Although some people are sceptical about the credibility of Survation's MRP projection that the SNP are on course for a majority, let's take a moment to savour some of the specific constituency-level projections while we can, because if by any chance they're reflected on polling day there are some right belters in there.
* The SNP's Kirsten Oswald would defeat both Blair McDougall and Sandesh Gulhane in East Renfrewshire - although in McDougall's case the loss would be narrow and he would sadly evade a repeat performance of finishing third in a "two horse race" as he famously did in 2017.
* The SNP would supposedly defeat press-hack-turned-Labour-hack Torcuil Crichton in the Western Isles, although I'm very dubious about that projection, because none of the MRP polling from any firm seems to have yet come to terms with Angus MacNeil's involvement in the race. My working assumption is still that MacNeil will be the leading pro-independence candidate in the constituency, and that much of the SNP's 38% vote share in the projection will actually go to him. That creates the danger that Labour's 34% will be enough for Crichton to win due to a split pro-indy vote.
* Kirsty Blackman and Stephen Flynn would hold both Aberdeen seats for the SNP.
* Seamus Logan of the SNP would very narrowly defeat Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross to become MP for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.
* John Nicolson would hold Alloa and Grangemouth for the SNP.
* The SNP's Steven Bonnar would somehow hold off the Labour challenge in Coatbridge and Bellshill - that would be pretty extraordinary.
* Kim Marshall of the SNP would win Alister Jack's former seat of Dumfries and Galloway - and she'd do it with a bit to spare.
* Joanna Cherry would have a handsome win in Edinburgh South West.
* The SNP would hold ALL SIX Glasgow seats - that's a bit hard to believe, but it would be amazing if they did.
* The Lib Dems wouldn't even get close in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, allowing an easy hold for the SNP's Drew Hendry.
* The SNP would gain (or notionally "hold") Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - the successor seat to the one Douglas Ross currently holds, although he won't be standing there.
* Allan Dorans of the SNP would hold Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock by miles - that would be quite an effort.
* The SNP's David Wilson would narrowly gain Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from the Tories - that would possibly be the most spectacular gain of all.
* Last but certainly not least, Andrew Bowie would be heavily defeated by the SNP in Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine.
* * *
I meant to mention this earlier - as Craig Murray actually comes from Dundee, I couldn't help but be amused to spot that Dundee Central is another of the constituencies in which both of his political parties, the pro-independence Alba Party and the anti-independence Workers Party of Britain, will be standing directly against each other. I wonder who he'll be supporting in that one?
Thanks for these localised breakdowns. Some very good news there, but (as an SNP voters since the 1970s) I wonder on what planet Angus Brendan MacNeil isn't allowed to stand as an SNP candidate. That is beyond stupid.
ReplyDeleteIt's only stupid if MacNeil actually has a personal incumbency bonus. He should have, after being their MP for 19 years and with the smallest electorate of any constituency.
DeleteBut he might have blown it after that broken leg and guilty verdict. On the planet where he would have lost anyway, the SNP would be wise to replace him with a more competitive candidate.
MacNeil chose to jump ship. Should the branch folk who help get him elected let him back in as the prodigal son? Don't think so.
ReplyDeleteThough commenters on this blog constantly say that the goal in this election is to keep out the unionists.
DeleteIsn't the SNP standing against Angus Brendan MacNeil pretty much just giftwrapping the Constituency to Labour?
When people say that we all need to hold our noses in this election and vote a certain way to retain pro-indy MPs... that only applies if it's the SNP? Party before country?
The SNP Whip complained about MacNeil being away in Dubai at a business conference while Chair of the International Trade Select Committee, and missing a vote, there was an argument so MacNeil was suspended (but not the Whip - Brendan O'Hara).
DeleteHis face didn't fit, and the SNP didn't tolerate any dissent.
That's not even close to being true
DeleteStirring again eh
Yeah, you're right, it was Qatar not Dubai.
Delete"Destination of visit: Qatar (Doha)
Dates of visit: 20 May 2023 to 24 May 2023
Purpose of visit: To participate at the Bloomberg Qatar Economic Forum 2023 and meet Qatari and international officials to discuss current affairs including regional conflict resolution, labour rights and Qatar-UK bilateral relations."
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmregmem/240513/macneil_angus-brendan.htm
And I think it was key votes on this - Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill.
