What I've found dispiriting about this situation all along is that it's hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel, because whenever John Swinney does depart, regardless of whether it's this year or in five years' time, his replacement is highly likely to be either Kate Forbes or Stephen Flynn, and to the best of my knowledge neither of them are likely to restore the policy of a de facto referendum. Without that it's hard to see how you ever get to independence. That said, during the 2023 leadership election, I was struck by how much more positive the mood music on independence was from Kate Forbes than from Humza Yousaf, and how she was talking about achieving it quickly, even if I couldn't quite fathom how she planned to do it. Alex Salmond also told me on the phone that he thought Forbes was a supporter of independence, which may seem like quite a low bar to clear, but by that point he tended to dismiss many leading SNP figures as devolutionists.
But I presume that the main reason Swinney is leader right now is precisely to keep Forbes out because some people at the top of the party can't stomach her private religious views. It's hard to see that roadblock to change being cleared before the 2026 election, because Stephen Flynn is still in Westminster. As far as I can remember the rule hasn't been altered to prevent non-MSPs from standing for leader, so in theory if an early vacancy arose Flynn could put himself forward on the basis that he will nominate a stopgap First Minister to hold the fort until next May, but a) that would look like a very odd arrangement to the public, and b) if the stopgap was anyone other than Kate Forbes (and I bet it would be) it would look nakedly factional and open up a whole new can of worms. I'm still inclined to think it would be better just to give Forbes a go as leader and see what she can do. I'm not particularly bothered about her views on sex before marriage or whatever because to the best of my knowledge she's not actually planning to set up a Free Church of Scotland theocratic dictatorship.
Incidentally, on James Dornan's suggestion that the SNP should pledge to hold a referendum with or without a Section 30 order, although I thoroughly approve of the gung-ho attitude, I'm not sure how that could legally be done in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling. There are no legal issues with a de facto referendum and that is obviously the way forward.
Swinney is doing alright, which is probably both harder than it sounds, given the fractious nature of the broad church SNP, and at the same time not quite good enough. But as you rightly say James, who would be better at this moment?
ReplyDeleteIn any case, a significant opponent of the SNP next year will be its own longevity. It’s high time for a reshuffle and for some fresh talent and ideas to come in. Scunnered voters don’t want to see the same weel kent faces election after election.
As for the troublesome 25, assuming they exist, they would be better served putting their energies into thinking up some eye catching and popular policies rather than skulking about in the shadows.
Jobbie, the most popular policy is independence. 54% yes and SNP in the low 30%. You don’t need the 25 to think up more crap policies like self ID. The answer is obvious to anyone with half a brain. Its independence and the fact that the SNP have deserted it.
DeleteI agree anon. Crap policies have led us to this moribund state. I was hoping for good policies! Could the truculent 25 not instead scour our many European neighbours for good ideas that we could adapt, assuming they lack the wit to create them themselves?
DeleteIt could be something as simple as baby boxes. Doesn’t cost much, sounds socially just, probably quite popular (I’m guessing) and hard to oppose without sounding bitter and twisted. Nothing too earth-shattering but ticks a few boxes if you’ll pardon the pun.
The more such ideas the merrier. Ideally they can be implemented quickly and do some good for the country, also building confidence in our ability to govern. But any that are blocked by the fact of our presence in the UK are all grist to the mill when it comes to independence.
Which brings me back to your point. Yes, independence is currently popular, but it’s also not seen as a top priority by most voters. Their concerns are more immediate and pressing - health, economy, education.
We have to tie these things together. Why do we want independence? What would we do with it to improve people’s lives? What are we prevented from doing by being stuck in the UK? As independence supporters we should all have a long list of solid, realistic and practical answers to these questions that we are ready to reel off. But we shouldn’t have to invent them on our own. The SNP has had enough time, money and manpower over the last 15 years to provide them to us on a silver platter. Maybe I just missed the memo. If so I’d love to be pointed in the right direction.
Jobbie, yes independence is not seen as a priority because they see no sign of that being a possibility under the SNP any time soon and as you rightly say they are insufficiently informed as to how independence will improve health, education, cost of living etc. The SNP gov actually produce the GERS report telling them Scotland is an economic basket case with a massive deficit ( total fiction ). The exact opposite of what they should be doing.
DeleteThey need to point to Norway to demonstrate the benefits of independence and explain why a pint is expensive in Norway. Or are all the MPs and MSPs economically ignorant .
Ach, we can always have a pro-Indy match doon the Royal Mile. A nice day out !
DeleteWe can also have an Indy march up the Royal Mile.
DeleteA de facto referendum was the way forward in 2021 and it is still the way forward. A majority yes vote could have been achieved in 2021. The SNP leadership didn't bottle it they deliberately lied about the gold standard referendum etc etc.being just around the corner.
