The datasets for last weekend's Panelbase poll were published a couple of days ago. Regardless of whether Don't Knows are excluded or not, the headline figures on independence are identical to the other very recent Panelbase poll commissioned by Business for Scotland, so unsurprisingly the detailed numbers for different demographic groups haven't changed much either. But there is one small point that marks the new poll out from all of the previous five Panelbase polls conducted in this calendar year. Look at how the percentage of Conservative voters who say they support independence has changed over time...
Percentage of Conservative voters who support independence (Panelbase polls in 2020):
2% (28th-31st January)
2% (24th-26th March)
4% (1st-5th May)
3% (1st-5th June)
5% (15th-19th June)
9% (30th June - 3rd July)
Tory voters are the one group who in recent years have been virtually unanimous in their opposition to independence - you don't get anything like such lopsided numbers among other typically anti-indy groups such as Brexit supporters and people who were born in England. But are things starting to change just slightly? Not necessarily, because the number of respondents involved is small, and it's possible the unusually high figure of 9% was produced by random sampling variation. This is well worth keeping an eye on for the future, though. Remember in the poll that I commissioned a month ago, one of the supplementary questions found that Tory voters were split down the middle on whether the Scottish public would be more safe or less safe if the UK government's powers relating to the lockdown were transferred to the Scottish government, which is not what you'd normally expect at all. The events of the pandemic may have caused some constitutional soul-searching in some very surprising places.
They never did release Scotland-only figures for the Tory leadership election last year did they?
ReplyDeleteI guess 5% for Johnson and 95% for the other Hunt
DeleteThe Tories before the pandemic would have a mindset that said the UK would be organised to deal with a pandemic and not Holyrood. However their eyes have been opened to the chaos of the UK Government compared to the measured organised way the Scottish Government have dealt with the crisis. Which part of the remaining 90% are not as hostile to Independence remains to be seen. Today's damp squib of the fiscal stimulation of the measly £10 in August won't have help Johnson's Government.
ReplyDeleteTory voters have selfish written through them like a stick of rock and are predominately old. They won't like the fact that Johnson clearly did not care if they lived or died. The possibility of keeping their taxes lower or staying alive. The more intelligent of them will say I choose life.
DeleteI suppose if you are of a Conservative mindset, the crucial question is be whether their best interest would be served by a local government of a different party that is competent and democratically accountable, or by a distant government of their preferred party but one that is incompetent and manifestly indifferent to their unique interests besides?
ReplyDeleteIn a PR electoral system in an independent Scotland, they would remain contenders and might even hope in due course to become (at least) a minority coalition partner. Just like Labour, their long-term interest is actually protected by independence; otherwise they will be increasingly seen as servile toadies to a foreign interest, and therein lies political oblivion.
This is whit as wis tryin tae tell GWC; it's unionists 'not respecting the 2014 result'. That's the only way to go from 45% to 54% Yes. Obviously.
ReplyDeleteIt also confirms what I've been saying to the 'we need a new list party!' folks; there's an opening on the centre right. The indy left is already saturated. If you want a whopping Yes vote, you need to bring over the more conservatively inclined. We are not talking about the neo-nazi voters here; they're all 'big powerful superior British'. Nope, more the blue rinse, small c's.
Here GWC, as a telt ye the ither day, ye need tae get doon tae the King Billy's Arms asap. Aw the punters er swinging tae indy while yer oan here wafflin mince.
DeleteSkier - good first paragraph - only the dimmest of Britnats would not see the truth in that comment.
DeleteSecond para - not so much. It is the people who voted for devolution in 97 that will be convinced and there weren't many of them from from the Conservative ranks..
Do you think it would help swing mair Tory voters to Yes if a left wing pro-indy list party manages to game the system, resulting in a hugely disproportionate number of MSPs, kicking out all the Tory MSPs?
ReplyDeleteAsking for a mate.
In Vichy France the Pétainists and Henriot listeners were the last to grab on to reality as it raced by them. Bienvenue en Écosse.
ReplyDeleteSnooty topical nat sis shit ponse.
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