Survation MRP projection of GB seat tallies (29 is the target for the SNP to win a majority in Scotland):
Labour 456
Conservatives 72
Liberal Democrats 56
SNP 37
Reform UK 7
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
This wouldn't just be a majority for the SNP - it would slightly exceed their performance in 2017 and would thus be their third best general election in history.
This will, I suspect, sound too good to be true to some people. I don't know whether that's really the case, but I'll run through the caveats -
* To generate numbers like this, the SNP would need to be several points ahead in the Scotland-wide popular vote. No conventional poll in the campaign so far has shown them in the lead, although the last two have had them either level with Labour or almost level.
* Survation's fieldwork took place over a two-week period and therefore some of it isn't very recent.
* YouGov have more experience with MRP than Survation, and YouGov's first projection was less rosy for the SNP than Survation's.
* We don't know whether the football result last night will create a 1978-style "feel bad about Scotland" effect which might benefit British Nationalist parties like Labour. However, I know many psephologists are highly sceptical about the claims of election results being affected by sport. (For example, England's defeat to West Germany in the quarter-finals of the 1970 World Cup is supposed to have cost Harold Wilson the 1970 general election, but there's no real evidence to support that.)
The Britain-wide numbers are no less extraordinary than the Scottish ones, and if taken literally could herald the biggest change in the UK party system for one hundred years, ie. since the Labour party replaced the Liberals in the duopoly over the course of the 1920s. It's possible that Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats could end up as Leader of the Opposition, it's possible that Nigel Farage of Reform UK could, it's not even totally impossible that Stephen Flynn of the SNP could if something very weird happens. There's also a potential scenario in which the SNP remain the third largest party in the Commons because the Tories slump to fourth.
* * *
I've previewed the constituency race in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale for The National - you can read the piece HERE.
Very good poll.
ReplyDeleteIntriguing. If nothing else, it shows doubters that the possibility for a positive outcome remains there to be grabbed, if we as a movement are collectively motivated and disciplined enough to do so.
ReplyDeleteBrian
Very encouraging.
DeleteCautiously encouraged.. There seems to be some consistency in the direction of the numbers. Even Electoral Calculus is picking up on it and it has a bit of a time lag.
ReplyDeleteThe Tories continue to take wild potshots at their own feet, possibly the worst campaign I've ever seen.
Labour launched a technical but rather uninspiring manifesto that asked more questions than it answered. What government has ever offered economic reduction as a strategy (well apart from Brexit)? They all want growth rather than having to tax or borrow. Delivering growth is not easy not all the variables are under a government's control. Building millions of houses would be great..have you tried to book a brickie or a roofer? There are a shed full of supply issues to sort out and for every year the 2.5% growth is not achieved the pressure builds on tax and borrowing. So it isn't really surprising that Labour are slipping but the Tories are so far behind it just doesn't matter.
If turnout is as low as predictions suggest, Labour could have a 180 seat majority with fewer votes than Corbyn received in 2017 and possibly even 2019.
However, with three weeks to go who knows what further mishaps may befall a party's campaign. Although on current form you wouldn't bet against Sunak accidentally pushing the King down some stairs or something
Very good post.
DeleteTrooping the colour. The English king is NOT MY KING. Only House Jocks accept him.
ReplyDeleteExcept he’s not the English king, he’s the British king.
DeleteEnglish King Charles as will Prince Willie when he is an English King.
DeleteDon't be racist. He's the Papua New Guinean King.
DeleteRule Britannia, God Save The King.
DeleteGod didn’t save Lizzie. Perhaps God is a republican.
DeleteAnon, I don't know whether you're posting poll results for information, but given KC's relentless concern trolling operation, I have to assume he was probably behind it, and that's why your comment was deleted.
ReplyDeleteVery encouraging poll.
ReplyDeleteWho knows, if the SNP battle bus had been available for campaigning it could have been looking even better.
IfS has been strangely quiet recently. He seems to have worked out that he lacks the subtlety required to undermine James’s position that Scots should vote tactically for the SNP if they support independence, whether through gritted teeth or otherwise.
ReplyDeleteThe guy could barely hide that his loyalty was to Wings first and foremost, so I’m glad he’s given up the facade.
Why can't you just leave the guy alone. If he comments you complain about him, if he doesn't you still have a go at him. The attempts at bullying him into silence are very new SNP like.
DeleteHe was a troll
DeleteHe's been commenting here longer than any of you. If James doesn't have a problem with him, why should we listen to you?