ReplyDeleteSwinney in his own words on a tv programme told the people of Scotland that he strongly advised Sturgeon not to go for a referendum when she was FM. Yet some people think Swinney will deliver independence. Spoiler alert for numpties like Declan and Dr Jim. He won't because he has always been a devolutionist and election loser.
Swinney, wrongly, thought he could diverge from the Sturgeon approach of lying that she would do something about independence and still win elections. He thought that because of Labour's collapse in the polls and Reform also splitting the Britnat vote. His pathetic promise of a possible initiative in Jan 26 on independence is nothing but a cynical contingency to shore up the SNP vote if he thinks he needs it in the run up to Holyrood 26. Swinney is a devolutionist - frankly, as Sturgeon would say, that means he is a Britnat.
So why did Yousaf the Brief and Swinney the Redactor get the FM job? First reason was to ensure that Sturgeon was not prosecuted. Second reason was to reward them for their loyalty to Sturgeon with a nice FM pension for the rest of their life. They certainly didn't get the job to do anything about independence.
IFS, here you are once again letting off steam by slagging the SNP, its leader and previous leaders. You and everyone else who supports independence should be getting behind the party, instead of criticising them every day. They are the only party, realistically, who can deliver independence after all..
DeleteIn elections you say you vote ISP, what is the point of that? What the hell does that achieve? It’s the equivalent of somebody in England voting for the Monster Raving Looney party.
Wise up!
Anon at 10.17am You telling me to wise up is hilarious.
DeleteWhen and how will the SNP deliver independence? Just when do you think Swinney will get his >70% yes in the polls. Go on give me another laugh.
Are you one of the anon numpties that told me Sturgeon would deliver Indyref2 in 2021? Or are you one of the numpties that told me Sturgeon would deliver it in 2022? Or are you one of the numpties that SAVED THE DATE in 2023. Remember that.
It's long overdue people like you wised up.
The SNP leadership are full of devolutionists riding the Britnat gravy train called Westminster and Holyrood.
Ifs, I note in your reply to anon at 10:17 you don’t explain why you waste your vote by voting ISP.
DeleteMost people will see a vote for a minor party like that as effectively a vote for the union. How do you explain your thinking?
Absolutely IFS. Defacto ref and they'll get my vote, same old wishy washy lying, no chance.
DeleteAnon at 12.54pm your arrogance is astonishing. Just how do you think I am accountable to you anon as to how I use my vote?
DeleteMany people think that a vote for the SNP is a vote for the status quo - effectively a vote for the union. Try explaining their thinking in wasting a vote on the SNP before demanding anything from me.
I will vote SNP when they become independence supporters again and not gravy slurping devolutionists - effectively unionists - not that there really is any union in practical terms. The union was always a con - and the con favoured England.
Ifs, you just don’t get it do you?
DeleteBy voting for a minor party you’re potentially helping a unionist party beat the SNP. Presumably that’s your aim, I can see no other explanation.
Still nothing from Ifs on how he justifies voting ISP, thereby wasting his vote and potentially helping to hand a seat to the unionists.
DeleteStill nothing from anon on how he justifies voting SNP, thereby wasting his vote and condemning Scotland to be used and abused by Westminster for more years.
DeleteWhat a hideous response from Ifs.
DeleteI guess no great surprise though.
Britnat KC at 9.29pm if it upsets you then I guess my post is spot on.
DeleteCan everyone go easy on Idiot for Scotland please. He isn’t the sharpest.
DeleteKC, I don't particularly like having pre-moderation on, and it's only on temporarily until the hairy hordes from the Stew Fan Club lose interest, but it does at least allow me to intercept your comments before they ever appear. What puzzles me is that you don't let up even when you know your comments will never see the light of day. You could call that 'outcome-independence', or you could call it a man in desperate need of a new hobby.
ReplyDeleteThe poor wee soul has to stick to his masters' timetable, no matter the outcome.
DeleteI don't think the religiosity truly has anything to do now with how people respond to Kate Forbes. I think the leadership stramash highlighted her immaturity in that she agreed to publicly trash her party and her colleagues for global consumption and whilst those who orchestrated that, did it intentionally for cynical reasons - it did make Forbes look as if she was very malleable to being managed by others. Maybe you had to be outside the bubble to come to that conclusion - but she didn't seem to have looked beyond that 'event' and adopt the posture of a professional potential leader. She behaved like a puppet.
ReplyDeleteThe objection which most often gets flung in her direction seems to be her enabling of business and investment choices, which some think are kow towing to the neoliberal model. The Deputy role should have given her a more rounded experience of what it would take to be leader, immersing her in a wider accountability experience - and given that things overall are so tense and difficult at this time, I'm not entirely sure that she is struggling a bit and doesn't yet have the overall maturity to handle all of the nitty gritty wider range of true leadership pressures. I don't think she is near ready - and is still too much influenced by fairweather puppet master SNP discontents and movement chums with self-interested interests in her.
