Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Norstat):
Labour 34% (-)
SNP 30% (+1)
Conservatives 14% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
Reform UK 7% (+1)
Greens 4% (nc)
Alba 2% (-1)
The Survation MRP fieldwork seemed to include a larger number of respondents in Scotland than a normal full-scale Scottish poll would, and yet it showed a 7-point SNP lead in the popular vote. So we may now be getting into territory where the race is tight enough that different pollsters will disagree with each other on which party is in the lead. If so, it's conceivable we could go into polling day not actually knowing who is winning this election in Scotland.
Even if Norstat are closer to the truth than Survation, though, the two silver linings are that there is no sign in the Norstat poll of any momentum against the SNP, and that a four-point margin is small enough that the SNP would probably be able to salvage a respectable number of seats.
Once again, I'd draw your attention to the Alba vote share. If those people can be assumed to be, for the most part at least, very committed independence supporters, they are numerous enough to have the theoretical capability of cutting Labour's 4-point lead in half. Remember that Alba are not standing in two-thirds of constituencies, and Norstat will have allowed people to select the Alba option regardless of which constituency they live in. So it's entirely possible, and arguably highly likely, that at least half of Alba's 2% are people who will actually vote SNP - enough to bring down Labour's 'real' lead to around three points.
Norstat confirm that the appetite for independence remains undimmed and may actually be increasing -
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49% (+1)
No 51% (-1)
And a further sign that the SNP's underlying position may be strengthening is that they now hold a slight lead on both Holyrood ballots.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 34% (-)
Labour 32% (-1)
Conservatives 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)
Greens 6% (+1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 28% (+1)
Labour 27% (-1)
Conservatives 16% (-1)
Greens 9% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Reform UK 7% (+1)
Alba 5% (+1)
* * *
I've previewed the constituency race in Dundee Central for The National - you can read the piece HERE.
I'm pleased with the increase in support for independence but sad it isn't over 75%
ReplyDeleteThese changes are within MOE.
DeleteAnon at 11.01. MOE position is already made clear. Are you annoyed at the gap closing?
DeleteThe point about margin of error is that we can't be sure the gap IS closing.
DeleteNo, the main point about the margin of error is that we can't be sure whether No are even in the lead. Maybe it's the No side who are failing to close the gap.
DeleteI agree
DeleteI seriously don't think there's too much to fear from Labour. Undoubtedly they will win the GE comfortably, leaving them 2 years to royally **** the country. Hopefully that's when independence will become a reality.
ReplyDeleteAgreed for holyrood it has to be SNP 1, ALBA 2
DeleteBut not if you get lobster poisoning at an elegant restaurant in St Andrews. You know who you are.
DeleteDoes anyone actually know anyone thats is voting Labour? I don't believe these polls for a second. SNP will be on at least 45-50% of the vote.
ReplyDeleteLay off the booze.
DeleteDo one labour/tory boy.
DeleteA powerful riposte🤣🤣🤣
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DeleteI wonder what you removed. Not your teeth without Ana's thetic I hope.
DeleteThere was a comment here earlier that made a valid point regarding the vote split in this poll, which has disappeared.
ReplyDeleteAs you know, it disappeared because it did not make a valid point, but was instead one of the 20-30 pieces of concern trolling posted on a daily basis by you, KC, posing cynically as a "worried independence supporter", and which is getting me to the point where I may either have to reintroduce pre-moderation or require commenters to sign in to a Google account. Your book will be called "How To Wreck A Blog's Comment Section Single-Handedly, Rule Britannia".
DeleteI wouldn't do google. It looks like you have to give a mobile phone number, and there's no danger I'd give them that. Not without a burner phone!
DeleteI don't think that's true. I've just set up a dummy account on my phone to test (it's so long since I set up my first I couldn't remember what was asked) and wasn't asked for a number.
DeleteYou were doing on your phone so perhaps they get your number from that anyway. I was on a Lifebook with Firefox and Ghostery, and of course, no phone number on it!
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DeleteI see the House Jocks, McCoist and Souness are getting their British Empire gongs from the Kings. Way too many like them grovelling to the English king and England. Somebody should tell these people the Empire no longer exists. Brittannia has not ruled the waves for a very long time.
ReplyDeleteIronically Labour could win the largest majority in UK history but with the smallest vote share in years such is the anomaly of FPTP at blocking out smaller parties such as Reform. In Scotland I really hope people who support independence wake up and vote for the SNP. With ALBA almost certain to gain some seats in the next Scottish election, that alone should boot the SNP into putting independence back onto the agenda....Allan.
ReplyDelete“That alone should boost”
DeleteCare to explain your fruity reasoning? So far, the only reaction the SNP has had to Alba is hysterical rejection.
If ALBA win a few seats in the Scottish election then I think some in the SNP will take that into account and wake up to the fact the SNP don't wholesale own the independence vote and put it back onto the agenda as ALBA are doing.