DeleteNext.
Go away. The snp was there before MacNeil and will be there long after. It’s him that should head off to the sunset. He misjudged the music.
ReplyDeleteSo the SNP would rather Labour wins in Na h-Eileanan an Iar than the pro-indy incumbent candidate?
DeleteThat's the reality as with both standing there's no way vote splitting doesn't gift Labour the seat.
The Spiteful Nasty Party.
DeleteAye that’s right. Boy sneaked off thinking he was something. Turns out he on his own and wants back. You make the wrong decision you have to live with it. Still he can apologise to all the members who got him elected in the first instance. Maybe we will listen. Maybe not. Still ALBA needs new members I hear.
DeleteThe reality of the situation is that he's the incumbent MP in Na h-Eileanan an Iar, he has been their MP for 19 years so is well known and regarded in the area and thus would stand a good chance of retaining his seat.
DeleteThe SNP have decided to stand a candidate against him, risking splitting the vote and gifting the seat to Labour.
If you truly support independence then the last thing you should want is a unionist MP. But that's essentially what you're advocating for purely out of spite.
Why are you Alba faithful never happy? Nicola Sturgeon's away having a break, is that not enough?
DeleteAnon @ 10:28 PM Why are you trying to change the subject?
DeleteCan't defend the SNP willingly giftwrapping a constituency to the unionists because the incumbent MP is the wrong kind of independence supporter?
But Alex Salmond says Alba are working with and supporting Angus MacNeil under their umbrella so what's the problem? All part of the energy support from the Tories/Qatari negotiations is it not with Salmond's interests being involved in Scotland energy business.
DeleteThe SNP are no longer a party of independence. Sturgeon out.
DeleteI wonder if Mharai Black is regretting her decision?
ReplyDeleteShe'll be sad people in Alba can't spell her name
DeleteShe'll be just as sad her parents couldn't.
DeleteTha Mhà iri agus Alba faclan Gà idhlig, cuidheachd.
DeleteSo of all things dinnae gripe about her Gaelic name. There’s plenty else not to like that’s fair game!
"I wonder who [Craig Murray] will be supporting in that one?"
ReplyDeleteHe'd probably say "I don't really mind who wins, because politics will be the real winner here".
Craig Murray, famously wrong about everything
DeleteOkay ... so what's happening in Gaza is not genocide?
DeleteCraig Murray needs to get the fuck out of the workers party. When was the last time he did a 12 hour shift.
DeleteHe did so. Back when the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea had democratic elections for the people.
DeleteAnyway, he can come home to blood red Morningside once Blackburn’s votes are counted and he’s lucky to have kept his deposit. Even Galloway is unlikely to retain his seat. General elections wash away the principled.
Note: they’ll also wash away the Tories & SNP but that’s not because of their principles!
I agree that some of the victories noted above are implausible.
ReplyDeleteWhile I hope that Labour does badly in Scotland, I'm not convinced that the SNP will do well. My own feeling still is that they'll end up with 8-15 seats.
Can I get a shot of your crystal ball? Or your astounding prediction skills?
DeleteI kind of agree, I think many are underestimating the levels of apathy that exist.
DeleteRutherglen and Hamilton West is the perfect example of that. The SNP lost not because of the Labour vote increasing, they lost because their former voters simply didn't turn up to vote for them again.
I can easily see that happening across the country in the General Election.
8-15! -go on hedge your bets.
Delete2% on the day sees every seat in Scotland SNP, that's all that's in it, and that would be the end of Westminster rule in one day
DeleteI don't know what that means and I'm not even in a helicopter!
DeleteHi James
ReplyDeleteCould we get a blog post on what MRP means and how it's worked out maybe? Seeing it more and more and as you've noted above some specific results don't seem credible.
I get poll.numbers nationally but I don't u understand this MRP
Abhainn
I would like that too.
DeleteHold your nose and listen to Prof Ailsa Henderson explaining in detail how MRP works and how it applies to Scottish constituences on the third (I think) episode of the Ponsonby&Massie podcast - you can get on Youtube. Her explanation of how it works in Scotland is really detailed and she explains what the impact of the boundary changes on the GE are as well. They look at specific constituencies for this GE - the amount of detail is really interesting. Great explainer.
ReplyDelete