It's the middle of the night as I post this, but I'll just briefly give you the by-election result, because it's a second impressive win for the SNP in as many weeks. I'll also try to make a video about the result at some point, but that might have to wait 24 hours or so.
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election result (6th November 2025):
SNP 42.6% (-4.9)
Reform UK 28.9% (n/a)
Labour 20.8% (-19.5)
Liberal Democrats 2.6% (+0.4)
Alba 2.2% (+0.9)
Conservatives 1.7% (-4.8)
Sovereignty 1.2% (n/a)
Reform UK 28.9% (n/a)
Labour 20.8% (-19.5)
Liberal Democrats 2.6% (+0.4)
Alba 2.2% (+0.9)
Conservatives 1.7% (-4.8)
Sovereignty 1.2% (n/a)
What leaps out at first glance is the following -
* On a uniform swing, the result is consistent with the SNP having a mammoth nationwide lead over Labour of around 26 percentage points - although of course Labour would no longer be in second place anyway due to the surge for Reform, who appear to have scored their best ever result in Scotland.
* Alba are on their customary 2% of the vote and are clearly going nowhere. We've seen this type of result enough times by now to know what the propaganda line from Alba HQ will be, ie. "we've increased our vote, we've beaten the Tories", but it doesn't really matter a damn if you occasionally get the better of a larger party on a localised basis - all that matters is whether you are polling strongly enough to win at least one list seat somewhere, and Alba clearly aren't and never have been.
* However, the fact that Alba were able to run a candidate at all in this by-election is of some significance, because it means Chris McEleny has not yet rescinded the letter of authorisation (or email of authorisation, or whatever it was) that he sent to the Electoral Commission at some point before he was expelled from the party in order to allow Corri Wilson to deputise for him as the party's Nominating Officer. The million dollar question is whether he has insisted on remaining as Nominating Officer since his expulsion (and remember the Alba leadership have no power to sack him) because he intends to withdraw Wilson's authorisation between now and the Holyrood election, thus blocking Alba from running any list candidates, or whether he's just sort of trolling his former party by making them sweat and leaving them to guess what his big plan is.
* In a sense this by-election was also a rare test for the Barcelona-headquartered Liberate Scotland alliance, aka "Greater Prism". Although there was no candidate running on the Liberate Scotland label, the far-right component of the alliance (Sovereignty) stood under their own name. However they performed even more poorly than Alba and took just 1% of the vote.
* .* .*
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Find Out Now, Westminster voting intention, field work 5 - 6 Nov.
ReplyDeleteUK headlines; RefUK 15% lead, no change week on week, Labour on record equaling low of 15%, Greens on Starmer usurping high of 18%. Sayonara Labour.
Scottish sub-sample (154) for what little it’s worth.
Con 9%, Lab 15%, LibDem 11%, RefUK 27%, Green 7%, SNP 28%.
More in Common, Westminster voting intention, field work 31 Oct - 3 Nov.
ReplyDeleteUK headlines; RefUK 12% lead (over Tories in 2nd place), no change week on week, but Labour -3%, only YouGov now have Labour above teens (just).
Scottish sub-sample (118)
Con 9%, Lab 19%, LibDem 20%, RefUK 21%, Green 5%, SNP 26%.
Tories are in single figures in these sub-samples quite a lot these days.
The turnaround in the snp's fortunes under John Swinney has been ridiculously good. IFS will be raging at this result.
ReplyDeleteSGP’s very own in house clown, Declan, turns up again. 26% and 28% vote share in the above polls says Declan is talking nonsense again.
DeleteYou did get far enough through school to learn about negative numbers, right, Declan?
DeleteLabour's utter collapse is sparing Swinney's SNP from a spanking. Ask around. People are sick and tired of Scotgov. But where else have they to turn?
Obviously you have turned to reform.
DeleteRidiculously good if you oppose Independence? You do know their support is under 40%? While you are here please explain Swinney’s strategy, which is based on disregarding votes for all Indy parties except SNP. On you go Declan.
DeleteYooh hooh Declan, where are you? Answer the question Declan.
DeleteHe'll be out punching the sky as usual.
DeleteHave to agree with Declan, Swinney has really turned the ship around.
DeleteDeclan agreeing with himself. The ship is going around. Round and round in circles.
DeleteDeclan I just laugh at your pathetic comments.
DeleteI don’t see any party getting an overall majority at HR, not even SNP + SG. It’s highly possible that Reform will be the largest party if they keep up their rate of growth. However no one will go into coalition with them so what is the most likely pairing to stop Reform? SNP + SG + LD might not be enough so do they rope in Labour or Tories?
ReplyDeleteReform are a UK party - of course, if push comes to shove, the Westminster affiliated parties at Holyrood will back them for any assistance they can get - as well as the wee anti-SNP at all cost indy bods who like a wee chat with Nige.
Deletereform is just taking tory votes with an additional few racists thrown in. They wont win HR
DeleteReform UK don't have a hope of beating the SNP on their own, but we know Labour and Tories will stand with them to hold on to Scotland, then very soon after that Scotland will be independent
DeleteTrue on the face of it Declan. We have to try to make sure that the SNP vote is not the kind of 'anyone but them' bubble that carried the inept and nasty Starmer into Downing Street. Mr. Swinney has to deliver some substance or face another wave of blind despair.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the makeup of this seat, the size of the Reform share is not a surprise. Labour should be a tad worried.
ReplyDeleteAll 3 main parties could lose a lot of support to Reform.
DeleteRight wing anti-immigrant Tories. Populist loving nationalists formerly drawn to the SNP. Lower demographic Labour supporters who tend to gravitate to gravitate towards extreme right wing ideaology for whatever reason.
Probably just those nice Lib Dem’s who are immune but they’re usually pretty inconsequential.
I don't understand why Alba hatred of the SNP is showing them rather vote Reform UK than SNP, this must surely prove that Alba were never supporters of our country
ReplyDelete"SNP 42.6% (-4.9)
ReplyDeleteReform UK 28.9% (n/a)"
My take on this is that despite the unrest and disenchantment inroads made by Reform, which would affect SNP voters just as much as any others in general, it's only caused the SNP to lose 5% - a figure which is easily recovered if the SNP can reverse the general disappointment the electorate have with all politicians.
Which, in those famous words, leaves it "all to play for".
And I'm not convinced the Reform vote will hold up next May.
I see the usual Alba-Wings-Reform-Unionist dross on here are, yet again, upset by SNP electoral success.
ReplyDeleteThese whinging wastes of space are nothing if not consistent.
As Reform's hero and mentor Trump continues to turn America into fascist dictatorial State and his polling numbers continue to crash and burn as a result, so will the paper-thin credibility of Farage and his bunch of racist fascist imbeciles.
Never mind though, the Alba and Wings cohort of those imbeciles will undoubtedly go down with Nigels sinking tub.
Every dark cloud has a silver lining.
It's not Alba Wings Reform, it's just the left overs of Salmond's collection of SNP Sturgeon haters who were always unionists
DeleteAccording to Dr Jim at 11.30pm if you are not a nicophant you are a Unionist. People like him have helped drive the SNP membership down by 50,000 and the SNP in the polls to 35% when independence is at 55%. Unionists must love people like Jimbo.
DeleteThe SNP vote in Fife was on a similar par with that achieved in Stirling last week.
ReplyDelete