DeleteThose voters ARE OUR PROPERTY, you disrespectful, spoiling ****s!
Delete!2;43,if you had been able to listen to John Swinney today,you would have realised that independence has never been off the agenda.The SNP are determined to achieve Independence for Scotland.in order to improve quality of life for everyone.Regarding the referendum,John Swinney pointed out that the Scottish government received a mandate from the Scottish electorate to hold a referendum,and that the Scottish parliament had approved that.He said that the only thing that would challenge the resistance of a UK government to the democratic right of the Scottish people was a vote for the SNP. It is of course possible that the UK goverment might continue to ignore the democratic will of the Scottish people,but it is certain that,if the SNP do badly,the UK government will government will use that as an excuse to ignore the size of the yes vote in the opinion polling,even if there is a majority.Should the SNP win the election on the 4th July,and Westminster resists a referendum,John Swinney told me that the party would implement an effective response.The most effective response that has been considered is to use the election for the Scottish Parliament as a defacto referendum.I could clearly see that he was determined to deliver independence
DeleteYour faith in Swinney is both touching and depressing, just as it was in Nicola and Humza. I don't know how many false dawns it will take for the realisation to break through that you've been lied to.
DeleteNicola Sturgeon seemed like she was determined to deliver independence as well.
DeleteThe 2017 General Election supposedly gave us a triple-lock mandate for another referendum. The 2019 General Election was then a firm commitment to protect Scotland from Brexit & demand the UK Government to put Scotland's future into Scotland's hands.
John Swinney was right there standing beside Nicola when those commitments were made. He's literally the continuity candidate spouting more of the same but looking at the polls people aren't buying it this time.
I wish there was 2 leader's of the snp and the alba party and if 1 was called Gertrude and the other 1 was Agatha I would vote for the 2 of them
DeleteI'd vote for them too if Gertrude was married to Eustace and Agatha was married to Jolyon.
DeleteFor clarity, I will probably vote SNP and ALBA on the list vote for the next Scottish election. TBH, I would rather the SNP do some sort of deal with Salmond than the Greens who ultimately have damaged the SNP.
ReplyDeleteAllan..
Hasn't ALBA tried to damage the snp for the past few years? Reality is the GE has exposed the weakness of ALBA.
DeleteBy asking their supporters to vote SNP in the Constituency ballot in the last Scottish Parliament election, 'Vote until you drop' for all pro-indy candidates (including the SNP) in the Council elections, not standing against the SNP in the crucial Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, offering to work with Humza Yousaf to save his job as First Minister, advocating for all pro-indy parties to coordinate and work together in this General Election with 'Scotland United' and literally calling for a Constitutional Convention to unite the Yes movement since day 1 of their existence?
DeleteI'm surprised the SNP has managed to cope with all that damage!
If polls were accurate or even true why do so many people pay for so many of them to be conducted?
ReplyDeleteCouldn't be polls are paid for influencers could it?
TikTok but old fashioned
Polls can be a bit of both things. James has written about leading questions and push polling here before.
DeleteBut your desire to smear all of them as propaganda exercises suggests a little detachment from political reality. SNP or Tory, care to share?
Strange that Farage's crowd are at 7% in the regional vote. Who the hell thinks that outfit are relevant to this country?
ReplyDeleteRacists
DeleteAnon 4;16 and 4:10,I was there today, in Inverness and I could observe that John Swinney was genuine.I am aware of the history,facts,context and decisions associated with attempts to get another referendum.I actually agree with some of your comments .What I find sad is the splits in the independence movement.We have enough powerful enemies to spend time attacking each other. I accept that some things could or should have been done differently,but I try to see the big picture.That is achieving independence that is all that matters,since without it,we can achieve very little.While different ideas should be encouraged,I find the fact that some people who want independence are saying that they wont vote.That most certainly wont deliver independence.We should all know by now that if the SNP have a poor election,our powerful unionist opponents will say that Scots dont want independence anymore.Of course that is misleading,but many will believe it.Thankfully there are now signs that the SNP vote is picking up .After this election,we need to sort out the divisions within the pro-independence movement and target the real opponents of independence
ReplyDeleteAnon @ 5:32 No offence but I'd imagine most of the commenters on this blog are regulars and will notice that you're just copying & pasting the same comments.
DeleteIt becomes pointless to debate with someone who doesn't say anything new and just repeats the same line over & over. It comes across like you're not putting any effort into your points.
Anon 6:25.if i repeat some points it is because i consider them to be relevant to the ongoing debate.Later on when the opportunity comes along,I will argue for the need to refocus the debate in order for us to make some progress with the aim of achieving independence,
ReplyDeleteYeah but it becomes meaningless as in previous blog posts you stop responding to those debating with you.
DeletePeople raise valid points of disagreement but it then abruptly ends and you just start from the beginning again on the next blog post. Ends up being no point to respond to you.
Thank you for sharing that view.
ReplyDelete