DeleteIfS used to fly into a rage to end all rages when anyone criticised the Conservative and Unionist blogger from Bath - to the point where many of us suspected that he was Campbell under an ill-disguised monicker.
DeleteJames may not have had a problem with IfS, but it's quite clear they disagreed fundamentally on the question of independence strategy.
IfS also cannot complain about people commenting on him in his absence. He Hate-Reads every single comment on WGD, and used to obsessively report on them here, despite no one asking. What's good for the goose and all that...
Grow up. You sound like a spiteful little schoolgirl.
DeleteFingers crossed. The best so far of a not very inspiring range of outcomes.
ReplyDeleteJump to another point. For some strange reason I''ve always enjoyed the skill and spectacle of Trooping the Colour but the sycophancy and obsequiousness of the commentaries always serve to remind that at heart it is an annual orgy of imperialist, jingo reinforcement. Not my king !
If the projections are correct which I hope there not, for the sake of the Indy movement the SNP won't delivery a single thing for Scotland other than for themselves.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is. On paper the SNP holding a majority looks good for indy. However the reality is. They have had three majorities at WM , and absolutely no progress on Indy.
ReplyDeleteThat leaves the movement in a quandary about who to vote for. What we can't have is an emboldened SNP sitting on their arses for another 5 years.
I just don't think anything benefits our movement right now.
It isn't so much a quandary about who to vote for but how to deal with an intransigent Westminster. The SNP have asked for section 30s, they have legislated for our own referendum, only to have it struck down by the Supreme Court. Like the Spanish, Westminster are determined to block aspirations to independence by whatever it takes.
DeleteThe SNP have not done nothing but we are faced with a State that views our right to independence as an existential threat. I'm not one for conspiracy theories but I've always had an uneasy feeling that 85% was awfully high turnout to vote for anything in this country. People seem quick to disrespect the SNP but the real problem is a State that is willing to play dirty. What they would really like is for Yes movement to lose heart, it would make their lives so much easier if they could go back to Scotland just voting for Unionist parties...any Unionist party will do
Best just to forget about independence, it ain’t happening.
Delete@ 9.00
DeleteThe SC is the last court of appeal. The SG took the case to the SC in an attempt to over rule Westminster's blocking of the Holyrood bill.
Alas, we can't all be intellectual giants like yourself.
You're wrong. Sturgeon knew she would lose at the Supreme Court, that's why she chose to go that route
DeleteHandandShrimp proving he is delusional and changes facts to suit his delusion. If Nicola knew Westminster would block a referendum then why did she keep promising a gold standard referendum since 2017? Answer - she knew people like HandandShrimp would believe any nonsense she said and still do. You don’t need to be an intellectual
Deleteto see that.
@ 10.47
DeleteI may be wrong, I make no claim to be the sole arbiter of the truth. However, I think on balance Sturgeon went to the courts because it was the only route open.
To argue that the SNP leadership have acted in bad faith for years is a conspiracy theory. It might have a small percentage chance of being right but it is a very small percentage.
HandandShrimp - you are wrong.
DeleteTrooping the colour is a massive waste of money. It sends out the message. That there is always money in the pot for vacuous, hollow celebrations of an unelected multi millionaire and his hingers on.
ReplyDeleteWhile people on the streets are begging and the economy is in tatters. Hey but at least we have those blue passports and two fingers up to Johnny foreigner.
Delusional people like Handandshrimp are part of the problem.
ReplyDeletegot my Douglas Ross leaflet Saturday morning, one side of A4, any half decent campaigner knows that leaving the other side empty is (A) a wasted campaigning opportunity and or ( B) Ross knows he is toast, and is keeping it as short as possble
ReplyDeleteSturgeon box ticked the referendum, by sending it to SC. She knew it was a dead duck that way. Then after the rejection, she just shrugged and said "uch well".
ReplyDeleteAs said before. If they were serious the bill would have gone through Holyrood first. Then challenge the HOL to block it. And this failed strategy will continue. It really is Grounhog Day.
Whooosh.
DeleteI don't know about the Germany result affecting things, but the pre match coverage, featuring an immediate interview with Southgate, and the full England based punditry line up, was enough to firm up my reluctant SNP vote.
ReplyDeleteBrian Cox, says he is still an independence supporter but feels the SNP have backed off independence. Surprising since he was always a big Nicola supporter. More and more people seeing the SNP for what they really are.
