Who's the novice?

Former Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell yesterday lambasted Alex Salmond for daring to meet Hillary Clinton (a meeting to which Ms Clinton must presumably have consented as well?), on the grounds that "this is no time for a novice" in international affairs. I can't really better the instant retort from the SNP that Sir Menzies was showing himself up as a "pompous ass" but two fairly obvious observations do occur to me. Firstly, whether or not this is any time for a novice, it's certainly no time for any self-respecting opposition politician to be proudly quoting, of all people, Gordon Brown! No surprise, of course, given the unmistakable way that he allowed his friendship with Brown to shape his decision-making during his spell as leader (not least at the time of the 2007 Holyrood election).

Second observation - although a few years older, Sir Menzies has in fact been a parliamentarian for exactly the same length of time as Alex Salmond. They were both first elected to Westminster in June 1987. Salmond has now been a government minister (holding a position that is at least the equivalent of cabinet rank in the UK government) for very nearly a full two years. Sir Menzies' ministerial experience consists of...well, quite. So on what grounds does he feel so secure in dismissing Salmond as the 'novice'? Does he deem his own participation in the Commonwealth Games as some kind of "international experience"?

SNP gain seat from Labour in Dundee by-election

I feel slightly fraudulent billing the Maryfield result as a 'gain' given that it's one of those strange situations that sometimes crop up in STV by-elections where the party that 'gained' had actually been ahead last time anyway. However, all I have to do is remind myself of the Labour spin the last time they 'gained' a seat in similar circumstances, and all my qualms melt away! There was in any case a small pro-SNP swing in Maryfield (about 1.4% by my rough calculation), and given that the swing is measured from the very high base of May 2007, this is another little straw in the wind suggesting that the SNP might just be doing very well nationally. The result on the final count -

SNP 1747
Labour 1189

Incidentally, I keep trying to think of a fairer way of filling vacancies under an STV system, but I can't think of anything remotely satisfactory. I suppose it's just a quirk of an otherwise good system that has to be endured.

Populus sub-sample : Labour recovery, but SNP still well ahead

As you might recall, last month's Populus sub-sample for Scotland showed Labour (rather improbably) languishing in third place with just 19% of the vote. In this month's breakdown released today, they have staged an eight-point recovery - but this is notably not at the expense of the SNP who have also slightly improved their position. Meanwhile the Tories have tumbled from second to fourth place. Here are the full figures -

SNP 43% (+1)
Labour 27% (+8)
Liberal Democrats 18% (+3)
Conservatives 11% (-9)
Others 2% (-2)

As ever, it's worth bearing in mind that the fluctuations in the figures are often due to the massive margin of error in sub-samples, rather than any real change of public opinion.

Unacknowledged victims

I mentioned this point on Twitter the other night - why do the media and politicians insist on treating the term 'domestic violence' as if it was interchangeable with 'violence against women'? In fact, more than that - as if it was interchangeable with 'violence against women committed by men'? There is a school of thought that women are in fact just as prone to violence within intimate relationships as men are (the level of violence among lesbian couples is sometimes cited as evidence, for instance), but even if this was to be dismissed as a fringe view, surely no-one would seriously deny that women sometimes commit acts of violence against a male partner?

Perhaps a useful analogy would be the military - women are for the most part now fully integrated into the armed forces. In spite of this the vast majority of those who fight and die for their country are still men. And yet the media and politicians would never dare gloss over the courage of the relatively small percentage of women involved - the typical phrase is "our brave men and women". So why treat male domestic violence victims as if they don't exist - or more to the point, as if their suffering doesn't matter enough to be even acknowledged?

The Earth is flat. North Korea is a democracy. Scotland is over-represented in the European Parliament.

Jeff at SNP Tactical Voting has written a very useful post highlighting Scotland's shocking under-representaion in the European Parliament compared to similar-sized European countries (we would be entitled to roughly twice as many seats if we were independent). But in the comments section, AM2 pops up and declares that, because all 78 UK MEPs almost always vote in the 'Scottish interest' (ahem), we are in fact - wait for it - grossly over-represented! "Not that I'm complaining!" he hilariously declares. A true return to form for Scottish blogging's self-styled 'Alpha Male' - a reminder of the golden days when he regularly turned such mind-bending logical gymnastics into a comedic art form.

