The full-scale Scottish poll from Norstat showing a decent SNP lead was already enough to say with a reasonable level of confidence that the recent weird string of Scottish subsample results from GB-wide polls had been leading us astray, but it's nevertheless reassuring to see normal service being resumed in the latest YouGov subsample.
GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 1st-2nd June 2025):
Reform UK 28% (-1)
Labour 22% (+1)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+2)
Greens 9% (-2)
SNP 3% (+1)
Labour 22% (+1)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+2)
Greens 9% (-2)
SNP 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Reform UK 26%, Labour 17%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 3%
It's passing by without much comment, but the Scottish Tories seem to be sleepwalking towards...well, maybe not quite an extinction event, because they'll probably still have Holyrood seats after next year, but they look set to be downgraded from the leading opposition party to fourth, fifth or sixth place.
Meanwhile at GB-wide level, the Tories once again find themselves more or less level-pegging with the Liberal Democrats.
*. *. *.
I have a new article at The National, looking ahead to the Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse by-election - you can read it HERE.
It's a mystery why Labour are as high as 17% in Scotland. Are they all the families of MSPs and MPs?
ReplyDeleteAll they have left are SNP haters, flute and drum aficionados, and generational voters - "ah votit fur the Labour man cos ma da votit fur the Labour man an ma granda votit fur the Labour man. It's guid enough fur me."
DeleteAnonymous at 3:57, aye there in lies the problem, their record in government
DeleteThat was in reply to a deleted post!
DeleteWho is Reforms....ahem...leader in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteNot that wee rotund chappie Kerr is it surely?
The SNP don't want independence , they want to keep their highly paid jobs.
ReplyDeleteWhy would independence put an end to their highly paid jobs?
DeleteTheir salaries are pretty crap given what any of them could earn in the private sector where they'd only be expected to do a third of the hours the average SNP MSP puts in. You underestimate the nature of their jobs. If MSP salaries were so great, there would be endless queues of people rushing to stand to be an MSP. They have little life out of work and most folk would not be prepared to take on their work/lack of free life combination.
DeleteDifferent for MSPs with no governmental commitments and accountability. It's a much tougher day job than you imagine.
It's simple just vote snp to keep the tories and red tories and also reform tories out. Scotland can not afford to sleepwalk into UK oblivion.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 8.59. And you are doing what exactly to bring about change? SFA by any chance.
DeleteAnon@7:01,
DeleteEmbarrassing post.
This byelection will be a landslide win for the SNP, with Labour only in third place
ReplyDeleteI think landslide is a bit ambitious but I am expecting them to win. The SNP's problem in recent years has been getting their vote out. The anti Reform message will work here but it will need something much more positive next year.
DeleteI agree Hugh. At the moment I wouldn't even bet on SNP winning, let alone a landslide. Middle earners in Hamilton are suggesting they'll vote for Farage because they think he is a good bet to put bucks in their pockets and keep them comfortable. They don't think the SNP has the financial clout to improve their lifestyles and Farage is sowing the notion of Westminster backed magic beans. People are viewing Farage as the buck in the pocket magician.
DeleteRealistically, the worst case scenario is a pyrrhic victory for the SNP in which Reform run them so close that the win feels as much like a defeat. I think even that is unlikely though.
DeleteOh yeah feel the tears running down IFS's face lol.
ReplyDeleteDeclan who has nothing to say but childish comments. At least Declan has stoped making forecasts.
DeleteKaty Loudon is an excellent candidate. If elected, she will be a shot in the arm for the independence cause.
ReplyDeleteLOL.
Delete