Anybody rational would agree that the so-called "Scotland United" plan is the optimal one, but the snag is that we know the SNP and Green leaderships will never agree to it (barring a pre-election change in the SNP leadership, which admittedly is not impossible). So what concerns me is what Alba are planning to do once they accept the plan is ruled out due to Humza Yousaf's intransigence. Do they say "we'll be the grown-up in the room and avoid any risk of splitting the pro-indy vote in a crucial first-past-the-post election"? That would be the strategically wise thing to do, both in the interests of the independence cause and in the self-interest of the Alba Party. Brownie points would be earned with the Yes-supporting electorate that could prove to be very valuable on the Holyrood list vote in 2026. It would avoid Alba needlessly becoming the bogeyman Yousaf uses to escape the blame (or to attempt to escape the blame) for catastrophic seat losses, if the worst happens at the general election next year.
Or will Alba say to the SNP: "we tried to reach out to you and you've reacted with contempt, so to hell with you, we'll stand against you in a significant number of Westminster constituencies"? Lashing out in that way would be strategically foolish in my view, both for independence and for Alba. I genuinely don't know what the plan is, but you can guarantee the leadership will already privately know - Alex Salmond won't have put forward the 'Scotland United' idea without knowing exactly what it and its near-inevitable rejection is really preparing the ground for.
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Good to see, I joined the SNP again, but will advocate this at branch level, even just putting it into there heads so there not stuck in tunnel vision. The general public is where it's going to have to come from, need be it from pro indie media types, at the moment the SNP has a monopoly on those but we need people like that to speak out as they actually get attention from the general public, we should go about targeting them for this purpose. That should be a part of the campaign to make this happen anyway.
ReplyDeletePriority for Alba is to retain the two seats they have. SNP will want to take them out regardless of the fact it will likely lead to unionist MPs. They’ll see that as a price worth paying to strip Alba of substantial visibility. Alba should say that if they run candidates in those constituencies then Alba will run candidates in two tight SNP marginals. Probably needs to be ones where Labour are currently second to avoid any suggestion of them letting Tories in. Go for big hitters. Mhairi Black’s seat? Who’s second in Flynn’s seat right now? Make them really think about it. SNP can’t stick Alba with harming independence if they’ve done the exact same thing.
ReplyDelete"Alba should say that if they run candidates in those constituencies then Alba will run candidates in two tight SNP marginals"
DeleteThat's crazy. That would be seen by Yessers as petty, destructive revenge, because that's exactly what it would be. If you want to build up bitterness and mistrust against Alba and limit the party's potential list vote in 2026, that's precisely the way to do it.
What a good idea. The SNP troughers would have to think about this.
DeleteIt’s reactive (SNP would have to run in the Alba seats for it to happen) and proportionate. 2 for 2. Why would Yessers blame Alba when it would be clear that SNP put destruction of Alba ahead of the independence cause? Petty destructive revenge is an accurate characterisation of SNP running in those seats. Yessers won’t see that?There’s no chance SNP hold back unless there is a consequence. If Alba don’t do something they lose their only parliamentary representatives. Maybe they gain some goodwill by doing so. Debatable. Worth sacrificing the profile of NH and KM? I’d argue no. Their visibility is increasing and more likely to boost the Alba vote
DeleteThere is already an immense wealth of bitterness and hostility between Alba and the SNP. I can’t see anything changing that under the current leadership. So the question really is whether to sacrifice those two Alba seats entirely needlessly? (To be honest, I think they are a lost cause anyway. But a week is a long time in politics, et cetera…)
DeleteI, for one, will not vote SNP while Humza Yusuf remains leader. Give me an album candidate and I will vote for them. Give me only the Brits plus SNP, and I have no choice but to stay home. A slump in turn out is not a clear enough message for my liking. We have all seen so many different politicians weasel their way around these in the past. No lessons are ever learned. Existing faults are always maintained. Just look at what Nicola did in 2017: the tactical misstep which led us into this whole blind alley.
"Why would Yessers blame Alba when it would be clear that SNP put destruction of Alba ahead of the independence cause?"
DeleteI've answered that question already. They would see it as petty, destructive revenge, because that's exactly what it would be. As you say yourself, it would be "reactive" - revenge for its own sake. You need to step back and consider how this stuff would look to people outside the bubble.
Why would Yessers blame Alba when it would be clear that SNP put destruction of Alba ahead of the independence cause?
DeleteBecause they'd be doing the exact same thing you've just said the SNP should be blamed for doing. Not sure what you're not getting
Ok the emphasis on the confrontational in my first post was an error - let’s take the revenge element out of it then. Alba state their disappointment at SNP rejection of Scotland United. Indicate progress on independence vital, that SNP are not delivering that and can point to the polls as evidence that there’s a constituency of Scots voters who agree. They’re going to concentrate their resources on 4/5/6 seats, including those they hold obviously, to make a breakthrough with the voters. However if the SNP do see sense and come in behind the Scotland United idea then Alba will only defend the two seats they have and let the SNP do the same
DeleteI don’t see that under that scenario and positioning that Yessers would blame Alba just for running and trying to grow. If there’s such a large constituency of Yessers who would feel it unforgivable of Alba then surely Alba won’t get any significant share anyway? Even if they ‘cost’ the SNP 1 or 2 seats in that scenario it will likely be against a backdrop of significant losses anyway and the narrative will be about Humza’s leadership.
