh on his blog disnae seem to mind having Dr Jim regularly posting that he wants to inflict violence on a range of people. Kavanagh disnae seem to mind having a supporter of genocide in Gaza posting on his blog. This is acceptable to him but criticism of the SNP is just not acceptable. Strange values.
KC like many Britnats your logic is flawed and your values are pitiful.
DeleteYour logic would mean we just have polls to decide everything. Now to use your favourite word that is just bullshit.
I note you ignore the fact that the UK has been supporting Israel in murdering thousands of children and maiming many many more. Children getting limbs amputated without anaesthetic. If you are proud of that then you truly are a pitiful Britnat. The monster that the UK helped create Netanyahu is now promising more of the same for the children of Lebanon in the months to come. Assisting war criminals is a war crime.
Ifs,
DeleteOf course what’s going on in the Middle East is terrible, however what it’s got to do with Scottish independence is beyond me.
Desperate stuff!
KC - a lot is beyond you.
Delete🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
DeleteRobin McAlpine's blog post "The SNP must get rid of Sturgeon" is an interesting read!
ReplyDeleteIndeed it is. I expect he'll be proven entirely correct. Independence supporters are all going to have to wake up to the fact an increasing number of us already know: Sturgeon is the scourge of our cause and would destroy us if she could.
DeleteShe'll be doing just that from the stand, in court, soon enough.
Interesting thought experiment: Does airing all the fraud at the heart of the SNP in painstaking, drip by drip detail out in public "draw a line" under the Sturgeon years? Could this trial finally end the doldrums we've been stuck in since the "supreme" court blocked the route to indyref in 2022?
DeleteMaybe once Swinney resigns…
If only Nicola Sturgeon leave the SNP it will be beneficial to ALBA ISP and the other diddy parties. I think McAlpine and his ilk should wake up to the fact that collectively NS is far and above the best leader the independence movement is had. The mysoginists can quite get over that. They should also realise she aint the FM x 2 but it would suggest those outside the SNP fear her.
Delete"I think McAlpine and his ilk should wake up to the fact that collectively NS is far and above the best leader the independence movement is had"
DeleteThough if the ongoing police investigations and court cases reveal damming and perhaps illegal things (and it's looking increasingly likely that will be the case) her close associations and ties will severely damage the Party and the independence movement by association.
At the very least she should have been suspended pending their outcome.
I have read McAlpine's article and I agree with it. I would do, of course, as I have been saying the same thing for years. If you want Scottish independence and a strong SNP take your blinkers off and read the article. Sturgeon's gang need to be ousted from any positions of control in the SNP and competent honest members who actually want Scottish independence need to be installed.
DeleteAnon 9:38 Possibly the most illiterate post yet on SGP!
DeleteYeah I'm of the view that the SNP at this point can't be saved. But if you're in the SNP and want to make the attempt then all hero worship needs to be dropped. No one person is more important the cause. Salmond and Sturgeon are the past and the Party needs to move on from both.
DeleteBut at present that's unlikely to happen sadly.
" But at present that's unlikely to happen" . The poster tatu3 on WGD disnae give you much hope that things will change in the SNP.
DeleteTatu3 says:- " I don't know about other SNP members, but I trust the SNP to use my money how they see fit, even on motorhomes, media suites and clicky pens."
That attitude is the stuff of cults. Tatu3 seems oblivious to the key point that the money didn't all come from SNP members and it was raised on the basis of being " ring fenced " for a specific purpose (indyref2) that hasn't taken place.
Mind you Tatu3 supports Israel's genocide in Gaza. I wonder how the ex SNP leader Yousaf would react to that fact.
All the wee Albanists, independent socialist party of 1, McAlpine roadies all telling the snp members what to do who to appoint who to get rid off. They don’t understand ironic.
DeleteAnon at 3.40pm - don't think you understand ironic. Why do all these trolls keep prefacing words with "wee"? Is it projection of how they are themselves?
DeleteNaw it’s a Scots word - you have a problem with that?
Delete"who to appoint who to get rid off"
DeleteBecause they're doing such a fantastic job at that lately?
How long did Humza last and how many MPs did the Party lose again?
Putting your head in the sand and pretending everything is a great way to ensure defeat.
5.26pm Anon - have a wee word with yourself about that stupid post. Have you been measuring the height of all Alba members and found they are all under 5' 5". If not why is their height relevant?
DeleteFor what it’s worth, Scottish sub-sample from aforementioned poll. Field work 5th - 7th Oct. Weighted population size 94. Con 17%, Lab 20%, LibDem 14%, RefUK 10%, Green 8%, SNP 27%.
ReplyDeleteRob here, sorry to ask, but I'm never entirely certain I can tell sarcasm/irony/in-jokes from honest info online. Is the Indy poll mentioned at the start of replies is real or just a wind-up? Or meaningless.
ReplyDeleteMostly looks like someone just taking the piss and replying to themselves under different names.
DeleteThat is frankly an outrageous claim.
DeleteTotally agree.
DeleteMeaningless trolling. Any time you see this 'Statista' nonsense you know to ignore it.
Delete@James is there any way to IP block to stop this kind of obvious trolling?
DeleteNo. KC has been peddling the "Statista" gibberish for a week or two now, all I can do is delete it when I see it, but I'm not around 24/7 and he takes advantage of that.
DeleteApologies for asking, thanks for putting me right. Not sure if this suggests I'm not online enough, or I should lurk more quietly.
DeleteRob