In the run-up to the Hamilton by-election, there was a troubling string of eight polls in a row that had the SNP on a relatively low 2% of the GB-wide vote. Ironically, now that the SNP have lost that by-election, the ship seems to have been steadied - five of the last seven GB-wide polls have had the SNP on 3%, suggesting that normal service has been resumed. Here is the latest from Find Out Now -
GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 11th June 2025):
Reform UK 30% (-1)
Labour 24% (+2)
Conservatives 16% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 13% (-2)
Greens 11% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 32%, Reform UK 22%, Labour 22%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 4%
As far as I know Find Out Now don't structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly like YouGov do, but I've given you the numbers for information anyway.
It looks both from this poll and other polls that there may have been a minor GB-wide recovery for Labour, albeit from a very low base. Possibly the U-turn on winter fuel allowance has helped them a bit. However, the plight of the Tories remains unchanged - Find Out Now have them on only half the vote of Reform, and with the Lib Dems within striking distance of overtaking them.
It's hard to believe the Tories will continue to sleepwalk into oblivion in the way they have been - surely at some point they'll at least roll the dice by changing leader to see if that makes a difference. The betting markets still have Robert Jenrick as the favourite to replace Kemi Badenoch, although he's not odds-on and is rated as roughly a one-in-three chance.
So just two years and four days after you predicted an SNP-Labour coalition, Andy Maciver predicted it too? Wow, that's impressive, Stew! Most of us think a prediction has only come true when the predicted thing actually happens, but hey, you do you!
Let wait and see the effect of Angus Robertson`s pronouncement. How do you think this will go down with the rank and file?
ReplyDeleteThe fact that you even think that's a serious point shows how hopelessly caught in a bubble some people are. The idea that enough people will know or care about what Angus Robertson said to make a measurable difference to public voting intentions is risible.
DeleteAs far as SNP members are concerned, they certainly care about the SNP delivering independence, but whether they're that bothered about the refusal to give a slice of the action to fringe parties like Alba and "Greater Prism" is another matter.
Ask the general public who the Scottish independence parties are and the answer is the SNP anybody else is an I don't know or an irrelevance
DeleteTo most ordinary voters Angus Robertson is a breed of beef cattle fae Eh berdeen eh? well that's the Dundee folk onyway
Has Declan tried to punch the air and missed again over a Scottish sub sample showing SNP on 32%.
ReplyDeleteAch, there's always ISP.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteIsn't that exactly what ISP are doing at the moment, under the Liberate / Greater Prism umbrella?
DeleteDry your eyes IFS, hope you don't mess the bed when John Swinney wins the election next year.
DeleteFair point James. I'll revise my thoughts to say there is no vehicke for independence.
DeleteOnly a Tory Brit would say that IFS, and it's Yoooo!!
DeleteYou see Declan that has always been the difference between you and me. You are an SNP supporter. A party person whether or not they do anything about Scottish independence. I am for Scottish independence not John Swinney who has always been a devolutionist. That makes you a Britnat Declan/ Irish Skier/Scottish Skier/French Skier/ Ross Anderson.
DeleteDeclan a wee reminder that you get everything wrong. You were the diddy that said the SNP would get more MPs in 2024 than they got at the previous UK election. They got 48MPs in 2019 but 9 in 2024 - that's right Declan 9 MPs. You also claimed that Yousaf was doing great but a few days later he was gone. But the most cringe inducing of your forecasts was your regular updates to your Skier ski jump graph that kept telling WGD readers that independence was just around the corner. Your graph no longer appears but you do keep saying independence is just going to happen tomorrow - but tomorrow never happens does it. Skier you are the king of all the SNP diddies who live in a weird fantasy world.
Anon at 10.55pm that makes you a right numpty. Go on numpty tell me the SNP plan for independence. Have they saved a date again. People like you truly are as thick as a brick.
So IFS accepts that he is a Tory Brit. We did all know but his acceptance is an important step on his road to recovery.
DeleteAnon at 7.55pm posting lies again. What SNP branch are you a member of ?
DeleteIs the Scottish sub sample actually the answers of Scots or is it calculated from the Scotland / UK population and the SNP result condensed into that? Sorry for being slow.
ReplyDeleteIt's real people in Scotland, but they're not necessarily demographically representative.
Delete... they're not necessarily demographically representative.
DeleteIs that what YouGov do that the others don't?
Yes.
DeleteI’m “rank and file” SNP and I’ve no idea what Angus Robertson comment is being referenced above. Nor do I care.
ReplyDeleteThere are only two Indy parties that matter electorally, us and the Scottish Greens. They are anti-economic growth, anti-jobs and anti-industry. Given how much we as a nation desperately need more of all three, they are would-be allies on Indy that represent more of a threat to the Yes movement than an opportunity.