Finally the Greens didn’t seem to be punished by Yessers in the last Holyrood election for running candidates in WM2019? (I’m too lazy to look at the numbers there so happy to be challenged if someone can make that case)
Sooner or later the SNP is going to have to adopt this option or they'll get hammered at the next Westminster election, people will just see the SNP as the party denying Independence and if the SNP jump into bed with the Labour party it will be the end of the SNP who'll be jumping into bed with better together. Surely the SNP isn't that stupid, I wonder.
ReplyDeleteIf twitter is anything to go by, ALBA are focussed on the fantasy of displacing the SNP, which ironically can only have a chance of happening if they attack the Brit Nat branch offices rather than the SNP
ReplyDeleteI've never heard Salmond denigrate the SNP even after all he has been through. He hasn't even attacked Sturgeon. As for Twitter I don't use it and I do not understand the power it has considering at most 27pc of the UK population uses it and this is a high estimate (Statista). This is why I hate the way that 'Twitter storms' affect public policy and debate, our politicians should realise that the majority of the population and their views are not represented on this crappy platform.
DeleteI've just missed most of an interview of Alec Salmond by John Beattie on BBC Radio Scotland, About 17:454. What I caught was a firm statement that SNP continuity would not cut it and a unified slate of candidates should be adopted for the general election. Way to go Alec.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP leadership thinks pro indy voters will cave in and hold their noses once again and vote SNP. Wrong.
ReplyDeleteI will NOT vote SNP if the party rejects the Scotland United plan.
ReplyDeleteUnless Alex specifically recommends it, then I 'might' just hold my nose one last time.
However, I believe that the SNP are now the biggest obstacle, and no progress will be made until they are destroyed or expel the cuckoos - all of them.
I used to find the “under FTTP it’s either the SNP or the Brits” argument ultimately compelling, every time. Part of me will still find it agonising to stay home on polling day and not put my X next to the SNP as I’ve done in every single FTTP contest since I turned of voting age in 1999. It’ll hurt me as much as them.
DeleteBut when you take Indy off the table, you lose me. We’ll not me fooled again. This is the only way we have to send a message and send it we must.
Staying at home won't send a message. Spoiling your ballot sheet with INDEPENDENCE written diagonally across it, will. If enough people do it. All spoilt ballots get inspected by agents for the parties.
DeleteIf the SNP go down to less than 20 MPs and 32,000 ballots or more actually are spoilt in that identical way, that should send a message even to the thickest SNP hierarch cloth ear.
But those papers will just be recorded generically as "spoilt ballots" - nothing more.
DeleteWe’d
DeleteThis is entirely true.
I went to the Lothians count in 2003 as an observer (a friend was an activist in the SSP) and I remember very well watching the hand scrutiny of rejected ballots. It was a part of the process I’d never even considered before. Each spoiled ballot has to be determined by human eye, and of course consensus. The regular counters set aside the dubious ballots into a pile and every single one of them is gone through visually to determine if they’re really spoiled or still had “intent” to cast a legitimate vote.
For instance: is a “vote” which scrawls C*** in every box besides one, which is left blank, a vote for that lonesome candidate? Arguably yes! A few of these got through, I remember, though those with 2 or more blanks remained spoiled. I remember one vote of a handful on that theme which “voted” for a candidate by a cheeky wee smiling face, with everyone else getting unique naughty words. This vote was indeed accepted! Must have taken a fair while to scribble it all in the booth. There was artwork outside the boxes, too.
Only two parties actually bothered taking part in this scrutiny: the Tories and Labour, as I recall. The Tory had pinstriped trousers and read all the filthy words about his candidate out aloud with a chuckle! Must admit that was class!
Oh, the point of my anecdote:
DeleteSpoilt ballots are looked at quite briefly by only a handful of tired and jaded, apparatchik eyes. You’re not going to send a message to anyone, whatever you scribble. Even if it’s a dirty cartoon! They’re just trying to tie up lose ends in the small hours before the returning officer signs off the final result.
I’m weighing my options. Staying at home is in the lead. A terrifying slump in the SNP Westminster vote could work wonders. Or I could vote Alba in the unlikely chance they run a candidate. Unlikely because of incompetence, not tactical intelligence, going by the fact they had NONE on the (zero deposit) council ballot here.
But if the number of spoilt papers are exceptionally high...?
DeleteIt may come under this:
Delete"When undertaking the adjudication of ballot papers it is important to ensure that the process is carried out in full view of all candidates and agents present, as well as in the presence of any Commission representatives and accredited observers in attendance. This is a legal requirement and will also assist with providing transparency of decision making"
https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Doubtful_ballot_paper_booklet. pdf (remove space)
in which case those candidates, agents and observers will be able to see the 1,000 diagonally spoilt "INDEPENDENCE" ballot sheets themselves :-)
Pick your unfavourite MP and hope to see their face as they fail to get re-elected by a few hundred votes because Independence was NOT their absolute top priority ...
I agree James, but if a significant percentage of votes were spoilt would this not at least suggest discontent?
DeleteAlba basically have to stand in the two seats they currently hold - an MP who stands for re-election and loses gets a "loss of office" payment, while one who stands down does not, and it would be hugely unfair to expect them to give that up.
ReplyDeleteBut if the united approach is rejected, I'd argue that Alba should step aside in all other seats. I don't see any prospect of them winning any seats (including the two they currently hold), and as you say they'll be blamed if they stand and then the SNP lose the seat. Alba needs to not give HY that pretext.
The Britnat parliament in London says the Britnat ex PM Johnson is a liar. Anyone surprised?
ReplyDeleteThe SNP and Greens are are Brit Nat Wokist paerties with no interest in Scots Indy. A plague on both of them.
ReplyDelete