After the setback (with caveats) of the Redfield & Wilton poll a couple of hours ago, here's some much better news for the SNP and the wider independence movement from Survation's first MRP projection. Best of all is that the fieldwork seems to be fairly up-to-date. Remember 29 seats is the target for the SNP to retain a majority in Scotland.
Survation MRP seats projection:
Labour 487
Conservatives 71
Liberal Democrats 43
SNP 26
Reform UK 3
Plaid Cymru 2
As an ex Labour man (and still staunch Corbyn supporter, but now an SNP voter!) can I go back to 2017 first...
ReplyDelete"I'll wait for Survation".
That joke aside (sorry James) , that's Survation, More in Common and the Electoral Calculus/ Find Out Now MRPs relatively close now.
Does this fact give us any indicators, given my own experience is that polls do generally start to converge closer to a GE?
R.
Mick.
Standard voting intention polls often tend to converge (albeit not in 2017), although of course sometimes there's just safety in numbers as all the firms get it wrong together. I'm not sure about MRP projections converging, that's still such a young science.
DeleteAnother encouraging poll vindicating the choice of John Swinney as leader.
ReplyDeleteI suppose that 'winning a majority' in Scotland and coming 3rd in UK were big things in 2015, but seem less significant now, in the face of a implacable British state leaving no voluntary way out of the precious 'voluntary' union.
ReplyDeleteSure, not great. But a much, much better result - if realised - than anyone had a reasonable expectation of until very recently. The change of leader & of depute leader have both helped, and just in time. Let's survive this intact and rebuild from there.
ReplyDeleteTaylor Swift - "There will be happiness after you", was HY her inspiration?
Brian
John Swinney and Kate Forbes are an excellent team.My understanding from feedback from SNP activists on the ground in my constituency is that the cost of living and health care focus many voters minds just now.Kate Forbes is a strong advocate of the need to explain to voters how independence is liked to everything that is important to voters,including the cost of living,health care,education,the eradication of poverty,the environment,international relations and so on.She also advocates collaboration with all strands of the pro independence movement.If the SNP promotes that approach,I think that will encourage many people to vote who are considering staying at home.
ReplyDeleteAgree fully.
DeleteAn "excellent team" for what purpose? Securing Indy? LOL! Securing Westminster Short Money is the only driving force behind the SNP... The Sham Nationalist Party. Time you all woke up! 56 out of 59 MPs at WM and the SNP rolled over instead of using Brexit as the opportunity to end the Union that it was...so much for not allowing us to be dragged out the EU. How did that work out Mr Blackford? Stronger for Scotland? Aye, right! Too busy maintaining the revenue stream that the status quo brings and dreaming of Devo-Max to bother with Indy. But talk is cheap, so you'll no doubt be fooled to part with your cash and your vote for the "excellent team" that your delusions clearly imagine them to be.
DeleteAnon at 1.23. What’s your plan? Not got one!? What a surprise. Jog on.
DeleteAnyone watching the Leaders debate? I can't stomach it so TV is off. If you are watching it, who is doing well/ badly? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteBrian
I thought the debate didn't really give time for arguments to be developed properly. A more in depth type of discussion would be better.
DeleteYeah 45 seconds to answer each question was ridiculous. It takes longer to explain things properly, with a 45 second limit it's just whoever is best at short concise soundbites which are often utter nonsense.
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DeleteYougov snap poll puts it a statistical dead heat: 49 Starmer and 51 Sunak.
ReplyDeleteThat's poor for Starmer.
DeleteAccording to the Yougov snap poll Sunak won 51%to 49%, I didn't bother watching as I won't be voting for either party. Mildly surprised Sunak came close with his record. Starmer must have flufferd his lines.
ReplyDeleteI watched, Starmer I feel takes longer to get to the point & in this debate each question had a strict 45 second response before the host would just cut them off speaking .
DeleteSunak was better at short soundbites (as ludicrous as they were) & Starmer wasn't able to properly retort a lot of them. Was a nonsensical debate format tbh.
Starmer didn't really answer the questions as to what he would do and sometimes that was a little too obvious.
DeleteThe debate is taking place before the manifestos are out so I guess its hard for him to say what he would do without giving away those closely-guarded policies (assuming there are some!)
Thanks everyone. Glad I didn't watch. Brian
ReplyDelete“ANSWER THE QUESTION, prime minister. Yes or no: would you eat a kebab that was made by a migrant?”
Delete“TOO SLOW. And you, Sir Keir? Remember this question now scores 2 points.”
Itv did poorly. It was not good to limit length of answers.
DeleteAlso the idea of asking the two politicians to "raise their hands" should be ruled out.
All these positive polls would have been impossibile with Yousaf, clearly the ticket Swinney-Forbes is working.
ReplyDeleteBut Humza was finally settling into the rôle! Don’t take that away from him.
DeleteAway out and try and get your hole. There’s a first for everything.
DeleteJames - why is there such a variation in these polls.
ReplyDeleteDid anybody watch this pair of drearies boring the will to live out of each other?
ReplyDeleteI kind of did till Jayden buzzed me on Insta and said Cat was doing a live show (gettit?!). No comp!
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