Put-in is put-out, because Putin is put out

Having a slightly anarchic side to my character, my instinct was to wish the EBU would let Georgia's anti-Putin Eurovision song go forward to the contest. However the lyrics were so blatant that today's decision was utterly predictable. We've been here before of course with Ukraine in 2005, but that was a celebratory rather than an accusatory song so it was easier to change the lyrics without losing the essence. The expectation seems to be that Georgia will refuse to change the lyrics or to enter a different song, and indeed perhaps the 'martyrdom' of being banned from the contest is the outcome that would have suited them all along. It was always a fairly extraordinary thought that Georgia could compete in a country with which they were directly at war within the last twelve months.

Meanwhile, huge controversy that the Russian song looks set to be performed partly in Ukrainian. And yet last year's winning song entirely in English was absolutely fine? Have we got to the point where the English language is considered culturally 'neutral'?

Multiple options for a multi-option referendum

OK, I can't resist, one more outing for AM2-watch. In reply to the comments on his latest post berating all three unionist parties for not getting the anti-SNP "core message" right (only a true 'Alpha Male' could imagine that three completely separate political parties are all 'off-message' just because they happen to be diverging slightly from what he personally would like them to say!) he returns to the old red herring of the possibility of independence coming about on a 'minority vote' in a multi-option referendum. The example he gives is one in which independence and the status quo both received 35% of the vote on the first count, and the option of greater powers for the devolved parliament received only 30%. In this scenario, the second preference votes of those who voted for enhanced devolution would decide the result, and it would be perfectly conceivable that they could break in favour of independence. This is not AM2's "idea of democracy", he sniffs. The trouble is this result would perfectly accurately reflect what people had actually voted for - so what exactly is AM2's idea of democracy?

People wouldn't go into the voting booths with their eyes closed. Someone who supported enhanced devolution would know perfectly well that they were answering the question 'if your preferred option is no longer possible, would you prefer the status quo or independence?'. It may seem incredible to AM2 that such a person would opt for independence in response to that question, but if they did so in all conscience where is the problem? How would a majority obtained in that situation differ from one obtained in a single-option referendum on independence where supporters of enhanced devolution would still effectively be giving their second preference? Actually, the only difference is they wouldn't have the opportunity to express their first preference - how is that any more 'democratic'?

But there's a simple antidote to these utterly bogus objections to a multi-option referendum - and that is to conduct it under a run-off system. If none of the three options achieves an absolute majority, a second ballot would be held a week later to choose between the two most popular options. Then, everyone would know exactly where they stand, and there could be no question of anything going through "by the back door" or "on a minority vote".

Eurovision preview part 3 - Iceland

Jóhanna Guðrún Jónsdóttir
Is it true

"Falling out of a perfect dream
Coming out of the blue
Is it true? Is it true?
Is it over?
Did I throw it away?"

Anguish about the collapse of the Icelandic banking system cunningly disguised as a love song.

Having listened to this some more, I'll have to slightly revise what I said previously - it's now my firm favourite of the songs selected so far (not that I've remotely gone off Andorra, you understand). It's not desperately original, and at first it sounds pleasant but unspectacular, but it's one of those songs that really gets under your skin after a second or third listen. Can it win? Songs as gentle as this don't have a fantastic track record of winning outright - in the last twenty years I think the only ones have been Rock'n'Roll Kids and Fly on the Wings of Love (both of which had more of an obvious gimmick than this song), and In Your Eyes (which had a bigger, almost screechy finish). So I wouldn't bet my house on it, but if there's any justice in the world there might just be celebrations rather than economic riots on the streets of Reykjavik in May.

Mauve pigs spotted on Jupiter. In other news, Muriel Gray might vote SNP.

I know it's high time I gave the AM2-bashing a miss, but I can't help but be amused that he actually chose to draw attention to Muriel Gray's article in the Sunday Herald. OK, her stated disdain for the CyberNats was understandably music to the ears of the self-styled 'Alpha Male' of Scottish political blogging, but anyone who remembers Ms Gray's hysterical remarks about the SNP during the 2007 election campaign will instantly spot the true significance of the article. The fact that she's evidently toying with the idea of voting SNP is truly extraordinary!

ComRes sub-sample : SNP storm back into lead

The latest Scottish sub-sample from ComRes published tonight provides a measure of corroboration for YouGov's findings from a few days ago - both show a significant Labour lead being transformed into a small SNP advantage. This means that three of the last four Scottish sub-samples of UK-wide polls have shown the SNP ahead. The full figures are -

SNP 29% (+5)
Labour 25% (-13)
Conservatives 22% (+13)
Liberal Democrats 16% (-1)
Others 9% (-2)

As usual, I'll note that sub-samples of UK polls are inherently unreliable - and indeed because of the smaller sample size this probably applies even more so to ComRes and Populus polls than to YouGov.