If you're voting by post today, please consider voting Alba on the list ballot - but make sure you vote SNP on the constituency ballot

Postal ballots are starting to arrive in people's homes today.  Because of the pandemic, more people than usual have applied for a postal vote, and we know from past history that a lot of people tend to return their votes straight away. So this is not a drill - for a substantial proportion of the population, today is election day, and voters are about to make decisions about Scotland's future that they won't be able to take back.

I want to urge all independence supporters to strongly consider voting for the Alba Party on the regional list ballot.  You do that simply by marking a cross in the box next to the Alba Party's name on the regional list ballot paper.  (Do not write a number in the box or your vote probably won't count.)  If you're unsure of why Alba is the best choice, here are seven good reasons I've blogged about earlier, but above all else just think about how you'll feel in May 2026 if yet another five-year parliamentary term has gone by without the SNP government using its mandate to hold an independence referendum.  

To be clear, I've no idea whether or not the SNP leadership privately intend to do something about independence over the next few years.  There's a very small, closed group of advisers around Nicola Sturgeon, and unless you're on the inside it's almost impossible to discern what their instincts and guiding principles are (other than extreme caution, of course - we can take that as read).  I've watched the SNP party election broadcast that came under criticism in some quarters, and I thought it was fantastic - it pushed every button for a true independence supporter and made the hairs on the back of my neck stand up.  But was that intended to set the stage for an endgame to the battle of wills with the UK government, or was it intended simply to exploit the passions of independence supporters to get the SNP re-elected so that they can stay in power and focus on other priorities, as they've done over the last five years?  I literally don't know - it could be either.

There's one thing I am sure of, though.  Nicola Sturgeon laughed at Willie Rennie when he suggested that Scotland didn't need the powers to introduce universal basic income, because we could supposedly persuade the UK government to introduce it for us.  "Persuade?  Persuade Boris Johnson?" she asked incredulously.  And yet that is exactly the position of the SNP leadership in respect of a Section 30 order paving the way for an independence referendum - they not only think Boris Johnson can be persuaded to grant one, but that it will somehow be "unsustainable" for him to refuse.  That contradiction is an insult to the intelligence of every independence supporter.  If we want an independence referendum, or some kind of equivalent democratic event to bring independence about, we're going to need to make it happen.  The UK government are not going to grant it out of the kindness of their hearts.

It doesn't exactly inspire confidence that the SNP have the mettle to make things happen when we hear today that one of their MSPs says he doesn't want to do anything until there is 70% support for independence in the polls - something that will plainly never occur.  To all intents and purposes it was a statement of opposition to independence.  Admittedly he's not exactly a key decision-maker, but it's troubling just the same.

Luckily we don't have to guess or wonder whether the Alba Party want to do something about independence over the next five years - this is a party of people who would gladly have independence yesterday if they could.  Given that we have a choice between the SNP and something better on the list ballot, it's really important that we vote for something better.  Don't let's wish in a couple of years' time that we hadn't squandered this opportunity.  Think about how much it will change the dynamic if Alba have enough MSPs to form an official group at Holyrood, thus allowing Alex Salmond to hold the government to account at First Minister's Questions every week.  Until now, the only pressure on Nicola Sturgeon has come from people who think she's going too far and too fast on independence.  Think of the difference it'll make if there's also pressure from those who think she's not doing enough, or that she's not doing it fast enough.  And it's not as if she'd just be able to brush that pressure off, because there would always be a danger of SNP MSPs (and MPs and councillors) defecting to a strong Alba party if it became clear that independence has been kicked into the long grass.

That said, it's equally important, and indeed absolutely vital, that you also vote SNP on the constituency ballot.  Again, you do that by marking a cross in the box next to the SNP candidate's name on the constituency ballot paper.  (Do not write a number in the box or your vote may not count.)  If you vote for any party other than the SNP on the constituency ballot, or indeed if you abstain, you are helping the unionist parties to win - it really is that simple.  In every single constituency in Scotland, the SNP are the only pro-independence party that can keep the leading unionist candidate out.  The Greens certainly can't do it.  (I know some people will quibble about Glasgow Kelvin, but even there the SNP are the leading pro-independence party by a country mile.)

To return to Alba, the other point worth making is that it's a party that has rooted itself firmly in the grassroots independence movement.  OK, there's an element of mutual self-interest in that, because the mainstream media aren't giving Alba a fair hearing, so it makes sense for Alba to use the movement as an alternative means of getting the message out.  But just contrast the way that Alba have embraced the movement with the way that the SNP have always kept us at a distance and treated us as a mild embarrassment.  Having been a pro-SNP blogger since 2008, I'm in a better position to know that than most.  Don't get me wrong, there are a number of leading individuals within the SNP who have been extremely kind and friendly towards me over the years - James Dornan, Ivan McKee and Angus Robertson all spring to mind.  (Angus comes in for a lot of criticism, but I can only speak as I find, and he seems to me to be a very genuine person.  He offered me some very helpful advice when I started running polls.  I'd have no hesitation in voting for him in Edinburgh Central, and whatever the virtues of Bonnie Prince Bob, fringe candidates really should be standing on the list rather than helping the Tories by splitting the pro-indy vote on the constituency ballot.)  But on an 'institutional' basis, I think it's fair to say that the SNP have deliberately kept the organic part of the movement at arm's length.

If you'll forgive me for being as pompous as the New York Times, the official Scot Goes Pop endorsement in this election is SNP on the constituency ballot, Alba on the regional list ballot.

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You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).