Yes can be a success only through and under the 100% leadership of the SNP.
So anon at 5.40pm says "yes can be a success only through and under the 100% leadership of the SNP." Yet this same SNP member says he disnae care what a member of the SNP leadership, Angus Roberson, has to say. Gives you an idea why the SNP have plummeted in the polls and elections as well as losing approx 75,000 members.
DeleteThe public has certainly noticed the SNP putting independence on the back burner. You don't even need to know who Shug is to notice there's been hee-haw done on independence in donkey's years.
DeleteIt's the party's reason to exist. Ignore it at your peril.
Ach, there's always Peter Bell.
DeleteAnd IFS. I know, Iknow.
DeleteAnon at 8.33pm are you so thick that you haven't cottoned on to the fact that I am not a politician.
DeleteSays the Idiot who completely failed to understand what I was saying. Oh the irony. Love it.
DeleteAnon troll at 2.33pm if you post a mixture of gibberish and nonsense don't be surprised if you are the only person who understands what you are prattling on about. My suggestion to you is go back to school and listen to the teachers this time.
DeleteIFs couldn't muster 1 vote on a good day
ReplyDeleteAnon at 8.56pm the same goes for you - you are probably the same diddy from 8.33pm - I have no desire to muster any vote. You people really really are so dense.
DeleteSo called independence parties SNP/Scottish Greens currently have a majority at Holyrood but do nothing about independence despite getting votes on the back of a promise to progress independence. The SNP got 56 out of 59 MPs in 2015 and again did nothing about Scottish independence.
ReplyDeleteCurrently, the SNP are in the low 30% vote share range compared to 47.7% vote share in 2021 and approx 75,000 members have left the party.
The SNP managed to appoint the arch Britnat and author/publisher of The Vow as their Chief Exec after the previous Chief Exec resigned for telling lies about membership numbers. That Chief Exec is now being prosecuted for embezzlement and funds raised for Indyref2 have disappeared.
So this is the party that some people believe is a party that will progress independence. Lots of voters and ex members think otherwise. I'm pretty sure many members don't believe the SNP leadership will do anything about independence.
Well ISP won’t get us independence, that’s for sure!
DeleteIf the Monster Raving Looney party stood a candidate in your constituency you’d be as well voting for him/her.
Who needs the Monster Raving Loony Party when we have Sovereignty and Liberate Scotland?
DeleteBoo boo, off off. Boring repetitive crap from Idiot for Scotland. We need a new clown to mock. What about one of his wee helpers?
ReplyDelete12.05pm. What branch of the SNP are you a member of?
DeleteWhy are you interested.? You have said repeatedly not a member of the SNP (lucky break for them). Remind me your 5 point plan or any plan to achieve independence? Nope, you don't have one
ReplyDeleteAnon numpty at 3.04pm seems to know what I repeatedly say yet claims I have not proposed anything re independence. Another lying troll. I have repeatedly stated since 2020 on SGP that there should be a de facto referendum.
DeleteProve you are a member of the SNP. What is your branch?
What is the SNP plan for independence?
As usual, folk like IFS have no real workable answers to anything much.
ReplyDeleteThey slink around under meaningless invented names regurgitating anything and everything which comes from their Bath guru, even though, as James has consistently pointed out, Campbell either lies through his teeth or conveniently forgets his previous nonsense which was later shown to be a load of tosh.
IFS and his like are no use to anybody for anything.
As someone recently posted, they are nothing but a Waste of Space.
4.05pm you are an idiot. IFS in the post above your post points out he has been advocating a de facto referendum since 2020. I don’t believe Campbell of Bath has ever advocated a de facto referendum but Sturgeon did and then reneged on the promise. So once again anon your post is full of blatant lies.
ReplyDeleteIndependence for Scotland may be meaningless to a unionist troll like you but not to independence supporters. The only slinking about is by you hiding among the anon crowd like a snake in the grass.
Anon at 9.52 is IFS.
DeleteAnon troll at 10.22pm and 4.05pm is very upset because he has a great big dollop of egg on his face. You have been exposed as a liar once again troll. That won't stop you lying again in the future because that is your job. Does the SNP pay you the minimum wage to lie your face off on blogs or is it Westminster?
DeleteIt's no secret I have been advocating a de facto referendum on SGP for more than 5 years now but you, troll, lie that I follow the Bath guru. Funny how you, troll, also say I am Campbell at times and then at other times I was expelled from WOS.
You could make a case that I follow Sturgeon ( 😃🤣🤣🤣🤣) as she advocated a de facto referendum but that wouldnae fit in to your preferred lies.
Your prejudiced mind just cannae understand someone having an independent mind.
Anon at 9.52pm is right you are a snake in the grass slithering about SGP.