ReplyDeleteYou are misrepresenting him. He is a very, very strong Nicola supporter.
DeleteHe said he wanted a federal system of England and Scotland.
DeleteI agree he also said that about federalism but clearly he doesn’t understand what it means. The SNP have totally confused so many independence supporters with their continual changing re independence process but actually do nothing since 2014. Even ardent Nicola supporters like Cox are all over the place.
DeleteAmon at 9.55. We all know what you are. Must do better.
DeleteA truth teller?
DeleteMore and more people are wrong.John Swinney has stated that the coming election is an opportunity to advance the cause of independence and to demonstrate how the powers of independence would let us take action on Scotlands priorities,That does nor sound like backing off to me.If people feel that there is a way of advancing independence ,that differs from the SNP strategy,fine,but that is quite different from concluding that The SNP do not want independence.That attitude is damaging to all of us who want independence.
ReplyDeleteQuotes made by Nicola Sturgeon:
Delete2017 General Election: "If the SNP wins this election in Scotland, that would complete a triple lock of democratic mandates for an independence referendum. The mandate we have already secured in the Scottish Parliament and from the Scottish people means that the people of Scotland should be given a choice on their future".
2019 General Election: "A vote for the SNP is a vote to escape Brexit. It’s a vote to put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands. SNP MPs will always stand up for Scotland. We answer to the people who live here – not to any leader at Westminster." Sturgeon also stated, "In any discussion, we will demand that the democratic right of people in Scotland to decide their own future is respected".
What is the strategy you mention. There has been so many?
DeleteSNP talk on independence is cheap. Always comes to the fore at election time. SNP action on independence has been zero since 2014.
DeleteGet up off your arses and engage with people. Persuade them to support Indy. Or sit carping from the sidelines. Your choice.
DeleteThose carping from the sidelines don’t have a plan. They also do nothing to engage with and persuade others to come over to Indy. They don’t like being told this.
DeleteIf you want to know the strategy,go into the SNP website and the manifesto.The SNP have made it clear that a vote for the SNP is a vote for Scotland to become an independent country (the frst line of the manifesto).
DeleteQuick question: Was that triple lock mandate for an independence referendum following the 2017 General Election pursuded?
DeleteWas that promise to escape Brexit and put Scotland's future into Scotland's hands in the 2019 General Election put into practice?
The SNP have made a lot of things clear in previous elections but the trouble is that they don't have a good track record of fulfilling their promises.
I'm surprised people are so willing to let the SNP off the hook. Blaming the average Joe rather than those we've elected multiple times to progress independence utterly failing in that task.
DeleteThey've been the Scottish Government for 17 years & comfortably won the 2015, 2017 & 2019 General Elections securing the majority of Scottish MPs at each.
We expect leaders to lead and frankly since 2014 polls have barely shifted and we're no further forward to achieving independence now than we were then. If anything the SNP's Supreme Court folly has put us in a worse position.
The Yes movement is fractured, polls show this as there is a large gap between support for independence and support for the SNP. We need to stop pretending that this reality is all someone else's fault.
They're blind to all reason - the very definition of a cult.
DeleteAnd anon at 1.18. You sound like a silly cult, and I claim my five pounds?
DeleteHilarious. Have you an agent?🤡
DeleteThe time to hold the SNP to account is in less than 2 years at the Holyrood election because there will be alternatives that have a chance at being elected.
DeleteMeanwhile , we vote SNP on the 4th of July simply because a poor result for them will be used by the Britnat establishment to use every means to damage the yes movement further.
Hold your noses till the 4th July.
Soar Alba
Anon at 1.52. Who suggested you should sign off posts as a clown? You know it just confirms that you’re, well, a clown. Have a wee think about it.
DeleteAnon at 1.52. Who suggested you sign off comments as a clown? It makes you look like, well, a clown. Have a wee think and a cup of tea.
DeleteAnon 9:01,I get the frustration,but I disagree with you conclusion.There is need for people to talk about how best to achieve independence,and to be respectful to each other.I have great respect for Sturgeon.Yes,with hindsight,it is possible that she could have made some different decisions.The truth is we dont really know and it does not help anything to call those working hard for the SNP during this election traitors.That might delight our unionist opponents but it does not inspire SNP activists who hard to to persuade people why independence is needed .Today I go out in the rain to do that,and your comment does not make me feel warm all over.
ReplyDelete@1039 agree
ReplyDelete