Friday, June 19, 2026
By-election analysis
Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at The National analysing last night's three by-election results, which you can read HERE. I'll try to make a video later on as well, although having stayed up most of the night, I'm a bit groggy-eyed at the moment.
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The results are purely turnout driven. That is the one consistent and stark factor in the results. SNP share went up in Abroath vs the British opposition who’s voters are more likely to turn out for their own national elections. Ergo, no Murrell effect evident whatsoever, as per polling indicators.
ReplyDeleteIn Makerfeild, it was 58.7%, so this is a Scottish thing. It’s not a general pattern.
There is so much which is utterly bonkers in Skier's comment above that it would take a while to unpack. It's misleading nonsense from start to finish. Nice one, Declan!
DeleteThe calculation of Labour Together leading light and spook adjacent, Josh Simons to stand down and force a poisoned chalice onto Andy Burnham has backfired spectacularly. Burnham was supposed to loose to Reform UK, but peak Farage has passed and their candidate for the by-election was a complete numpty.
ReplyDeleteGreetings to you my predictable IFS. A message from Celine Gottwald.
DeleteBurnham is a snake in sheep’s clothing.
ReplyDeleteHe makes vague noises about manufacturing industry and the North / South divide, but we’ve heard that before. Remember Boris Johnson’s “Levelling up”?
Hate to mix my animal metaphors, but on Palestine he’s a weasel. A member of Labour Friends Of Israel. Actively opposed to BDS. He refuses to acknowledge the genocide in Gaza because (paraphrase) “I’m just a humble Major of Greater Manchester and I can’t possibly be expected to have an opinion on international matters.”.
Yeah, the mass murder of woman and children is such a nuanced topic.
Aberdeen South is a disaster for the union, especially for the Tories.
ReplyDeleteHi James. You are correct to argue that the Aberdeen South SNP loss was both self-inflicted (by Stephen Flynn MSP) and avoidable. I'd go further than that, however.
ReplyDeleteThe North Sea oil and gas wounds are self-inflicted by both the Westminster and the Scottish governments, noting that most (but not all - see onshore infrastructure planning consents) of the relevant responsibilities lie with the former rather than the latter. In my view, the SNP should be promoting upstream & midstream petroleum sector development in Scotland in order to boost jobs & wealth. They could do so alongside all their green energy stuff, i.e. energy addition not "net zero", cajoling Westminster to drill baby drill & saying that the Scottish government would be partners in such a positive economic endeavour. And meanwhile telling the Scots Greens to shove off, politely or otherwise.
In the above circumstances, the Aberdeen South loss would have been avoided in all likelihood.
Oh and by the way, Skier, the correct grammar is "whose voters" not "who's voters" you great clot.
Not a grammatical point, but a stylistic horror to see an ampersand used (more than once) in continuous text, rather than 'and'. Please eschew this future homilies, thank you.
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