This is one of the key polling moments I've been waiting for since John Swinney became SNP leader. The monthly Redfield & Wilton poll doesn't just have net approval ratings for leading politicians, it also has head-to-head questions on who would make the better First Minister, which are often quite predictive of election results. I strongly suspected Swinney would have a substantial lead over Anas Sarwar, and so it has proved.
At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better First Minister of Scotland?
John Swinney (SNP) 39%
Anas Sarwar (Labour) 26%
At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better First Minister of Scotland?
John Swinney (SNP) 38%
Douglas Ross (Conservatives) 26%
But as it happens, Swinney does well on net approval as well, with a rating of +2, which is only marginally below Keir Starmer's +4.
Swinney's popularity is reflected in the Holyrood voting intention numbers, which show the SNP moving back into the lead on both ballots.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 33% (-)
Labour 32% (-3)
Conservatives 17% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Greens 2% (-1)
Alba 2% (+1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 31% (+4)
Labour 28% (-5)
Conservatives 15% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-)
Greens 7% (-2)
Reform UK 6% (+1)
Alba 4% (+1)
So there are now quite strong grounds for optimism that the SNP can at least remain the largest single party at the next Holyrood election. Unfortunately, though, we're in the middle of a Westminster campaign rather than a Holyrood campaign, and the one result from the poll that is negative for the SNP just happens to be the Westminster result.
Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election:
Labour 39% (+1)
SNP 29% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Reform UK 4% (-)
Greens 3% (-1)
Alba 1% (-)
It may just be a case of holding our nerve here, because there have been some OK polling results for the SNP in recent days, and even Redfield & Wilton are showing indications that the SNP's underlying position has improved. But obviously if the next few polls in a row all show a significant Labour lead, there'll be cause for concern.
Back to the good news: support for independence has gone back up and is once again very close to 50%.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49% (+1)
No 51% (-1)
Interesting to see the Holyrood list results: SNP up 4, Green down 2, Alba up 1 (I take it these are percentage points).
ReplyDeleteGreen down on all fronts.
Encouraging poll showing Swinney was a good choice.
ReplyDeleteHe has got off to the best of starts.
Really John Swinney needs to link independence and point out how damaging the union actually is . Point out England took us to Brexit and England keeps voting in the Tories even though Scotland has rejected them for 69 years ....that fact alone needs to be shouted from the rooftops and people are a bit ignorant of it .
ReplyDeleteI see the don't knows moved more towards yes than no too albeit small numbers.
ReplyDeleteAt a time when the main party is not doing so well, it really is quite remarkable how strong the support for independence is. Literally nobody is really champingbat the bit for indy, the union is feeling better about itself via SNP frailty but if 50% is bad for indy, and this is the lower ebb...
Im impatient for independence and will push it relentlessly but next political wind is be interesting...
10% isn't great but there is good noises in amongst there.
ReplyDeleteNot all over yet
There is no YES without the SNP
ReplyDeleteAllow the SNP to lose this election and who is there?
" There is no YES without the SNP" That is the Britnat's policy and you just agreed with them.
DeleteThis proves that I was right to say that John is the best first minister of all time apart from Nicola.
ReplyDeleteSeriously James why are these ridiculous posts allowed?
DeleteIt disnae prove anything Declan other than you post silly stuff on SGP and free speech allows people to prove they are idiots. Congratulations.
DeleteAre you raging?
DeleteHe does appear to be back to his ranting best, and the more recent encouraging poll results are not going down well. He reminds me a bit of PAB. Long winded and rambling, but with less brains than PAB. Cue his wee pals rushing to his defence.
DeleteAlot less brains than PAB I'd sat.
DeleteSo Alba on 1%. What is the point of them? What are they trying to achieve?
ReplyDeleteAll they’re going to do is take a few votes from the SNP and potentially hand seats to unionist parties.
You really couldn’t make it up.
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Delete" What are they trying to achieve Scottish independence" Not a very difficult question from anon to answer.
Delete" Potentially hand seats to Unionist parties"- were you so exercised by " Both Votes SNP" which actually did hand seats to Unionist parties. You really couldn't make up the double standards of some posters.
IFS, you’re entitled to your opinion.
DeleteAlso worth pointing out: Looking at the independence question in the same poll: Yes support is at 49% whereas support for the SNP in the General Election is at 29%.
DeleteExcluding Alba's 1% & the Greens 3% that still leaves 16% of Yes supporters not voting for them. The million dollar question to answer is: Why?
I feel that missing 16% is far more likely to lose the SNP seats that Alba's 1%. Why aren't they currently backing the SNP and what can the SNP do to address that disconnect?
Further down in the R&W report I think you'll find your answer, Scott. A quarter of 2019 SNP voters will vote Labour this time. That's huge.
DeleteTo be honest, the SNP have nobody but themselves to blame for that. They are still only barely mentioning indy and are obsessed with kicking out the Tories. Hardly distinguishable from Labour in that except Labour can absolutely guarantee to have the Tories out by the morning of July 5th, the SNP can't.
As we've discussed before, those of us who would vote yes but have lost faith in the SNP and will abstain in this GE will be in that 16% too. My support for the SNP was hard lost. It would take a great deal of persuasion to win me back. Nothing I've seen so far in this campaign has changed my opinion.
Me at 4.24.
DeleteYeah I was hoping an SNP supporter would address that point. It's clear that the emotional blackmail 'We must vote SNP to keep the independence dream alive' rhetoric isn't working, so what do they think the SNP should be doing instead?
DeleteThat 16% have stopped voting SNP for a reason, they need to understand why that is & address it head on. Just begging or angrily demanding that people come back or give the SNP 'One more chance' won't cut it.
"So Alba on 1%. What is the point of them?"
ReplyDeleteSo Greens on 3%, what is the point of them. What are they trying to achieve? All they’re going to do is take a few votes from the SNP and potentially hand seats to unionist parties.
You really couldn’t make it up.
Very disappointing to see yet another poll showing support for independence below 50%.
ReplyDeleteYou have to wonder what it’s going to take to drive support higher.
An actual campaign working towards a goal (such as a date) would help.
Delete