From her tv appearances on debate type programmes and often in the media in general, she flounders too often and isn't sharp enough in any area other than her pet interests. Not rounded enough, not mature enough. But - if the movement are still aiming for her to be malleable for them - she would probably be one of the obvious 'yes I'll do whatever you tell me to' candidates. Although a lot in the movement are very suspicious of her perceived neoliberal investment choices so far and don't seem overly happy about that.
Well anon at 10.44am that was amusing. So Yousaf was ready to be leader and was nobodies puppet unlike Forbes. I take it serial loser Swinney and independent character (😂😂😂😂) was also more ready unlike Forbes. Remind me of all these elections that Yousaf and Swinney won as leader of the SNP.
DeleteYousaf and Swinney both Sturgeon puppets. Is that better than a neo liberal puppet?
Is Scotland independent - no. If you want Scotland to be independent you should be discontent with the SNP.
Anon at 10.44. Why are you not in charge of the SNP? Maybe because you are a clueless pompous nobody on an online forum? Forbes and Cherry are the only two remaining people of the calibre needed to rescue the SNP from the complete shambles it has become, and to persuade voters in Scotland that they can once again see competent effective left of centre policies implemented in Scotland. Less talk about toilets. More talk about the benefits of an Independent Scotland. Swinney is a good administrator, not a leader. None of the Sturgeon clique should be allowed anywhere near leadership roles. Leadership election now.
DeleteMaybe someday IfS why tell us how Scottish independence will be achieved.
DeleteAnon@ 6.14pm you can’t even compose a sentence. Go back to school.
DeleteIt should be understood that a plebiscite election is not just a vote. A mandate would mean a declaration of Independence in defiance of the English Parliament and English law. Lets forget about the 'democratic instincts of the English Parliament', its an oligarchic institution and it does'nt have any.
ReplyDeleteThis would mean a prolonged and multi-level conflict with them and if there is not the will to match them at every escalation its best not to confront them in the first place.
You would say that KC@11.46am as you are a unionist lickspittle.
DeleteI didn't support John for the leadership back in 2000 when Alex Salmond decided he was off to Westminster. My reason for that at the time was because I thought that Alex Neill would have had a more 'campaigning' approach for the party as a leader. At the moment I support John's leadership but the SNP has to refind its zeal as a campaigning party once more. Ever since 2014 it's as if we've retreated from the streets other than at election times. A prime example of this was the closure of Grangemouth. Back in the day we'd have been on the streets campaigning against it. Grangemouth was allowed to close with barely a whimper. If I get the chance to speak at the forthcoming National Council I will ge making my thoughts known. John Swinney is as pro-independence as anyone but he needs to be assisted by our ordinary members to get the party onto the streets once more.
ReplyDeleteThe self-declared 'vips' in the 'movement' want ordinary members to join their efforts to get rid of John and want their own favoured choice into replace him. Any ordinary members who support John or anyone else the movement wants removed, just get insulted on the grand scale by movement influencers. The influencers in the alleged 'independence' movement will get what they want, this is just a re-run of getting rid of SNP leaders they don't want and it seems that what they say goes these days. They appear to be excellent choreographers at achieving what they want and don't seem to mind at all when their chums in the Scottish Labour Party throw an anti Swinney/SNP barb for Starmer to punt in the House of Commons, as happened today. That takes an 'understanding' to already be in place does it not? Now when did that happen before...mm..thinks!
ReplyDeleteAnyone fancy decoding what this post @ 2.27pm is all about?
DeleteI'm fairly sure @2.27 is advocating a return of the Bute House agreement but this time with Lorna Slater, Scotland's most talented politician, taking centre stage on her own.
DeleteThe National story better than any satire. John Swinney is backed 100% by Mairi McAllan. (The SNP's indescribably dull leader fully endorsed by arguably it's most vapid MSP).
ReplyDeleteTalk about damning with faint praise.
As a bonus, the lead BTL comment is from the SNP's own Comical Ali with his usual 'we are nanoseconds from independence, the Unionists have never been more afraid' tripe that infests the WGD echo chamber. There was a time when I admired Skier for his measured, incisive indy commentary but his credibility has long been in the bin.
Did he donate to the party this morning, by any chance?
DeleteHe was probably too busy inspecting the public loos somewhere to make sure they are unisex loos. No doubt he is writing a book on the subject. You will be able to get a free copy to go along with the Sturgeon book.
DeleteSwinney should go as long as he isn't replaced by a Useless Woke MI5 Plant.
ReplyDelete